@Galaxy is likely an Indian. The audio doesn't match the lips. Likely an edited video. It's literally been 2 mins since we talked about spreading misinformation.

This made me try to find the video and just as I said in a reply to him the 21 kills the pilot in the video is talking about are of the No. 14 Squadron "Tail Choppers" in the 1965 war. And by some miracle he happens to speak about the part in english.

Posting the video below. The pilot, Sqn Ldr Umar talks about the squadron's history in english at 9:54 after which the clip in the tweet comes from. Makes sense that it was cropped that close to make it difficult to look it up.

View: https://youtu.be/mVgBTqOJOYs?si=9Pcaq8dPuXjTB7Fn&t=594
 
Probably, it's newer and the French really aren't known for bleeding edge electronics.

What I don't really get is how poorly designed this operation was. The Indians should have access to advisers who can train them better than this clown car of an operation.
I think they did pretty good being stay within border and fire stand-off ground attack munition.
What got them is they totally underestimate the PAF kill chain range.
Correct me if I'm wrong, the Rafale is down on the way home very close to the base which is 90km from the border.
Most likely it's a surprise attack leave the pilot very little reaction time.

You guys think Pakistan's SAAB Erieye awacs are integrated with their J10C to aid in guiding the PL15?
Yes. they have Link 17. I don't think J-10CE can do this alone since the attack window is pretty small.
 
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I think they did pretty good being stay within border and fire stand-off ground attack munition.
What got them is they totally underestimate the PAF kill chain range.
Correct me if I'm wrong, the Rafale is down on the way home very close to the base which is 90km from the border.
Most likely it's a surprise attack leave the pilot very little reaction time.


Yes. most likely with Link 17. I don't think J-10CE can do this alone since the attack window is pretty small.
I guess the IAF needs more awacs then. India is 7 times larger than Pakistan but only has half the awacs fleet size.
I read somewhere that PAF awacs/ew blinded the IAF jets in 2019 when scoring a kill or two...
 
I guess the IAF needs more awacs then. India is 7 times larger than Pakistan but only has half the awacs fleet size.
I read somewhere that PAF awacs/ew blinded the IAF jets in 2019 when scoring a kill or two...
Don't know if true but I have the impression IAF still use voice communication on AWACS due to not able to incorporated jets from Russia, French and UK.
 
@Galaxy is likely an Indian. The audio doesn't match the lips. Likely an edited video. It's literally been 2 mins since we talked about spreading misinformation.


Grown up, I’m not Indian nor is it your business what I am but I am not an Indian. Both sides like to spread wild misinformation and anytime anyone questions it they are automatically accused of being an Indian or Pakistani. I do find it comical though, i must be the only “Indian” alive that praised Pakistani tactics while criticizing Indians for never engaging the PAF directly the last two skirmishes.

PL-15 that failed to reach target that was said to be launched at SU-30MKi. There are probably many more that have yet to be recovered.

IMG_2296.jpeg
 
It appears that the warhead and seeker are missing.


That is because it either self destructed (unlikely as it would be in worse condition) after failing to hit a target or a as it was gliding down after it failed to hit a target the warhead was torn off as it made contact with the terrain. This is based on the mostly intact condition, in the terminal phase the rocket motors burn out and missiles use kinetic energy, meaning it eventually glided back to earth.
 
这是因为它要么在未能击中目标后自毁(不太可能,因为情况更糟),要么在未能击中目标后滑翔下降时,弹头在接触地面时脱落。这是基于基本完好的情况,在末期,火箭发动机烧毁,导弹使用动能,这意味着它最终会滑翔返回地球。
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1746772726039.png 1746772745408.png
Hmm... The relative position of the missile wings in the wreckage pictures can be compared. Considering that the PL-15 uses a continuous rod warhead, personally, I think the wreckage in the picture is the propulsion section left after self-destruction. Of course, time will tell. If they obtain the complete warhead section, there is a high probability that they will display it in the media someday, thus undermining the confidence of the Pakistanis or suggesting that they can reverse engineer China's technology to gain an advantage.
 
