UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) Speculation & Discussions

kqcke for you said:
Tought this is already solved within Edgewings
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Say Germany joins the project, and makes all the centre fuselages (as it does for Eurofighter). Now Edgewing sells GCAP to someone the German government objects to. Airbus Defence and Space is perfectly happy to do the work, but the German government decides it isn't going to go along with the other partners and is going to unilaterally prevent the sale. And all it has to do to achieve that is refuse an export license for the centre fuselages. No centre fuselage, no plane. No plane, no sale.

Edgewing is irrelevant to the decision if the German government decides to be awkward at governmental level. GIGO is supposed to be the intergovernmental clearing house for this kind of thing, but Germany has a long history of making unilateral decisions that bring multilateral projects to a grinding halt.
 
LightningFan1959 said:
Taking Eurofighter reductions into account, assuming Germany does get in that means that at most they'll buy 84, with Tornado reductions about 81.
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I imagine the contract they would sign would hold them to it in some way, along with no veto for them to use.
 
DWG said:
Say Germany joins the project, and makes all the centre fuselages (as it does for Eurofighter). Now Edgewing sells GCAP to someone the German government objects to. Airbus Defence and Space is perfectly happy to do the work, but the German government decides it isn't going to go along with the other partners and is going to unilaterally prevent the sale. And all it has to do to achieve that is refuse an export license for the centre fuselages. No centre fuselage, no plane. No plane, no sale.
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Wasn't it already specified every Edgewing User builds there own jets? In that case this wouldn't apply
 
kqcke for you said:
Wasn't it already specified every Edgewing User builds there own jets? In that case this wouldn't apply
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Every Eurofighter nation builds their own jets, in terms of final assembly, but Germany builds all the centre fuselages, Italy builds all the port wings, etc. And then there's the component level, you're not going to have each nation building the air data computer, the undercarriage actuators, etc, you're going to get those from a single common supplier. Aircraft production is implicitly multinational, even if you say otherwise.
 
DWG said:
Every Eurofighter nation builds their own jets, in terms of final assembly, but Germany builds all the centre fuselages, Italy builds all the port wings, etc. And then there's the component level, you're not going to have each nation building the air data computer, the undercarriage actuators, etc, you're going to get those from a single common supplier. Aircraft production is implicitly multinational, even if you say otherwise.
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I mean for GCAP because i remember it being a topic here because if i remember it correctly exactly that this problem was intended to be fully avoided with everyone building there own planes
 
So in short the only export at best could block is its own..... Not the biggest danger i say
 
kqcke for you said:
So in short the only export at best could block is its own..... Not the biggest danger i say
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All they would need is to withhold a single critical German component. As @DWG said you’re not going to create 4 duplicate supply chains for every single part that goes into GCAP. Even dual sourcing would be inefficient and unlikely to cover every component…
 
H_K said:
All they would need is to withhold a single critical German component. As @DWG said you’re not going to create 4 duplicate supply chains for every single part that goes into GCAP. Even dual sourcing would be inefficient and unlikely to cover every component…
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And yet the official saying is that they will do it themself or at the very least between themself. As long as germany isnt taking over a major supply part that isn't covered anywhere else than there is no problem:)
 
This is why GIGO says that they have final say over a sale, not the countries. The whole GCAP agreement was written around having seen Germany fuck over a UK sale of Typhoon to someone Germany didn't like.
 
And I certainly do not want that to happen again to GCAP/Tempest Scott Kenny, if Germany starts throwing tantrums over potential exports they should be automatically kicked out of the program without warning.
 
Michael Schoellhorn, the head of Airbus’s Munich-based defence arm, said if Germany had enough influence over the programme and a share of the work, it could be tempted to join Britain in developing the new jets.
“What we’re ready to do is to join something or to build something where we have a significant portion of the work and the leadership. That’s currently being explored,” he said.
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Do these people never learn? Is this just politicking their MIC is doing to show that it tried to work with Intl. partners but that didn't work so a new national programme is for the best?
 
Better question is what will the GCAP countries do.

Afterall Airbus can say what they want, but even if germany follows this, the bigger question would be if they themself open that box of Pandora and if so why would they do that.

I think its best to wait and see. If they actualy want to follow trought with this then any development probaly needs to happen in relative near time to reduce the impact on the timeline
 
kqcke for you said:
Better question is what will the GCAP countries do. After all Airbus can say what they want, but even if germany follows this, the bigger question would be if they themself open that box of Pandora and if so why would they do that.
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Indeed, in addition to what happened with Germany blocking Eurofighter & Meteor for Saudi Arabia for 6 years, and more recently for Turkey... they also blocked C295 sales by Airbus Spain to UAE, Milan missile sales by MBDA to Qatar, Super Puma sales by Eurocopter France to Uzbekistan, MRAP vehicle sales by Nexter to Saudi Arabia etc. Often by blocking very small German components - a hydraulic assembly here, a sensor there, a propulsion or chassis component etc.

