Anglo-French RR Spey timeline

Archibald

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Step 1 - DH.121 is not shrunk into the Trident, and give the Boeing 727 a run for its money
Does the BAC-111 have Medways instead of Speys? Allowing it to have a proper development programme would allow it to give the Boeing 737 and Douglas DC-9 a run for their money.

The more the merrier ! This story goal, after all, is world dominance of the Medway - Spey family. :p
 

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Snip to Post 39.
The extra sales are going to give Rolls Royce a healthy bank balance. That is until 1971.

Would the experience from the Medway and Spey reduce the RB.211s cost and time overruns?

If it did, do you think that the increased income and reduced expenditure would have prevented the frim from becoming bankrupt?
 

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Snip to Post 39.
More Tridents means more cash for Hawker Siddeley and more BAC-111s means more cash for the British Aircraft Corporation.

What do you think they'd do with the money?

I think Hawker Siddeley would use their money to pay for a bigger stake in Airbus after HMG pulls out. However, if HS is selling more Tridents and BAC is selling more One-Elevens HMG might think that investing in expensive civil airliner projects is worthwhile and not pull out.

If Boeing is selling many less 727s due to competition from the Big Trident will it develop the 737? And further down the line will there be a 757 to replace the 727 or the 767/777 to fill the gap between 727/757 and the 747? If so I presume it's more sales for the A300 and A310.

If (McDonnell) Douglas is selling fewer DC-9s due to competition from the BAC-111 will it develop the DC-10? If so I presume Lockheed sells 350 Tristars (with 1,050 RB.211s) and the 60 KC-10 Extenders are tanker versions of the Tristar instead of tanker versions of the DC-10. Therefore, another 180 RB.211s sold.

If Boeing is selling many less 727s, Douglas is selling many less DC-9s and Boeing is selling many less or even no 737s the sales of JT-8Ds will be dramatically reduced too. Will P&W have the money to develop JT-9D? If it can't that's more sales for the GE CF6 and RB.211 by default.

And to "rub it in" some of the Boeing 727s, 737s and Douglas DC-9s that are still built are fitted with Medways built under licence by Allison instead of P&W JT8Ds.
 
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If....if Government had allowed it RR Medway was the preferred engine on OR.339 submissions, rather than BS Olympus.
Assuming funding for TSR.2, Viggen will follow. Reheat addition is already funded in TSR.2 effort.
Making license for Mirage F2 F3 G etc....an easier proposition.
Furthermore reheat is based on US licensed technology, so a potential advocate for Medway would exist in the US.......
If Medway is chosen for the TSR.2 will it also be chosen for Concorde?
Drats, forgot the TSR.2.
In the words of Dick Dastardly "Double drat!"

An earlier Marine Spey instead of the Marine Olympus or Marine Medway instead of Marine Olympus?

Dick Dastardly occasionally said, "And treble drat!"
 
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Archibald

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If....if Government had allowed it RR Medway was the preferred engine on OR.339 submissions, rather than BS Olympus.
Assuming funding for TSR.2, Viggen will follow. Reheat addition is already funded in TSR.2 effort.
Making license for Mirage F2 F3 G etc....an easier proposition.
Furthermore reheat is based on US licensed technology, so a potential advocate for Medway would exist in the US.......
If Medway is chosen for theTSR.2 will it also be chosen for Concorde?
Drats, forgot the TSR.2.
In the words of Dick Dastardly "Double drat!"

An earlier Marine Spey instead of the Marine Olympus or Marine Medway instead of Marine Olympus?

Dick Dastardly occasionally said, "And treble drat!"

As long as it is not a Marine Lepen, it should be ok...
 

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Step 5 - the subscale Medway called Spey finds its way into the Buccaneer S.2, and then into the F-4K
The Spey for F-4K took longer do develop than estimated and the R&D cost was about £50M instead of the estimated £25M.

Will it be developed faster and and less expensively in your timeline? That is because it might benefit from the work done on the reheated version of the Medway.
 

