2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran and elsewhere in region - News and Discussion

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Thinking ahead because this whole misendeavor is probably going to keep on going for the foreseeable future what sort of ability does the USN have to do minesweeping these days? If escorting maritime traffic through the straight, I'd personally be more worried about mines than drones and whatever (hopefully small) number of AShMs they have left.

I know the LCS was supposed to be able to do the minesweeping job but did that capability ever materialize?

Quite frankly the USN *should* have the ability to escort traffic through. Decades of miserable performance at shipbuilding by the Navy and its contractors and the inability to commit and stick to shipbuilding plans on the part of leadership are taking its toll.
 
TwoTribes said:
Hamas: (I do not consider this organization to be a terrorist organization. But someone say)
theintercept.com

Blowback: How Israel Went From Helping Create Hamas to Bombing It

Hamas wants to destroy Israel, right? But as Mehdi Hasan shows in a new video on blowback, Israeli officials admit they helped start the group.
theintercept.com theintercept.com
www.analystnews.org

How Israel helped prop up Hamas for decades | Analyst News

What is Hamas, and why has Israel deliberately enabled its existence for years?
www.analystnews.org www.analystnews.org

ISIS: (I think the ISIS rarely apologizes. As far as I know, they have never apologized to Iran.)

Israel forgives Daesh for attack following ‘apology’​

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Maybe because Israel actively funded ISIS and predecessor organizations
 
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EmoBirb said:
Maybe because Israel actively funded ISIS and predecessor organizations
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While Daesh in Syria and Iraq was largely handled by the US and Russia, its presence in J&S, Gaza, and Sinai was removed by Israel, including in joint military campaigns with Egypt.


Iranian diplomats raising some signs of surrender. Time will tell if it's true and what exactly they intend to surrender.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2041627174718058620

More strikes on PMF.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2041629741619241395
 
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Big_Zukini said:
What they examined was not the speech, but the intelligence itself.
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I remember the frankly very astonishing operation to get a hold of the Iranian nuclear (weapons) archive. I also remember the subsequent very underwhelming appraisals about its contents from the expert community I happen to follow. My own impression is that Netanyahu and his cabinet (some of whom up until the very recent past were not highly thought of by U.S. intelligence and sanctioning bodies for their extremism) have had a very clear decadal strategy in the region.

It's not that the JCPOA was a fundamentally flawed deal or unfit for purpose, it's just that it stood in the way of implementing the Netanyahu headed strategy when (a perceived) opportunity (very meticulously prepared) to try and radically, abruptly rearrange the security environment through the application of force presented itself. They couldn't think out of their box and when the Iranian regime (for once, on their part) did with the JCPOA it was conceived of as a threat. The opportunity cost of even entertaining an alternative path was deemed too great, too uncertain. Perhaps off-hand.

There are of course double standards of expectations of governments and regimes. But if their ever was a metric for accumulating responsibility, piles of body bags is a pretty incorruptible one.

The heterogenous Iranian populace endured a number of convulsions against its totalitarian regime during the past decade or two and I'm left ruing that nothing like the resources we see now being poured to cause general societal harm was invested in supporting the repressed majority (or rather, plurality of minorities). Israel has, after all, displayed a proficiency in targeting Iranian nuclear scientists within their society without open warfare; Wikipedia, at least, doesn't list any assassinations during the brief years the JCPOA stood so perhaps the U.S. discouraged the practice at the time.

None of this is to lay responsibility of all this at the feet of individual posters here. Israel's immediate security environment has been challenging at the best of times. But the JCPOA (as an outlier from a trend) does stand as one prominent bellwether as to how we got here and still indicates intent and types of informational spaces. Reality (as shared, not only individually perceived) can also be pushed aside so far in pursuit of objectives for those very same objectives to be corrupted by the deviation itself and I'm afraid we've gone from being sometimes rightly skeptical of optimism to holding any at least somewhat positive outcome, however far into the future, as naïve. It's part and parcel of the circle of history hopelessness narrative that the international authoritarian network weaponizes.