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Hmm... The relative position of the missile wings in the wreckage pictures can be compared. Considering that the PL-15 uses a continuous rod warhead, personally, I think the wreckage in the picture is the propulsion section left after self-destruction. Of course, time will tell. If they obtain the complete warhead section, there is a high probability that they will display it in the media someday, thus undermining the confidence of the Pakistanis or suggesting that they can reverse engineer China's technology to gain an advantage.


The missile would disintegrate into small pieces if the warhead exploded. The diameter surface area of the PL-15 is 50 square inches, at mach 5 that would be 13,000lbs pressure, of course that is sea level which is unrealistic but even if we calculate the density and air pressure at 50,000 feet which is also unlikely that any aircraft would be operating that high then it still comes out to over 2,700lbs of instant pressure.

Even if the missile somehow survived after it fell down to earth, it would not be a cylindrical shape anymore but more flattened due to the G forces and sudden stop. Everything indicates the missile could not find a target, hit terminal velocity and descended back to earth slowing down more and more due to drag and air density.
There are many examples of missiles gliding back to earth and landing and in almost every single case the warhead is missing since that is the first part that makes contact with the terrain. Besides that missiles have weak spots where the motor/seaker/warheads are connected and that is the first place missiles have structural failures.
 
The missile would disintegrate into small pieces if the warhead exploded.

No, the parts adjacent to the exploding warhead would be reduced to small fragments but the the rocket-motor and tail-section would be basically intact except for ground-impact damage, I saw a video a few years ago on YT which showed the test-firing of an SM-2 Block-IV (Or was it an SM-6) at Whitesands missile-range. Where afterwards a team was sent out to retrieve the missile's wreckage, the tail-section and rocket-motor section were basically still in one piece.
 
A lot of baseless speculation going on in this thread. We don’t know why (and even if?) a Rafale has been brought down. And even if an aircraft or two has been lost on either side, one or two losses tells us nothing about the systems of the aircraft and how good or bad they are.

True, a modern aircraft like the Rafale can be brought down due to the EW system failing to thwart a hostile missile. But it could also be brought down by AAA or some lucky paramilitary firing the “golden BB” from an AK-47. Or it could be due to a combat induced CFIT, hubris, or bad tactics. We just don’t know yet.

You need some sort of statistics like recurring losses of a particular plane to judge that. So the time to start being worried about how good or bad western systems are, is if we end up with a big pile of Rafales while the Russian systems reign supreme in a conflict like the one we’re seeing. However, I don’t think that that’s going to happen: Russians systems have historically proven themselves time and again incapable of attaining air superiority. And now even operated by themselves against such a weak foe as Ukraine was back in 2022. And Ukraine recently getting even 90’s technology western F-16’s made the Russians take a step back there. And that is not even mentioning the Patriot system, which has been a game changer there.

So, no, a purported loss of a single Rafale in this conflict is not very worrisome and does not mean that western systems suck. Rather to the contrary, I think both Pakistan and India have followed the Ukraine conflict closely and are drawing conclusions about the viability of equipping their defense forces with Russian (and by extension Chinese) systems. So in summary, while it may be tempting to some, taking the loss of a single Rafale to mean that western systems are done and that the future belongs to Russian and Chinese systems seems like a stretch at best.
 
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Hmm... The relative position of the missile wings in the wreckage pictures can be compared. Considering that the PL-15 uses a continuous rod warhead, personally, I think the wreckage in the picture is the propulsion section left after self-destruction. Of course, time will tell. If they obtain the complete warhead section, there is a high probability that they will display it in the media someday, thus undermining the confidence of the Pakistanis or suggesting that they can reverse engineer China's technology to gain an advantage.
View: https://x.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1920714175082348815
 
@AndersJ : Sadly, all Credible sources from French, US, Indian and Pakistani converge around a Rafale brought down by a Chinese fighter, identified as a J-10 and at least another airframe (that could well be a drone).
No credible source has accredited the thesis that a plane collided with a lucky bullet or a secretly adorned PAF Pigeon...