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Step 8 - Meanwhile, in France... SNECMA is doing a good job with Medway, then Spey. By 1962 the subscale engine is licenced for the Mirage III-V; F2; F3; G. Eventually the French derive the M53 out of the Spey for larger twin-engine types. The Mirage F3 greatly benefits from this, screwing both F1-Atar and Mirage 2000 in passing. Belgium takes a handful of F3s in 1973, followed by South Africa.
So the twin-Spey Mirage F3 for France, Belgium and South Africa instead of the Mirage F1 and Mirage F3s with 2 M53s for France instead of the Mirage 2000. Have I interpreted that correctly?

Will Dassault still develop the Mirage F1? That is to sell to air forces that couldn't afford the F3? Except that it will have a single Spey engine instead of the Atar 9K-50.

Can the Mirage III/5/50 airframe take a Spey? If will the aircraft that had the Atar 9K-50 in the "real world" have Spey engines in this timeline?
 

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Step 5 - the subscale Medway called Spey finds its way into the Buccaneer S.2, and then into the F-4K
There's no civil Spey for the Trident so development of the military Spey for the Buccaneer can be begun several years earlier. In fact early enough for some of the 20 development aircraft to be fitted with Speys and the 40 production S.1s of our timeline are built to S.2 standard in this timeline.
Step 6 - Allison jumps into the fray, takes a Spey licence for the USAF A-7D; the USN likes the idea, ditches the TF30 for the A-7E - and both go TF41. Rolls Royce has now crashed their way into the US military pot of gold.
The A-7 prototype flew in September 1965 and the A-7A entered service in February 1967.

You probably could have substituted the P&W TF30s on the prototypes and A-7A/B/C with Allison-built Speys without starting development of the military Spey sooner. With the earlier development proposed in my reply to Step 5 it's certain.

That's another 460-odd TF-41s (plus spares) for Allison and 460-odd TF30s (plus spares) less for P&W.
Step 7 - This snowballs into the doomed F-111B, then into the Tomcat. Uncle Sam learns to appreciate the Spey, in comparison with that TF30 piece of junk. The engine is very welcome as a stopgap before the F100 and F101 - and the troubled F401, making it even more useful to the Tomcat in the long term...
I'm confused here. Do the F-14A and F-111B have the TF-41 instead of TF30?

If that's the case do the F-111A/C/D/E/F and FB-111A have TF-41 instead of TF30 too? If it is I wonder if the engines on the this timeline version of F-111K would have RR built Speys or Allison built TF-41s.

I believe that Boeing's submission to TFX had Speys. Is that also correct?
 

A Tentative Fleet Plan

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If....if Government had allowed it RR Medway was the preferred engine on OR.339 submissions, rather than BS Olympus.
Assuming funding for TSR.2, Viggen will follow. Reheat addition is already funded in TSR.2 effort.
Making license for Mirage F2 F3 G etc....an easier proposition.
Furthermore reheat is based on US licensed technology, so a potential advocate for Medway would exist in the US.......
If Medway is chosen for the TSR.2 will it also be chosen for Concorde?
Drats, forgot the TSR.2.
In the words of Dick Dastardly "Double drat!"

An earlier Marine Spey instead of the Marine Olympus or Marine Medway instead of Marine Olympus?

Dick Dastardly occasionally said, "And treble drat!"
What about a Marine RB.211?

Screenshot_20211019-223411~2.png

Source:

The same document also mentions the possibility of a Marine Rolls-Royce/SNECMA M45H.
 

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Step 1 - DH.121 is not shrunk into the Trident, and give the Boeing 727 a run for its money
In that case the Nimrod's a modified "Big Trident" with Medway engines instead of a modified Comet with Spey engines.

The "Little Trident" was in production until 1978 and the "Big Trident" will be in production until 1984 if it gives the Boeing 727 "a run for its money". That will make it easier to sell the Nimrod on the export market.
 

A Tentative Fleet Plan

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I'm confused here. Do the F-14A and F-111B have the TF-41 instead of TF30?

If that's the case do the F-111A/C/D/E/F and FB-111A have TF-41 instead of TF30 too? If it is I wonder if the engines on the this timeline version of F-111K would have RR built Speys or Allison built TF-41s.

I believe that Boeing's submission to TFX had Speys. Is that also correct?
I believe the Boeing Submission was originally designed around the General-Electric MF-295 (as was everyone elses, given that it theoretically offered better performance than the TF-30, whilst being smaller) and had to be modified for the TF-30.
 

