The Race to Mars....will it happen?

[sferrin]

In my opinion, spaceflight by amateurs in search of publicity can only end with the bad publicity of several dead astronauts, that will delay true space science for decades.

Everybody was amateurs at one point.

 

[edwest4]

I have always believed that Kennedy´s space program was a mistake and that the Dyna Soar was the right way to do things.

Dynasoar was not viable

Dyna-Soar was a very useful project, but unmanned systems were coming into use.

 

[GTX]

In my opinion, spaceflight by amateurs in search of publicity can only end with the bad publicity of several dead astronauts, that will delay true space science for decades.

That won't stop people. Even if there are disasters people will still be willing to go.

 

[Byeman]

I have always believed that Kennedy´s space program was a mistake and that the Dyna Soar was the right way to do things.

Dynasoar was not viable

Dyna-Soar was a very useful project, but unmanned systems were coming into use.

Not at all. too small, too dirty, too noisy . It used a H2/O2 APU for power that was constantly running. There would have been vibrations and water vapor. It would have be poor reconn platform.

 

[uk 75]

Mars is not suitable for human habitation. This basic fact did not become clear until probes explored the planet.
We have a habitable planet and it is the only one we know of at present.
If we were to discover a habitable planet reachable by feasible technology then I think the urge to send humans there would become irresistible .
Mars is not that planet unless we decide we want to redesign it to meet our needs.

 

[edwest4]

I have always believed that Kennedy´s space program was a mistake and that the Dyna Soar was the right way to do things.

Dynasoar was not viable

Dyna-Soar was a very useful project, but unmanned systems were coming into use.

Not at all. too small, too dirty, too noisy . It used a H2/O2 APU for power that was constantly running. There would have been vibrations and water vapor. It would have be poor reconn platform.

Astronauts had been selected. The mission goals were ambitious but doable.

 

[edwest4]

Mars is not suitable for human habitation. This basic fact did not become clear until probes explored the planet.
We have a habitable planet and it is the only one we know of at present.
If we were to discover a habitable planet reachable by feasible technology then I think the urge to send humans there would become irresistible .
Mars is not that planet unless we decide we want to redesign it to meet our needs.

Mars has liquid water about a mile below the surface. A remote drilling station could be sent, ready to start operating. Human habitation would likely be underground or in suitable caves, which might include inflatable living quarters. Some water is just a foot or so below the surface as water ice. It could be dug up easily and transported for melting and filtering. An underground housing network could be built.

The best temperatures are at the equator.

 

[edwest4]

Mars Dune Alpha:

Peek inside NASA’s starchitect-designed condo for Mars

Mars Dune Alpha is touted to be "the highest-fidelity simulated habitat ever constructed" for living in the red planet.

qz.com

 

[Rhinocrates]

Mars Dune Alpha:

Peek inside NASA’s starchitect-designed condo for Mars

Mars Dune Alpha is touted to be "the highest-fidelity simulated habitat ever constructed" for living in the red planet.

qz.com

FWIW, 'starchitect' is not a silly name for space architect, it's a silly name for a celebrity architect, the sort that give TED talks or have documentaries made about them - Norman Foster, Frank Gehry, Rem Koolhaas and Bjarke Ingels. Frank Lloyd Wright would have been called one in his day.

Here's Ingel's TED Talk:

TED Talk: Bjarke Ingels Explores Living and Building on Mars

Bjarke Ingels Group has been working on the Mars Science City project after the United Arab Emirates announced the initiative in 2017.

www.archdaily.com

 

[skyblue]

But that won't satisfy the human need to be there in person.

That's what they do in all the Alien movies and all those guys end badly, it's preferable to send robots to dangerous places, heroes are no longer needed.

Movies are literally fiction and shouldn't inform reality. That being said, I do feel that with the advent of rapidly improving AI, increasingly the reasons why we need to send up squishy humans are for mere sentimental purposes. Eventually in several decades, close or past the singularity we would merge with AI anyways and the issue will be moot.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

The first thing that would have to be done is shield the planet from solar wind. This is stripping off any atmosphere that forms almost entirely. There have been several proposals for how to do this. For example, putting a magnetic dipole at Lagrange point 1 (L1) with a strength of about 2 tesla / 20,000 gauss. This would act to move solar radiation around the planet shielding the atmosphere from being stripped. Some estimates are that within a decade Mars would have an atmosphere half as dense as Earth's. That's a very good and pretty quick start. It could be done remotely too.