Anyway, here's a podcast about "Netanyahu and the Atomic Archive" from May 1st, 2018 with some additional links within. The intelligence was essentially what an IAEA report from 2015 already found but with original sources and graphics. The podcast is something of a time capsule and partially in conclusion Jeffery Lewis says "we get to write op-eds saying 'we told you so'":

Netanyahu and the Atomic Archive

www.armscontrolwonk.com www.armscontrolwonk.com

The laughably deniable totalitarian proliferation pipeline is of course now much streamlined from the days of A.Q. Khan so the JCPOA would be under strains unforeseen at the time. But even this has parallels with what failed the agreement. For all the determined pushing and planning to bring things to this head in the Middle East, all the improvisation and scrambling now required stands in stark contrast to the conscious effort that arms control requires of its participants and its supporting societies at large.
 
Colonial-Marine said:
Thinking ahead because this whole misendeavor is probably going to keep on going for the foreseeable future what sort of ability does the USN have to do minesweeping these days? If escorting maritime traffic through the straight, I'd personally be more worried about mines than drones and whatever (hopefully small) number of AShMs they have left.

I know the LCS was supposed to be able to do the minesweeping job but did that capability ever materialize?

Quite frankly the USN *should* have the ability to escort traffic through. Decades of miserable performance at shipbuilding by the Navy and its contractors and the inability to commit and stick to shipbuilding plans on the part of leadership are taking its toll.
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The 4 Avengers in Bahrain left a month before the war started. There's only 4 left in Japan. Of the 3 LCS in theater, two left the Gulf. So there's a grand total of maybe 1 LCS in theater, capable of mine sweeping.
 
had said:
80 -140 ships per day, 365 days a year.
Even with the greatest ships ever build, it wouldn't be sustainable
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We ran convoys from 1939 to 1945 across an entire ocean, facing u-boats attacking in packs, in the worst months losing upwards of 500,000t of shipping a month, while simultaneously sustaining ongoing military campaigns in North Africa, and resupplying Malta in combined operations so complex they took fleets sailing from both ends of the Med at once. Meanwhile the coastal convoys saw daily air and surface attack. The entire logistics support for military campaigns in the Far East, Italy and Southern France flowed by sea, ultimately leading to D-Day and the successful invasion of Northern Europe, while out in the Pacific entire ports were prefabricated and moved thousands of miles to where they were needed.

Why question whether it would be sustainable, when the answer is we already handled worse once before?
 
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Doesn't this simply give Iran a valuable reprieve that allows them to regroup and move around and hide their remaining military assets?
 
Yes, Israel can't suppress Iran's missiles without US assistance, so Iran can just dig them out.
 

距离“最后期限”不到一个半小时 特朗普同意与伊朗停火两周-新华网

距离“最后期限”不到一个半小时 特朗普同意与伊朗停火两周-
www3.xinhuanet.com
Xinhua News Agency, Washington, April 7 — On the evening of April 7, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that after a phone call with the Pakistani side, he agreed to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks, on the condition that Iran agrees to “fully, immediately, and safely” open the Strait of Hormuz.

At this time, it was less than an hour and a half before the “deadline” set by Trump for Iran.

Israel's Channel 12 TV cited a White House official as saying that Israel also agreed to a ceasefire and to suspend airstrikes on Iran for two weeks. The media also quoted an Israeli official as saying that the ceasefire would take effect after Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump said on social media that Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz and Army Chief of Staff Munir requested a delay in the U.S. military airstrikes on Iran that evening. Based on his conversation with them and on the premise that Iran agrees to “fully, immediately, and safely” open the Strait of Hormuz, he agreed to a two-week ceasefire, emphasizing that “this will be a two-way ceasefire.”

Trump stated that he made this decision because the U.S. had “achieved and exceeded all military objectives.” In addition, substantive progress has been made toward establishing a “long-term peace” with Iran and achieving a final agreement for peace in the Middle East.

