UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) News & Technical Analysis

TorpedoJ said:
Not sure if you're mocking it or not, but super long range is what they've been saying all along.
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Ural Bomber was a quite famous 1930's German aircraft programme that resulted in the Dornier Do 19 and Junkers Ju 89 prototypes before being cancelled in 1937 then resurrected in 1942-1944 as the Amerika Bomber programme resulting in the Ju 390 and Me 264.
 
timmymagic said:
Getting reported all over...surprised the talks are specifically with Italy and Japan though...weird that they've not engaged the UK....

Whatever is going on though.....they're not going to be involved in design or requirements...that ship has long sailed. A Tier 2 partnership with local production and ability to locally customise is the best they can hope for...
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I don't think that the Poles are looking at anything more than that. Just early access to getting those new planes.



timmymagic said:
It's also being reported elsewhere that the Indians and Saudi's are stepping up their interest....personally would have thought the Indian's would rather try and join SCAF with France if Germany and Spain bail...but what would that do to AMCA and TEDBF? Make them more realistic?
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Indians joining SCAF would likely replace TEDBF. And likely AMCA.
 
Scott Kenny said:
I don't think that the Poles are looking at anything more than that. Just early access to getting those new planes.




Indians joining SCAF would likely replace TEDBF. And likely AMCA.
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The AMCA is not getting replaced lmao. Idk why people keep saying this. Like the AMCA is not an aircraft but a way for India to develop its private defense aerospace industry. There is a reason HAL has been excluded from the program. Taking away the AMCA is like throwing away the development of your aerospace industry.

India didnt abandon the tejas even after a multitude of failures etc. precisely because the tejas was a way for India to develop its then practically non existent aerospace industry(in terms of indegenous design). The tejas as an aircraft might be a failure/too late but as a program to kickstart MSMEs and integrate the private industry into making the fuselage and wings etc its been a immense success. megacorpos like Tata and L&T owe it to the tejas program for their current aerospace experience.

1.8 B USD has alr been approved for the AMCA prototyping.

The 6th gen program is going to be a supplement so that while India does develop its aerospace industry it will try not to fall too far behind China. Its a parallel program not a replacement for the AMCA.

As for the TEDBF its a paper program and everyone on the planet knows it. No funds have been allocated for its development and the navy has alr told the MoD that developing a 2nd 4.5 gen fighter for the IN apart from the rafale would be useless. Its all the more likely that India will navalize the AMCA/create a new naval fighter using its design as a base since its a MWF and not a HWF.

Getting back to the point i believe that India would be better suited going for the SCAF since the IN needs a fighter for it anyway. It would make sense to go for the SCAF. But looking at current timelines it looks like SCAF is probably not going to happen for a long time unless dassault is allowed to go on its own.
GCAP on the other hand seems to be closer to its ambitious timeline of 2035(i dont think its going to be here 10 years from now but it wont be too far off compared to the extreme delay of the SCAF)
 
I wouldn't be surprised if india replaced germany in scaf, I dont see that program surviving but I could see (if india could ever unfuck its procurement system) india replacing a germany that moved to gcap (which consdering both the uk and Japan's economics needs a bigger partner then Poland to succeed)
 
Now Poland is interested.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

UK open to expanding GCAP as Poland signals interest

The United Kingdom is open in principle to expanding the GCAP jet project to additional nations, Defence Secretary John Healey told the UK Defence Journal, as Poland signals interest in joining the effort.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk ukdefencejournal.org.uk

They're gonna need a bigger pie.

Wisely though,

Healey, however, framed any such engagement as limited and exploratory, stressing that the programme remains firmly centred on its three core partners. “This is a programme with three countries at its core, Japan and Italy alongside the UK,” he said.

Healey made clear that his priority is maintaining progress within that existing structure, rather than expanding it. “As Defence Secretary, my first and foremost priority is making sure that the momentum that we’ve got in GCAP, the foundations we’ve already built… is maintained,” he said.

I just hope they haven't allocated the catering to the British. Let the Italians handle that.
 
Cjc said:
I wouldn't be surprised if india replaced germany in scaf, I dont see that program surviving but I could see (if india could ever unfuck its procurement system) india replacing a germany that moved to gcap (which consdering both the uk and Japan's economics needs a bigger partner then Poland to succeed)
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the issue is that while the Indian economy is doing ok its not like shining or anything either. It will take a few more years for India to truly financially contribute to the GCAP. So If India does join the GCAP or SCAF, India will prolly start its the majority of its contributions to the program in the 2030s when its built up enough of an economy that even significant contributions wouldnt matter.
But then here comes another issue, If India is expected to contribute significant amounts then India will want significant autonomy. If the GCAP allows India to use the common engine and the airframe while using its own avionics the the deal looks likely. Or India could use the provided avionics but that seems unlikely given the massive strides made in its own avionics and radars and the fact that it likes to maintain strategic autonomy.
 
