Airlines Facing Coronavirus Crisis of their own

Status
Not open for further replies.
DWG

DWG

ACCESS: Top Secret
Senior Member
Joined
11 February 2007
Messages
4,134
Reaction score
8,878
https://www.flightglobal.com/strate...urvival-as-coronavirus-spreads/137229.article
"Events are now significant enough to suggest that the industry that will emerge from this crisis will be smaller than, and structurally different to, the one that entered it."

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...stry-faces-crisis-worse-than-9-11-coronavirus
"BA’s chief executive, Alex Cruz, said in a message to 45,000 employees entitled “The Survival of British Airways” that the airline would be “parking aircraft in a way we never have before” "

"Even before the Trump ban, the International Air Transport Association had warned that passenger airlines could lose up to $113bn (£87bn) in revenues this year. "

"Norwegian is in talks with its government for urgent aid to ensure its survival. The Oslo government slashed air taxes on Friday but the airline said it was not enough. "

https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta...0-jets-amid-unprecedented-coronavirus-impact/
"The magnitude of Delta’s capacity cut is equivalent to removing an airline about the size of Air Canada from the skies "

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...surers-stopping-policy-sales-over-coronaviruswhich isn't going to help things.

It's noticeable this is affecting both legacy and low cost carriers. It's more a question of liquidity, financial commitments and cash reserves, than operating model, which could put the expanding airlines - such as Norwegian - at greater risk than the contracting ones.
 
Multiple nations are essentially shutting down international air travel: Norway, Poland, Czech Republic, Kuwait, Latvia, Cyprus, that I've definitely heard of, there are probably others. And the US will add the UK and Ireland to its ban on entry from Monday (I can only presume the reason they weren't there originally is no one had looked at a map).

Sky News tweeted tonight that Virgin bosses are reportedly writing to to the UK government saying the airlines need £7.5Bn of state aid.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/world/jet2-flights-canceled-coronavirus-trnd/index.htmlJet2 ordered its jets en-route to Spain this morning to turn around and return to the UK. (Husband of a family friend may be stuck in Tenerife because of this one).

The FT says that the French government is considering giving Air France-KLM a loan to keep on flying, but it's behind a paywall, so no details.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlin...-to-wear-masks-on-busy-flights/137271.articleApparently if you turn up without a mask you may be denied boarding.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/n...ve-flight-change-fees-until-the-end-of-march/And you know things are bad when even Ryanair is waiving fees for changing booked flights.

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/boeing-to-draw-down-loan-of-13-point-8-billion-dollarsTLDR: Boeing is drawing the full $13.8Bn value of an existing line of credit it had previously only drawn $7.5Bn of as a cover vs market turmoil.
 
Business & Money section, The Sunday Times (Irish edition), March 15th 2020:

Aircraft lessors face Covid-19 crash

Gavin Daly

The global aircraft leasing sector, which is largely based in Ireland, has "heightened vulnerability"
to the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, the credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has warned.

Fitch said it was actively assessing its ratings on banks, non-bank financial institutions, insurance
companies and funds in light of the "rapidly evolving" outbreak. Its preliminary analysis has identified
aircraft lessors as being vulnerable, along side Italian banks, Canadian banks, life and health insurers,
and funds focused on the energy sector. The ratings agency said it was examining credit ratings based
on factors including the direct impact of Covid-19 on business operations, pressure from lower business
volumes, vulnerability to lower oil prices and liquidity pressure. Businesses that are sensitive to the virus
outbreak and related financial market disruption will likely see their credit ratings revised by Fitch.

Almost two-thirds of the world's aircrafts are managed from Ireland by companies including AerCap,
Avolon, and SMBC Aviation capital. Aircraft Leasing Ireland, a lobby group that represents 35
companies, said the sector supported 5,000 direct jobs and contributed €550m a year to the Irish economy.
Fitch said the outbreak had human and financial implications that represented a "major shock" to its
assumptions.

"The nature of the coronavirus outbreak is unprecedented and clearly beyond any traditional or even
stressed business cycle", it said. "The extraordinary nature of the outbreak, the magnitude of the responses
and the speed at which the events are unfolding make it likely that we will see risks that have never before
been observed."
 
