Airlines Facing Coronavirus Crisis of their own

[DWG]

Airlines in fight for survival as coronavirus spreads

Events are now significant enough to suggest that the industry that will emerge from this crisis will be smaller than, and structurally different to, the one that entered it.

www.flightglobal.com

"Events are now significant enough to suggest that the industry that will emerge from this crisis will be smaller than, and structurally different to, the one that entered it."

BA says jobs will go as airline industry faces crisis 'worse than 9/11'

Coronavirus memo says British Airways will be ‘parking aircraft in a way we never have before’

www.theguardian.com

"BA’s chief executive, Alex Cruz, said in a message to 45,000 employees entitled “The Survival of British Airways” that the airline would be “parking aircraft in a way we never have before” "

"Even before the Trump ban, the International Air Transport Association had warned that passenger airlines could lose up to $113bn (£87bn) in revenues this year. "

"Norwegian is in talks with its government for urgent aid to ensure its survival. The Oslo government slashed air taxes on Friday but the airline said it was not enough. "

Delta to park 300 jets amid 'unprecedented' coronavirus impact - The Points Guy

Delta Air Lines is taking drastic steps in self-preservation as it faces what CEO Ed Bastian calls an "unprecedented" impact from the novel coronavirus outbreak.

thepointsguy.com

"The magnitude of Delta’s capacity cut is equivalent to removing an airline about the size of Air Canada from the skies "

UK travel insurers stopping policy sales over coronavirus

Which? calls for urgent action by government, insurance firms and travel sector

www.theguardian.com

which isn't going to help things.

It's noticeable this is affecting both legacy and low cost carriers. It's more a question of liquidity, financial commitments and cash reserves, than operating model, which could put the expanding airlines - such as Norwegian - at greater risk than the contracting ones.

 

[Grey Havoc]

It's not just aviation that's suffering:

Coronavirus outbreak shakes the space industry: Here are the biggest effects so far

The list is getting longer by the day.

www.space.com

 

[DWG]

Newsroom

newsroom.lufthansagroup.com

Lufthansa proposes suspending its share dividend, and forecasts potential 70% reduction in flights.

 

[DWG]

Multiple nations are essentially shutting down international air travel: Norway, Poland, Czech Republic, Kuwait, Latvia, Cyprus, that I've definitely heard of, there are probably others. And the US will add the UK and Ireland to its ban on entry from Monday (I can only presume the reason they weren't there originally is no one had looked at a map).

Sky News tweeted tonight that Virgin bosses are reportedly writing to to the UK government saying the airlines need £7.5Bn of state aid.

Planes turn around mid-air because of flight restrictions over coronavirus | CNN

British travel company Jet2 has canceled all flights to mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands.

edition.cnn.com

Jet2 ordered its jets en-route to Spain this morning to turn around and return to the UK. (Husband of a family friend may be stuck in Tenerife because of this one).

The FT says that the French government is considering giving Air France-KLM a loan to keep on flying, but it's behind a paywall, so no details.

Alitalia orders passengers to wear masks on busy flights

Alitalia is to enforce the wearing of protective masks on board flights if load factors mean passengers cannot be adequately spaced. The Italian flag-carrier has imposed the measure with immediate effect, part of the effort to combat the coronavirus outbreak which has affected Italy particularly...

www.flightglobal.com

Apparently if you turn up without a mask you may be denied boarding.

Ryanair waives flight change fees as airlines and hotels offer flexibility over bookings hit by coronavirus

Budget airline Ryanair has said it will waive the flight change fee for customers who wish to change their travel plans due to the current coronavirus pandemic from today until 31 March

www.moneysavingexpert.com

And you know things are bad when even Ryanair is waiving fees for changing booked flights.

Boeing to Draw Down $13.825 Billion Loan

Boeing BA plans to draw down the full amount of a $13.825 billion loan as early as Friday, as the aerospace giant contends with the impact of the coronavirus on worldwide travel, a media report says.

www.thestreet.com

TLDR: Boeing is drawing the full $13.8Bn value of an existing line of credit it had previously only drawn $7.5Bn of as a cover vs market turmoil.