He said the U.S. received a ten-point proposal from Iran and believes the proposal could serve as a viable basis for negotiations. On various issues where there were previously disagreements, the U.S. and Iran have basically reached consensus. The two-week buffer period will help both sides finalize and reach this agreement.

Earlier, Shahbaz posted on social media: “Diplomatic efforts aimed at peacefully ending the current Middle East conflict are advancing steadily and strongly and are expected to achieve tangible results in the near term.” To give space for the diplomatic process, he requested Trump to extend the “deadline” by two weeks and also asked the “brotherly Iranians” to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks as a gesture of goodwill. Shahbaz also called on all parties involved in the conflict to observe a two-week ceasefire to allow the diplomatic process to ultimately end the war and maintain long-term peace and stability in the Middle East.

On April 6, U.S. President Trump said that the U.S. military would need only “four hours” to destroy all bridges and power stations in Iran; whether the conflict with Iran would escalate or approach an end depended on Iran's response to the “deadline” set by him at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 7. On April 7, Trump posted on social media again, threatening Iran by saying: “Tonight, all of civilization will perish. I do not wish for this to happen, but it may happen.
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伊朗公布10项停战条款主要内容-新华网

伊朗公布10项停战条款主要内容-
www.news.cn
Tehran, April 8 (Xinhua) - On the 8th, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council issued a statement, announcing the main contents of ten ceasefire terms submitted to the United States via Pakistan.

These contents include: Controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces; the cessation of war against all regional resistance forces; withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region; formulation of a Strait of Hormuz security passage agreement to ensure Iran's dominant position; full compensation for Iran's estimated losses; lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, and revocation of relevant resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN Security Council; unfreezing all Iranian overseas assets and properties; and ultimately passing a binding UN Security Council resolution approving all the above terms.

The statement said that the approval of the Security Council resolution will make all these terms binding under international law, 'bringing a significant diplomatic victory to Iran,' and that Pakistan has informed Iran that the U.S. has accepted the above principles as a basis for negotiations.
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It seems that Iran will continue to exist.In any case, it's considered good news.
 
On the Strait of Hormuz....what would be the Farsi spelling of "Thermopylae Pass" "Leonidas," and "brave Horatius?"

The drone names could use improvements.

Then too, I could probably close that strait with bass-boats, hillbillies and RPGs.

Megaforce 2
 
publiusr said:
Iraq is, what--a bit of a client state of Iran?
Any Iraqi incursion possible? Potential Janissaries?
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Most of Iraq is the non-Iranian, Sunni, branch of Islam. So it'd be more likely to have Iraq come into the fight on the US side, just to shoot a bunch of Shia. (Yes, the relationship is that acrimonious.)
 
DWG said:
We ran convoys from 1939 to 1945 across an entire ocean, facing u-boats attacking in packs, in the worst months losing upwards of 500,000t of shipping a month, while simultaneously sustaining ongoing military campaigns in North Africa, and resupplying Malta in combined operations so complex they took fleets sailing from both ends of the Med at once. Meanwhile the coastal convoys saw daily air and surface attack. The entire logistics support for military campaigns in the Far East, Italy and Southern France flowed by sea, ultimately leading to D-Day and the successful invasion of Northern Europe, while out in the Pacific entire ports were prefabricated and moved thousands of miles to where they were needed.

Why question whether it would be sustainable, when the answer is we already handled worse once before?
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Differences I see between the 2.WW and the current Iranian War would be that
- it seems that there is no clear and achievable goal for the Iranian War (Regime change through bombing only?)
- the dangers in the strait are asymmetric (mobile, small, cheap). More like a guerilla warfare, which you have to counter with permanent presence, imo.
- there was some kind of support by the US population for the second world war

I cannot see an ongoing support in the US for this kind of engagement, where the navy has to relocate a bunch of vessels in the strait for years. You?
That is why I don’t find it a sustainable solution.
Scott Kenny said:
Most of Iraq is the non-Iranian, Sunni, branch of Islam. So it'd be more likely to have Iraq come into the fight on the US side, just to shoot a bunch of Shia. (Yes, the relationship is that acrimonious.)
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A 2015 estimate by the CIA World Factbook reported that 64-69% of Iraqis were Shia Muslims and 29–34% were Sunni Muslims.

