US FF(X) Program

[CastleBravo]

Two years from now: "The Navy has settled on a Korean design for it's next frigate class, but there remain concerns that aspects of the design don't conform to USN design standards. Naval Sea Systems Command believes that these concerns can be addressed with minimal changes."

Four years from now: "The Department of the Navy remains adamant that the current work stoppage on the lead ship of the new John Connally class of frigates does not rise to the level of a 'total design review,' and they are confident that work will resume within the next 67-94 weeks."

6 years from now: "The United States Navy's controversial pivot away from blue water operations to a more 'Homeland-focused, close in observation' concept of operations has hit a snag as the Navy is having trouble sourcing adequate numbers of binoculars for sailors to monitor the sea from the shore..."

You forgot the $16B study to determine if foreign binoculars can be modified to suit the Navy's needs.

 

[MrTopaz]

You forgot the $16B study to determine if foreign binoculars can be modified to suit the Navy's needs.

That's 8 years from now.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Anyone with SSNs is going to track the convoy by satellite, so all the sub needs to do is get in range of missiles and shoot at coordinates from other platforms. ASW escorts at best keep the subs from closing to torpedo range. The real torpedo threat will come from UUVs.

If there's no reason to bunch up because any individual merchant target can effectively outrun a sub, there's no reason to convoy up to begin with.

Also, convoying means the merchant targets are more vulnerable to aircraft (and AShBMs/hypersonic).

 

[MihoshiK]

Two years from now: "The Navy has settled on a Korean design for it's next frigate class, but there remain concerns that aspects of the design don't conform to USN design standards. Naval Sea Systems Command believes that these concerns can be addressed with minimal changes."

Four years from now: "The Department of the Navy remains adamant that the current work stoppage on the lead ship of the new John Connally class of frigates does not rise to the level of a 'total design review,' and they are confident that work will resume within the next 67-94 weeks."

6 years from now: "The United States Navy's controversial pivot away from blue water operations to a more 'Homeland-focused, close in observation' concept of operations has hit a snag as the Navy is having trouble sourcing adequate numbers of binoculars for sailors to monitor the sea from the shore..."

The year is 2045.
The third attempt at a Gerald R. Ford replacement has been cancelled due to cost overruns, the Navy has opted instead to order 22 Arleigh Burke-class guided missile helicopter destroyers.

The year is 2065.
The US Navy orders 18 more Arleigh Burke flight 5s as a stopgap after development is delayed on the new frigate.

The year is 2085.
The entire surface fleet…it's all Burkes…the only ship the US can still build.

The year is 2105.
The Secretary of the Navy performs the annual sacrifice of a multi-billion dollar project to appease the Burke gods, as is tradition.

 

[cccgong]

If there's no reason to bunch up because any individual merchant target can effectively outrun a sub, there's no reason to convoy up to begin with.

Also, convoying means the merchant targets are more vulnerable to aircraft (and AShBMs/hypersonic).

Convoying means they are less vunerable to missiles as they can be protected. You also forgot that Chinese subs have sub launch anti ship missiles. If you dispersed your merchants that just becomes a free for all turkey shoot for the Chinese.

Two years from now: "The Navy has settled on a Korean design for it's next frigate class, but there remain concerns that aspects of the design don't conform to USN design standards. Naval Sea Systems Command believes that these concerns can be addressed with minimal changes."

Four years from now: "The Department of the Navy remains adamant that the current work stoppage on the lead ship of the new John Connally class of frigates does not rise to the level of a 'total design review,' and they are confident that work will resume within the next 67-94 weeks."

6 years from now: "The United States Navy's controversial pivot away from blue water operations to a more 'Homeland-focused, close in observation' concept of operations has hit a snag as the Navy is having trouble sourcing adequate numbers of binoculars for sailors to monitor the sea from the shore..."

I’ve been saying this for a while, we should just settle on the Super Mogami as the anti Chinese alliance frigate. Japan and Australia will operate it. Taiwan looks likely and if the US were to join this would simplify logistics and upgrades

 

[DWG]

Large USVs won't need to be recovered. ~200ft length means 200-300t lightship displacement, 300-700t full load. Much of the load will be fuel for long range patrols. So no need for a well deck or LPD-17 mothership.

