June 1, 2025 - Russian Airfields FPV Takedown

[Forest Green]

Seems to be some kind of 2025 Tet Offensive going on.

 

[Orionblamblam]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929184362966233319

View: https://x.com/GabbbarSingh/status/1929184362966233319

 

[TomcatViP]

40 Russians bombers and large aircraft reported destroyed by daring UAV raid inside Russia:

The drones hit 41 planes stationed at military airfields on Sunday afternoon, including A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22M aircraft, the official said. [...]

The Security Service of Ukraine said that the operation, which it codenamed “Web”, had destroyed 34% of Russia’s fleet of air missile carriers with damages estimated at $7 billion. The claim could not be independently verified.

Russia’s Defense Ministry in a statement confirmed the attacks, which damaged aircraft and sparked fires on air bases in the Irkutsk region, more than 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) from Ukraine, as well as the Murmansk region in the north, it said. Strikes were also repelled in the Amur region in Russia’s Far East and in the western regions of Ivanovo and Ryazan, the ministry said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spoken out about the drone attacks against Russia.
"An outstanding result," he writes on X.
He continues:
"A result achieved solely by Ukraine, one year, six months and nine days from when we started planning."
He further writes that all the details cannot be revealed at this time, but that Ukraine's actions will "go to the history books."

Picture of the trailer acting as a hive: https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-smuggled-drones-russia-destroy-172840183.html

Ukraine destroys 40 aircraft deep inside Russia ahead of peace talks in Istanbul

The Security Service of Ukraine said that the operation, which it codenamed “Web”, had destroyed 34% of Russia's fleet of air missile carriers with damages estimated at $7 billion.

apnews.com

This could mark a paradigm shift in Bomber engagement (range being no more the panacea in defense).

 

[MihoshiK]

Problem is going to be that like many Ukrainian "successes", much of this one will come back to NATO intel, especially satellite sources determining which airfields the bombers were at.

Two of the sites struck (Olenya and Belaya) are a very, very long way from Ukraine. How did the trucks get there and what routes did they take? Because the Russians will track the trucks back to points of entry and if they came in from NATO countries, well, that won't look very good will it.


View attachment 772014 View attachment 772015

So far we're only seeing Ukrainian sources on the number of bombers hit, probably best to wait a day or two for better numbers. The Tu-95's were mostly launching KH-101s from memory, and while this is a spectacular "success" for Ukraine, much like the sinking of the Moskva was, it isn't going to do much to improve things for the Ukrainians on the battlefield where they're still heavily outnumbered and "out-droned".

Sure isn't going to do much for the current round of negotiations either.

I'll be that guy, and just say it. The current negotiations are going no where anyway. Russia is interested in winning, not negotiating. Whether they can achieve that goal is irrelevant; they want to. Until they give it up, negotiations are useless.

 

[Mr.T]

We will see the actual tally once smoke clears ,

But in realtiy this kind of strike is viable anywhere around the globe , most airforces or militaries would suffer the same fate . Shelters being primary protection , they do not need to be rated for 500lb bombs but at least for FPVs

 

[siegecrossbow]

Probably far too many. There are quite a lot of peoples who still under illusions that "Russia and Ukraine just did not know how to fight properly" and "Western soldiers are trained, so they would just shot drones down using rifles". Yes, it's quotes.

Europeans said the same about the American Civil War and got a major wake up call during WWI when they had to deal with trench warfare. I’d imagine the same with small drones and FPVs.

 

[MihoshiK]

Oh God. If this turns out to be true it's not just a strategic blow to russia, it's epic level trolling too.

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

“This was truly a unique operation. And now I can say: the ‘office’ for this op inside Russia was located right next to an FSB headquarters. 117 drones were used, striking 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers at key airbases. Our teams were safely extracted in advance." — Zelensky

bsky.app

“This was truly a unique operation. And now I can say: the ‘office’ for this op inside Russia was located right next to an FSB headquarters.117 drones were used, striking 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers at key airbases. Our teams were safely extracted in advance." — Zelensky

 

[DWG]

The usefulness of a strategic weapon system is lost when you're stuck using it on civilian targets like schools and hospitals. It's bad optics and wasted munitions.