 

[edwest4]

You'd be surprised at the number of science fiction writers that have been consulted by the military and space agencies. Imagination is what separates humans from so-called AI. Imagination that sees things that don't yet exist and builds them. And imagination that does not see problems as obstacles but as problems that can be solved by applying more imagination.

The term AI is fiction. That it exists in some small capacity is only because of human beings.

 

[royabulgaf]

The only thing that will get manned deep space exploration up and running is solid incontrovertible evidence of life. Look at all the excitement over evidence of possible liquid water in some Jovian or Saturnian moons. Once Musk or Bezos runs out of money or one of their thrill rides explodes that's the ball game.

 

[GTX]

The only thing that will get manned deep space exploration up and running is solid incontrovertible evidence of life. Look at all the excitement over evidence of possible liquid water in some Jovian or Saturnian moons. Once Musk or Bezos runs out of money or one of their thrill rides explodes that's the ball game.

I think you will be proven wrong there.

 

[edwest4]

There is a long history of test pilots who risked their lives, and some died, on the way to solving an urgent problem in aviation. There were pilots who died in early production versions of aircraft because of certain flaws or, in some cases, pilot error. Space is a much bigger problem but human ingenuity combined with those willing to take the risk, will keep the space program going forward. There is no particular urgency about going to Mars, only arguments for and against. The same applies to the Moon but there the issue is getting humans to survive there before going further. It appears that the space program is at a similar stage when compared to ocean voyages in large ships. The problem is the space environment is far more hostile. In any case, the desire to explore, advance human knowledge, and continue on will be the driver.

Bacteria on Mars? Lichen? Maybe. But that's not the primary thing. The primary is: Can we find and obtain enough water followed by, can we grow anything there?

 

[Justo Miranda]

So far, science has failed in its search for extraterrestrial life.

The space probes sent to Venus in 1967 and 1970 found that the temperature on the planet's surface is that of molten lead, atmospheric pressure equals that found a kilometer deep under the ocean, it rains sulfuric acid, and its volcanic activity is the largest in the entire Solar System.

Venus is one of the most hostile places known. In September 2020, the ALMA radio telescope detected phosphine (PH3) in the upper atmosphere. Related studies indicated a plausible amount of life, but the PH3 also can be generated by geological process.

Space probes sent to the Moon in 1976, 1994 and 2005 detected frozen water from comet impacts in the shadowed areas of the North and South poles. The atmosphere of the Moon is practically non-existent, with only a very scant presence of gases and surface temperatures ranging from 122 to -232 ºC. The Moon lacks a magnetic field able to protect it from solar flares and galactic cosmic rays that would be capable of sterilizing its surface from any known life form.

Mars also lacks magnetic field, and its atmosphere is 100 times thinner than ours. Space probes have found frozen water beneath the surface but not even a bacterium in the forty-five years they have been trying. There are no Martians, the first flying saucer to land on Mars in 1976 was made in California.

The search for extraterrestrial life is used as a powerful argument for funding new research projects on extremophile organisms and planetary atmospheres, and for searching amino acids and organic matter in the interstellar dust clouds.

Some scientists imagine that there may be liquid water under the 100 km thick ice sheet covering the surface of Europa, the satellite of Jupiter. They are even talking about exploring this likely underwater ocean using submarine robots.

No one knows how to drill that ice sheet, without it being immediately refrozen, nor how to build a submarine capable of withstanding water pressure at 100 km deep, nor how to communicate with it to obtain data, nor how to transport it, along with the drilling machinery, through 660,000,000 km. But if they would do know, they can try again with the 800 km thickness of the ice crust that covers Ganymede.

At 1,275,000,000 km from Earth, in the outer Solar System, the methane is in a liquid state and in 2005 it was discovered to form super-cold oceans on the surface of Titan, the satellite of Saturn. As with Venus phosphine, Titan methane could have both a biological and a geological origin. Ultraviolet radiation from the Sun destroys it, albeit at a slower rate than on the Earth. Scientists have calculated that if there was no repositioning mechanism, the methane would have completely disappeared in a period between 10 and 100 million years, noticeably short in geological terms.

 

[edwest4]

Water on Mars.

NASA's Treasure Map for Water Ice on Mars - NASA

NASA has big plans for returning astronauts to the Moon in 2024, a stepping stone on the path to sending humans to Mars. But where should the first people on

www.nasa.gov

 

[Byeman]

I have always believed that Kennedy´s space program was a mistake and that the Dyna Soar was the right way to do things.

Dynasoar was not viable

Dyna-Soar was a very useful project, but unmanned systems were coming into use.

Not at all. too small, too dirty, too noisy . It used a H2/O2 APU for power that was constantly running. There would have been vibrations and water vapor. It would have be poor reconn platform.