That's a teeny-tiny thing, the RN is looking at 2500ts for Type 92.

 

[Maro.Kyo]

And here we go again.

https://news.usni.org/2026/04/24/u-s-considering-foreign-designs-shipyards-for-new-navy-frigate-destroyer-work-in-1-85b-study

They can let the Koreans build Incheon class for them. FF(X) already is not much more than a glorified Incheon class that costs 8-fold of what Incheons costed ROKN. Or they could let them build 6 FFG-3s for the same price of a single FF(X) with BMD and fleet defence capable radar on top of proper ASW suite. If they want more endurance they'll have it with enlarged hulls for modest increase of price...

Spoiler

Obviously a joke and even if they let Korean or Japanese Shipyards build their own design for the USN, it would still be more expensive since USN will require them to fit it out with equipment specified by them, instead of the original equipment for ROKN or JMSDF. But I'm pretty certain you'll still get 2~3 FFG-3s or New FFMs fitted with USN specified equipment for the price of one FF(X) built in the US.

 

[Kat Tsun]

I'd suspect the most immediate orders from the USN to foreign shipbuilders will be a replacement for the Kaisers and possibly the Whidbey Islands. Those are the oldest ships in the fleet besides the LCCs, and most in need of immediate replacement, because they're both auxiliaries pressed into a few too many decades of service.

Combatants can be built in America for now.

 

[Scott Kenny]

I'd suspect the most immediate orders from the USN to foreign shipbuilders will be a replacement for the Kaisers and possibly the Whidbey Islands. Those are the oldest ships in the fleet besides the LCCs, and most in need of immediate replacement, because they're both auxiliaries pressed into a few too many decades of service.

Combatants can be built in America for now.

Side note, I would hope that the LCCs and other random command ships get replaced by whatever comes out of the BBG program.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Convoying means they are less vunerable to missiles as they can be protected. You also forgot that Chinese subs have sub launch anti ship missiles. If you dispersed your merchants that just becomes a free for all turkey shoot for the Chinese.

But they only get one merchant target instead of multiples.

 

[johnpjones1775]

But they only get one merchant target instead of multiples.

They get multiple just spread out.
And who cares if they get 1 or 100 targets if they can’t hit them due to being protected?

 

[cccgong]

But they only get one merchant target instead of multiples.

These ASM have ranges of 2-300 miles. And the Chinese have something like 40 ssk and are building them at a rapid rate. With transparent oceans due to satellite targeting, there’s more than enough missiles and subs to sink every single merchant ship they want.

 

[Sferrin]

With transparent oceans due to satellite targeting, .

Wut?

 

[cccgong]

Satellites will know where all merchant ships are, and can transmit this over elf to subs on a rotating basis. Or subs can come up every once in a while to get the newest ship location datasets.

Also the Chinese have torpedo tube launched hypersonics now thought at 1-200 mile range. So you will want ddg escort for convoys in addition to ffg

Wut?

 

[Kat Tsun]

Side note, I would hope that the LCCs and other random command ships get replaced by whatever comes out of the BBG program.

"Nothing" is a great guess for what will replace the LCCs.

They'll likely get replaced by a combination of a USSF commo cube swarm and select LPD-17s with more SATCOM terminals rather than a dedicated hull. The only reason they have an actual LCC hull (it's really just an LPH tho) is because OTH commo used to be specialized and needed big antennae.

But they only get one merchant target instead of multiples.

Convoys aren't practical due to nuclear spacing demands.

The occupied sea area of something like HX 300 is barely enough for two modern CONEX ships at nuclear spacing with a single escort between them. I mean, you could make a convoy that spans 200 miles, and includes like two or three dozen ships, but it wouldn't be able to be protected due to the exponential increase in requirements for volume search. You go from needing like 4-6 warships to like 20-30. That's just running with the ships excluding the pierside guys.