 

[Grey Havoc]

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51895276

Coronavirus: US airports in disarray over screening

Travellers returning from Europe queue for hours as new health screening measures are introduced.

www.bbc.com

 

[TomcatViP]

EASA to recommend spacing passengers to cut contagion risk

European regulators are preparing to advise airlines to space passengers throughout the cabin on flights which are not full, having formally directed carriers to ensure aircraft are fully disinfected after each flight from high-risk coronavirus areas. Operators should also equip aircraft with at...

www.flightglobal.com

 

[Grey Havoc]

Business & Money section, The Sunday Times (Irish edition), March 15th 2020:

Aircraft lessors face Covid-19 crash

Gavin Daly

The global aircraft leasing sector, which is largely based in Ireland, has "heightened vulnerability"
to the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, the credit ratings agency Fitch Ratings has warned.

Fitch said it was actively assessing its ratings on banks, non-bank financial institutions, insurance
companies and funds in light of the "rapidly evolving" outbreak. Its preliminary analysis has identified
aircraft lessors as being vulnerable, along side Italian banks, Canadian banks, life and health insurers,
and funds focused on the energy sector. The ratings agency said it was examining credit ratings based
on factors including the direct impact of Covid-19 on business operations, pressure from lower business
volumes, vulnerability to lower oil prices and liquidity pressure. Businesses that are sensitive to the virus
outbreak and related financial market disruption will likely see their credit ratings revised by Fitch.

Almost two-thirds of the world's aircrafts are managed from Ireland by companies including AerCap,
Avolon, and SMBC Aviation capital. Aircraft Leasing Ireland, a lobby group that represents 35
companies, said the sector supported 5,000 direct jobs and contributed €550m a year to the Irish economy.
Fitch said the outbreak had human and financial implications that represented a "major shock" to its
assumptions.

"The nature of the coronavirus outbreak is unprecedented and clearly beyond any traditional or even
stressed business cycle", it said. "The extraordinary nature of the outbreak, the magnitude of the responses
and the speed at which the events are unfolding make it likely that we will see risks that have never before
been observed."

 

[DWG]

Airlines make dramatic cuts to services and call for state bailouts

Aviation consultancy warns that international industry could collapse within months

www.theguardian.com

Ryanair grounding 80% of their fleet.

Virgin Atlantic tells staff to take eight weeks unpaid leave over coronavirus

The company plans to ground 75% of its fleet by the end of March amid global travel restrictions and falling demand.

metro.co.uk

Virgin grounding up to 85% by mid April.

WATCH: Donald Trump calls Ireland 'basically the UK' in meeting with Leo Varadkar | The Irish Post

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump appeared to confuse Ireland with the UK yesterday during a meeting with...

www.irishpost.com

And it appears the reason Trump excluded Ireland from the EU travel ban is he thinks it's part of the UK. And he said as much in front of the Acting Taoiseach. *Headdesk*

 

[DWG]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1239568170152857607

EU proposing a 30 day ban on non-essential cross-border travel

 

[Orionblamblam]

With a mortality rate of anywhere from 1% to something like 7%, skewed heavily towards the older demographic, and with perhaps 70% of the population due to catch the disease... one wonders what will happen to the Secret Projects forum itself when the dust settles. There will probably be notably fewer of us.

 

[Archibald]

Airlines make dramatic cuts to services and call for state bailouts

Aviation consultancy warns that international industry could collapse within months

www.theguardian.com

Ryanair grounding 80% of their fleet.

Virgin Atlantic tells staff to take eight weeks unpaid leave over coronavirus

The company plans to ground 75% of its fleet by the end of March amid global travel restrictions and falling demand.

metro.co.uk

Virgin grounding up to 85% by mid April.