Archibald

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F-111B gets TF41s in desperation circa 1965-66; it needed a better engine than USAF F-111 for many obvious reasons.
A-7D and A-7E show the way.
Then the Tomcat inherit TF41s from the F-111B.
And when the F401 fails miserably, it carries on with TF41s.

The USN could even consider a batch of TF41s F-4K for its last Essex carriers...
 

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Step 8 - Meanwhile, in France... SNECMA is doing a good job with Medway, then Spey. By 1962 the subscale engine is licenced for the Mirage III-V; F2; F3; G. Eventually the French derive the M53 out of the Spey for larger twin-engine types. The Mirage F3 greatly benefits from this, screwing both F1-Atar and Mirage 2000 in passing. Belgium takes a handful of F3s in 1973, followed by South Africa.
So the twin-Spey Mirage F3 for France, Belgium and South Africa instead of the Mirage F1 and Mirage F3s with 2 M53s for France instead of the Mirage 2000. Have I interpreted that correctly?

Will Dassault still develop the Mirage F1? That is to sell to air forces that couldn't afford the F3? Except that it will have a single Spey engine instead of the Atar 9K-50.

Can the Mirage III/5/50 airframe take a Spey? If will the aircraft that had the Atar 9K-50 in the "real world" have Spey engines in this timeline?

Just the Mirage F3, first with 1*Spey and later with 1*M53.

OTL F1 was a 0.8 scale F3 shrunk from TF30 to Atar 9k50.

No need for the F1-Atar, F1-M53 nor 2000 if the F3 with a turbofan is doing the job right from 1972.
 

Archibald

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Step 1 - DH.121 is not shrunk into the Trident, and give the Boeing 727 a run for its money
In that case the Nimrod's a modified "Big Trident" with Medway engines instead of a modified Comet with Spey engines.

The "Little Trident" was in production until 1978 and the "Big Trident" will be in production until 1984 if it gives the Boeing 727 "a run for its money". That will make it easier to sell the Nimrod on the export market.

Excellent ! How about the AEW mk.3 ?
 

Archibald

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Another cherry on that glorious cake: how about an earlier (1969 rather than 1989) A-7F Strikefighter - with a reheated TF41, obviously ?
Could replace USAF F-105s slaughtered in Vietnam, at lower cost than Phantoms... The USN would love it too, and there would die the Hornet in the craddle - with its range issue... and it would impact both A-10 and USMC Harriers.
 

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Step 1 - DH.121 is not shrunk into the Trident, and give the Boeing 727 a run for its money
In that case the Nimrod's a modified "Big Trident" with Medway engines instead of a modified Comet with Spey engines.

The "Little Trident" was in production until 1978 and the "Big Trident" will be in production until 1984 if it gives the Boeing 727 "a run for its money". That will make it easier to sell the Nimrod on the export market.
Excellent ! How about the AEW mk.3 ?
It would be an even bigger disaster than the real one. The airframe isn't big enough and the engines are too close to the rear radome.
 

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Step 8 - Meanwhile, in France... SNECMA is doing a good job with Medway, then Spey. By 1962 the subscale engine is licenced for the Mirage III-V; F2; F3; G. Eventually the French derive the M53 out of the Spey for larger twin-engine types. The Mirage F3 greatly benefits from this, screwing both F1-Atar and Mirage 2000 in passing. Belgium takes a handful of F3s in 1973, followed by South Africa.
So the twin-Spey Mirage F3 for France, Belgium and South Africa instead of the Mirage F1 and Mirage F3s with 2 M53s for France instead of the Mirage 2000. Have I interpreted that correctly?

Will Dassault still develop the Mirage F1? That is to sell to air forces that couldn't afford the F3? Except that it will have a single Spey engine instead of the Atar 9K-50.

Can the Mirage III/5/50 airframe take a Spey? If will the aircraft that had the Atar 9K-50 in the "real world" have Spey engines in this timeline?
Just the Mirage F3, first with 1*Spey and later with 1*M53.

OTL F1 was a 0.8 scale F3 shrunk from TF30 to Atar 9k50.

