2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran and elsewhere in region - News and Discussion

[Ahriman]

Can you provide evidence for this claim?
And why would the IAEA cooperate with the US in establishing a portfolio of Iranian JCPOA violations?

CNN.com - Transcripts

Aired September 9, 2015 - 14:00 ET

TRUMP: I'll tell you that this deal, if I win, will be a totally different deal. This will be a totally different deal. Ripping up is always tough. Don't forget, we lost all of our so-called allies in the deal. They're all making a lot of money. We're not making anything. They're all selling missiles and getting involved in Iran, using the money that we gave to Iran. I will do something that will be very strong.

Note that Trump's administration was initially confirming that Iran was complying with the deal. Funnily enough, a week before the deal was broken by the USA, Bibi made a presentation about big, bad Iran not complying with that deal. I am starting to see a pattern here...

 

[TwoTribes]

Hamas invaded on Oct 7th and held land inside Israel, IIRC, for about 3 days.
Hezbollah invaded on Oct 8th. It did not manage to gain any territory. Its incompetence should not be confused with lack of intent.
Hamas's force of 3,000 Nukhba fighters was paralleled by Hezbollah's 5,000 Radwan fighters.

So are the west now following the October 7 calendar instead of the Gregorian calendar? Does everything originate from October 7 rather than the birth of Jesus? Why not mention that Israel had already militarily occupied Gaza before Hamas even existed? And for how many days did that occupation last?

On the 19th of October 2023 the Houthis joined.
Iraqi PMF by then also joined.
And Iran joined as well in April of 2024.

And you forgot to mention the new Syrian government. Otherwise, why would Israel bomb them and occupy their land?

 

[Big_Zukini]

In terms of the outcome, there is no difference between an infrared pod worth millions of dollars and the human eye. Whatever you’ve said does not reduce civilian casualties. Israel killed many civilians in the past, now, future.

There is a difference of course.
Strike procedures do in fact reduce civilian casualties. And no country in the world other than the USA has as robust strike procedures as Israel.

Killing civilians is not the sole purpose of Hamas either. Among the 1,400 deaths, nearly 400 were military or police personnel.

Both Israel and Hamas aim to achieve some goals of military purpose.
However there is the critical difference that Israel invests tremendous resources to reducing civilian casualties, often to its own detriment, while Hamas sees civilian casualties on Israel's side as an added bonus, and on the Palestinian side as a core part of their strategy.

Israel will bomb an entire hospital over a 'Hamas camera.' Not a fighter, not an RPG—just a camera

Perhaps, but it will remain speculative until it actually happens.

I can tell from my own personal experience in the army that some actions of high strategic importance were indefinitely deferred due to likelihood of civilian harm.
So while you say it is speculative, it starts off with near 0 chances.

Aired September 9, 2015 - 14:00 ET

The JCPOA violations were revealed in 2018, and preceded the US's own withdrawal from it which came over a year after entering office and thus at least 2 decrees to remain in the JCPOA.
Can you provide evidence that there was no relationship of causality between the intelligence reports of Iran's violations, and the withdrawal?

 

[Big_Zukini]

So are the west now following the October 7 calendar instead of the Gregorian calendar? Does everything originate from October 7 rather than the birth of Jesus? Why not mention that Israel had already militarily occupied Gaza before Hamas even existed? And for how many days did that occupation last?

Israel's occupation of Gaza ended in 2005 and was thus not relevant to the given timeline.

And you forgot to mention the new Syrian government. Otherwise, why would Israel bomb them and occupy their land?

I didn't.

 

[Archibald]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WJZcMyak0_w

Thread going off the rails, on a crazy train...

 

[Big_Zukini]

Iran now demands Lebanon be included in the ceasefire as well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041898059676672322

Strikes in Tyre, south Lebanon. Earlier morning strikes focused on Dahiyeh, Beirut.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041896039242682479

 

[TwoTribes]

There is a difference of course.
Strike procedures do in fact reduce civilian casualties. And no country in the world other than the USA has as robust strike procedures as Israel.

I see nothing but a bloodier war.

”Robust strike procedures“, of course it's "robust"—"tempered and honed" by all the schools and hospitals it has bombed over the past twenty-five years.

Both Israel and Hamas aim to achieve some goals of military purpose.
However there is the critical difference that Israel invests tremendous resources to reducing civilian casualties, often to its own detriment, while Hamas sees civilian casualties on Israel's side as an added bonus, and on the Palestinian side as a core part of their strategy.

Are you talking about dozens of heavy bombs striking two residential buildings? Are you talking about using up to 45% unguided bombs?

Perhaps, but it will remain speculative until it actually happens.

It happened. 22 kills.