Astronauts had been selected. The mission goals were ambitious but doable.

Wrong. It wasn't useful and had no military utility. That is why it was canceled. It was too expensive. The mission "goals" were not to be a just a test vehicle and fly into space and return. It needed to do more than that and it couldn't.

The unmanned systems didn't need wings either.

The fact that astronauts were selected has no bearing on the matter. MOL has astronaut selected too.

 

[In_A_Dream]

China & the US will engage in a Space Race to put the first human on Mars.

Go Nationalism!

 

[sferrin]

China & the US SpaceX will engage in a Space Race to put the first human on Mars.

Go Nationalism!

Fixed for accuracy.

 

[royabulgaf]

The only thing that will get manned deep space exploration up and running is solid incontrovertible evidence of life. Look at all the excitement over evidence of possible liquid water in some Jovian or Saturnian moons. Once Musk or Bezos runs out of money or one of their thrill rides explodes that's the ball game.

I think you will be proven wrong there.

I hope so, but manned deep space exploration will be so expensive. Maybe two orders of magnitude past Apollo.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

The amount of time it has taken certain persons to get to the sub-orbital joyride stage of their "programme", the idea they will progress sufficiently to land a marmoset safely on Mars in their lifetimes is dubious. A serious dose of realism is needed in some circles. Let's try for a manned lunar orbital return first perhaps? You know, crawl before you can jetski.

 

[sferrin]

The amount of time it has taken certain persons to get to the sub-orbital joyride stage of their "programme", the idea they will progress sufficiently to land a marmoset safely on Mars in their lifetimes is dubious. A serious dose of realism is needed in some circles. Let's try for a manned lunar orbital return first perhaps? You know, crawl before you can jetski.

Who's flying people sub-orbital who is also trying to get to Mars?

 

[Deleted member 2278]

The amount of time it has taken certain persons to get to the sub-orbital joyride stage of their "programme", the idea they will progress sufficiently to land a marmoset safely on Mars in their lifetimes is dubious. A serious dose of realism is needed in some circles. Let's try for a manned lunar orbital return first perhaps? You know, crawl before you can jetski.

Who's flying people sub-orbital who is also trying to get to Mars?

Musky Bezel? Do I care? My point is does anyone have the lift capacity to put, say a years worth of food, water (or a water-recyc-sys, nice!), oxygen (the containers weigh a lot you know), a sandstorm-proof shelter, a nice big selfie-stick and oh yes, a human on Mars? With the first human-rated lander that's had to work as advertized months after launch? Assuming enough supplies to get them there in the first place, of course. Let alone enough for multiple humans. Cos that's a biiig rocket. I must have missed the press release.

There is a monumental hill to climb. The biggest in history in fact! Someone tweeting some intentions and doing some local featherweight lifting isn't going to cut it.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

Hell, it will take one Falcon Heavy to land all the antibiotics and aspirin they'd need. I guess they can eject their nail clippings en-route.

 

[sferrin]

The amount of time it has taken certain persons to get to the sub-orbital joyride stage of their "programme", the idea they will progress sufficiently to land a marmoset safely on Mars in their lifetimes is dubious. A serious dose of realism is needed in some circles. Let's try for a manned lunar orbital return first perhaps? You know, crawl before you can jetski.

Who's flying people sub-orbital who is also trying to get to Mars?

Musky Bezel? Do I care? My point is does anyone have the lift capacity to put, say a years worth of food, water (or a water-recyc-sys, nice!), oxygen (the containers weigh a lot you know), a sandstorm-proof shelter, a nice big selfie-stick and oh yes, a human on Mars? With the first human-rated lander that's had to work as advertized months after launch? Assuming enough supplies to get them there in the first place, of course. Let alone enough for multiple humans. Cos that's a biiig rocket. I must have missed the press release.

There is a monumental hill to climb. The biggest in history in fact! Someone tweeting some intentions and doing some local featherweight lifting isn't going to cut it.

A nice, sane, rationally thought out reply. Thank the Lords of Kobol for the ignore button.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

What's insane about a healthy appreciation of the fundamentals of a gravity well? This isn't the first of your posts to have erred on the side of insulting, without actually offering anything thoughtful in response. Please, ignore away!

 

[tequilashooter]

Guess faster travel than chemical rockets would be needed for lesser supplies if the stay is to be short. Let everyone else bet on China and Space X(US).

