Another Malaysian Airliner down - in East Ukraine

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sublight is back said:
Mode S doesn't work in the middle of nowhere (ocean)

That's ( mostly ) not Mode-S being shown, that's ADS-B which is an overlay of the Mode-S specification and it works just fine in the middle of the ocean. GPS-resolution position reporting for anyone within UHF range who wants to receive it; it's not encrypted or obfuscated.

If you want shore stations to receive position reports for mid-ocean flights then FANS / ADS-C already exists.

But I don't see how that would have helped in this situation anyhow; the firers of the missile(s) had the same access to this data as anyone else but apparently chose to ignore it. Everyone else knew where the aircraft was down to a five-second interval.

We need a global system that cannot be disabled

Once you start discussing systems that cannot be turned-off / tripped you have to assess the loss-risk from equipment failure & fire versus the real-world benefits. For that reason *everything* on an airliner can be tripped-out today except for the ELT, and we've seen the problems that can cause...
 
Arjen said:
NY Times has information about MH17's flight path and how some airlines were avoiding Ukrainian airspace


There will inevitably be questions as to why Russia closed the A87 path - the continuation of MH17's flight path - hours before the shootdown.
 

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If you are operating an airline, is it really a good idea to run a route over Ukraine when there are increasing hostilities and plenty of Russian hardware? This was inevitable. There were some pilots who had complained and were ignored.
 
Sorry, shoudn't post before I'm fully awake.

Still, I think it's a bit unfair to blame the airlines when their best sources of information (ICAO and the local aviation authorities) have indicated that their flight route was safe. It's also worth noting that this wasn't exactly the regular air lane; they normally track a bit further south but rerouted north to clear some bad weather.
 
Avimimus said:
The Separatists may have tanks according to one sighting but don't seem to think they have the ADA capability...

The "separatists" raided a former Ukrainian arms depot/garrison in the area on 29 June. Stored there were, among other things, Buk SAM systems. The problem with all of this is how they managed to be smart enough to make a Buk TELAR operate.
 
SOC said:
how they managed to be smart enough to make a Buk TELAR operate.

A bunch of Ukrainian soldiers and sailors "defected" in Crimea; it would not surprise me of the separatists had on staff some of the very troops who were trained and operated these systems.
 
Orionblamblam said:
A bunch of Ukrainian soldiers and sailors "defected" in Crimea; it would not surprise me of the separatists had on staff some of the very troops who were trained and operated these systems.

Or that some of the Russian "volunteers" are trained on the use of such systems.
 
"Lavrov: Russia won’t take control of Malaysian plane’s black boxes"
Published time: July 18, 2014 11:46
Edited time: July 18, 2014 12:39

Source:
http://rt.com/news/173820-ukraine-plane-black-boxes/

Moscow has no plans to seize the flight recorders from the Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which crashed in eastern Ukraine on Thursday, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, told Rossiya 24 channel.

The seizure of flight records would violate international law as it’s up to relevant international agencies to investigate of the incident, he explained.

The analysis of the flight recorders “is the responsibility of ICAO [International Civil Aviation Organization]; it’s the responsibility of those states which have the most direct connection to this tragedy – the Netherlands, Malaysia and the states whose citizens were on board, and of course Ukraine,” Lavrov said.

The minister also called on the UN Security Council to urgently launch an open and impartial investigation into the plane crash in Ukraine.

“We want international experts to arrive on the crash site as soon as possible and retrieve the flight recorders in an instant," the FM stressed. “Despite statements coming from Kiev, we have no plans to seize the flight recorders.”

The minister welcomed the plans of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to create a special commission to investigate the tragedy, but stressed that such a “group must be put together urgently, as soon as possible.”

The claims by the Ukrainian authorities that the crash of the Malaysian passenger jet was a terrorist act are unacceptable, Lavrov stressed.

“The Ukrainian investigators will be guided in their work [by those statements], which is unacceptable pressure on the activities of the commission,” he explained.

The Ukrainian emergency services have found two flight recorders at the Malaysian plane’s crash site, Konstantin Batozsky, an adviser to the Donetsk regional administration, said.

“Two flight recorders have been discovered by our emergency services. I have no information about where those flight recorders are at the moment,” Batozsky is cited by Interfax-Ukraine.