WATCH: Donald Trump calls Ireland 'basically the UK' in meeting with Leo Varadkar | The Irish Post

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump appeared to confuse Ireland with the UK yesterday during a meeting with...

www.irishpost.com

And it appears the reason Trump excluded Ireland from the EU travel ban is he thinks it's part of the UK. And he said as much in front of the Acting Taoiseach. *Headdesk*

I work as a logistic clerk (and many, many other tasks, actually, because the place is a mad house) for a MRO, subcontractor to a low-cost airline... 90% of its market is Italy Spain and France, go figure - three countries most affected by the shitstorm so far.
Well, unlike Ryanair and Virgin mentionned here, so far NOTHING seems to have happened. We have no information, either about anybody taking care of us, or even the company facing any difficulties.
This is completely insane, surreal. Goddam it, this morning the weekend workload we got from the mechanics was "business as usual". Actually more spare parts than usual; go figure. Oh, and that company headquarters are in Barcelona - right in the eye of the storm, for frack sake. Yet we got more or less the same amount of e-mail, boss shouting at everybody included, as usual.

 

[Hood]

The impacts will affect the airlines for a long time to come, the outbreak will last well into 2021. Businesses will have to re-open and workers go back to work, so business travel might pick up again but many families will have cancelled Easter holiday plans and might be thinking twice about that summer getaway too.
This could potentially be far more serious for the airlines and manufacturers than the post 9/11 slump and the 2008 slump.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Airbus to pause production in France, Spain

Airbus SE said Tuesday that it is temporarily suspending production and assembly activities at its French and Spanish sites for the next four days. The...

www.marketwatch.com

Airbus to suspend production in France and Spain

Airbus is stopping production and assembly activities at its plants in France and Spain for the next four days as governments there implement new measures to restrict movements and fight the coronavirus outbreak, the planemaker said on Tuesday.

www.nasdaq.com

 

[Grey Havoc]

Planemakers grapple with delivery delays as airline crisis grows

Boeing and Airbus face a drop in planned deliveries as airlines struggle to survive the coronavirus crisis, sending shares in planemakers plunging on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Airbus suspends production in France and Spain, shares slide

Airbus <AIR.PA> announced plans to halt operations at its plants in France and Spain for four days as the coronavirus crisis spread from battered airlines to the manufacturing sector.

www.reuters.com

 

[Grey Havoc]

Boeing in talks for short-term U.S. government assistance

(The March 16 story clarifies that part of paragraph 14 came from source familiar, not company email)

www.reuters.com

'Single biggest shock': Aviation battles coronavirus cash crunch

Boeing and other U.S. aviation companies are seeking billions of dollars in aid as they battle to survive a plunge in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic, while Airbus is pausing production at two sites to bolster health and safety measures.

www.reuters.com

 

[Grey Havoc]

Make us ventilators to fight coronavirus, UK asks Ford and Rolls Royce

Britain has asked manufacturers including Ford <F.N>, Honda <7267.T> and Rolls Royce <RR.L> to help make health equipment including ventilators to cope with the coronavirus outbreak and will look at using hotels as hospitals.

www.reuters.com

 

[Grey Havoc]

Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific to sell six Boeing aircraft to BOC Aviation

Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd <0293.HK> on Monday said it would sell six Boeing <BA.N> 777-300ER aircraft and its associated equipment for $703.8 million to BOC Aviation Ltd <2588.HK>.

www.reuters.com

 

[Archibald]

Airlines make dramatic cuts to services and call for state bailouts

Aviation consultancy warns that international industry could collapse within months

www.theguardian.com

Ryanair grounding 80% of their fleet.

Virgin Atlantic tells staff to take eight weeks unpaid leave over coronavirus

The company plans to ground 75% of its fleet by the end of March amid global travel restrictions and falling demand.

metro.co.uk

Virgin grounding up to 85% by mid April.

WATCH: Donald Trump calls Ireland 'basically the UK' in meeting with Leo Varadkar | The Irish Post

US PRESIDENT Donald Trump appeared to confuse Ireland with the UK yesterday during a meeting with...

www.irishpost.com

And it appears the reason Trump excluded Ireland from the EU travel ban is he thinks it's part of the UK. And he said as much in front of the Acting Taoiseach. *Headdesk*

I work as a logistic clerk (and many, many other tasks, actually, because the place is a mad house) for a MRO, subcontractor to a low-cost airline... 90% of its market is Italy Spain and France, go figure - three countries most affected by the shitstorm so far.
Well, unlike Ryanair and Virgin mentionned here, so far NOTHING seems to have happened. We have no information, either about anybody taking care of us, or even the company facing any difficulties.
This is completely insane, surreal. Goddam it, this morning the weekend workload we got from the mechanics was "business as usual". Actually more spare parts than usual; go figure. Oh, and that company headquarters are in Barcelona - right in the eye of the storm, for frack sake. Yet we got more or less the same amount of e-mail, boss shouting at everybody included, as usual.