  • Like
Reactions: DWG
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-does-not-rule-out-full-grounding-coronavirusRyanair grounding 80% of their fleet.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/virg...amid-coronavirus-crisis-12405290/?ito=twitterVirgin grounding up to 85% by mid April.

https://www.irishpost.com/news/watc...land-basically-uk-meeting-leo-varadkar-181570And it appears the reason Trump excluded Ireland from the EU travel ban is he thinks it's part of the UK. And he said as much in front of the Acting Taoiseach. *Headdesk*
 
With a mortality rate of anywhere from 1% to something like 7%, skewed heavily towards the older demographic, and with perhaps 70% of the population due to catch the disease... one wonders what will happen to the Secret Projects forum itself when the dust settles. There will probably be notably fewer of us.
 
DWG said:
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-does-not-rule-out-full-grounding-coronavirusRyanair grounding 80% of their fleet.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/virg...amid-coronavirus-crisis-12405290/?ito=twitterVirgin grounding up to 85% by mid April.

https://www.irishpost.com/news/watc...land-basically-uk-meeting-leo-varadkar-181570And it appears the reason Trump excluded Ireland from the EU travel ban is he thinks it's part of the UK. And he said as much in front of the Acting Taoiseach. *Headdesk*
Click to expand...

I work as a logistic clerk (and many, many other tasks, actually, because the place is a mad house) for a MRO, subcontractor to a low-cost airline... 90% of its market is Italy Spain and France, go figure - three countries most affected by the shitstorm so far.
Well, unlike Ryanair and Virgin mentionned here, so far NOTHING seems to have happened. We have no information, either about anybody taking care of us, or even the company facing any difficulties.
This is completely insane, surreal. Goddam it, this morning the weekend workload we got from the mechanics was "business as usual". Actually more spare parts than usual; go figure. Oh, and that company headquarters are in Barcelona - right in the eye of the storm, for frack sake. Yet we got more or less the same amount of e-mail, boss shouting at everybody included, as usual.
 
Last edited:
The impacts will affect the airlines for a long time to come, the outbreak will last well into 2021. Businesses will have to re-open and workers go back to work, so business travel might pick up again but many families will have cancelled Easter holiday plans and might be thinking twice about that summer getaway too.
This could potentially be far more serious for the airlines and manufacturers than the post 9/11 slump and the 2008 slump.
 
Archibald said:
DWG said:
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-does-not-rule-out-full-grounding-coronavirusRyanair grounding 80% of their fleet.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/16/virg...amid-coronavirus-crisis-12405290/?ito=twitterVirgin grounding up to 85% by mid April.

https://www.irishpost.com/news/watc...land-basically-uk-meeting-leo-varadkar-181570And it appears the reason Trump excluded Ireland from the EU travel ban is he thinks it's part of the UK. And he said as much in front of the Acting Taoiseach. *Headdesk*
Click to expand...

I work as a logistic clerk (and many, many other tasks, actually, because the place is a mad house) for a MRO, subcontractor to a low-cost airline... 90% of its market is Italy Spain and France, go figure - three countries most affected by the shitstorm so far.
Well, unlike Ryanair and Virgin mentionned here, so far NOTHING seems to have happened. We have no information, either about anybody taking care of us, or even the company facing any difficulties.
This is completely insane, surreal. Goddam it, this morning the weekend workload we got from the mechanics was "business as usual". Actually more spare parts than usual; go figure. Oh, and that company headquarters are in Barcelona - right in the eye of the storm, for frack sake. Yet we got more or less the same amount of e-mail, boss shouting at everybody included, as usual.
Click to expand...

And I will probably be lose my job in that shitstorm. My current contract ends on May 31 and I hoped to get a permanent job. Dang.

Situation at Strasbourg airport is critical. The mechanics there send an e-mail saying that they kind of ran away for their lives - with Christophe Castaner directives about lockdown, they could no longer work without being fined by the police.


I had to explain that, from Bordeaux, to this people in Spain. Go figure. They didn't realized !

The mechanics at my station retrieved a tool from Verona, Italy... except that tools are metallic stuff, and COVID survives on this. They put the tool in quarantine. And I turned green when I saw their e-mail: I'm the one that handled that tool travel from Verona to Bordeaux. I immediately decided that enough was enough. I took my laptop and rushed toward home. I will work from home, and screw them if they fire me. I have a meeting with my doctor that afternoon, and I will take a sick leave to cover my ass.
And from the e-mails I can see, they seem not realize. Business as usual is the word. UNBELIEVABLE.
 
Well folks, the farther it goes, the farther it looks like Dawn of the planet of the apes haunting first minutes. Maybe not for mankind, but certainly for the airline industry.

