Canada Future fighter capability project (ex-Next Generation Fighter Capability)

interim stop-gap + longer-term solution (e.g. second hand Eurofighters + GCAP)

This could actually be the most sensible move....

Canada needs a fighter sooner rather than later...specifically for air defence of Canada.

The ideal would be, if it were available now, GCAP due to its enormous range, payload capacity, LO etc etc...but most of all it will be ITAR free...Canada joining as an Observer clearly seems to see some value in it as well...

But getting the F/A-18 out to GCAP service entry is impossible. They're already pretty much committed to 30 x F-35A now...but they could do with another 50 or so interceptors, specifically for homeland defence. The F-35A can fill the deployable capability to NATO after all...

So...why not some secondhand Tranche 1 Typhoon to tide them over? Most are getting retired with at least half their airframe hours left....and its a spectacularly reliable, and accident free, platform...which is rather important for any flights over Canada's northern wastes...plus it will happily outclass any Russian aviation it actually comes close to....

There are 2 Tranche 1 users (UK and Italy) who would be very happy to get Canada 50 x Typhoon T1's at a very, very low price to tide them over until delivery of GCAP could be made....
 
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This could actually be the most sensible move....

Canada needs a fighter sooner rather than later...specifically for air defence of Canada.

The ideal would be, if it were available now, GCAP due to its enormous range, payload capacity, LO etc etc...but most of all it will be ITAR free...Canada joining as an Observer clearly seems to see some value in it as well...

But getting the F/A-18 out to GCAP service is impossible. They're already pretty much committed to 30 x F-35A now...but they could do with another 50 or so interceptors, specifically for homeland defence. The F-35A can fill the deployable capability to NATO after all...

So...why not some secondhand Tranche 1 Typhoon to tide them over? Most are getting retired with at least half their airframe hours left....and its a spectacularly reliable, and accident free, platform...which is rather important for any flights over Canada's northern wastes...plus it will happily outclass any Russian aviation it actually comes close to....

There are 2 Tranche 1 users (UK and Italy) who would be very happy to get Canada 50 x Typhoon T1's at a very, very low price to tide them over until delivery of GCAP could be made....
I like the idea, only the issue of a dual fleet from a cost perspective makes it difficult but if they are coming cheaper as second hand airframes then it reduces that. T1s are also not meteor capable but I assume could use AIM-120D?
 
I like the idea, only the issue of a dual fleet from a cost perspective makes it difficult but if they are coming cheaper as second hand airframes then it reduces that. T1s are also not meteor capable but I assume could use AIM-120D?

AIM-120-C7/8 should be ok, Austria was pursuing it. Don't think they have had the D-3 variant integrated (the UK purchased the D-3 for the F-35B fleet in lieu of Meteor integration).

With the retirement of the Spanish and German T1's the only competition for spares would be Austria's small fleet until 2032/35 when they get retired (and become available), so Canada could definitely accumulate enough spares to operate well into the 2040's with no real issues whatsoever with spares, maintenance and flying hours.
 
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While the trade war is real what isn't and has never been taken seriously by the Canadian Govt is the annexation claims. Were that to be the case then military cooperation would have ceased, it most certainly hasn't, and the ordering of new military equipment from the US would have ceased, it most certainly hasn't.

Most of our heavy equipment is located at a few centralised bases. The messaging to the Canadian public has been that our military simulations show our conventional armed forces being wiped out in a few days, and the contingency plans being considered would involve dispersing weapons among the public and engaging in a Guerrilla campaign. Under such a scenario, even if we felt there was a severe threat, then there might be more benefits for maintaining cooperation as the information we'd gain would be more useful than the information they would gain.

I cannot say for certain the view within the Prime Minister's office, or whether the plans to expand military training (etc.) are just for show to a domestic audience.

What I can say definitively is that a lot of Canadians, including a lot of Canadian veterans and service members, take these threats seriously. The mood on the ground is definitely that the threat to sovereignty is greater than the threat of unemployment due to a trade war.

What short strips does the RCAF use for fighter jets in the Canadian North? The answer is none because there are none. From a Billie Flynn blog here

He also has a second runway myth here worth reviewing.

Goose Bay is fairly far north. However, to reach the Western Arctic and even parts of the Central Arctic we've needed forward refuelling positions. There are no highways that far north (e.g. due to permafrost), so we're not talking about a Scandinavian approach to dispersal. But we're talking about icy runways, and relatively short strips, in very harsh conditions.

But in acquiring Gripen the RCAF spends more money. The acquisition cost is little different, the operating cost not enough to make up for duplicating all the things needed to support a dual fleet of fighters and the reason the RCAF went to a single fleet with the CF-18 and why the new Canadian fighter capability was also for a single fleet.

True. If we purchased the Gripen, it would make sense to sell the CF-35 portion of the fleet to an allied operator. A dual fleet doesn't make much sense for a country our size.


What technological transfer can Saab actually provide? What is unique about the Gripen that Canadian industry does not already understand? The radar isn't Swedish, the engine isn't Swedish, the IRST isn't Swedish. Only about 30% by content is actually Swedish origin.

You might be under-estimating the appeal of having avionics or systems made by other European countries: Sweden being an EU member who has partnerships with manufacturers in other European countries, it could act as a bridge to further defense cooperation.

You can look up the polling data and you'll find that Canadians currently support a pivot towards integrating with (or even joining) the EU... even more-so than strengthening ties with the Commonwealth. I agree that the Eurofighter or Rafale might have a more compelling case... and that the Gripen might be little more than an advance trainer to keep capacities up while waiting for FCAS though.

I feel I've answered all of your other points in previous points.
 