Previously, the self-defense forces of the People’s Republic of Donetsk announced that they had found the Malaysia Airlines MH17 flight recorders.

However, the self-proclaimed republic’s prime minister, Aleksandr Boroday, later said that he can’t confirm this information.

“The items, which were earlier discovered by our troops, most likely, aren’t flight recorders,” Boroday is cited by Interfax.

Ukrainian Buk battery radar was operational when Malaysian plane downed - Moscow

The Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 carrying almost 300 people on board crashed on Thursday as it was flying over Ukraine’s Donetsk Region.

The plane was apparently shot down by a surface-to-air missile, although both Kiev and the local militias fighting against it deny responsibility.
 
"Why Was Malaysia Airlines MH17 Flying Over Ukraine? Time, Money"

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-plane-crash/why-was-malaysia-airlines-mh17-flying-over-ukraine-time-money-n159161
 
In any event, it's unclear what political benefit anyone might have for tinkering with or disappearing the black boxes. Since the cause of the plane coming down is acknowledged as an external missile, I doubt the black boxes could really add a whole lot. Had the plane broken up due to an *internal* cause (sabotage, mechanical failure, bomb, hijacking, etc.) *then* there might be something to learn/hide.
 
Orionblamblam said:
In any event, it's unclear what political benefit anyone might have for tinkering with or disappearing the black boxes. Since the cause of the plane coming down is acknowledged as an external missile, I doubt the black boxes could really add a whole lot. Had the plane broken up due to an *internal* cause (sabotage, mechanical failure, bomb, hijacking, etc.) *then* there might be something to learn/hide.

Perhaps with the facts of the incident being in dispute, statements and retractions, allegations, and specific denials, the disappearance of the flight recorders (black boxes) might introduce uncertainty and doubt over what really happened to MH17? So far the evidence has been circumstantial and the propaganda machine may want some wiggle room.
 
Every guerrilla handbook states that when the battle against a regular army seems to be lost, best option is to internationalize the conflict
 
At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, who had/has the most to gain from this...
 
HIV apparently, and tragically.

Personally - I don't think anyone really has much to gain from shooting down a civilian airliner. It isn't like this is Kaleva OH-ALL in 1940... and the claim that it was a shot at Putin's plain was hogwash.

The question should be: who is most likely to play at being a general and get trigger happy?? Unfortunately, the answer is pretty much - everyone.

We build SAMs and we're surprised they get used.

Triton said:
Orionblamblam said:
In any event, it's unclear what political benefit anyone might have for tinkering with or disappearing the black boxes. Since the cause of the plane coming down is acknowledged as an external missile, I doubt the black boxes could really add a whole lot. Had the plane broken up due to an *internal* cause (sabotage, mechanical failure, bomb, hijacking, etc.) *then* there might be something to learn/hide.

Perhaps with the facts of the incident being in dispute, statements and retractions, allegations, and specific denials, the disappearance of the flight recorders (black boxes) might introduce uncertainty and doubt over what really happened to MH17? So far the evidence has been circumstantial and the propaganda machine may want some wiggle room.

Well, the real question is - assuming their is a BUK in rebel hands - will it survive long enough to identify if it is missing a missile. Medium/long-range SAMs are harder to lose than MANPADs - so we should be able to track it down on the logistics chain.

Not that it really matters - this is a case of negligence most likely and nothing can bring the passengers back.
 
With this tragedy, the pressure is on for the United States and Europe to act in the Ukraine civil war.
 
From @PentagonPresSec "Very strong evidence" that it was a SAM fired from an area controlled by separatist likely on Ukraine side of border
 
"Tragedy on Top of Crisis May Strengthen Stand Against Russia in U.S. and Europe"
By PETER BAKER and MICHAEL D. SHEARJULY 17, 2014

Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/tragedy-on-top-of-crisis-may-strengthen-stand-against-russia-in-us-and-europe.html
 
Triton said:
With this tragedy, the pressure is on for the United States and Europe to act in the Ukraine civil war.


Act in an objective, impartial way (under the banner of the UN) but do not take sides would be my recommendation.
 
GTX said:
Act in an objective, impartial way (under the banner of the UN) but do not take sides would be my recommendation.