Israel’s justification for Gaza hospital attack false, Reuters probe finds

Israel falsely claimed a Hamas camera was the target of a deadly strike that killed 22 people, including journalists.

www.aljazeera.com

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/26/middleeast/idf-nasser-hospital-gaza-war-protest-latam-intl

 

[Big_Zukini]

I see nothing but a bloodier war.

”Robust strike procedures“, of course it's "robust"—"tempered and honed" by all the schools and hospitals it has bombed over the past twenty-five years.

To an outsider, war will naturally appear chaotic and bloody. In a way it is. But there is also a lot of order within that fog.

Are you talking about dozens of heavy bombs striking two residential buildings? Are you talking about using up to 45% unguided bombs?

Among many other things.

It happened. 22 kills

That is not an example of what you described.
First, that is not "a whole hospital".
AFAIK it was a 120mm tank HE shell fired at the external staircase where the alleged cameraman was standing.
It could be lethal, but 22 fatalities from a single 120mm shell is far fetched. And of course, the cameraman was the target, not the hospital.

Second, just because a Hamas combatant is in or around a hospital, doesn't mean the combatant is protected. Nor does it mean the hospital loses its own protection.
But the camera coincides with the location from which Hamas showed combat footage, making it a legitimate military target.
And a 120mm shell does have a fairly limited lethal area, making it an adequate weapon of choice.

 

[TwoTribes]

Israel's occupation of Gaza ended in 2005 and was thus not relevant to the given timeline.

I didn't set any timeline.

I didn't.

Then why is Israel bombing them? They just overthrew Assad. They were not, are not, and in the foreseeable future will not be an ally of Iran. They haven't entered Israeli land. On the contrary, Israel is occupying their land. So why the airstrikes?

 

[Big_Zukini]

I didn't set any timeline.


Then why is Israel bombing them? They just overthrew Assad. They were not, are not, and in the foreseeable future will not be an ally of Iran. They haven't entered Israeli land. On the contrary, Israel is occupying their land. So why the airstrikes?

The Druze in Syria are politically important to Israel and to Israel's stability.
Israel set a condition for the STG (Syrian Transitional Government) to leave the Druze alone and not try to impose its will on them. Sharaa's government demanded, among other things, disarmament of the Druze. As it did with the Kurds.
South Syria was also typically populated with all sorts of terrorist groups that are antagonistic to everyone around them.
Israel further demanded of the STG to rein in its forces and not attack the Druze.
The STG failed to meet both demands.
Hence Israel struck.

There are, however, no strikes right now. And Israel refrains from targeting the STG in any way that would destabilize it, or on any matters unrelated to the Druze.

I did not mention Syria because the limited conflicts there are unrelated to the general Israel-AoR war that's been going on since 2023.

Further, occupation in Syria is a temporary matter. Israel and Syria are currently negotiating, and an integral part of it is a Syrian resolution of the south Syria security issues.
If Syria agrees and demonstrates capability, Israel will withdraw.
It is wrong to assume Israel sees occupations as the goal, rather than an undesirable means to an end.

 

[Big_Zukini]

More Beirut strikes

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041907134116381079

And what may be an Emirati Mirage after a possible bombing run on Iran's Lavan.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041896258814566560

 

[pagliacci]

All I know is, Trump is gonna get crushed in the midterms.

 

[TwoTribes]

First, that is not "a whole hospital".
AFAIK it was a 120mm tank HE shell fired at the external staircase where the alleged cameraman was standing.
It could be lethal, but 22 fatalities from a single 120mm shell is far fetched. And of course, the cameraman was the target, not the hospital.

Two shots.

Second, just because a Hamas combatant is in or around a hospital, doesn't mean the combatant is protected. Nor does it mean the hospital loses its own protection.
But the camera coincides with the location from which Hamas showed combat footage, making it a legitimate military target.
And a 120mm shell does have a fairly limited lethal area, making it an adequate weapon of choice.

“I can tell from my own personal experience in the army that some actions of high strategic importance were indefinitely deferred due to likelihood of civilian harm.” Why is your experience not working again?

Suspected militants? Fine. But what's far more obvious is that there were also multiple civilians, rescue workers, and journalists — they were clearly the majority. Since you can identify whether someone is armed or not, can you also clearly make out the prominent rescue markings — the bright orange vests?

 

[SUPER=BUG]

As for who wins or loses, we'll naturally know the answer once everything is over. There's no need for everyone to keep arguing; arguing here won't get us anywhere. It's better to get back to the main topic while things haven't gotten out of control yet.

 

[Big_Zukini]

Two shots.

Yes. Doesn't change the whole picture though.

can tell from my own personal experience in the army that some actions of high strategic importance were indefinitely deferred due to likelihood of civilian harm.” Why is your experience not working again?

Suspected militants? Fine. But what's far more obvious is that there were also multiple civilians, rescue workers, and journalists — they were clearly the majority. Since you can identify whether someone is armed or not, can you also clearly make out the prominent rescue markings — the bright orange vests?