Losses are sustained at war. Nobody with a sane mind would draw such hasten conclusion that Western systems are irrelevant. First, it's a French fighter build by a company that make a line selling particular systems not shared with other allies, something more or less true. Second, the 1 hours mass BVR dogfights with no kill on the Indian side suggest very strict RoE probably irrelevant with the tactical situation.

Then there is the apparent results that turns a said so surprise reprisal raid, something that usually favors the attacker, such a one sided defeat, at least on the air to air aspect (let's remind that the IAF reached all its targets with precision, something that haven't been contested, at least to my knowledge).
It is important to understand what happened there. Trying to hide such results under a patriotic cover just won't help, something that History tells us results only in more unsuited blood spill.

There is a time for the superlative marketing lines and an other for a deep dive into hard work, research and, beyond all, modesty.

 
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Why isn't there any IAF missile recovered in Pakistan?

Admittedly these are pretty hard to find. They are not as easy to spot as flaming aircraft wreckages. The fact that we found three or four PL-15s so quickly is testament to just how many Pakistan fired during engagement.
 
@Galaxy is likely an Indian. The audio doesn't match the lips. Likely an edited video. It's literally been 2 mins since we talked about spreading misinformation.
I am not sure who Galaxy is (nor should anyone care) but aren't we glad you joined the forum just in time for this thread. :rolleyes:
 
@AndersJ : Sadly, all Credible sources from French, US, Indian and Pakistani converge around a Rafale brought down by a Chinese fighter, identified as a J-10 and at least another airframe (that could well be a drone).
No credible source has accredited the thesis that a plane collided with a lucky bullet or a secretly adorned PAF Pigeon...

Losses are sustained at war. Nobody with a sane mind would draw such hasten conclusion that Western systems are irrelevant. First, it's a French fighter build by a company that make a line selling particular systems not shared with other allies, something more or less true. Second, the 1 hours mass BVR dogfights with no kill on the Indian side suggest very strict RoE probably irrelevant with the tactical situation.

Then there is the apparent results that turns a said so surprise reprisal raid, something that usually favors the attacker, such a one sided defeat, at least on the air to air aspect (let's remind that the IAF reached all its targets with precision, something that haven't been contested, at least to my knowledge).
It is important to understand what happened there. Trying to hide such results under a patriotic cover just won't help, something that History tells us results only in more unsuited blood spill.

There is a time for the superlative marketing lines and an other for a deep dive into hard work, research and, beyond all, modesty.


I think you missed the main point I was making: What I was saying was that even if a Rafale has been lost, this has zero value because it is statistically insignificant. True, it could have been brought down in a well-orchestrated BVR engagement which mirrors the technological capabilities of both sides. On the other hand it could also have been brought down by incompetence or hubris. We simply don’t know yet. The only thing we do know however is that you need much more data than that to draw any conclusions:

The type of data that three years of conflict in the Ukraine has given us, and where we definitely can see what Russian gear can, or as we now know, cannot accomplish. And this time the Russian can’t blame the operators like they have done in all previous clashes, e.g. in the Middle East, where their gear has come up short again and again. So this leaves us with the Chinese stuff. Well the technology behind that, where does that originate? Sure, they are gradually weaning off a reliance on Russian technology and are now pouring massive amounts of R&D into their military but I don’t think many of us are very impressed by the results we’re seeing so far.

The fact is that the war in Ukraine has proven a disaster for Eastern manufactured military systems given that this conflict has highlighted with glaring clarity that the emperor has no clothes. For example, the Kinzhal used to be touted as a “hypersonic and impossible to intercept” missile until Patriots started shooting it down. And now in this India versus Pakistan conflict the J-10 and SP-15 are hailed in a similar manner, with the implications that French systems are somehow outdated because of the loss of a single Rafale? Give me a break…..

Finally, it is as you say important to understand what is happening and not trying to hide such results under “a patriotic cover” or “superlative marketing”. However, when reading some contributions in this thread connected to the performance of Russian and Chinese systems in this current conflict, I have to say that the old English saying pot calling kettle black comes to mind.
 
