Kawasaki P-X and C-X

[datafuser]

is there any export potential for the P-1? or does the P-8s existence puts it to nil?

It's kind of like MS Windows/Intel (P-8) vs. NEC PC-98 (P-1).

 

[datafuser]

This has been covered in Japanese sources. Basically the number of P-1s will be cut by single digits which will still leave the total built to be ~70 airframes. Also existing airframes will be upgraded, so it's not really that big of a blow. Also the cut P-1s will be replaced by UAVs likely MQ-9B the JCG is using. Chances are the contract will be given to KHI too which doesn't really affect KHI's bottom line.

Can you please post URL links to those Japanese sources?

【別表】自衛隊の部隊や装備などの整備計画：朝日新聞デジタル

岸田政権が閣議決定した安保関連３文書に盛り込まれた、部隊や装備などの整備計画は以下の通り。　３文書は、外交や防衛などの指針である「国家安全保障戦略」のほか、防衛の目標や達成する方法を示した「国家防衛…

www.asahi.com

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/budget/yosan_gaiyo/index.html

Thanks, but I am looking for Japanese news articles that said "the number of P-1s will be cut by single digits" and "Chances are the contract will be given to KHI".

The Japanese MoD document and the Asahi's news story say nothing about that.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

is there any export potential for the P-1? or does the P-8s existence puts it to nil?

P-1 was touted to the UK, but lost to the P-8.

Hard to see who’s left in the game, P-8 seems to have picked all the low-hanging fruit. Taiwan and SK have P-3s, but would likely go for the P-8, as likely would Canada - though I could see 4 engines being attractive for them, given the size of the country and their wide maritime area.

Not only UK but Germany as well. SK is already replacing their P-3s with P-8. Also there is no chance in hell that either SK or Japan procures one another's weapons system.

Nil sadly. Just too many Japanese-specific systems aboard.
There was talk of swapping out stuff for more international kit in order to attract sales but it doesn't seem to have gotten anywhere. An export customer would end up footing the revalidation costs no doubt and that's unattractive. The P-8 seems to have the segment to itself.

Add to that there is the problem of P-1 LCC, which has risen, is rising and will continue to rise in the near future. Recent doctrinal shift and alterations to P-1 procurement is not helping at all as well.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

The Japanese MoD document and the Asahi's news story say nothing about that.

No, these article and document tells you everything. It is mentioned in the article that JSDF will procure 19 P-1s in the next 5 years. Now add that number to the P-1s already procured (45) and subtract that number from the planned total procurement of P-1 by JMSDF (70). It's simple arithmetics.

 

[datafuser]

The Japanese MoD document and the Asahi's news story say nothing about that.

No, these article and document tells you everything. It is mentioned in the article that JSDF will procure 19 P-1s in the next 5 years. Now add that number to the P-1s already procured (45) and subtract that number from the planned total procurement of P-1 by JMSDF (70). It's simple arithmetics.

Where does it say they have already bought 45?

This one ( https://www.mod.go.jp/j/publication/wp/wp2022/html/ns008000.html ) says 33.

What I am looking for is Japanese articles that specifically say the size of the cut will be less than 10 and KHI will be compensated by new UAV contracts.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

Where does it say they have already bought 45?

This one ( https://www.mod.go.jp/j/publication/wp/wp2022/html/ns008000.html ) says 33.

Oh I've made a small mistake there. It's 42 not 45 in total.

Talking about the white paper you've cited, go read it again and this time be careful of the details. What does it say there?

"保有数は、 2022.3.31現在の国有財産台帳数値である。"
Important to know : 総国有財産台帳数値 =/= 総調達数量

What I am looking for is Japanese articles that specifically say the size of the cut will be less than 10 and KHI will be compensated by new UAV contracts.

Also here are the MoD procurement budgets for those years which P-1 was procured. Note that for Reiwa 3 (2021) a supplementary budget was added for 3 more P-1s. Good luck and have fun with looking for an article if this doesn't satisfy you.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

Found a better one.

 

[Kota]

It's 42 airframes now with a planned 19 to be produced in the 5 year build up.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611632884422692865

View: https://twitter.com/harapeko11/status/1611632884422692865

I got the number total wrong initially. The original plan was 70 airframes now reduced to 61.

 

[helmutkohl]

Japan to buy less P-1s (and also Seahawks) than planned

Japan makes changes to acquisition of several key weapons – Alert 5

but more E-2s and tankers

 

[Kota]

Some new C-2 and P-1 developments for FY2023.

C-2
Guided missile launch system for the C-2 study

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663115755699974145

View: https://twitter.com/THABOS47747375/status/1663115755699974145

This is likely related to the MoD wanting to mount a system similar to Rapid Dragon on transport planes

【フォト】自衛隊・輸送機、潜水艦にも反撃力　極超音速誘導弾を開発へ

政府が１６日に閣議決定する予定の防衛力整備計画に、自衛隊の輸送機や潜水艦に長射程ミサイルを搭載・発射可能にする方針を明記することが分かった。他国領域のミサイル…

www.sankei.com

---

I already wrote about it in the more relevant section, but a C-2 modified with GCAP equipment as a FTB will begin testing this year.