Highly unlikely considering the opposition's criticism of the Obama Administration.
 
Triton said:
With this tragedy, the pressure is on for the United States and Europe to act in the Ukraine civil war.

Indeed ! We'll hear very sharp protests from Brussels and Washington, I'm sure !
Or are we expecting an NATO invasion in the Ukraine now ?

Anderman said:

More than just one :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerolinee_Itavia_Flight_870

We should keep in mind, that still yet nobody knows for sure, what really happened.
"..it was a SAM fired from an area controlled by separatist likely on Ukraine side of border.." leaves
many possible explanations:

- It were the separatists accidentally
- It were the separatists, deliberatly to blame the Ukraine later
- It were the Ukrainian forces accidentally
- It were the Ukrainian forces to blame the separatists

Hard to make reasonable decisions that way and not very useful to start fierce discussions.
 
Jemiba said:
We should keep in mind, that still yet nobody knows for sure, what really happened.
"..it was a SAM fired from an area controlled by separatist likely on Ukraine side of border.." leaves
many possible explanations:

- It were the separatists accidentally
- It were the separatists, deliberatly to blame the Ukraine later
- It were the Ukrainian forces accidentally
- It were the Ukrainian forces to blame the separatists

Hard to make reasonable decisions that way and not very useful to start fierce discussions.


Exactly! Unfortunately though that has not stopped people from jumping to conclusions…and typically conclusions that match their own biases and motivations. Sadly, I think the truth is already a casualty in this…not that many would want to hear it anyway.
 
"Russia Today reporter resigns in protest at MH17 coverage"
Sara Firth criticises Kremlin-backed news channel’s ‘disrespect for facts’ in reports about Malaysia Airlines plane disaster
by John Plunkett
theguardian.com, Friday 18 July 2014 09.31 EDT

Source:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/18/mh17-russia-today-reporter-resigns-sara-firth-kremlin-malaysia
 
From a purely technical and operational standpoint, all I've seen is pictures of a single BUK TELAR, allegedly/possibly/maybe/probably/likely/definitely (take your pick) belonging to the rebels and no other BUK system component vehicle. The TELAR has the tracking radar, which provides a rather limited search capability and definitely in a narrow arc (to achieve 360 degree coverage the whole radar/missile turntable should be constantly rotating. The point is that a single TELAR has limited autonomous target location and engagement capability and needs the battery search radar (hosted on another vehicle). Most of the pictures from the area also show significant cloud cover, quite likely limiting the use of the onboard camera system to engage an aircraft flying at high altitude. Therefore, the question is: If MH17 was indeed shot down by a BUK missile, who handled target location and identification prior to assignment to a TELAR for engagement and from where?
The 9S35 Fire Dome tracking and illumination radar first emerged as part of the transitional 2K12M3/M4 Kub M4 / SA-6 Gainful, carried by the semi-autonomous 2P25MZ TELAR. The intent behind the design was to permit a larger number of concurrent engagements, by putting a track/illuminate radar on to every single TEL in the SA-6 battery to support engagements using the 3M9M3/9M9M3 SAM round. With the advent of the new 9K37 Buk / SA-11 Gadfly, the 9S35 was adapted for the new 9A38 TELAR and associated 9M38 SAM rounds. The 9S35 is mounted on the front of the TELAR turret, the aft section containing the elevating launch rails for four SAM rounds.

The 9S35 Fire Dome provides a limited search and acquisition capability, a tracking capability and CW illumination for terminal guidance of the semi-active homing SAM seekers. It incorporates an IFF interrogator, optical tracker, datalink, and is powered by the TELAR's gas turbine generator. A shared antenna is employed for two X-band transmit/receive channels. These respectively provide a pulsed mode for search and track functions, with linear chirp for compression, and a CW mode for illumination. Monopulse angle tracking is employed for jam resistance. For target tracking the antenna and feed system provide a mainlobe with 2.5° width in azimuth and 1.3° in elevation. For CW illumination the antenna and feed system provide a mainlobe with 1.4° width in azimuth and 2.65° in elevation.

