UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) Speculation & Discussions

The RAF used to have about 300 V bombers, which is as good a wild ass guess as anything
 
Let's see we have currently 111 Typhoons currently in service according to a Google search, so I would think that an optimistic purchase would be at least 150 to 200 GCAP/Tempests.
 
red admiral said:
The RAF used to have about 300 V bombers, which is as good a wild ass guess as anything
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Never simultaneously in service as the Valiants were retired or repurposed to support roles (tanking, reconnaissance or electronic warfare) as the Vulcan and Victor Mk 2s came into service. And later the same happened to Victor and Vulcan Mk1s as the last Vulcan Mk2s were delivered.

So the V bomber force peaked at ~150 actual bombers around 1962 (18 squadrons x ~8 aircraft plus reserves). @NOMISYRRUC may have exact numbers in one of his spreadsheets
 
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I do wonder whether the target of 138 F-35s will be replaced with additional GCAP fighters.

We won't see another British F-35 be delivered until the early 2030s, at which point GCAP will just be three or four years from fruition (according to current timelines).

The expected order for the second batch of F-35s is 27 aircraft: 12 F-35A and 15 F-35B. There is then a mystical additional order of F-35As, intended for the nuclear deterrent role, scheduled for the mid-2030s presumably.

So, there's a gap between the intended 138 F-35s, and the maybe 90-100 that have been spoken about. You could fill that disparity with additional Tempest.
 
Reuben James said:
I do wonder whether the target of 138 F-35s will be replaced with additional GCAP fighters.

We won't see another British F-35 be delivered until the early 2030s, at which point GCAP will just be three or four years from fruition (according to current timelines).

The expected order for the second batch of F-35s is 27 aircraft: 12 F-35A and 15 F-35B. There is then a mystical additional order of F-35As, intended for the nuclear deterrent role, scheduled for the mid-2030s presumably.

So, there's a gap between the intended 138 F-35s, and the maybe 90-100 that have been spoken about. You could fill that disparity with additional Tempest.
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That's an optimistic take.
Given how British defense procurement works, 138 will be the entire F-35(B, A) and Tempest procurement over the entire lifecycle of both platforms.
 
timmymagic said:
Gareth jennings also reports that with the full prototype flying in 2030 an initial version of GCAP could be available in 2032...
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This proposed GCAP timeline seems extremely aggressive... there's already high concurrency risk during the detailed design/prototype build phase (in blue), but targeting a 2032 service entry would create even higher concurrency risk during the flight testing and production build phase (in red).
  • Pre-2023: Requirements definition
  • 2023-2025: Technology development and mobilization
  • 2026-2027: Concept design
  • 2028-2029: Detailed design
  • 2029-2030 (?): Prototype build
  • Late 2030: Prototype first flight
  • 2031-2034 (?): Flight testing (3-5 prototypes required)
  • 2031-2032 (?): First (pre-?) production build
  • Late 2032: First (pre-?) production first flight

Looking at KF-21 (which was a very rapid flight testing program) it took 4 years from prototype first flight to first production aircraft first flight, and that was with a proven engine and no complicated weapons bay integration tests... Even 2035 wouldn't give much time to mature engines and software.
 
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H_K said:
This proposed GCAP timeline seems extremely aggressive... there's already high concurrency risk during the detailed design/prototype build phase (in blue), but targeting a 2032 service entry would create even higher concurrency risk during the flight testing and production build phase (in red).
  • Pre-2023: Requirements definition
  • 2023-2025: Technology development and mobilization
  • 2026-2027: Concept design
  • 2028-2029: Detailed design
  • 2029-2030 (?): Prototype build
  • Late 2030: Prototype first flight
  • 2031-2034 (?): Flight testing (3-5 prototypes required)
  • 2031-2032 (?): First (pre-?) production build
  • Late 2032: First (pre-?) production first flight

Looking at KF-21 (which was a very rapid flight testing program) it took 4 years from prototype first flight to first production aircraft first flight, and there that was with a proven engine and no complicated weapons bay integration tests... Even 2035 wouldn't give much time to mature engines and software.
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And this is likely why more users matter. With a larger money pool they can scale it mutch faster up after the first prototype
 
Hmmm....
Talk has been of GCAP eating up late F-35 orders from virtually the get go. So it's not impossible.