Has anything changed in Germany that would give the other GCAP countries confidence it won't happen again?
 
H_K said:
Indeed, in addition to what happened with Germany blocking Eurofighter & Meteor for Saudi Arabia for 6 years, and more recently for Turkey... they also blocked C295 sales by Airbus Spain to UAE, Milan missile sales by MBDA to Qatar, Super Puma sales by Eurocopter France to Uzbekistan, MRAP vehicle sales by Nexter to Saudi Arabia etc. Often by blocking very small German components - a hydraulic assembly here, a sensor there, a propulsion or chassis component etc.
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You know there is a common theme between them but i agree that witholding Sales to those nations is stupid because it doesn't actualy change anything
H_K said:
Has anything changed in Germany that would give the other GCAP countries confidence it won't happen again?
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Here me out (i know this sounds crazy) being able to build the plane themself? Even if that means all the capabilities are split between the 3 nations. Then if germany for example joins there workshare is only scaled at there own orders and only for them / doesn't replace the capabilities of the original 3.

Afterall sovereignty over the whole programm is a core value of the project....
 
Also A400M sales (Egypt, KSA, UAE)
"Several countries are interested in the A400M. Unfortunately, we have difficulty obtaining German export licenses on time," said Mr. Schoellhorn, in an interview with Reuters, on the sidelines of the Munich security conference, which has just ended. However, he did not specify the identity of potential customers…”
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Could germany (and Spain?) maybe only focus/lead the CCA and drones effort in GCAP ?
 
Titus K said:
Could germany (and Spain?) maybe only focus/lead the CCA and drones effort in GCAP ?
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Yes they could. Theres also the advantage that GCAP is from the beginning intended to be designed with nationalised systems. If the germans want a german radar then they have it. On there own dime of course
 
Would it not be better if the CCAs were put in amongst the main GCAP/Tempest programe? That would save a lot of problems since they could be designed at the same time and feed off each other technology speaking thus saving money in the longrun.
 
Titus K said:
Could germany (and Spain?) maybe only focus/lead the CCA and drones effort in GCAP ?
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Given that CCA and drones are clearly a strategic capability going forward I can't see any of the GCAP partners not wanting to develop their own national CCA, capabilities and industries...

Besides the GCAP structure already has those as national developments. Remember GCAP is not FCAS. It's developing a manned fighter...Italy, Japan and UK will develop their own CCA etc.Why wqould they change that?

If Germany wants to buy GCAP and develop their own CCA to operate exclusively alongside their own fleet I think everyone would be quite amenable....but they're not going to sign a new agreement to allow Germany/Spain etc. develop a CCA that all other GCAP members have to use by default...

Been saying for a while that the best Germany should hope for is licenced production, potentially with the ability to substitute their own components in for German Air Force service....but not for export elsewhere.

If Germany, Spain and Sweden together approached the GCAP consortium members and wanted to create a 'GCAP-lite', a single engined aircraft using existing GCAP components like the engine, that integrated well with 'GCAP-heavy' they might be welcomed... as long as the GCAP consortium members retained some control to prevent cannibalisation of their own sales...
 
timmymagic said:
Given that CCA and drones are clearly a strategic capability going forward I can't see any of the GCAP partners not wanting to develop their own national CCA, capabilities and industries...
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Its also a element where each nation can do it themself for most of it. That said one could develop a array of element that are standardised around GCAP to reduce cost
timmymagic said:
Besides the GCAP structure already has those as national developments. Remember GCAP is not FCAS. It's developing a manned fighter...Italy, Japan and UK will develop their own CCA etc.Why wqould they change that?
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One could make an extension and why? Costs for capabilities.
 
timmymagic said:
Given that CCA and drones are clearly a strategic capability going forward I can't see any of the GCAP partners not wanting to develop their own national CCA, capabilities and industries...
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Well, not like partners have lots of other strategic capabilities.
Single CCA model isn't an ecosystem; they'll have to share anyways.
 
H_K said:
Has anything changed in Germany that would give the other GCAP countries confidence it won't happen again?
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No, nothing has changed in Germany. But everything has changed in the GCAP agreement that one country in the partnership cannot block sales. I'd like to see what the penalty clause is in the agreement, though, because I am 100% positive that Germany will try to block export if they're allowed into GCAP.
 
timmymagic said:
I can't see any of the GCAP partners not wanting to develop their own national CCA
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Italy convinced the geographically close Baykar to acquire Piaggio, partner with Leonardo, and set up shop in Italy to sell TB-3, Akinci, and Kizilelma UCAVs (the latter is ultimately intended to become a proper autonomous fighter, but still capable of fulfilling CCA roles for now) both to Italy itself and to the wider European market...

This doesn't exactly sound like a country insisting on developing everything domestically from the ground up. More like one looking to induct a buttload of already proven/mature drones from a foreign manufacturer willing to integrate Italian payloads and manufacture them locally.
 