Operating autonomously, the 9S35 will take 4 seconds to sweep a 120° sector, with an elevation of 6° to 7°. When cued to acquire and track, with will take 2 seconds to sweep a 10° x 7° az/elev solid angle. Average power output in pulsed tracking modes varies between 0.5 and 1 kiloWatt, with CW illumination at 2 kiloWatts. The search and monopulse angle tracking receivers are both rated at a Noise Figure of NF=10 dB. The range error is cited at 175 metres, the angular error at less than 1°. The radar can switch from standby mode to combat operation in twenty seconds.
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Engagement-Fire-Control.html#mozTocId926428
 
Jemiba said:
Or are we expecting an NATO invasion in the Ukraine now ?

Here we're starting to slip into discussion areas that make the mods get twitchy. But it seems to me that the best approach for *everyone* would not be a "NATO invasion," but a NATO/EU peacekeeping force of a few hundred thousand Germans and Brits and Danes and Dutch and Poles and such to set up shop in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Not take over the joint, but since local governance has kinda collapsed, go through the military hardware that has apparently been left lying around for chuckleheads to pick up and fire at, say, jetliners. That hardware that belongs to Russia, ship back to Russia. That which belongs to Ukraine, ship back to the Ukranian government. Turn eastern Ukraine and Crimea into demilitarized zones until things settle down.

Since the Dutch seem to have taken the brunt of the blow from the shootdown, it seems appropriate that they should have operational command.
 
IMHO, France and Germany have been as politicising as the U.S. on the Ukrainian situation, Canada is even less neutral. Russian peacekeepers might make sense - but that could turn into annexation... Well, a joint Swedish/Swiss UN Peacekeeping force might be the way to go?

Or just go to peacetalks and some type of regionalism (with a Crimea that is independent of Russia and the Ukraine on the table)? But that is a different matter than an airliner being lost.
 
Orionblamblam said:
and Poles
Among the population of the Eastern Ukraine?
Recipe for disaster, if you ask me. It'll be like waving a steak in front of a pack of hungry dogs. As to who'll be the steak and who the dogs, well, both.
 
Alleged video showing Buk missile launcher being flatbedded back to Russia?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2014/07/18/new-video-allegedly-shows-buk-missile-system-en-route-to-russia/
 
bobbymike said:

From the very first line of this: "A short video posted to YouTube by the Ukrainian government"….hmmm, me thinks I will accept an impartial source for this thank you. The Ukrainian Govt has been very quick with posting all sorts of supposed "information" which of course aids their cause.
 
bobbymike said:
Alleged video showing Buk missile launcher being flatbedded back to Russia?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2014/07/18/new-video-allegedly-shows-buk-missile-system-en-route-to-russia/

13 seconds... and there have been a bunch of videos in the past few weeks showing Ukrainian Government BUK launchers being deployed into the region... which is contested. It sounds like a propaganda line trying to implicate Russia to me... it is hard to see them trying to disappear an entire BUK unit in order to cover-up the fact that they had and used one... But who knows?

Any thoughts on this website? - http://rusvesna.su/news/1404041521

Might be a more credible source for how much heavy equipment they've actually obtained...
 
The problem with trying to claim that the Ukrainian government did this is... what sort of air force do the separatists have? The separatists have been shooting down Ukrainian aircraft for a while, but what does Ukrainian AA have to shoot at?
 
Orionblamblam said:
The problem with trying to claim that the Ukrainian government did this is... what sort of air force do the separatists have? The separatists have been shooting down Ukrainian aircraft for a while, but what does Ukrainian AA have to shoot at?

Russian incursions presumably... unless you believe it is all rhetoric on the part of the Ukrainian government. They certainly try to portray it, not as a civil war, but as a Russian backed paramilitary operation in preparation for possible annexation... so I wouldn't be surprised if they are on guard. Ukraine has certainly been talking up the idea and deploying SAM batteries...

Besides - It isn't like this hasn't happened before in calmer times: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812
 
Avimimus said:
Russian incursions presumably...

As a general rule of thumb, you can expect "rebels" to be a bit more trigger happy and chuckleheaded than regular military. And while the Ukrainian military is not doubt leery of Russian overflights, you'd expect them to be hesitant to pull the trigger since that would give Putin an excuse.
 
Not sure what the point of peacekeepers would be. To maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine or let the secessionists peacefully secede from the government in Kyiv?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe#mediaviewer/File:2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine.png
 

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