No need for the F1-Atar, F1-M53 nor 2000 if the F3 with a turbofan is doing the job right from 1972.
So all the countries that bought F1 and 2000 in the "real world" buy F3s and in the same quantities. Is that correct? My previous interpretation was that it was only bought by France, Belgium and South Africa.

Would it beat the F-16 in the Deal of the Century?
 

Archibald

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Moar Mirage F3 ? and yes, 700 +600 airframes, F1 and 2000 numbers added.
The F-16 would still carry The Netherlands Norway Denmark; but not Belgium. OTL the Leburton gvt nearly bought F1M53 in the fall of 1973.
So 348 - 160 = 188 F-16s for the Deal of the Century.
 

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I'm not sure a Big Trident would necessarily sell 727 volumes of sales, but the salesbook might look healthier. Ironically a successful Trident might kill off the 1-11 entirely but we might get a 2-11 earlier perhaps.

A Medway-powered Big Trident MRA would seem the most likely winner for the OR that led to Nimrod in this AU.

Archibald raises an interesting Chinese connection other than a military Medway/Spey into fighters - the Xian Y-10 used a DH.121 derived wing on a 707-esque fuselage, now imagine a 707-Trident mashup with Medways and they might actually have an airliner that would be possible to build and operate semi-reliably (allowing for other quality issues).
 

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Step 9 - In passing, the Medway-Spey Anglo-French connection screws the Jaguar out of history; it goes no farther than the AFVG, leading to a Hawk - Alphajet split on trainers.
What do they buy instead of the Jaguar?
There were Spey powered trainer/light Attack I think from the Folland stable.
 

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Y-10: Trident 1E AP-ATK reached PRC 7/70; 2E 240, 11/72; 707-320B 2402 8/73 and instantly vanished into SAIC until reaching CAAC 7/74.
www.airlinereporter.com/2013/12/classic-airliner-the-shanghai-y-10-chinas-first-commercial-airliner/ suggests Y-10 was inspired by
Tu-156, but www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/tu-156-awacs.1322/#post-10828 suggests that, a mere scheme, was throttled 8/69.

What I can offer here is that Shanghai Engine factory tried to reverse 707-320B's JT3D-7, and Shanghai Equipment Factory failed to reverse its Constant Speed Drive: I was with its Sundstrand designer trying to do a collaboration with them, 1986: they laid out their drawings and said: "but it doesn't work". He looked and said: "I can see where you went wrong". "Oh goody" they said and sharpened their pencils. "That will be $3Mn." he said, so they left the room. Y-10 failed at market for the same reason as SAIC's MD83: PRC carriers wanted their Boeings and (Douglases) to come from the West Coast of US, not East Coast of China.

Xian Red Flag took over Shenyang WP-5 (aka reversed Nene) 1967 and built it as WP-5A. They made a licence 13/12/75 for Spey 202 as WS-9, to the great joy of Taiwan now coping with Xian H-7, but people at the time thought that to be a good idea.

It is now Received Wisdom that history would have been muchly changed if BEAC had been told they did not understand the airline business, so kindly stay with a DH121 aimed at busy, competitive markets (no cartel revenue pools). But that would have required RR and (Airco, a loose, risk-averse assembly) to put up their own money - a notion alien to UK Aero. RB141 Medway was Design baseline for (to be) 727, as Allison AR 963G/L. Lost 12/60: If...
BEAC's 9/59 cash deposit had been on DH121 with Medway, not Spey,then everything explored in this thread could have followed. But...

Ministers owned BEAC. Ministers had set up the Protection of Regulated (=no) airline competition. Ministers had more Aero than could possibly be usefully employed, so sought coalescence, using TSR.2 as the means. Bristol+ASM was a dream team, stong enough to compete, both with RR and the world. In 1959 Olympus 301 worked, Avon 201 did not. So, buy a simple Olympus derivation for TSR.2, not a blank sheet. Simples.
If they had put Medway in TSR.2...no BSEL, RR becoming a monopoly in 1960 instead of 1966.
 
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Archibald

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What is pretty cool is that we have two "projects cancelled" paths related to Medway
- OR.339
- AW.681
I would go for the later here - as TSR.2 passed its Olympus to Concorde and this was fine and unrelated to Medway / Spey.
 