Iraq - The World Factbook

web.archive.org web.archive.org
 
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综合消息丨美伊同意停火两周　将在巴基斯坦谈判-新华网

综合消息丨美伊同意停火两周　将在巴基斯坦谈判-
www.news.cn
Iranian Foreign Minister Aragzi issued a statement on the 8th, announcing that the Strait of Hormuz will be safely navigable within two weeks. He did not specify a specific date for the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz confirmed that Iran and the United States, as well as their respective allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire in all locations, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately. He invited the delegations of Iran and the United States to further negotiate in Islamabad on the 10th to reach a final agreement to resolve all disputes.

"The two sides have shown extraordinary wisdom and understanding, and have continued to engage in the cause of peace and stability in a constructive manner," Shahbaz said. We sincerely hope that the 'Islamabad talks' will succeed in achieving sustainable peace, and we look forward to sharing more good news in the coming days!"

According to US media reports, the Trump administration is preparing for possible face-to-face talks between the United States and Iran, and the two sides are currently working on a long-term agreement to end the conflict. Given that the two sides have just announced a ceasefire, the possibility of such talks is becoming more and more likely.

Trump recently claimed that if Iran does not reach an agreement with the United States or open the Strait of Hormuz by 20 o'clock EST on the 7th, the United States will destroy Iran's power plants and bridges. Trump threatened Iran on social media on the 7th: "Tonight, the whole civilization will die." I don't want this to happen, but it could happen. ”

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that once the United States crosses the "red line", Iran will "no longer restrain" and will attack the infrastructure of the United States and its regional allies. Iran's Tasnim news agency quoted an Iranian military source as saying that Iran has prepared some surprises for Trump's "possible madness", one of which is to target Saudi Aramco, Yanbu oil facilities and the UAE's Fujairah oil pipeline.
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As a supplement.
 
Tehran, April 8 (Xinhua) - On the 8th, the Iranian Supreme National Security Council issued a statement, announcing the main contents of ten ceasefire terms submitted to the United States via Pakistan.

These contents include: Controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz coordinated with Iranian armed forces; the cessation of war against all regional resistance forces; withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all bases and deployment points in the region; formulation of a Strait of Hormuz security passage agreement to ensure Iran's dominant position; full compensation for Iran's estimated losses; lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, and revocation of relevant resolutions by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN Security Council; unfreezing all Iranian overseas assets and properties; and ultimately passing a binding UN Security Council resolution approving all the above terms.

The statement said that the approval of the Security Council resolution will make all these terms binding under international law, 'bringing a significant diplomatic victory to Iran,' and that Pakistan has informed Iran that the U.S. has accepted the above principles as a basis for negotiations.
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Zero chance the US would agree to any of that period.

They just bought themselves a 2-week hiatus to try and figure out how to sort this, re-arm and not have oil at $200 a barrel.

Regards,
 
Oh, it just takes some time... making peace is often much harder than starting a war.

They will hold negotiations on the 10th in Pakistan.
 
I think no one should be having any illusions about the americans let alone 'israel' respecting any ceasefire or honour any agreement, their track record proves it. If there is any lull in the fighting Iran should go full on for the bomb with the HEU they have. They need their own Samson option and adopt the kind of doctrine we saw hinted elsewhere, especially given the increasing allusions of the americans and 'israel' preparing to use nuclear weapons against Iran, something along the lines if there will be no Iran there will be no 'israel' either, and preferably a big chunk of US and their satellites. Only then the Netanyahu and Trump regimes might have seconds thoughts. There is a reason they are not even thinking about saying something out to place to DPRK, let alone try the same aggression as they did against Iran. A few megatons of MAD has that effect.
 