You're assuming those launching the attacks have the same value system you do. The whole point of the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets is to cause terror and try and undermine the will of the target to fight. The negative optics of attacking schools and hospitals only matter if you actually care about the victims, or about the opinions of those who do. If you only care about the terror caused, then this is absolutely an appropriate use of munitions.

 

[Josh_TN]

I don't think the losses will be that important. They weren't being used in a militarily useful capacity anyway. The English learned that in 1940.

They do not impact the current conflict significantly. The consequences to Russia’s strategic posture however are rather extreme.

 

[Elysium]

Two of the sites struck (Olenya and Belaya) are a very, very long way from Ukraine. How did the trucks get there and what routes did they take? Because the Russians will track the trucks back to points of entry and if they came in from NATO countries, well, that won't look very good will it.

From what I've read, they used some gig work platform where you can rent a truck w/driver, so nothing will come from tracking them.
Apparently all the plywood housing is because the drones were smuggled inside wooden cabins, my guess is that they were of Russian manufacture, and Ukrainians smuggled the drones and installed them in Russia, so tracking all that back from satellite is going to be next to impossible imo.

Edit: according to reddit, that's exactly what happened. The cabins were assembled in Chelyabinsk, Russia:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1l0u2zc/the_warehouse_where_the_drones_were_prepared_is_a

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1l0u2zc/the_warehouse_where_the_drones_were_prepared_is_a/

 

[leiter]

Europeans said the same about the American Civil War and got a major wake up call during WWI when they had to deal with trench warfare. I’d imagine the same with small drones and FPVs.

I don't think we can draw this comparison. The world is completely different, and many European militaries have already started integrating drones in their doctrine. Many of the drones used by Ukraine come from their western neighbors. The "Drone Coalition" comes to mind.

 

[Dilandu]

I don't think we can draw this comparison. The world is completely different, and many European militaries have already started integrating drones in their doctrine. Many of the drones used by Ukraine come from their western neighbors. The "Drone Coalition" comes to mind.

Which doesn't guarantee them from cultural and psychological blind spots.

 

[NMaude]

All those Tu-22M3s and Tu-95s that have been destroyed or damaged beyond repair are irreplaceable since their production ended ~1993 (Due to the collapse of their production supply-chains when the USSR collapsed at the end of 1991).

 

[Sferrin]

 

[slroger]

I had hoped Ukraine could deliver such cheap drones to these deep airbases using mother ship drones or cruise or ballistic missiles. But using local trucks is simply much more efficient and smarter. I'm honestly impressed. Also Zelensky mentioned that it was solely done by Ukraine. For such a high level attack, it was smart not to inform any Western counterparts. You never know how individuals or organizations feel about such an attack.

Otherwise I suspect we'll see more of such innovations targeting these aircraft considering just how much devastation they've done to Ukrainian civillians. Will Ukraine use airborne delivery systems or continue utilizing ground vehicles?? Will they incoporate fiber optic drones to counter jamming in future attacks? These are some of the questions in my head right now. How will Russia respond in terms of protecting its bases? CUAS utilizing other drones or hardened shelters or automated rifles are all options. Also as others have mentioned in a day or two we'll find out the extent of just how effective this strike was. There is alot coming out in the following days.

 

[DrRansom]

About the irreplaceability of the TU-22 and TU-95, the drone attack is a lesson to any military power, keep production lines running, because anything will take casualties.

As for hardened shelters, even a weather covering with a door or a net would have been enough to hinder this level of attack, the drone's weren't carrying heavy explosives. The goal isn't to stop at nuclear bomb or a 1000lb hard-target penetrator, but a 10-30lb explosive charge. Slowing down the drones would have been enough, provided ground crew had guns to shoot at them.

 

[NMaude]

About the irreplaceability of the TU-22 and TU-95, the drone attack is a lesson to any military power, keep production lines running, because anything will take casualties.

In regards to those two particular aircraft termination of production was inevitable following the collapse of the USSR (And its' supply-chains) also keep in mind that the Russian Federation was in very dire shape economically speaking so they couldn't afford to keep building them anyway.

 

[Orionblamblam]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpBxo1g27nM

 

[Orionblamblam]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqTk9_p9eG0

 

[bobbymike]

Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack Deletes a Third of Russia's Bomber Fleet and Sends a Warning to the US

redstate.com

 

[jeffb]

Satellite imagery starting to appear. This is allegedly Belaya airbase in the Irkutsk region.