Ron5 said:
From the minutes of the meeting between Starmer and the Japanese prime minister on Jan 21 in Japan:



https://www.mofa.go.jp/erp/erp_1/gb/pageite_000001_00003.html
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From the FT article (if the reddit post with it reposted in full is correct).

"UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer tried to reassure Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi of Britain’s commitment during his visit this year, but in the absence of any funding his reassurances did not hold much sway, said two people familiar with the visit."

"Tokyo has shifted its stance to become more open to signing deals with potential customers for the fighter jet to reduce the funding requirements on the UK, with Canada a leading potential customer, according to two of the people.

Japanese officials stressed that Tokyo is reluctant to allow the entry of any new design and development partner, however, given the complexities. Japan resisted a push last year by the UK and Italy to get Saudi Arabia involved in the development. Saudi Arabia was still in talks to join in some form, according to two people familiar with the situation."
 
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
From the FT article (if the reddit post with it reposted in full is correct).

"UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer tried to reassure Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi of Britain’s commitment during his visit this year, but in the absence of any funding his reassurances did not hold much sway, said two people familiar with the visit."

"Tokyo has shifted its stance to become more open to signing deals with potential customers for the fighter jet to reduce the funding requirements on the UK, with Canada a leading potential customer, according to two of the people.

Japanese officials stressed that Tokyo is reluctant to allow the entry of any new design and development partner, however, given the complexities. Japan resisted a push last year by the UK and Italy to get Saudi Arabia involved in the development. Saudi Arabia was still in talks to join in some form, according to two people familiar with the situation."
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Canada getting GCAP?

I mean, the GCAP requirements are pretty similar to what Canada needs in general.
 
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
Summary of FT article in X thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2035646016406630683
View: https://x.com/f3futarigoto/status/2035646016406630683?s=20

More detail on the article in reply to reddit post.
https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/1s0k7r2/japan_sounds_alarm_over_uk_delays_to_gcap_combat
View: https://www.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/1s0k7r2/japan_sounds_alarm_over_uk_delays_to_gcap_combat/
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It really is ironic seeing the UK become everything they tried to claim Italy or Japan would do. Stuff like saying Italy would flake on the bill or Japan would create delays in the program over their defense and export bureaucracy. Also seeing a few people on the UK side trying to act like the 2035 IOC date was just randomly sprung on them as this impossible herculean task when it has been the single most consistent demand from Japan when forming GCAP and has been their goal since 2016 from their solo i-3/F-3 program. If the UK does use the delays to try and shift scope like what is being speculated then something needs to happen like the UK losing their equal stake in the program and perhaps some share in production. Japan and Italy don't need to be footing the bill to create a bunch of jobs in the UK and build up their economy.

It really is amazing how the UK managed to get the chance at usurping the US as the primary defense R&D partner of Japan and immediately squandered it this hard. Forget stumbling before the finish line, this is stumbling before the starting line. This will probably sour things for other nations wanting to partner with Japan in the future as well as Japan was content with just going at it alone, but this was the program to show Japan that it was safe to take on these massive defense programs with partners for the first time.

Even if the UK gets the DIP through without any significant delays, this has already strained relations, but things are looking a lot worse based on what is known. I'd maybe be a bit more lenient on the UK in other circumstances, but with how smug they were in the early stages of the program only to be the cause of almost every single one of the albeit few issues that GCAP has seen so far is a bad look.
 
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
From the FT article (if the reddit post with it reposted in full is correct).

"UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer tried to reassure Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi of Britain’s commitment during his visit this year, but in the absence of any funding his reassurances did not hold much sway, said two people familiar with the visit."

"Tokyo has shifted its stance to become more open to signing deals with potential customers for the fighter jet to reduce the funding requirements on the UK, with Canada a leading potential customer, according to two of the people.

Japanese officials stressed that Tokyo is reluctant to allow the entry of any new design and development partner, however, given the complexities. Japan resisted a push last year by the UK and Italy to get Saudi Arabia involved in the development. Saudi Arabia was still in talks to join in some form, according to two people familiar with the situation."
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With the SCAF coming apart right now its looks all the more likely that Germany becomes part of the GCAP but if germany wants to be part of GCAP they would want significant workshare that would significantly delay negotiations and could delay the program by a significant amount of time. after all this is what the SCAF program is being delayed by, workshare negotiations and difference in design
 
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Kota said:
It really is ironic seeing the UK become everything they tried to claim Italy or Japan would do. Stuff like saying Italy would flake on the bill or Japan would create delays in the program over their defense and export bureaucracy. Also seeing a few people on the UK side trying to act like the 2035 IOC date was just randomly sprung on them as this impossible herculean task when it has been the single most consistent demand from Japan when forming GCAP and has been their goal since 2016 from their solo i-3/F-3 program. If the UK does use the delays to try and shift scope like what is being speculated then something needs to happen like the UK losing their equal stake in the program and perhaps some share in production. Japan and Italy don't need to be footing the bill to create a bunch of jobs in the UK and build up their economy.