Why isn't there any IAF missile recovered in Pakistan?

I wondered the same. Surely the Pakistani side would show evidence of said missiles. My guess is India didn’t fire any missiles due to inept and incompetent high ups? Could be wrong but seems like they are generally forbidden to fire at Pakistani aircraft while the Pakistanis are trigger happy and more than willing and happy to shoot first.
 
I think you missed the main point I was making: What I was saying was that even if a Rafale has been lost, this has zero value because it is statistically insignificant. True, it could have been brought down in a well-orchestrated BVR engagement which mirrors the technological capabilities of both sides. On the other hand it could also have been brought down by incompetence or hubris. We simply don’t know yet. The only thing we do know however is that you need much more data than that to draw any conclusions:

The type of data that three years of conflict in the Ukraine has given us, and where we definitely can see what Russian gear can, or as we now know, cannot accomplish. And this time the Russian can’t blame the operators like they have done in all previous clashes, e.g. in the Middle East, where their gear has come up short again and again. So this leaves us with the Chinese stuff. Well the technology behind that, where does that originate? Sure, they are gradually weaning off a reliance on Russian technology and are now pouring massive amounts of R&D into their military but I don’t think many of us are very impressed by the results we’re seeing so far.

The fact is that the war in Ukraine has proven a disaster for Eastern manufactured military systems given that this conflict has highlighted with glaring clarity that the emperor has no clothes. For example, the Kinzhal used to be touted as a “hypersonic and impossible to intercept” missile until Patriots started shooting it down. And now in this India versus Pakistan conflict the J-10 and SP-15 are hailed in a similar manner, with the implications that French systems are somehow outdated because of the loss of a single Rafale? Give me a break…..

Finally, it is as you say important to understand what is happening and not trying to hide such results under “a patriotic cover” or “superlative marketing”. However, when reading some contributions in this thread connected to the performance of Russian and Chinese systems, I have to say that the old English saying pot calling kettle black comes to mind.


Since you brought up Ukraine and western weapons, if anything the war in Ukraine proved a lot of western weapons were over rated and more marketing then reality. For one western weapons are not difficult to jam and this is not me making things up, Ukrainians complained about it. As for Patriot shooting down Kinzals….there are dozens of videos of slower Iskandars (downgraded ground launched versions of Kinzals) taking out Patriot and IRIS-T launchers, HIMARS, airbases, and command centers, just because Ukraine claims something doesn’t make it true, if fact they lie profusely. Perhaps Ukraine shot down a few Iskandars or perhaps a Kinzals but out of how many? What was the success rate? Because Russia published hundreds of successful strikes even in attacks where Ukraine claimed 100% interceptions.

The problem with western weapons is that they are generally advertised to be almost unstoppable. I remember stories of Challengers taking 100 RPG hits in Iraq and surviving yet a single RPG/drone in Ukraine has torn Challengers turrets straight off, and the British claimed that only Russian tanks lose their turrets, but the issue is western equipment tends to break down and require high maintenance. Of course there are really good systems too but you make blanket statements.

You are also forgetting Ukraine is receiving NATO global intelligence, logistics, training, ect making their weapons that much more effective.

I don’t know what happened with the Rafale and I think it’s still one of the best none LO platforms but we were told for years how amazing the Spectra was and that it can survive in any environment and can easily dominate even J-20s however this time it didn’t save it. To be perfectly fair, F-16s have been shot down, F-15s, SU-35s, F-117s, ect none of those were bad aircraft and at times it was just poor mission planning with bad pilot decisions that led to those losses.
 
I don’t know what happened with the Rafale and I think it’s still one of the best none LO platforms but we were told for years how amazing the Spectra was and that it can survive in any environment and can easily dominate even J-20s however this time it didn’t save it.