A day on the brink with Iran ended with a TACO and grave constitutional questions


Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also made clear Iran won’t relax any of its leverage even during the two-week ceasefire. “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” he wrote on X. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency, meanwhile, reported that Iran and Oman plan to charge transit fees for ships passing through the strait during the ceasefire.

Trump derided the Supreme National Security Council statement as a fraud and attacked CNN for reporting it.
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Regards,
 
lancer21 said:
I think no one should be having any illusions about the americans let alone 'israel' respecting any ceasefire or honour any agreement, their track record proves it. If there is any lull in the fighting Iran should go full on for the bomb with the HEU they have. They need their own Samson option
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That isn't going to happen with their history with Sunnis. The Iraq War on Dubya's part was a great gift to them...which they squandered with their own proxy fights.

No one has clean hands.

Geography is their only friend now.

I would have hoped the war of the cities would have soured the populace on war. The absurdity of how little toy aircraft can play havoc with a First World nation that still thinks it is still fighting the battle of Midway--I hope that sours people the world over.

World War II was epic....soldiers crave relevance. But when R/C hobbyists reign, and with pumpkin chunker air cannons and RPG equipped triremes scaring tankers out of a Strait---the utility of all brass-heavy Zhukov wanna-bes the world over---are at last being called into question. And not just in the US.

All countries have a Hegseth.

Persia's greatest fighter? Tigran Petrosian.

Let other fields of endeavor be where national pride takes root.

Were it not for Haber Bosch, WWI might well have been the War to end All Wars.

At no time in history has war been LESS majestic.

That is good.
 
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www.bbc.com

Iran and US agree to conditional two-week ceasefire and opening of Hormuz strait after Trump's threat - follow live

Pakistan says it will host talks between the two sides on Friday. Israel says it supports the ceasefire but it "does not include Lebanon".
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

www.bbc.com

How Pakistan helped secure a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran

Pakistan has a historic relationship with Iran, but an agreement was far from certain, writes the BBC’s Caroline Davies
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
From what I'm seeing, this looks like a pretty costly but strategic win for Iran. At the same time, it's a strategic setback for the US, despite its military dominance on the field.

It reminds me of Vietnam and Afghanistan — where a weaker side, with a much higher tolerance for taking hits and still not breaking, eventually forces the stronger power (which has a lower pain threshold when the costs start piling up) to pull back or give up on its goals.

Control over Strait of Hormuz being Iran's Trump card, that worked.
 
TwoTribes said:
Hamas: (I do not consider this organization to be a terrorist organization. But someone say)
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If you don't consider the deliberate targeting and killing of 1,400 civilians to be the actions of a terrorist group, then we have a problem.

TwoTribes said:

Israel forgives Daesh for attack following ‘apology’​

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If the insinuation is that they're co-operating, surely they'd want to keep that quiet, which doesn't involve publicising an official apology.

Arjen said:
Mike Pompeo was US Secretary of State at the time, testifying to Congress, one month before US withdrawal from JCPOA, with the US President declaring Netanyahu's presentation convinced him to withdraw. Meaningless?
This earlier Haaretz quote:
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A 24 day waiting period before inspecting military sites prevents verification. I mean, you can move office in one afternoon using manual labour.

Halcyon66 said:
A day on the brink with Iran ended with a TACO and grave constitutional questions


Regards,
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Transit fees would be a breach of the ceasefire agreement.
 
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So the strait will be reopened with supervision from the IRGC and a toll?
 
Halcyon66 said:
Gulf countries scramble to intercept missiles hours into U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement

www.cnbc.com

Gulf countries scramble to intercept missiles hours into U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement

Many Middle Eastern countries continued to report incoming ballistic missiles and drones from Iran on Wednesday, within hours after the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Maybe Iran didn't get the memo :cool:

Regards,
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Usually there is a 24-hour period allowed for a ceasefire to be communicated.
 
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