High Speed 2 (HS2) [United Kingdom]

Grey Havoc

Grey Havoc

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uk 75 said:
A Tentative Fleet Plan said:
uk 75 said:
Grey Havoc said:
Incidentally, regarding the ongoing disaster that is HS2:
www.telegraph.co.uk

Knives out for HS2 as Lord Wolfson calls for it to be scrapped to protect public purse

Pressure on the country's finances calls into question whether HS2 is worth the investment
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
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The problem for high speed rail travel in the UK is that the distances are too short. Saving some illusory two hours on a morning journey between London and Birmingham or Manchester assumes a world where even the fax machine does not exist much less the Internet.
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HS2s primary purpose is to segregate high speed and low-speed rail, this freeing up capacity on other lines. Provided people are still taking short-haul flights from one end of the UK to the other (and they are), then HS2 still has a purpose.
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Railways are not my area but logic suggests that improved signaling and cab warning systems plus local track changes around Britain might be a better way of doing this.
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From two weeks ago:
First phase of HS2 set to bust budget by 'many billions' of pounds (ft.com, registration or subscription may be required)
The first stage of the UK’s new HS2 high-speed railway is running “many billions” of pounds over its £40.3bn budget and the Treasury has asked for further potential cuts to the project, according to an internal review.

Europe’s biggest infrastructure scheme has already more than tripled in price since it was approved a decade ago. Since construction started on the first phase of the line between London and Birmingham in 2020 the cost looks set to increase further, according to a report presented to HS2’s board by Jon Thompson, former head of HM Revenue & Customs, who became deputy chair of the project in April last year.

The review said it was “very unlikely” that the £40.3bn price tag for the London to Birmingham section would be met. Although the first phase allowed for a contingency that would stretch the budget to £44.6bn, the report concluded there was only a 50 per cent chance that would be enough.

The final cost was likely to be “many billions more than the reported estimate”, the document, dated June 22 2022 and seen by the Financial Times, warned. It also criticised HS2’s decision to continue to record costs in 2019 prices as this meant none of the figures reflected “what has been or is being paid”.

It added: “In almost every area reviewed significant developments are planned in 2022/23 which impact on the estimates and risk.” Rising inflation was also proving a “significant and growing challenge”.

In a sign that HS2 was struggling to maintain control over costs, the project faced “bids for money from contractors on a continual basis and significant and lengthy commercial discussions around them”.

The Treasury has asked management to identify potential cuts or “scope reductions” to the full project, according to the document. But it warned that shrinking HS2 further would hurt its “value for money” case.

The original plan to build a Y-shaped line between London, Manchester and Leeds via Birmingham was costed at £33bn a decade ago. Last year, Boris Johnson’s government announced it was axing most of the eastern leg to Leeds in a bid to find cost savings as the total budget for the project looked set to exceed £100bn.

Any further cuts would probably include cutting or delaying elements of the second phase of the project, which is meant to run north of Birmingham to Manchester via Crewe.

The review also highlighted shortcomings in the way the first phase was being managed. It said two of the four consortiums hired to oversee the engineering work did not have “sufficient capacity and capability to manage all the various obligations placed up on them”. In hindsight, the consortiums were “too large to effectively manage and control”, it added.

The first phase of the project is already running at least three years late, with trains not expected to run between the capital and Birmingham until 2031.

[snip]
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And now:
www.newcivilengineer.com

HS2's £105M Euston station design 'can no longer be used', DfT admits | New Civil Engineer

As a result HS2 Ltd has had to discard large parts of the original design on which it has already spent £105.6M, according to the DfT's latest six monthly
www.newcivilengineer.com www.newcivilengineer.com

www.telegraph.co.uk

HS2 speeding through cash reserved for contingencies

Transport Secretary says London-to-Birmingham leg is likely to overshoot 'target cost' and is burning through money for additional costs
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk


:rolleyes:
 
The pages of that most wise of periodicals; 'Viz' once contained a letter on the subject of HS2 that went something along the lines of -
"To save £60billion, could London businessmen with meetings in Birmingham, set their alarm clocks 20 minutes earlier?" - Bishop Stortford (Bishop's Stortford)
 
Managed decline with Rishi Sunak.