Chief problem there is not FAA, as they can always get assigned ownership and budget (RAF screeming blue murder in the process) of F-35B.
But rather that inclusion of F-35A with B61 for tactical nuclear use, sets the RAF on the course to have that rather than earlier blocks of GCAP.
In fact this potentially pitches late blocks of F-35A against GCAP. It's the poor F-35 availability rates and lack of UK weapons integration will swing this back to GCAP.
Perhaps that's why there's been movement on Block 4 with Spear III and Meteor. Directly to get F-35 into position to keep UK orders flowing.

IMO this is part of why F-35A is a bad choice at this point and in turn this lack of domestic tactical nuclear weapon is the root of these bad choices. Which roots back to AWE being under resourced.

However......if you think probability of war is coming from 2030.... acceleration of GCAP AND F-35A starts to make sense.

Conveniently post 2029UK general election and about the time a decision late 2029 could be realised in the budget.
 
This is where dropping upgraded production of Meteor and Storm Shadow for FAS and Stratus Lo, suggests the swing to GCAP is well underway.

I'd say the chief impediment to cutting late F-35 orders is the Nuclear Weapon mission. Meaning this could be offered up as a financial cut to appease backbench MPs, the Treasury or a negotiated treaty cut. Such as with Russia....

But considering that ELSA, PrSM and DPS look like being realised in more affordable timescales alleviates the demand for the tactical nuclear mission and opens up a backdoor for the mission if need be, by land forces, which can be made more secure.

And these options don't tread on GCAP or it's mission set. If anything GCAP's sensor capabilities can feed back to such Army targeting. Meaning the Army can be brought onboard GCAP support.

Speculation maybe. But quite visible issues of services, and state national interests. Which all goes to show why GCAP has come about, from a strategic point of view.
 
Money doesn't solve all problems and if you have to re-negotiate workshares and stuff it's going to take some time! I wouldn't count on an accelerated programme, irrespective of how much more money could be added. I'd rather inclined to believe it will induce delays. Unless the German side would decide to omit a significant share, which would be a complete u-turn to what has been boldly stated just two months ago.
 
kqcke for you said:
And this is likely why more users matter. With a larger money pool they can scale it mutch faster up after the first prototype
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More users means re-negotiating the entire development path... And if by "more users" you actually meant "Airbus" (AKA Germany and Spain) that would only mean an awful lot of delays.
 
Same thoughts here joshshosh, but if they can pull it off within that timeframe and there are no Typhoon style delays, then I would think that it could be in service by then.
 
Sintra said:
More users means re-negotiating the entire development path... And if by "more users" you actually meant "Airbus" (AKA Germany and Spain) that would only mean an awful lot of delays.
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I mean more users that are willing to invest money into the development pool which, if the current budget is enough for the development costs, then are to be used to accelerate it like the prototype production for example.
 
I would let both Germany and Saudi Arabia join if that is the case kqcke for you.
 
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/busine...s/mitsubishi-electric-fighter-jet-production/

So, we now have production buildings being built.

Add that on to the funding, general good relations between everyone, Canada on board, and a soon to be seen demonstrator. Well, it's starting to look like Christmas.

With rumours now of pushing for a 2033 first off the production line, we could be seeing GCAP vs F47, with the F47 without an engine.

Interesting times for GCAP.
 
Just seen on the internet somewhere that Singapore is interested in joining Edgewing/GCAP which will be good if it finally happens with this amount of interest in GCAP then it will be good for the long term.
 
So, with Canada now an observer and Poland almost accidentally proclaiming they will be next, what sort of work will both expect back if they become industrial partners?


It doesn't mean core GCAP work, but it most certainly could be they look into LEO integration. The UK looks set to unveil LEO-Comms and will ditch OneWeb by release, mainly due to the sovereign strategy and EutelSat basically wanting to migrate people to Iris2 by 2035.

So would a polish LEO system be a step. Their own cloud, that feeds the larger GCAP cloud.

It would be a start, and possibly match Canada with their lightspeed integration.
 
Poland having licensed Brimstone and CAMM, may well be looking at the future GCAP weapons development as both a contribution and the benefit of being a customer.