 

[Justo Miranda]

There is not and will not be a race for Mars between the US and China, both countries have enormous economic, social and structural problems that do not allow them to start this type of adventure to obtain prestige or world leadership. Both will be fortunate if they manage to maintain stability over the next five years, for the good of the world.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

So, seriously can anyone answer my question? Who has the heavylift launch capacity for even the most austere Mars mission? Is it not a monumental mass of equipment and materiel to heave out of our gravity well and safely deposit in another? Is it not an endeavour still decades away from fruition, if at all?

@sferrin @martinbayer any input?

 

[In_A_Dream]

There is not and will not be a race for Mars between the US and China, both countries have enormous economic, social and structural problems that do not allow them to start this type of adventure to obtain prestige or world leadership. Both will be fortunate if they manage to maintain stability over the next five years, for the good of the world.

Every year for the last 30+ years: "China is going to collapse because of X, Y, & Z"

The US isn't going anywhere either.

So, seriously can anyone answer my question? Who has the heavylift launch capacity for even the most austere Mars mission? Is it not a monumental mass of equipment and materiel to heave out of our gravity well and safely deposit in another? Is it not an endeavour still decades away from fruition, if at all?

@sferrin @martinbayer any input?

Maybe some DOD contractors have something tied up in R&D that would make it easier. Remember there are two worlds.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

Before any people are transported to Mars, some number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.

Taken from a SpaceX Mars article. Lolololol! That's what spaceflight's all about folks. Vague aspirations.

 

[tequilashooter]

The race of the cargo it is, Chinas soil return option for Mars and Nuklon, Maybe KB arsenal could help Space X with their TEM to get nuclear reactors to Mars like their image proposals to help power bases.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

^ If I get my pillow onto Mars before you, I win?

Continuing my research on destination Mars. Real pity the ASRG was cancelled (sidelined?). Seems ideal.

 

[GTX]

It seems many people think the only desire to go to Mars is for scientific reasons. I find this naive and ridiculous. Whether people want to admit it or not, the underlying reason for most is simple the human urge for adventure, a new frontier etc. Robots and AI can not satisfy this. Its the same reason people, myself included, have gone to places such as Antarctica, Machu Picchu and many other places. Its also why there is interest in space tourism. This sense of adventure is not put off because of the dangers - in fact, for many, that is part of the attraction. I guarantee you that if a crew of say 6 were killed in an accident involved with Mars there would be another 6000 willing to take their places without hesitation.

 

[Deleted member 2278]

It seems that many people think that because they have friends with moolah they can just buy Newton off. I find it naive and ridiculous!

I came into this thread with 10-15-year out of date conceptions. I didn't think a manned Mars mission was viable in the foreseeable future. I now have some in-date conceptions regarding the current state of the art of spaceflight. I still don't think a manned Mars mission will be viable in the foreseeable future.

 

[Justo Miranda]

It seems many people think the only desire to go to Mars is for scientific reasons. I find this naive and ridiculous. Whether people want to admit it or not, the underlying reason for most is simple the human urge for adventure, a new frontier etc. Robots and AI can not satisfy this. Its the same reason people, myself included, have gone to places such as Antarctica, Machu Picchu and many other places. Its also why there is interest in space tourism. This sense of adventure is not put off because of the dangers - in fact, for many, that is part of the attraction. I guarantee you that if a crew of say 6 were killed in an accident involved with Mars there would be another 6000 willing to take their places without hesitation.

I share your opinion, but in future space travel there will be no room for chance, nor for adventure, nor for dangerous explorations. It is already too expensive to rescue all the idiots who take unnecessary risks without sufficient preparation, experience or equipment, in Tibet, in the Sahara or in the Amazon, but it is an acceptable expense to keep alive the interest in nature and the business of exotic travel.

 

[GTX]

but in future space travel there will be no room for chance, nor for adventure, nor for dangerous explorations.

That won't stop people.

 

[edwest4]

All of the probes are going there for scientific reasons. To locate water, to determine local chemistry and so on. Sure, there were people who volunteered for suicide missions during World War II. And people will die to protect their land. During the 'moon race,' the goal was to put an American flag there before a Russian one. Then the lawyers/diplomats could hash out ownership rights. Why was Columbus financed and where was he going?

Looking at the goals for the space program, they include mining and processing. The asteroid belt has long been mentioned as a target. There have been proposals to use solar energy on the moon and beam it across space to wherever it's needed.

 

[Justo Miranda]

but in future space travel there will be no room for chance, nor for adventure, nor for dangerous explorations.

That won't stop people.

That is true but (unfortunately for those who believe in adventure) they will not be selected to pilot spaceships, psychologists would consider their enthusiasm as a factor of instability. They don't want Yeagers, they want Amstrongs.