Not unexpected given what he was saying in the July-September leadership election.

The problem with Britain's economy at the moment is sluggish growth, cancelling HS2 will not fix that, and will in fact have the opposite effect.
 
I suspect the real plan, is to move passengers onto HS2, and move road freight, onto the old lines, as rail freight. This will reduce the need for electric or hydrogen trucks, and reduce the need to further widen the M1/M6 for the next 50 years. Building a non HS rail, would have cost nearly as much, so we may as well have HS.

Please keep in mind that roughly 50% of spend comes back as tax, so stuff isn't really as expensive as it sounds.
 
Wonder what you can repurpose a viaduct factory for? The crane to assemble the viaduct was second hand, so I guess you can sell it on.
 
Fluff said:
I suspect the real plan, is to move passengers onto HS2, and move road freight, onto the old lines, as rail freight. This will reduce the need for electric or hydrogen trucks, and reduce the need to further widen the M1/M6 for the next 50 years. Building a non HS rail, would have cost nearly as much, so we may as well have HS.

Please keep in mind that roughly 50% of spend comes back as tax, so stuff isn't really as expensive as it sounds.
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I mean I highly doubt that, regular rail cost less the half hsr.

Unfortunately moving passengers to hsr to open up regular railroad could be a fine idea, Unfortunately it usually gust means regular rail dosnt get enough money to stay useful, see chinas rail network.
 
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There also needs to be consideration for the homes, businesses and jobs lost. Ancient woodland and buildings that are significant.
hs2 has been described as a 20 minute journey saving for a few of the better off while the majority of passengers continue on the slow lines. How many can afford the already exorbitant prices to stand for long periods? Do any of the proponents of hs2 really see the average commuter on high speed trains? I could not afford it at the best of times.
 
HS2 will free up a lot capacity on local lines, which are currently also being used for intercity high speed services. Best way to drive down prices is to increase capacity, not to mention HS2 is also competing with short-haul flights, so the fewer of those the fewer carbon emissions.

HS2 has been pretty good at avoiding ancient woodland, but we can't preserve the country in aspic forever, we will have to invest in infrastructure and build more houses, and denser cities and modal shift will reduce carbon emissions more than the occasional tree.
 
Consider the carbon cost of the demolition, building the line AND replacement homes, across the route, more than 40, 000 has been mentioned at various times. I have no idea what the real number is but, we are already short of homes and taking in more refugee's than ever. Joined up thinking is required, not bullet point turd polishing.
 
Foo Fighter said:
Consider the carbon cost of the demolition, building the line AND replacement homes, across the route, more than 40, 000 has been mentioned at various times. I have no idea what the real number is but, we are already short of homes and taking in more refugee's than ever. Joined up thinking is required, not bullet point turd polishing.
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If you want joined up thinking, HS2 is closest possible infrastructure project in Britain to that. Every infrastructure project has incurred carbon, HS2s is a fraction of that of even individual components of RIS2 (which includes 50 projects), and it's lifetime carbon emissions are also going to be much lower.

This government will not build houses as a result of their electoral base, that problem is going to be solved this side of 2024, and existing housing supply is so strained that an extra 40,000 units would not make that much difference (if it were along the lines of 4 million that would be a different question)

I think it's also worth pointing out that if HS2 dies, that money is not going to be spent on anything else. There will be no improvements in local rail or bus services, the long money raised was specifically for this project. Not to mention that those who have so strenuously argued against HS2 will not rest when it comes to other investments.

Of course Phase I is already under construction, and tunnel boring machines are working under the Chilterns as we speak, so some of it will be completed, and given the under threat sections of Phase 2a and 2b weren't due to be completed until the 2040s there is fairly good chance that they will resurrected and completed on the same timescale even if they are cancelled now, as the capacity issues will still exist, and this is the cheapest option there is relative to the amount of improvement it will bring about.
 
The amount of concrete being poured is astonishing! No mention of ticket prices, so I it's hard to predict who will be using it (unless someone else is paying).
 

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