The Race to Mars....will it happen?

[GTX]

It's not simply a case of charging off blindly. Just look at the likes of the Mars Society:

The Mars Society

 

[edwest4]

During the early 1960s, I bought every book on rockets and astronauts I could. (OK, I had no money so my Mum had to buy them for me.)

 

[T. A. Gardner]

I share your opinion, but in future space travel there will be no room for chance, nor for adventure, nor for dangerous explorations. It is already too expensive to rescue all the idiots who take unnecessary risks without sufficient preparation, experience or equipment, in Tibet, in the Sahara or in the Amazon, but it is an acceptable expense to keep alive the interest in nature and the business of exotic travel.

That's only true up to the point that the cost comes down and private groups and individuals can get involved. The second it isn't the government doing space travel, and the location of that travel is out of government control, is the second it can be risky and dangerous. We currently live in a world where most of the leading nations have become risk adverse about everything. That has made doing many things that are risky or contain a degree of danger very or even prohibitively expensive. Once those legal obstacles are eliminated, people will be back to taking insane risks and doing crazy dangerous stuff, and that means space exploration where the principles paying cannot be sued or charged by some government for doing it.

 

[martinbayer]

So, seriously can anyone answer my question? Who has the heavylift launch capacity for even the most austere Mars mission? Is it not a monumental mass of equipment and materiel to heave out of our gravity well and safely deposit in another? Is it not an endeavour still decades away from fruition, if at all?

@sferrin @martinbayer any input?

Give Musk a few more years. Personal quirks aside, what he has achieved so far in his life is truly astonishing, and Mars is firmly in his crosshairs.

 

[Justo Miranda]

I share your opinion, but in future space travel there will be no room for chance, nor for adventure, nor for dangerous explorations. It is already too expensive to rescue all the idiots who take unnecessary risks without sufficient preparation, experience or equipment, in Tibet, in the Sahara or in the Amazon, but it is an acceptable expense to keep alive the interest in nature and the business of exotic travel.

That's only true up to the point that the cost comes down and private groups and individuals can get involved. The second it isn't the government doing space travel, and the location of that travel is out of government control, is the second it can be risky and dangerous. We currently live in a world where most of the leading nations have become risk adverse about everything. That has made doing many things that are risky or contain a degree of danger very or even prohibitively expensive. Once those legal obstacles are eliminated, people will be back to taking insane risks and doing crazy dangerous stuff, and that means space exploration where the principles paying cannot be sued or charged by some government for doing it.

I can imagine a millionaire financing a trip to Mars for prestige reasons, instead of competing with others by buying yachts or Picassos, but the situation is very different from the airplane races of the 30s that made great strides in aerodynamics taking risks for money. Space travel is much more complicated and infinitely more expensive, even without security measures. I can imagine what would have happened if the Apollo 13 accident had happened with Apollo 8. I can imagine what would happen to the Martian crew if the large corporation goes bankrupt financially during the voyage. That can't happen with a government that can fix any problem by raising taxes.

 

[Foo Fighter]

It will possibly come down to the particular 'cheddar' at the end of the rainbow is. Prestige will not attract private money but cold hard profit (Cheddar, a shameless Avatar quote).

 

[Deleted member 2278]

So, seriously can anyone answer my question? Who has the heavylift launch capacity for even the most austere Mars mission? Is it not a monumental mass of equipment and materiel to heave out of our gravity well and safely deposit in another? Is it not an endeavour still decades away from fruition, if at all?

@sferrin @martinbayer any input?

Give Musk a few more years. Personal quirks aside, what he has achieved so far in his life is truly astonishing, and Mars is firmly in his crosshairs.

I think the timeframe is what I'm mostly falling foul of here. How many years is a few more years? The idea that starship will be ready for the main event in 2026 makes I laugh. Add anything up to another decade and I probably wouldn't be laughing.

 

[dan_inbox]

The only thing that will get manned deep space exploration up and running is solid incontrovertible evidence of life.

Sorry to rain on lofty views and ideals, but IMO in our capitalist world what will get funding is an investors' perspective for profits.

Whether that includes con men, delusion or fads, is not relevant. It just is life ...

 

[muttly]

If the race to Mars happens or not, I feel it will be a waste of time
and resources. But that's just me.

 

[publiusr]

An all hypergolic FLEM type mission with each major pad employed might do the trick. The old Mars One Crew Manual might be a good starting point.