It is actually NOT that easy to identify if someone is a combatant. And being a combatant =/= being armed.
Many roles within a military do not require carrying a firearm. And a spotter would be a legitimate target.

Additionally, perfidy is very commonly used there. I remember in briefings on Radwan, it was said they're using all sorts of vans for transportation, including some ambulances.
Press vests are also liberally handed out to combatants, particularly those doing recon.

In that incident, however, the IDF conducted an inquiry and found out the 2nd shot violated RoE. So the crew and their chain of command were reprimanded, and the case itself is an exception and not the rule.

Still, with all that said, it does not constitute a targeting of an entire hospital, and the intent was certainly not harm to civilians.

 

[alberchico]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041843056496857548

View: https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2041843056496857548

 

[TwoTribes]

In that incident, however, the IDF conducted an inquiry and found out the 2nd shot violated RoE. So the crew and their chain of command were reprimanded, and the case itself is an exception and not the rule.

Xaxa

 

[Big_Zukini]

Weeks ago, the WH (White House) issued vague statements about talking to a friendlier regime in Iran. Someone other than the IRGC perhaps.
Now they are talking about a friendlier regime as well.

I think there is much that is yet unknown.

 

[Arjen]

Now they are talking about a friendlier regime as well.

I think there is much that is yet unknown imaginary.

FTFY.

 

[Desertfox]

There have been multiple confirmed incidents of Israel targeting clearly marked international aid convoys that had previously stated their route to Israel.

Also Israel has a very large "allowable civilian casualty" ratio, that if extrapolated from their assessed number of Hamas militants, would basically make all of the Palestinians in Gaza allowable colateral damage.

 

[snne]

Nobody said anything when Russia did it in the middle of an Eastern European winter, and the difference is Europe will probably send aid for civilians afterwards. Iran has targeted a large perecentage of the world's energy in the Hormuz straight and cluster bombed cities, they have no right to expect anything else.

How Western-centric and naive you are...

And no, this doesn't mean one is better than the other.

Ok so just not dying completely is victory. We shall see how the IRGC handles the new economic situation and what happens within those 2 weeks and after them.

You should realize that they are fighting a war of independence and survival.

Y’all may have forgotten about it (due to being able to bomb others without it having any impact on your life and all that), so how about you imagine bombs falling on you and your loved ones’ heads in civilian areas when you’re out living an ordinary life; and those people who drop those bombs claim there were military targets there and glorify their killing?

Thanks to mass bombings of critical civilian infrastructure “in order to encourage an uprising", your idiotic, villianous government and military leaders have made it so that the Iranian population will (and already has by not leaving the country) rally around the flag until the whole country gets itself out of these desperate times.

How stupid of you to think that merely dropping hundreds of thousands of bombs will get you out of any trouble or encourage the people you bomb to rise up against their elitist government. Even I can think through these scenarios and empathize with their civilian population even though I’ve despised them long before any of you did.

 

[Big_Zukini]

There have been multiple confirmed incidents of Israel targeting clearly marked international aid convoys that had previously stated their route to Israel.

Clear marking in itself has little significance unless there is intelligence confirming they are indeed civilians. Otherwise treating with suspicion is legitimate.

Also Israel has a very large "allowable civilian casualty" ratio, that if extrapolated from their assessed number of Hamas militants, would basically make all of the Palestinians in Gaza allowable colateral damage.

The default NCV is 0-1. That is one of the world's lowest, and far below what NATO members (except USA) for example can realistically generate.

You should realize that they are fighting a war of independence and survival

I am well aware of that. The IRGC is a difficult enemy to dislodge.

Y’all may have forgotten about it (due to being able to bomb others without it having any impact on your life and all that), so how about you imagine bombs falling on you and your loved ones’ heads in civilian areas when you’re out living an ordinary life; and those people who drop those bombs claim there were military targets there and glorify their killing?

That is my daily life, and has been since birth.

Thanks to mass bombings of critical civilian infrastructure “in order to encourage an uprising", your idiotic, villianous government and military leaders have made it so that the Iranian population will (and already has by not leaving the country) rally around the flag until the whole country gets itself out of these desperate times.

That would be a very unwise decision on their part, that will prevent their rehabilitation and lock Iran into perpetual suffering.

How stupid of you to think that merely dropping hundreds of thousands of bombs will get you out of any trouble or encourage the people you bomb to rise up against their elitist government. Even I can think through these scenarios and empathize with their civilian population even though I’ve despised them long before any of you did.

I never despised the civilian population of Iran and I am surprised you'd admit you have.
Why do you then blame me for the alleged targeting of people you despise?

 

[Big_Zukini]

NETANYAHU VAGUEPOSTING ABOUT THE heu.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2041934796012564954

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

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