CONCLUSION
Dragonfly—NASA’s newest New Frontiers Program mission led by APL—is a rotorcraft lander mission designed to explore diverse locations and characterize the habitability of Saturn’s moon, Titan. While previous New Frontiers missions cost approximately $1 billion and launched on a 5-year cadence, Dragonfly’s current cost and schedule commitments far exceed predecessor missions. The project’s current baseline commitment is $3.35 billion with a July 2028 launch readiness date. Since its selection in 2019, the project has undergone multiple replans impacting cost and schedule, resulting in a life-cycle cost increase of nearly $1 billion and over 2 years of delays.
We found that Dragonfly’s complex design, aggressive schedule, and limited UFE introduces significant challenges as the project continues its development. Further, these cost increases and schedule delays have led to an extension of the New Frontiers Program’s launch cadence and a corresponding postponement of future New Frontiers missions. The Program that once launched missions on a 5-year cadence will now have at least a 12-year gap in launches. Dragonfly’s current EVM performance metrics indicate it is experiencing significant cost and schedule challenges with achieving mission success within established baseline commitments. These challenges may also be compounded by the uncertainty in NASA’s future budget environment.