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/global-combat-air-programme-gcap-uk-japan-italy.40657/page-5#post-600045

---

P-1
Possible AWACS version of the P-1

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661330272288395264

View: https://twitter.com/yasu_osugi/status/1661330272288395264

---

Capability enhancement for the P-1 radar. This is likely related to the midterm defense build up which involved slashing the total P-1 procurement, but opting to overhaul the airframes for improved performance.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1663184016525373440

View: https://twitter.com/THABOS47747375/status/1663184016525373440

---

 

[FighterJock]

Looking forward to the new AWACS variant of the P-1, I only wish that Japan has better luck than we did with the Nimrod AEW.

 

[TomS]

Looking forward to the new AWACS variant of the P-1, I only wish that Japan has better luck than we did with the Nimrod AEW.

The Japanese text just refers to "thin and lightweight radar," nothing specific about AEW that I could see. Given that the P-1 already incorporates a distributed AESA radar (HPS-106) for sea surveillance, this might just be further improvement of that technology.

 

[Kota]

The Japanese text just refers to "thin and lightweight radar," nothing specific about AEW that I could see. Given that the P-1 already incorporates a distributed AESA radar (HPS-106) for sea surveillance, this might just be further improvement of that technology.

The key line here is

（９）動向調査の結果を踏まえ、当該器材の特性（レーダの大きさ、空力特性、消費電力、電波干渉など含む。）などに応じて、搭載方法の導出要領について企画提案できること。

It talks about how to derive a mounting method based on the radar's size and aerodynamic characteristics. Specifically noting altering the aircrafts aerodynamic characteristics. The implications point towards an external array that would alter aerodynamics of the aircraft to a significant extent and based on previous talks of a potential AEW variant makes the remarks noteworthy. Such considerations would typically not be considered if it was simply a drop in replacement for the HPS-106.

 

[TomS]

The Japanese text just refers to "thin and lightweight radar," nothing specific about AEW that I could see. Given that the P-1 already incorporates a distributed AESA radar (HPS-106) for sea surveillance, this might just be further improvement of that technology.

The key line here is

（９）動向調査の結果を踏まえ、当該器材の特性（レーダの大きさ、空力特性、消費電力、電波干渉など含む。）などに応じて、搭載方法の導出要領について企画提案できること。

It talks about how to derive a mounting method based on the radar's size and aerodynamic characteristics. Specifically noting altering the aircrafts aerodynamic characteristics. The implications point towards an external array that would alter aerodynamics of the aircraft to a significant extent and based on previous talks of a potential AEW variant makes the remarks noteworthy. Such considerations would typically not be considered if it was simply a drop in replacement for the HPS-106.

Ah, that makes more sense. I thought the E-2D orders would delay the need for a new indigenous AEW aircraft, but maybe that's just a gap filler due to the delayed arrival of something better.

The other possibility would be a counterpart to the Advanced Airborne Sensor on the P-8, a large radar for wide-area surface surveillance.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

Looking forward to the new AWACS variant of the P-1, I only wish that Japan has better luck than we did with the Nimrod AEW.

They already considered a P-1 based AEW&C for the E-2C replacement and tbh I'm not sure if they'll opt for their own design this time around instead of buying E-7s. If anything the E-2C replacement was a better opportunity numberwise I feel. Of course since they were very eager to get CEC maybe there wasn't any other choice than E-2D.

 

[FighterJock]

It will be sad of Japan do not develop their own AWACS based on the P-1 and going for the E-7 instead, I would like to see another AWACS take on the E-7 and the SAAB GlobalEye

 

[Kota]

カナダ企業、海自のP-1能力向上型向けに磁気探知機を出荷したと発表

カナダの防衛産業企業CAEは31日「海上自衛隊の新型P-1に搭載されるMAD-XRシステムの初回分を三菱電機に納入した」と発表、P-1能力向上型が採用する磁気探知機は米海軍のMH-60が採用しているものと同じだ。

grandfleet.info

The P-1 upgrade is getting a Canadian MAD. From what I can tell it won't replace the tail MAD boom, but act as a supplemental system.

 

[GTX]

Japan Wants To Airdrop Long-Range Missiles From Its C-2 Cargo Aircraft - The Aviationist

Japan is considering using its Kawasaki C-2 tactical transport aircraft to carry and airdrop stand-off missiles. Japan's Defense Ministry is considering mounting long-range missiles on Kawasaki C-2 transport planes, The Japan Times reported on Aug. 6, 2023. According to the Japanese media...

theaviationist.com

 

[raptor82]

JMSDF’s new electric warfare plane (P-1 variant):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773299301982097653

View: https://twitter.com/modjapan_jp/status/1773299301982097653?s=46&t=5THFve96Abhx7VANdlTzrg