And I will probably be lose my job in that shitstorm. My current contract ends on May 31 and I hoped to get a permanent job. Dang.

Situation at Strasbourg airport is critical. The mechanics there send an e-mail saying that they kind of ran away for their lives - with Christophe Castaner directives about lockdown, they could no longer work without being fined by the police.


I had to explain that, from Bordeaux, to this people in Spain. Go figure. They didn't realized !

The mechanics at my station retrieved a tool from Verona, Italy... except that tools are metallic stuff, and COVID survives on this. They put the tool in quarantine. And I turned green when I saw their e-mail: I'm the one that handled that tool travel from Verona to Bordeaux. I immediately decided that enough was enough. I took my laptop and rushed toward home. I will work from home, and screw them if they fire me. I have a meeting with my doctor that afternoon, and I will take a sick leave to cover my ass.
And from the e-mails I can see, they seem not realize. Business as usual is the word. UNBELIEVABLE.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Exclusive: Airbus signals government help needed if crisis lasts months - sources

Europe's Airbus <AIR.PA> has signaled that some government support may be needed if the coronavirus crisis lasts for several months, three people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

 

[Grey Havoc]

Airbus suspends production in France and Spain, shares slide

Airbus <AIR.PA> announced plans to halt operations at its plants in France and Spain for four days as the coronavirus crisis spread from battered airlines to the manufacturing sector.

www.reuters.com

 

[Archibald]

Dang

 

[DWG]

Rishi Sunak promises special measures for coronavirus-hit airlines

Joint letter to PM says hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk because of Covid-19

www.theguardian.com

Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester say they need urgent government help.

COVID-19. By the end of May, most world airlines will be bankrupt

The global airline industry is facing a catastrophic crisis due to the impact of the coronavirus, and without coordinated government and industry action, most airlines will go bankrupt by the end of May 2020. The fear is that national self-interest will prevail in the reconstitution of the...

centreforaviation.com

Centre For Aviation suggests most airlines will fold.

 

[Archibald]

My ex colleague told me Sabena technics has shut down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabena_technics

This company is 20 times bigger than mine, yet mine is still open. Go figure. something is very wrong here.

 

[Archibald]

Well folks, the farther it goes, the farther it looks like Dawn of the planet of the apes haunting first minutes. Maybe not for mankind, but certainly for the airline industry.



We got an e-mail from the airline founders. Fleet grounded tomorrow: with Italy, Spain and France locked, the aircraft have nowhere to fly nor anybody to carry and all too soon, no mechanics to maintain them.

The company however has aparently some cash reserves for some months, they said 3-4 months will be rough but doable. Beyond that...

Just got a message from my own company, the MRO subcontractor to the airline. More exactly from my station manager. The boss will speak today, aparently. Fingers crossed.

Sweet Jesus.

 

[Grey Havoc]

Good luck!

 

[Grey Havoc]

How coronavirus could impact the defense supply chain

There are two key factors to watch as the coronavirus pandemic spreads.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Grey Havoc]

We asked defense companies how they’re impacted by the coronavirus. Here’s what they said.

Over the past few days, Defense News reached out to a number of key defense players whose production lines could be impacted by the virus. Here is a collection of their responses.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Orionblamblam]

If the Kung Flu goes full steam and wipes out vast numbers of people in the western world, I have to wonder if the era of long distance fast jetliner travel might actually be at an end. Had international travel been difficult while international communications been easy, then this likely would have stayed a local problem. So perhaps when it's all said and done, the era of jetliners, at least internationally, might be at an end.

Would that, at long last, finally open the door for airships to return? Sloooooooow transport might become the only acceptable means of intercontinental flight.

 

[Hood]

I don't think so, the Spanish Flu managed quite nicely when the fastest mode of transport was the railway and intercontinental travel relied on almost exclusively on ships.