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Medway fine for burst of supersonic speed.
Not so fine for long endurance flights at Mach 2.2.
This would be clear from POD, so Ministers would have to resolve this issue for supersonic transport.
Either revisit earlier RR, BS or AS turbojets or source from US.
BS had Olympus Anyway.
 

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Mind you, had Sandys had his way he would have had the Bristol 200 foisted on BEA but the government had no legal means to compel BEA to order what the MoS wanted so they stuck two fingers up at Sandys and went with the DH.121 and then butchered it. Would they have butchered Bristol 200 too? Maybe. But Sandys love for the Bristol 200 came from possible US connections (with Convair I think - though their commercial record wasn't exactly stellar).

Ah the Thames, Medway and Spey, plus some of the smaller RB.211 engines like the RB.207 we could muse for weeks on cool AUs . Some good engines but not enough airframes to go round sadly.

What about a Marine RB.211?
Yes!!
I keep trying to work one into my naval AU over at Shipbucket but never have yet, feels very much like a and/or situation in regards to Marine Spey. An RB.211 might have been a little too much for a frigate. Something that definitely needs tinkering with in a naval AU though.
 

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Duncan Sandys, how we love to hate you passionately. With Diefenbaker. And McNamara. I wonder if there is a picture of these three together - we aerospace nerds could use it as a target to play darts... or voodoo.
 

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Fascinating take on the 60s aerospace tangle.
My variant would be to make AFVG work. It answers all the requirements and removes the F4 from the RAF and RN.
It starts earlier than in our timeline when TSR2 gets canned in 1962 along with Blue Water and BAC are told to get a European partner quick as the UK budget is overstretched and we need to be in the EEC.
Dassault and BAC build the Mirage G as the AFVG for the French and UK airforces and navies.
The deal goes so well that the UK agrees to a joint trainer programme. BAC offers the P45 as a lead into the Mirage G.
France accepts this as long as the UK takes Alphajet to replace Jet Provost.
Civil co-operation between Breguet and Hawker Siddeley on the HS 134 to replace Trident and Caravelle leads to BEA and Air France buying the Mercury instead of Trident 3 and 727
 

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Does France have a candidate to join the trio in the dock?
 

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Hmmmm.....

TSR.2 dropped but Reheated Medway (partially funded) continues......In F111K.....shades of F4K?
Yet not since Medway is much more a direct replacement for TF30.....so more like Merlin in P51, or Sapphire as J65.
Essentially F-111K serves the same purpose as F4K, getting UK licences for certain avionics.
F-111K variant of F111B would deliver GIUK Gap defence in BARCAP well before Tornado and with AIM-54/AWG.9 system.......which could lead to SAM variant Sea Pheonix, a natural HAWK successor and for Thunderbird as well.
Though possibly to expidite a workable system sooner AIM-47 as per YF-12?

Mirage F2/F3 follows suit....leading to Mirage G.....jumped on by UK as AFVG solution to Tactical Strike and multirole carrier system.....a mini-F111B so to speak and a natural compliment to the TFX....as LTF Light Tactical Fighter?
Possibly a merger of VG ideas as Type 585 parallels Type 584 to NMBR.3
Dassault sees the merit in VG without V/STOL lift jets during NMBR.3 as something to add to Mirage F2/F3 concept.
Arguably then VG Type 585/Mirage G concieved for AFVG before 1964. MN and RN synergy here and Mirage F2/F3 only serve as limited research tools for non-VG elements in the design.

Considering Olympus as used in Concord was substantially different to every other mark of Olympus Bristol produced in order to meet Supersonic Transport requirements. It's arguably the case Bristol will still win, unless RR have a 'Thames' up their sleeve....?
Without Spey funded as it's going to Medway, a possible resurrection of RB.128 would compete with Olympus.

However.....interim is NMBR.3 and BS.100....a sop to Bristol is either funding advanced Olympus or continuation of BS.100?
But is BS.100 funded enough by 1962? Probably not.
And wasn't it in '62 that NMBR.3 dies?

Hmmmm.....marine GT Olympus or Medway?
 