According to this image:

Three Tu-95MS were destroyed.
One Tu-95MS was possibly damaged.
One Tu-22M3 was destroyed.

Doubtless more to come.

 

[galgot]

Око Гора ✙ Новости и аналитика

Итого по спутниковым снимкам + видеоподтвержденным поражениям имеем: Аб Белая (снимки): -4 Ту-95; -4 Ту-22М3; Аб Оленья (судя по видео): -4 Ту-95; -1 Ан-12. На данный момент точно поражено 8 Ту-95, 4 Ту-22М3, 1 Ан-12. = 13 самолетов. Око Гора ✙

t.me

Eye of Horus News and Analysis
Oko Gora News and Analysis
First radar-satellite images of Belaya airfield.
First image: -4 Tu-95 -1 Tu-22M3;
Second image: -3 Tu-22m3.
Total on satellite images + video-confirmed defeats have:

Ab Belaya (images):
-4 Tu-95;
-4 Tu-22M3;

Ab Olenya (judging by video):
-4 Tu-95;
-1 An-12.

So far, 8 Tu-95s, 4 Tu-22M3s, 1 An-12 have been accurately hit. = 13 aircraft.

and :


To sum up, for your own sake, don't make business with Artem.

 

[MihoshiK]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpBxo1g27nM

That shot at 1.33, where the wing just falls off.

 

[Dilandu]

To sum up, for your own sake, don't make business with Artem.

Must admit, this action was carefully planned and executed with great precision.

P.S. Should also point out that at least one truck was unable to unload its drone cargo because local bystanders, realizing what's going on, climbed on truck & blocked the exit hatches with plywood and bricks. Darn brave guys!

 

[timmymagic]

Europeans said the same about the American Civil War and got a major wake up call during WWI when they had to deal with trench warfare. I’d imagine the same with small drones and FPVs.

Not really. The Russian-Japanese war was taken seriously by European miitaries who had observers everywhere. The scale of WW1 surprised them though...

 

[galgot]

Must admit, this action was carefully planned and executed with great precision.

P.S. Should also point out that at least one truck was unable to unload its drone cargo because local bystanders, realizing what's going on, climbed on truck & blocked the exit hatches with plywood and bricks. Darn brave guys!

Yes, I think that is where the truck exploded at their faces though when one tried to get in ? Posted the vid earlier.

Here some screengrabs form a vid of the attack on Balaya air base, Irkusk oblast. I think these are Tu-160s, and I see at least one sure smoking. If not destroyed, damaged.

 

[NMaude]

realizing what's going on, climbed on truck & blocked the exit hatches with plywood and bricks.

The roof panels were already jettisoned with some of the drones already launched when some people clambered on top of the container.

Edit: Suchomimus has posted a followup analysis video on the drone-raid on one Russian airfield:

Satellite imagery from Belaya Air base shows a number of destroyed Tu-95 Bears and Tu-22M Backfire bombers as a result of Operation Web. Videos show AI targetting was used, with practice being done at Poltaya Aviation museum. Ukrainka Air Base was also intended to be targetted but the truck didn't reach it.

He of course will no doubt have followup videos as fresh satellite imagery becomes available.

 

[Archibald]

Don's Weekly, 2 June 2025: Part 1

by Donald Hill & Tom Cooper

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

In 2022, the DA entered this war with a total of following number of bomber airframes

• 55 Tupolev Tu-22M-3 ‘medium’ bombers,
• 57 Tupolev Tu-95MS, and
• 16 Tupolev Tu-160 strategic bombers.

As of early this year, the DA on average had less than 10 Tu-95MS’ and only 4-6 Tu-160s in FMC-condition.
Similarly, only some 27 Tu-22M-3s were operational on average.

With so few Tu-95 in operational readiness, the losses inflicted by Ukraine becomes much more significant. Tu-22M may fare better, 2 or 3 out of 27. Tu-160s ? we don't know, as @galgot said. But even 1 or 2 knocked out : once again would be significant, out of 4-6 !

 

[Archibald]

To sum up, for your own sake, don't make business with Artem.

Reminds me of another imaginary fellow : Randall Stevens.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7YrG-fVZB0

 

[Dilandu]

Terminally stupid idiots not realising they could earn themselves a posthumous Darwin-award, those drones were carrying explosive-charges.