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Scott Kenny said:
No, nothing has changed in Germany. But everything has changed in the GCAP agreement that one country in the partnership cannot block sales. I'd like to see what the penalty clause is in the agreement, though, because I am 100% positive that Germany will try to block export if they're allowed into GCAP.
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Where does it say that in the GCAP treaty? And how enforceable is that in practice?

There is provision in Eurofighter as well but in practice its just too hard. Setting up multi-sourcing for everything isn't cost efficient.
 
red admiral said:
Where does it say that in the GCAP treaty? And how enforceable is that in practice?

There is provision in Eurofighter as well but in practice its just too hard. Setting up multi-sourcing for everything isn't cost efficient.
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Germany also got nailed contractually by the UK for not buying their full complement of Typhoon. IF Germany was allowed into GCAP as a partner (and they won't be) I'm sure the UK and Italy would ensure the contractual terms took into account for previous German behaviour on Typhoon and A400M...they'd be on the hook for the value of their full initial commitment...AND any export orders that they blocked...suspect that would calm German politicians meddling....
 
Guys can this please stop being the same thing over and over again. I mean it was already shown theres option and protective measures in place for it and one also can contractuly bind them trought that if they don't uphold point X/Y there open to be sued. Even if we ignore international courts like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) there still dozen of other ways how to deal with sutch an situation.

Edit:
And i mean specificely the same political clutter hindering that for example allways popped up in FCAS about who is the bad guy. Its not like that after the tenth time we reach any new conclusion.

Edit 2:
Deleting my Double that guess it was still a bit early
 
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kqcke for you said:
I mean it was already shown theres option and protective measures in place for it and one also can contractuly bind them trought that if they don't uphold point X/Y there open to be sued.
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I have yet to hear of a contractually binding clause preventing partners on international projects from not respecting their commitments. And even less of an international court or arbitration mechanism being used to punish the partner. Same goes for blocking exports... have there been any consequences in the past? AFAIK these issues have occurred repeatedly on Eurofighter, A400M, NH90 etc.

So I'd be interested if you can find any sources on court cases or contracts where partners have faced potential financial penalties...
 
H_K said:
I have yet to hear of a contractually binding clause preventing partners on international projects from not respecting their commitments.
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Yes this was rarely (if) ever used that said it doenst mean they don't exist / work.
H_K said:
And even less of an international court or arbitration mechanism being used to punish the partner.
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While not partners but we have seen similiar developments before. In case of Taiwan vs. Naval Group and Australia vs. Naval Group where arbitration clauses used and in former case the international commercial arbitration court was used. Also if i remember correctly all Eurofighter user are strictely bind to reach there workshare allocations. Either trought contracts or compensation.
Example:
"But the UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD), whose budget is already overstretched, can't pull out of Tranche 3 because the financial penalties are so harsh."
H_K said:
Same goes for blocking exports... have there been any consequences in the past? AFAIK these issues have occurred repeatedly on Eurofighter, A400M, NH90 etc.
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As with the stated article above one likely could include clauses where, if any of the user / companies, block an export there open for ruling.
H_K said:
So I'd be interested if you can find any sources on court cases or contracts where partners have faced potential financial penalties...
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I can't give you anything from GCAP/ Edgewing because the document that i found said either Consulting or isn't finalised.
 
From some of the interviews I see, and videos, I'm starting to think that GCAP will be more orchestrating drones and CCAs, than itself being the primary damage dealer.

That has got me thinking that we are going to be seeing a lot of power going in direct energy weapons for defensive purposes, rather than offensive.

Get to the area where your CCAs and drones are, direct them to the targets when you get there.

With all the power we hear will be on board, it makes sense to have LDEW and RFDEW. It seems more sense to have more defensive systems on board if you're sitting behind a drone wall.
 
Such a big bird will cost a lot.
How many of them the RAF will be able to purchase?
 
BonPlan2 said:
Such a big bird will cost a lot.
How many of them the RAF will be able to purchase?
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F-35 (and quite possibly the updated part of the Typhoon one) fleet will remain, though. Much like Japan and Italy, they can afford only a partial fleet update.
If it's a big and expensive combat enabler - you may treat it as one; the situation is rather different from France.
 
LightningFan1959 said:
The intention is 150 per partner initially, I believe.
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Intention is very different from actual amount bought isnt it. From everything that Ive read in this forum the UK MoD is exceptionally reluctant to spend any sort of money even in extremely critical areas.

The GCAP isnt going to be cheap...
 
BonPlan2 said:
Such a big bird will cost a lot.
How many of them the RAF will be able to purchase?
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It could very easily end up like Boxer, with a big UK investment at the beginning followed by dropping out of the program because the Treasury got their heads wrapped around an "alternative" that supposedly costs a few million pounds less but never actually works out, and the UK ends up buying 50 airframes from the Italian production line fifteen years after FOC in Japan.
 

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