Apes.png

We got an e-mail from the airline founders. Fleet grounded tomorrow: with Italy, Spain and France locked, the aircraft have nowhere to fly nor anybody to carry and all too soon, no mechanics to maintain them.

The company however has aparently some cash reserves for some months, they said 3-4 months will be rough but doable. Beyond that...

Just got a message from my own company, the MRO subcontractor to the airline. More exactly from my station manager. The boss will speak today, aparently. Fingers crossed.

Sweet Jesus. :eek::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
If the Kung Flu goes full steam and wipes out vast numbers of people in the western world, I have to wonder if the era of long distance fast jetliner travel might actually be at an end. Had international travel been difficult while international communications been easy, then this likely would have stayed a local problem. So perhaps when it's all said and done, the era of jetliners, at least internationally, might be at an end.

Would that, at long last, finally open the door for airships to return? Sloooooooow transport might become the only acceptable means of intercontinental flight.
 
I don't think so, the Spanish Flu managed quite nicely when the fastest mode of transport was the railway and intercontinental travel relied on almost exclusively on ships.

Its more the case of rapid intercontinental transportation has now become so much the norm that stopping that network seems almost unthinkable that by the time that drastic step is taken its too late.
 
Farnborough Airshow just announced it's cancelled.

Not really a surprise, but still....
 
In other news, via SNAFU: Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning (ft.com, registration may be required)
Taiwan has accused the World Health Organization of failing to communicate an early warning about transmission of the coronavirus between humans, slowing the global response to the pandemic.

Health officials in Taipei said they alerted the WHO at the end of December about the risk of human-to-human transmission of the new virus but said its concerns were not passed on to other countries.

Taiwan is excluded from the WHO because China, which claims it as part of its territory, demands that third countries and international bodies do not treat it in any way that resembles how independent states are treated.

The WHO’s relationship with China has been criticised in the past, with some accusing the organisation of overly praising Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak despite allegations local officials had initially covered it up.

Taiwan said its doctors had heard from mainland colleagues that medical staff were getting ill — a sign of human-to-human transmission. Taipei officials said they reported this to both International Health Regulations (IHR), a WHO framework for exchange of epidemic prevention and response data between 196 countries, and Chinese health authorities on December 31.

Taiwanese government officials told the Financial Times the warning was not shared with other countries.

“While the IHR’s internal website provides a platform for all countries to share information on the epidemic and their response, none of the information shared by our country’s [Centers for Disease Control] is being put up there,” said Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan’s vice-president.

[snip]
Click to expand...

As if the WHO's reputation wasn't already in tatters. This is likely to put the cat among the pigeons and no mistake.
 
Hood said:
Its more the case of rapid intercontinental transportation has now become so much the norm that stopping that network seems almost unthinkable...
Click to expand...

And yet, here we are. After 911, air travel became enough of a PITA that a lot of people, including myself, have basically stopped flying. Kung Flu could end up being many times worse, and with the knowledge that it could happen again at any time I would not discount the possibility that a lot of people will demand that rapid intercontinental travel be curtailed in some way.
 
On the silver linings side...

We are about to experience the result of the largest climate experiment ever done: The worldwide reduction of industrial and transportation activity.

I've seen reports that now is the hottest spring ever recorded. The shutdown of industrial and transportation activity may be a reset that allows the climate to stop setting new high temperature records. The climate will be cooler and cleaner as a result of the reduction of activity. It will be interesting to see how deep the effect goes and how long it lasts after things get back to the usual.

Astronomers should take this opportunity and run with it. The atmosphere will never be clearer in their lifetimes with the reduction in man made pollution. The disruption may even slow down the deployment of LEO satellites. Schedule scope time while the air is clear!
 
There is a plausible hypothesis that the Coronavirus use gas emission as a vector for transmission. Difficult to assert with a single line post but most hit places are city center with a lot of particles emissions. It won't be supernatural for a virus to grow on Nox reactions at altitude and then travel on particles.

If someone would have made a link, he would have lock-down people to prevent them to drive their dusty diesel and prevent population with weak respiratory systems to inhale potentially charged volume of air.


Tiny but fits.
 
Seems pretty far fetched when the same distribution can be explained by the increased population density in cities and the increased rate of interactions between people that implies.
 
DWG said:
TomcatViP said:
It won't be supernatural for a virus to grow on Nox reactions at altitude
Click to expand...

Given viral reproduction can only occur inside a cell, yes it would.
Click to expand...

What he said. That's a defining featur eof a virus: It can't do diddly on its own, including and especially reproducing.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Back
Top Bottom