yeah yeah, that's what the Navy has said or written for the consumption of the public and the Congress.
But something has to give when you're size/weight limited, which the Air Force NGAD is not.
You keep saying "size/weight limited" but I'm going to remind you that the
carrier limits aren't that bad. Elevator limits are 85x52 or so, and you could hang nearly half the length of an aircraft over the water if you needed to.
The real limiting factors are the arresting gear and catapults, ~90klbs max MTOW and ~55klbs max landing weight. That landing limit comes from the discussions about whether a Tomcat could recover on a carrier with 6x Phoenix missiles.
Reverse-engineering from the max landing weight I assumed 12klbs of ordnance** (4x JASSM + 2-4x AMRAAM) to bring back plus 3000lbs of fuel, which brings us to an aircraft empty weight of 40,000lbs. That's
~4000lbs lighter than an F-14D's empty weight.
Fighters tend to have an MTOW of about double their empty weight, and that's been pretty consistent from clear back in F-4s. So MTOW of 80,000lbs. Guess what?
That's a little lighter than an F-22 and ~6000lbs heavier than an F-14D!
80k MTOW - 40k Empty - 12k payload = 28klbs of fuel.
That's about 2000lbs more fuel than an F-22 with drop tanks, and about 10,000lbs more than an F-35 or F-22 internal capacity.
** Why so much ordnance?
I started with the ATA main bay requirements, which was "bay(s) sized around 2x AGM-84 and 2x GBU-15," then updated to current weapons. AGM-84s have basically been replaced by AGM-158s, and GBU-15s have been replaced by JDAMs. As a side note, AGM-158s are about as wide as AARGM-ERs, both ~22" wide. So a weapons bay that could hold two of either with 5" of clearance is very nearly wide enough to hold 3x 2000lb JDAM.
End result of Scott's FAXX prediction
Empty Weight: 40,000lbs
Max Takeoff: 80,000lbs
Payload: ~12,000lbs in 2 tandem main bays and 2 side bays
Fuel load: 28,000lbs internal
So it's not an F-111. In fact, it's closer to an F-14, but one that was optimized around strike loads instead of LRAAMs. Not that you couldn't pack 4x AIM-174Bs into the main bays dimensionally, but the bay
width was determined by AGM-158s and AARGM-ERs. AIM-174Bs determined the bay length, ~16.5ft.
Critical dimension for that prediction is empty weight. If empty weight starts creeping up, you lose fuel at recovery, and you don't want to get less than about 2000lbs of fuel at recovery or you're going to have to drop some ordnance.