Robots might reduce this but they're mainly going to be for URG and ARG escort. You'd need an entire JMSDF just to conduct escort operations for a couple convoys of merchants running back and forth between Hawaii and Taiwan.

If we had a spare "hundred or so" combatants and a few extra carriers around it'd be doable but we don't.

 

[MadRat]

The negative commentary is getting long in this thread. Maybe some here suggest it would be easier to just build more SSGNs at this point.

It sounds like most really want a Mogami but its no better than Constellation and is much like FREMM, nothing like U.S. standards. Mogami class is a 132 meter 5,500 ton ship featuring an OPY-2 radar, 32 tubes of Mark 41 baseline Baseline VII, 8 Type 17 ASM, RIM-116, 1 Sea Hawk, and a 5" gun. Lots of Japanese products. Sure it has a bigger gun, but otherwise is really no better than the Constellation class. F127 (based on MEKO A400) is a 160 meter and 10k ton ship featuring AN/SPY-6(V)1 radar, 96 tubes of Mark 41 baseline VIII, NSM Block 1A, RGM-179 JAGM, Mark 99 fire control, RIM-116, 2 Sea Tigers, and a 5" gun. The downside is the first delivery is not expected until the mid-2030s after a 2024 approval. That is unrealistic since we can probably build a clean design by then.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Satellites will know where all merchant ships are, and can transmit this over elf to subs on a rotating basis.

Nope. ELF doesn't have the data rate for that.

Or subs can come up every once in a while to get the newest ship location datasets.

That is more viable. But forces the Sub to slow down to ~5knots to avoid leaving a wake behind the periscope.

Also the Chinese have torpedo tube launched hypersonics now thought at 1-200 mile range. So you will want ddg escort for convoys in addition to ffg

Hypersonics means that those missiles are flying high and diving down towards the targets.

Which are a nigh-trivial target for a modern FFG if they're shooting at it.

Now, you might actually want a DDG to have the big radars to track those, but anything holding a Mk41 cell, including a container ship with a Mk70 box on it, can effectively shoot at them.

 

[cccgong]

Nope. ELF doesn't have the data rate for that.



That is more viable. But forces the Sub to slow down to ~5knots to avoid leaving a wake behind the periscope.



Hypersonics means that those missiles are flying high and diving down towards the targets.

Which are a nigh-trivial target for a modern FFG if they're shooting at it.

Now, you might actually want a DDG to have the big radars to track those, but anything holding a Mk41 cell, including a container ship with a Mk70 box on it, can effectively shoot at them.

ELF can work for this. I’ve talked about this on another forum. Headquarters can break down and pre-filter all convoys they want the subs to engage. Breaking down speed, bearing, information time, priority can be done in under 20 bits. Even less if you pre-assign different combinations of things in a codebook. As 20 bits means a million possible messages.

This is very doable for ELF if you broadcast things on a loop and just wait for your subs to pick it up.

You would need a TDG for sure. I would not put expensive SM3 on cargo ships as they will still need a big radar so you’re required to have a DDG and a couple of frigates. The frigates primarily for sea skimmers acting as a radar picket. Even if you had some sort of radar drone, you would still want more than one ship to provide some defense against saturation attacks

 

[Scott Kenny]

ELF can work for this. I’ve talked about this on another forum. Headquarters can break down and pre-filter all convoys they want the subs to engage. Breaking down speed, bearing, information time, priority can be done in under 20 bits. Even less if you pre-assign different combinations of things in a codebook. As 20 bits means a million possible messages.

Add current location of target, or the location where you want the sub to go to that broadcast. Decimal degrees to two places.

Now how many bits do you need?

And what do you think is the data rate of the ELF broadcast?

This is very doable for ELF if you broadcast things on a loop and just wait for your subs to pick it up.

I've spent a few months on ELF "beeper watch." The most effective way to use ELF is to announce changes in DEFCON and to tell any given ship or ships that they have radio traffic and need to come to periscope depth.

ELF is functionally a pager.