Yeah, obviously you would not know the meaning of "bravery" unless it was said to you very slowly several times. They knew that those drones were carrying explosive charges. They tried to prevent them from attacking and killing someone (they have no idea to where exactly those drones would fly). Last time I checked, risking themselves to prevent an attack on others was the very definition of "bravery".

Courage is the choice and willingness to confront agony, pain, danger, uncertainty, or intimidation.

But of course in your black & white propaganda world only desginated good guys could be brave. The decignated bad guys could not be allowed such noble trait, or they wouldn't look so bad in propaganda.

I think I would end my participation in this discussion.

 

[Kat Tsun]

Europeans said the same about the American Civil War and got a major wake up call during WWI when they had to deal with trench warfare. I’d imagine the same with small drones and FPVs.

This is true.

Russia, and I suppose Ukraine to a lesser extent, are currently the best equipped and most experienced battlefield forces on the planet for 21st century combat. The second best, the United States, would need a year or two to adapt as did Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine only survives on the backs of literally thousands of T-64Bs to boot. Maybe the PLA would be okay, too, but they would be a lot less mechanized a couple years in.

Everyone else would simply be liquidated by FPV drones. Poland, France, Britain, Germany would all be annihilated. Most know this. Poland might not.

The roof panels were already jettisoned with some of the drones already launched when these fools clambered on top of the container.

Terminally stupid idiots not realising they could earn themselves a posthumous Darwin-award, those drones were carrying explosive-charges.

A man is far easier to replace than a nuclear bomber, and also a truck full of strategic weapons, and those brave soldiers know as much.

 

[Dilandu]

A man is far easier to replace than a nuclear bomber, and also a truck full of strategic weapons, and those brave soldiers know as much.

AFAIK, they weren't soldiers. Just bystanders, who realized that drones would attack someone. They probably didn't think about bombers or military base, just "those drones would kill someone it we don't stop them!"

 

[Kat Tsun]

AFAIK, they weren't soldiers. Just bystanders, who realized that drones would attack someone. They probably didn't think about bombers or military base, just "those drones would kill someone it we don't stop them!"

Thankfully it's action, not thought, that counts here. Brave regardless.

 

[DWG]

Not really. The Russian-Japanese war was taken seriously by European miitaries who had observers everywhere. The scale of WW1 surprised them though...

Not to mention the Crimean War and Solferino, which both resulted in considerable publicity around the number of casualties (leading to the Geneva Conventions and the creation of the Red Cross in the case of Solferino)

 

[DWG]

Everyone else would simply be liquidated by FPV drones. Poland, France, Britain, Germany would all be annihilated. Most know this. Poland might not.

Might want to consider where many of Ukraine's FPV drones and counter-drone defences are coming from.

 

[DWG]

Terminally stupid idiots

Bravery is not stupidity, whoever's side someone is on.

 

[MihoshiK]

AFAIK, they weren't soldiers. Just bystanders, who realized that drones would attack someone. They probably didn't think about bombers or military base, just "those drones would kill someone it we don't stop them!"

This. Just because I do not agree with the actions of their country as a whole does not mean these were not brave men.

No one pointed a gun at them and told them to do this, they risked their lives, literally, because they thought they could save the lives of others.

 

[Trident]

Errrrmmm...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929156864291287423

View: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1929156864291287423

Unlikely. The claimed location doesn't make much sense (the actual sub base is in a different part of Murmansk Fjord further NW called Polyarny) and if the Ukrainians have any sense they won't go there. No military relevance to their fight, because SSBNs are single-role nuclear deterrence assets (unlike the bombers, which are dual-role nuclear/conventional and have actively taken part already) - but if you strike them, you might provoke their involvement, with disastrous results...

Sure isn't going to do much for the current round of negotiations either.

As opposed to the near-500-strong Russian drone strike on Ukraine (including many non-military targets) hours before? It's not like there previously was much of a demonstrated interest in good-faith negotiations from the Russian side for this operation to damage...

 

[Byeman]

Russia, and I suppose Ukraine to a lesser extent, are currently the best equipped and most experienced battlefield forces on the planet for 21st century combat.

Not really, With this meat grinder, Russian has few good equipment and experienced personnel left

 

[Orionblamblam]

Might want to consider where many of Ukraine's FPV drones and counter-drone defences are coming from.

Ultimately? Likely China. At least important bits of them.