Its more the case of rapid intercontinental transportation has now become so much the norm that stopping that network seems almost unthinkable that by the time that drastic step is taken its too late.

 

[DWG]

Farnborough Airshow just announced it's cancelled.

Not really a surprise, but still....

 

[DWG]

We asked defense companies how they’re impacted by the coronavirus. Here’s what they said.

Over the past few days, Defense News reached out to a number of key defense players whose production lines could be impacted by the virus. Here is a collection of their responses.

www.defensenews.com

Used to sit next to Rochester's business continuity guy. He was smart, but I doubt he ever expected this one.

 

[Grey Havoc]

In other news, via SNAFU: Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning (ft.com, registration may be required)

Taiwan has accused the World Health Organization of failing to communicate an early warning about transmission of the coronavirus between humans, slowing the global response to the pandemic.

Health officials in Taipei said they alerted the WHO at the end of December about the risk of human-to-human transmission of the new virus but said its concerns were not passed on to other countries.

Taiwan is excluded from the WHO because China, which claims it as part of its territory, demands that third countries and international bodies do not treat it in any way that resembles how independent states are treated.

The WHO’s relationship with China has been criticised in the past, with some accusing the organisation of overly praising Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak despite allegations local officials had initially covered it up.

Taiwan said its doctors had heard from mainland colleagues that medical staff were getting ill — a sign of human-to-human transmission. Taipei officials said they reported this to both International Health Regulations (IHR), a WHO framework for exchange of epidemic prevention and response data between 196 countries, and Chinese health authorities on December 31.

Taiwanese government officials told the Financial Times the warning was not shared with other countries.

“While the IHR’s internal website provides a platform for all countries to share information on the epidemic and their response, none of the information shared by our country’s [Centers for Disease Control] is being put up there,” said Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan’s vice-president.

[snip]

As if the WHO's reputation wasn't already in tatters. This is likely to put the cat among the pigeons and no mistake.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Its more the case of rapid intercontinental transportation has now become so much the norm that stopping that network seems almost unthinkable...

And yet, here we are. After 911, air travel became enough of a PITA that a lot of people, including myself, have basically stopped flying. Kung Flu could end up being many times worse, and with the knowledge that it could happen again at any time I would not discount the possibility that a lot of people will demand that rapid intercontinental travel be curtailed in some way.

 

[TomcatViP]

Time to invest in an oar factory!

 

[Richard N]

On the silver linings side...

We are about to experience the result of the largest climate experiment ever done: The worldwide reduction of industrial and transportation activity.

I've seen reports that now is the hottest spring ever recorded. The shutdown of industrial and transportation activity may be a reset that allows the climate to stop setting new high temperature records. The climate will be cooler and cleaner as a result of the reduction of activity. It will be interesting to see how deep the effect goes and how long it lasts after things get back to the usual.

Astronomers should take this opportunity and run with it. The atmosphere will never be clearer in their lifetimes with the reduction in man made pollution. The disruption may even slow down the deployment of LEO satellites. Schedule scope time while the air is clear!

 

[TomcatViP]

There is a plausible hypothesis that the Coronavirus use gas emission as a vector for transmission. Difficult to assert with a single line post but most hit places are city center with a lot of particles emissions. It won't be supernatural for a virus to grow on Nox reactions at altitude and then travel on particles.

If someone would have made a link, he would have lock-down people to prevent them to drive their dusty diesel and prevent population with weak respiratory systems to inhale potentially charged volume of air.


Tiny but fits.

 

[TomS]

Seems pretty far fetched when the same distribution can be explained by the increased population density in cities and the increased rate of interactions between people that implies.

 

[TomcatViP]

It is. But let's wait and see...

 

[DWG]

It won't be supernatural for a virus to grow on Nox reactions at altitude

Given viral reproduction can only occur inside a cell, yes it would.

 

[Orionblamblam]

It won't be supernatural for a virus to grow on Nox reactions at altitude

Given viral reproduction can only occur inside a cell, yes it would.

What he said. That's a defining featur eof a virus: It can't do diddly on its own, including and especially reproducing.