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I'm not sure a Big Trident would necessarily sell 727 volumes of sales, but the salesbook might look healthier.
I agree with the first part of the sentence. However, the "Big Trident's" order book would, rather than might, look healthier than the "Small Trident's" order book. Doubling or trebling the number of Tridents sold would be a considerable improvement on the 117 built in the "real world".
Ironically a successful Trident might kill off the 1-11 entirely...
I don't see why because the aircraft weren't competing for the same segment of the market. They were complimentary. Trident was competing against the Boeing 727 while the BAC-111 was competing against the Boeing 737 and Douglas DC-9.

For example, I believe that BEA wanted to buy a fleet of Boing 727s and 737s in the late 1960s. However, HM Treasury wouldn't give the Firm the Dollars it needed to buy them. Instead BEA was forced to buy 26 Trident 3s (plus options for 10 that weren't taken up) and 18 BAC-111-500 (plus options for 6 that weren't taken up) and compensated for being forced to buy British aircraft that weren't as competitive as their American equivalents. That is Trident instead of Boeing 727 and BAC-111 instead of Boeing 737.
...but we might get a 2-11 earlier perhaps.
I think that an earlier BAC-211 and for that matter the HS.132 or HS.134 entering production is unlikely.

I think Hawker Siddely (and from 1977 British Aerospace) would copy what Boeing did. That is the American firm improved the Boeing 727 for as long as possible before switching to the Boeing 757 in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Therefore, I think that HS/BAe would improve the "Big Trident" until about 1980 too.

The aircraft that replaced the "Big Trident" would be an equivalent to the real world's Trident 4 and 5 that were proposed in the middle 1970s. However, as I understand it (and I'm not sure that I have) it was decided to abandon the Trident 4 and 5 in favour of the Airbus A310. If I am correct I think that HS/BAe will still go for A310 but because the "Big Trident" sold in greater numbers than the "Small Trident" it will have the money to invest in a greater "work share".

Meanwhile, I think that a Medway-powered BAC-111 would sell better and for longer against the Boeing 737 and Douglas DC-9 than the "real world's" Spey-powered version. The BAC Board would probably put the extra profits into improving the BAC-111 to keep it competitive against its American rivals rather than the BAC-211 because that aircraft is even less likely to succeed in a market that includes the third-generation "Big Trident" as well as the Boeing 727-200 Advanced.

The 1980s could be interesting. Will BAe put its money into further developments of the BAC-111 which would mirror what Boeing did with the 737 and McDonnell Douglas did with the DC-9/MD-80 or would it do what it did in the "real world"? That is the Airbus A320. Except that it can afford to invest in a larger "work share" due to the Medway-powered BAC-111 selling better than the Spey-powered version.
 
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Duncan Sandys, how we love to hate you passionately. With Diefenbaker. And McNamara. I wonder if there is a picture of these three together - we aerospace nerds could use it as a target to play darts... or voodoo.
I suspect that the only Diefenbaker that most British people have heard of (and that includes myself) is the dog/wolf hybrid that was in the late 1990s TV series Due South.

What did the Canadian Prime Minister of the same name do to deserve inclusion in the same paragraph as Duncan Sandys and Robert McNamara?
 

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Step 9 - In passing, the Medway-Spey Anglo-French connection screws the Jaguar out of history; it goes no farther than the AFVG, leading to a Hawk - Alphajet split on trainers.
What do they buy instead of the Jaguar?
There were Spey powered trainer/light Attack I think from the Folland stable.
Are you referring to the Gnat Mk 5 and its VG variants? As far as I know it was to be powered by a pair of RB.153 engines, but I'm prepared to be proved wrong.

I think the most likely substitute is the BAC (Warton) P.45 because BAC was the British half of SEPECAT. That aircraft was to be powered by a pair of RB.172s or a single Spey. However, in this version of history it could have had a single Medway engine if more power was required.
 

NOMISYRRUC

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CF-105 Arrow... February 20 1959.
The Arrow was wholly unaffordable Batman!

I think integration was the worst thing to happen to Canada's armed forces since 1945 and therefore you should have written.
Duncan Sandys, how we love to hate you passionately. With (Diefenbaker) Hellyer. And McNamara. I wonder if there is a picture of these three together - we aerospace nerds could use it as a target to play darts... or voodoo.
 

Archibald

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I once red Hellyer reasoning for buying CF-5s and was left scratching my head in disbelief.
 
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