In other words, making the weapons and exporting to other GCAP users.

And then.....I had to scroll up to read the title of this thread just to be sure before I post.
And then reread because the way the title is set out.
 
zen said:
Poland having licensed Brimstone and CAMM, may well be looking at the future GCAP weapons development as both a contribution and the benefit of being a customer.

In other words, making the weapons and exporting to other GCAP users.

And then.....I had to scroll up to read the title of this thread just to be sure before I post.
And then reread because the way the title is set out.
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Yes, GCAP is moving from just the 3, we now have Canada who oddly just invest millions more into their LEO, just as they become an Observer. We have Poland who oddly, invested to be a gateway in Iris2 with £500 million, and then are seen at Canada's signing ceremony, before that in downing street signing defence cooperation and space documents, and their minister is telling the Polish media to wait and see on GCAP, with a winking smiley. ;)

Everyone's looking at Germany, while Poland are at the side entrance with some flowers.

And of course around all of that, is BAE courting the government to kick airbus out of the chain and build the entire LEO SATCOM/ISR for the UK also (They have poached the entire SSTL top people).

Sounds like GCAP + LEO are on course for the same launch party if you ask me.
 
vikmto999 said:
... we now have Canada who oddly just invest millions more into their LEO, just as they become an Observer...
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Just for clarity, does that refer to Calian's C5ISRT integration contract or Telesat's Lightspeed satellite network?
 
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New Japanese budget request

($1.465 billion) GIGO for joint airframe, engine, and avionics design. Also testing of unspecified technologies unique to Japan (probably has to do with the C-2 FTB)

($60 million) Full scale R&D of CCAs with a focus on electronic warfare capabilities.
 
WatcherZero said:
India has joined GCAP as a 'Dialogue Partner' its like Observer status but doesn't grant access to classified technical information.
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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...obal-collaborations/articleshow/133588379.cms
No official news, may be a time zone difference but until official sources say this, it sounds like India is trying to get more out of France with these unofficial statements so far.


Still discussion partner sounds like "got tickets for the next air show tent" rather than anything close to observer.
 
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From what I recall of other international defence projects the Indian press has a rather bad habit of saying that someone is is buying something of theirs/they're joining up with them. Assuming this isn't a case of that the last major example was Tejas and Malaysia, iirc.
 
vikmto999 said:
No official news, may be a time zone difference but until official sources say this, it sounds like India is trying to get more out of France with these unofficial statements so far.
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Agreed, India would be better served partnering with France and/or licensed local production for carrier aircraft.

Not that India couldn't use GCAP, but they're buying Su57s (iirc) for the land based portion of their fleet and really only need to replace their Rafales.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Agreed, India would be better served partnering with France and/or licensed local production for carrier aircraft.

Not that India couldn't use GCAP, but they're buying Su57s (iirc) for the land based portion of their fleet and really only need to replace their Rafales.
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Let them buy the whole bunch at least...Rafales are here for decades to come, even the earliest batch will fly into 2050s.
 
Ainen said:
Let them buy the whole bunch at least...Rafales are here for decades to come, even the earliest batch will fly into 2050s.
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I'm not sure if a Rafale will still be a viable fighter in 2040. Not when China will be flying all 5th and 6th generation aircraft.
 
Scott Kenny said:
I'm not sure if a Rafale will still be a viable fighter in 2040. Not when China will be flying all 5th and 6th generation aircraft.
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I think it'll have to be, as there's no alternative for the air forces in question. India is approaching half it's sanctioned squadron strength, do something with Rafales and 1/4th is not our of question.

Plus in any case, it appears that adaptability and carrying capacity of 4th gen won't be going anywhere. It already happened with shaheds, and I'm sure it'll happen again down the line.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Not that India couldn't use GCAP, but they're buying Su57s (iirc) for the land based portion of their fleet and really only need to replace their Rafales.
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FGFA (the Indian Su-57) died back in 2018. The Russians proposed it again last year, but there's nothing remotely firm as yet, the Indians say their next-gen fighter is AMCA.
 
DWG said:
FGFA (the Indian Su-57) died back in 2018. The Russians proposed it again last year, but there's nothing remotely firm as yet, the Indians say their next-gen fighter is AMCA.
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Press F to doubt.

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