If you have a 4+ generation aircraft equipped in strike package (multiple cruise missiles and other PGMs) without there being a considerable investment of time and effort in SEAD then you will run up the risk. The jet is alleged to have taken off some 100 miles from Pakistani air space. It was likely within SAM range for most if not all of its flight time. Spectra is a self defense suite, not a magic silver bullet. It won't fix that problem for you and the risk of getting shot at is what you assume if this is how you intend to deliver the said weapons..Doesn't mean 4+ gen platforms won't contribute valuably to a fight with heavy SAM coverage..but they would have to remain stand-off until those ADS have been supressed. Think F-15EX's delivering JASSM's or HACM's from 500 nautical miles away.
 
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At 4am on Wednesday, China’s ambassador to Pakistan hurried to the foreign ministry to celebrate an unprecedented military success.
Pakistan had reportedly shot down several Indian aircraft in the hours before using Chinese J-10C fighter jets.
“Our jet fighters… shot down three Indian Rafales, three Rafales [that] are French,” Ishaq Dar, Pakistan’s foreign minister, told parliament on Wednesday. “Ours were J-10C.”

The Chinese delegation, roused from their sleep by the outbreak of conflict between two nuclear-armed nations, was thrilled with the success of the Pakistani defence, Mr Dar said.

“Being a friendly nation, they expressed great happiness.”
India has not officially responded to reports that it lost as many as five fighter jets. But the apparent involvement of Chinese aircraft in shooting down a Rafale has ricocheted through defence circles – and sent stock in its maker, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, surging by as much as 20 per cent.

Until now, Chinese weaponry had not been field-tested against Western-made systems like the Rafale. The Indian Air Force (IAF) operates a fleet of 36 Rafale F3Rs, the most advanced model of the aircraft.

A French intelligence source confirmed to CNN on Wednesday that at least one had been shot down, marking the first time a Rafale has been lost during combat.

In an official statement, China’s foreign ministry said it was “not familiar with the matter” when asked whether Chinese jets were involved in the skirmish.

Later on Thursday evening, a US official told Reuters that there was “high confidence” a J-10C had shot down two Indian fighters, using air-to-air missiles.

That appeared to confirm the aircraft first known “kill”, having entered service in its earliest form in 2003. It has been described as a “4.5 generation fighter”, like the British Eurofighter Typhoons and almost at the level of fifth generation systems like the US-made F-35.

Hu Jixin, the former editor of the Chinese state-owned Global Times, said the battle showed that “China’s level of military manufacturing has completely surpassed that of Russia and France”, adding that Taiwan should feel “even more scared”.

Defence analysts remain cautious of reading too much into the technological battle between the two systems. Pilot error, or the rules of engagement, could have contributed to the Indian Rafale’s demise.

But open-source intelligence analysts are poring over images of the wreckage of a Chinese-made PL-15 missile, broadcast on Indian television and shared on social media.

The missile, which is carried by the J-10C, has never been used in combat before. But its ability to fire at targets far beyond the visual range of pilots appears to fit with the outlines of the clash on Wednesday morning.

Neither Pakistani nor Indian aircraft crossed the border, engaging instead in a “stand-off” conflict at a distance of more than 100km at times. The wreckage of a Rafale was discovered near the city of Bathinda deep inside India, according to multiple open-source analysts.

China’s development of the PL-15 prompted the US military to invest in a missile specifically designed to outrange it.

The PL-15E, the version exported to the Pakistani armed forces, can travel up to 145km, somewhat less far than the domestic equivalent.

Chinese military observers have long viewed it as a “very capable missile”, said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology researcher and non-resident fellow of the Centre for European Policy Analysis.

“But obviously [if a hit is confirmed] this is now a very public demonstration of the prowess of Chinese military aerospace technologies” that “carries outside the bubble”.

“This is another point of indication that, if there was a Taiwan conflict, you probably should not assume that Chinese technology would fail at the same rate as Russia’s during the war in Ukraine.”

On April 29, with cross-border tensions rising, Pakistan’s army published a YouTube video showcasing its military arsenal.

In the video, a Chinese-made JF-17 Block 3 fighter jet, less advanced than the J-10C, can be seen equipped with PL-15 missiles. The combination offers “potent punch”, a caption reads.