You would need a TDG for sure. I would not put expensive SM3 on cargo ships as they will still need a big radar so you’re required to have a DDG and a couple of frigates. The frigates primarily for sea skimmers acting as a radar picket. Even if you had some sort of radar drone, you would still want more than one ship to provide some defense against saturation attacks

I'm talking SM2 or SM6 on the merchies, with the DDG providing radar coverage. SM3 is for ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere only!

 

[cccgong]

Add current location of target, or the location where you want the sub to go to that broadcast. Decimal degrees to two places.

Now how many bits do you need?

And what do you think is the data rate of the ELF broadcast?



I've spent a few months on ELF "beeper watch." The most effective way to use ELF is to announce changes in DEFCON and to tell any given ship or ships that they have radio traffic and need to come to periscope depth.

ELF is functionally a pager.




I'm talking SM2 or SM6 on the merchies, with the DDG providing radar coverage. SM3 is for ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere only!

You can give general coordinates/grid square and bearing information. If you want more possible permutations increase it to 23 bits and you have 8 million options. Corse information will be enough either way, as the sub only needs to launch the missile in the right direction at the right time. The missile can get live more granular information via sat link once it’s launched.

ELF data rates are higher than that. I’ve seen paper claiming 0.1-1bit /s. If we take the lower bound 0.1bit. You can transmit a high priority convoy info every 12ish minutes (20bit plus ecc) which isn’t bad as there likely aren’t that many anyways.

You can also use slf/vlf and an antenna at 20-50m depth and have the sub be deeper. Then you can get single digit bits/s

Also the US likely didn’t employ such a system as convoy raiding is much less important for the US during the Cold War.

That was a typo should have been sm6.

 

[Kat Tsun]

Hypersonics means that those missiles are flying high and diving down towards the targets.

Which are a nigh-trivial target for a modern FFG if they're shooting at it.

The problem with hypersonics isn't their speed as they're subsonic before they impact anyway. It's that they maneuver at hypersonic speeds and can fake out an air defense battery by depleting munitions with successive fake attack profiles before skipping away into near space. This would be pretty easy to bait with an automatic system like Aegis that uses altitude and speed gating.

You also need extremely high power interceptors, like THAAD-ER, to engage them at convoy distances. PAC-3 is a self defense weapon.

Now, you might actually want a DDG to have the big radars to track those, but anything holding a Mk41 cell, including a container ship with a Mk70 box on it, can effectively shoot at them.

You'll want something more than a DDG. Glide Breaker might be workable with a space based sensor system.

Small escorts like DDGs/FFs are useful for ASW regardless even if that's unlikely for a Chinese SSN force.

 

[cccgong]

The problem with hypersonics isn't their speed as they're subsonic before they impact anyway. It's that they maneuver at hypersonic speeds and can fake out an air defense battery by depleting munitions with successive fake attack profiles before skipping away into near space. This would be pretty easy to bait with an automatic system like Aegis that uses altitude and speed gating.

You also need extremely high power interceptors, like THAAD-ER, to engage them at convoy distances. PAC-3 is a self defense weapon.



You'll want something more than a DDG. Glide Breaker might be workable with a space based sensor system.

Hypersonics aren’t subsonic before right before impact. I don’t know where you got that from

 

[Kat Tsun]

Hypersonics aren’t subsonic before right before impact. I don’t know where you got that from

My bad, sub-hypersonic. A maneuvering vehicle will be going around M3-4 during terminal using the onboard seeker. It's not that much bigger a threat than a Kh-22, which is already solved, but more concerning is the potential of successive pull ups depleting interceptor magazines.

The maneuvering glider aspect is more dangerous than the speed itself because maneuvering puts an upper limit on terminal velocity.

 

[Ainen]

Satellites will know where all merchant ships are, and can transmit this over elf to subs on a rotating basis. Or subs can come up every once in a while to get the newest ship location datasets.

Target satellites? You can't fight like that.

 

[cccgong]

Target satellites? You can't fight like that.

When there’s hundreds to thousands it becomes impossible unless you’re willing to use exo atmospheric nukes and take down everything else up there