Canada needs a fighter sooner rather than later...specifically for air defence of Canada.

I wonder if Boeing has any BOMARCs left over?

P.S. On a serious note - if the airframes have enough hours, than I think the idea could have merit.
 
At the moment Saab does not project the A3 CCA arriving before 2035-40 timeframe and only capable of SEAD/DEAD after 2040 at the earliest...

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What does Canada give up by aligning itself with a CCA that is likely going to be 5 years minimum behind US/UK systems and like the Gripen E probably be late into service.

Some basic observations (which might be a bit obvious in retrospect?):
- Requirements for CCAs and SEAD/DEAD CCAs don't need to be as stringent as they would be for manned aircraft. A simplified version of the Gripen NG avionics in a CCA platform will likely be relevant for one or two decades longer than an identical manned platform would be.
- Joining a program earlier in its development increases the likelihood of workshare, especially R&D workshare where more technology transfer is likely to happen. This actually make cooperation more attractive, not less.
- Sweden is a smaller country, so we'd be more equal partners in any negotiations.
 
Most of our heavy equipment is located at a few centralised bases. The messaging to the Canadian public has been that our military simulations show our conventional armed forces being wiped out in a few days, and the contingency plans being considered would involve dispersing weapons among the public and engaging in a Guerrilla campaign. Under such a scenario, even if we felt there was a severe threat, then there might be more benefits for maintaining cooperation as the information we'd gain would be more useful than the information they would gain.
This statement should not be taken seriously.
I cannot say for certain the view within the Prime Minister's office, or whether the plans to expand military training (etc.) are just for show to a domestic audience.

What I can say definitively is that a lot of Canadians, including a lot of Canadian veterans and service members, take these threats seriously. The mood on the ground is definitely that the threat to sovereignty is greater than the threat of unemployment due to a trade war.
I've seen the polling and it does not match what you are saying. Canadians overwhelmingly are not in favor of paying more for anything and a trade war is a far more important issue than the trolling threats of annexation.
Goose Bay is fairly far north. However, to reach the Western Arctic and even parts of the Central Arctic we've needed forward refuelling positions. There are no highways that far north (e.g. due to permafrost), so we're not talking about a Scandinavian approach to dispersal. But we're talking about icy runways, and relatively short strips, in very harsh conditions.
Again, there are no short runways in the north that either platform would operate from. Norway uses a drogue chute with the F-35A that would be more than sufficient for Canadian use and I believe has been ordered.
True. If we purchased the Gripen, it would make sense to sell the CF-35 portion of the fleet to an allied operator. A dual fleet doesn't make much sense for a country our size.
Why would anyone sell the F-35 to buy a Gripen. Doing so invalidates Canada's ability to meet their NOATO commitments for a start. Literally anyone who has had the opportunity to buy the F-35 over the Gripen has done so. The only reason the Gripen is being considered is because it is not the F-35 and was the last aircraft left in the race. It is not capable of meeting the missions the RCAF need, the evaluation made that clear.
You might be under-estimating the appeal of having avionics or systems made by other European countries: Sweden being an EU member who has partnerships with manufacturers in other European countries, it could act as a bridge to further defense cooperation.
And why then would those companies allow their products to be manufactured in Canada compared to their own domestic industries?
I agree that the Eurofighter or Rafale might have a more compelling case... and that the Gripen might be little more than an advance trainer to keep capacities up while waiting for FCAS though.
Canada has prided itself on meeting its international commitments. A Gripen does not allow that to happen and any Canadian GCAP is not coming until 2040 at the earliest. Meanwhile even if Canada decided on Gripen E today the first would not come out of a Canadian factory until approx 2032.
I feel I've answered all of your other points in previous points.
I don't think you have answered much at all. Just broad brush hand waving and not an actual appreciation for how poorly a decision it would be for Canada to acquire the Gripen.

Some basic observations (which might be a bit obvious in retrospect?):
- Requirements for CCAs and SEAD/DEAD CCAs don't need to be as stringent as they would be for manned aircraft. A simplified version of the Gripen NG avionics in a CCA platform will likely be relevant for one or two decades longer than an identical manned platform would be.
A leap that isn't based on any valid information. There is nothing special about Gripen E avionics that allows it to function till 2050/60. Even by 2035 the CCA market will have moved far beyond what Saab is promising with A3, it is just a means for them to get the Swedish Govt to continue to subsidize Saab manufacturing.
- Joining a program earlier in its development increases the likelihood of workshare, especially R&D workshare where more technology transfer is likely to happen. This actually make cooperation more attractive, not less.
- Sweden is a smaller country, so we'd be more equal partners in any negotiations.
Joining a program that doesn't deliver a meaningful product that would stand up in the face of modern threats isn't a viable business case. What about the A3 gives you confidence that Saab can deliver a product that the market wants? The Gripen A/C/E has proven that it has essentially no export appeal despite Saab promising for many years on prospects for 400 or more exports of each platform and again the evaluation conducted by Canada has proven has far behind the Gripen is to the F-35. Why would the A3 be any different?
 
I wonder if Boeing has any BOMARCs left over?

P.S. On a serious note - if the airframes have enough hours, than I think the idea could have merit.
The RAF ones are the most heavily used....and they're not even at half of their airframe hours...despite what some of the claims on the internet say under Project TyTan the RAF and BAE got cost per flight down to late model F-16 levels...availability with Typhoon is also spectacularly high. RAF believes its the most reliable combat aircraft its ever had...by a margin.

There will be well over 100 Tranche 1 coming available over the next 5 years...and all of the operating countries are close Canada allies who would be keen to keep Canada connected to Europe.
 
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