For pilots in the Pakistani Air Force, the PL-15 missile has several advantages. Once fired, it has a large rocket booster that briefly propels the projectile to above Mach 5, or hypersonic, speeds.

In the middle of its flight, it is guided to target by an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar that can be held on the launch system or a separate vehicle. Close to the target, it switches on its own AESA radar, locks on, and homes in with deadly accuracy.

A dual-pulse motor means that, after the initial blast falls away, a second burst of speed can be generated within 10 or so kilometres from the target.

“Because they are very, very fast, they basically have what you call a ‘no-escape zone’,” Mr Hoffmann said.

The switch from the first radar system to the missile’s onboard version also allows the jet that launched it to turn away from the target and flee any counterfire.

“There’s survivability for the [launch] platform, but also lethality for the [missile] itself.”

When India and Pakistan clash, so do their military backers. In recent years, the two nations have rapidly diverged in terms of where they source their weaponry.

Now, Islamabad buys the vast majority of its arms from China. Some 82 per cent of imports between 2019 and 2023 came from its “iron brother”, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which tracks global arms flows.

Imports from the US, meanwhile, have collapsed.

At the same time, Delhi has stepped up arms purchases from Western allies and reduced its reliance on Russia. Since 2006, purchases from France, Israel and the US have surged. Imports from Moscow have fallen from 75 per cent of the total to 36 per cent, according to the SIPRI.

“The big advantage the Pakistanis have is that their primary weapon supplier is China,” said Dr Walter Ladwig, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.

“The Indian defence budget is bigger on paper, the modernisation budget is bigger.”

But Beijing “delivers”. It has rapidly supplied Pakistan with armour, a jointly developed fighter jet (in the form of the JF-17 Block 3) and missile systems.

For various reasons, India’s main suppliers, Russia and France (who provide 36 per cent and 33 per cent of imports respectively) have been slower to fulfil their orders, said Dr Ladwig. India’s air force is “still operating these antiquated MiGs”, he added.

China’s foreign ministry has urged both sides to exercise restraint and avoid a full-scale war. But there will be some in Beijing hoping for further, explosive field tests.
 
Likely warhead and seeker removed for evaluation, the airframe shown to the media :)
1000071567.jpg This photo is making some rounds on the internet and claiming it's the aesa seeker of one of the PL15s... (I'm not sure but I also don't know what an a2a aesa looks like.)
Admittedly these are pretty hard to find. They are not as easy to spot as flaming aircraft wreckages. The fact that we found three or four PL-15s so quickly is testament to just how many Pakistan fired during engagement.

If headlines like the above are true, it does support your reasoning on the number of a2a / s2a fired.

At least as per my understanding, I believe that most Pakistani cities are not far away from the border. Unless the military got to every single site before the locals did, which might be unlikely, I think we should have seen some photos pop up already.
I wondered the same. Surely the Pakistani side would show evidence of said missiles. My guess is India didn’t fire any missiles due to inept and incompetent high ups? Could be wrong but seems like they are generally forbidden to fire at Pakistani aircraft while the Pakistanis are trigger happy and more than willing and happy to shoot first.
India did claim to hit 9 sites inside Pakistan that led to the supposed aerial engagement between the two. That suggests that they may not be forbidden to engage Pakistanis.

I also don't think the Pakistanis are trigger happy. They seem to have only engaged Indian jets in 2019 and 2025 only after IAF conducting airstrikes in Pakistan/Pak-Kashmir.
 
Why isn't there any IAF missile recovered in Pakistan?
View: https://x.com/OSPSF/status/1920487818859557120?t=yT97w_GagEWfYgFY8PzqQx13WGN81877RDDTm0iX07A&s=19


Came across the above on a different forum. Claims to be an interception of an S400.

Same X thread shows a video of this interception happening from Amritsar, India. Dinga/Gujrat, Pakistan is 100km away from Amritsar, I'm not sure how someone can film it from that far away?
 

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