It really is amazing how the UK managed to get the chance at usurping the US as the primary defense R&D partner of Japan and immediately squandered it this hard. Forget stumbling before the finish line, this is stumbling before the starting line. This will probably sour things for other nations wanting to partner with Japan in the future as well as Japan was content with just going at it alone, but this was the program to show Japan that it was safe to take on these massive defense programs with partners for the first time.

Even if the UK gets the DIP through without any significant delays, this has already strained relations, but things are looking a lot worse based on what is known. I'd maybe be a bit more lenient on the UK in other circumstances, but with how smug they were in the early stages of the program only to be the cause of almost every single one of the albeit few issues that GCAP has seen so far is a bad look.
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Can japan even truly do this without the UK ? I would love to know because i was always under the impressions that japan needed RR and BAE for GCAP because it didn't have at home capability.
 
lmaoxd said:
With the SCAF coming apart right now its looks all the more likely that Germany becomes part of the GCAP but if germany wants to be part of GCAP they would want significant workshare that would significantly delay negotiations and could delay the program by a significant amount of time. after all this is what the SCAF program is being delayed by, workshare negotiations and difference in design
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The only way Germany can join GCAP is as a buyer of product. At least not without completely reworking the GIGO agreement.



lmaoxd said:
Can japan even truly do this without the UK ? I would love to know because i was always under the impressions that japan needed RR and BAE for GCAP because it didn't have at home capability.
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Maybe? I mean, they could absolutely continue within the GIGO frameworks. The question is in if Japan needs the UK to help pay for it all.
 
lmaoxd said:
I would love to know because i was always under the impressions that japan needed RR and BAE
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They don't really need either. The biggest things that were touted by RR to be brought to the table were ACE and their 1mW generator, but now its looking like ACE is being scrapped from NGAD and most likely will be the same for GCAP with how expensive it is and IHI has their own 1mW generator. Some of the best nickel superalloys for turbines are developed in Japan and iirc RR opened a lab in Japan just for the purpose of NSA research. At the end of the day Japan has an engine with as much thrust as an F119 in an F110 formfactor and has confidence they can get 19 tons of thrust out of it in the future. Its a similar story for BAe as well.

Its a no brainer that GCAP will be a better product with the UK involved, but their involvement isn't necessary to create a final product that still delivers on the requirements. With how many countries are now interested in some kind of partnership with GCAP, the UK really needs to get their shit together to make sure there aren't significant delays. If there are, then there is an unlikely, but real chance that the UK gets booted, workshare is split 50/50 Japan and Italy, then a handful of junior partners are brought on to foot the UKs end of the bill in exchange for some tech transfer and perhaps local part production deals. Like I said, the chance of this happening is really slim, but it's just real enough that the UK shouldn't be complacent.
 
The idea that the UK would be booted from GCAP seems very far fetched. Italy doesn't have the financial head room to markedly increase it's contribution. Taking onboard a new partner after UK being pushed out as part of the core workshare & development would introduce more delay than adding that partner to the trilateral group. What niche IP does the UK bring in terms of stealth, radar (UK Leonardo - ECRS Mk II), unique lessons learned from F-35 etc.

If current phase of funding is an issue for the UK there are two main routes I believe:
1. Japan provides the funding difference to move onto the next stage, with the UK making up their contribution over an longer period (less in year funding pressure). To secure UK re-payment Japan could provide a loan to the UK for this purpose (low or zero interest), though likely a less attractive option than Japan paying upfront & UK later into dev. There is previous reporting that Japan would be willing to take on a greater share of the cost burned if it meant keeping to schedule on the timeframe goals.

2. Early down payments / buy in from customers. Saudi Arabia seems to have been discounted by Japan due to an insistance by SA on being a development partner / workshare, likely similar concerns with Germany. Japan blocks development partners to keep to schedule but is open to customers, and likely further down the line some production workshare - once core nations have their production up & jets coming off the line, likely not before.

Therefore looking for customers who aren't pushing for workshare prior to jet being fully in service - the FT article mentions Canada; SA & Ger maybe willing to join as tier 1/2 customers, we'll see.

3. Funding does appear from the UK Defence Investment Plan (DIP), at current trajectory that means a delay of another 2-3 months.

Reports so far are that GCAP development has not been negatively impacted, being able to continue dev off prior available funding (if this is 100% true who knows). The main issue being lack of funding holding up contract signing to move onto the next stage of development. An unnecessary total of 6+mths (Dec 25-May/July 26) delay in contract signing at some point could negatively impact the aimpoint of 2035 (ish).
 
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I will quote a portion of a doujinshi that was distributed at the Winter Comic Market. I purchased the digital version from an online store called Melonbooks.


I honestly do not fully understand the technical details, but would this be what is called “active stealth”?
 

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ayatsuji said:
I will quote a portion of a doujinshi that was distributed at the Winter Comic Market. I purchased the digital version from an online store called Melonbooks.


I honestly do not fully understand the technical details, but would this be what is called “active stealth”?
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Is that probably an explanation of a structure called a metasurface reflector?

I’m not an expert, so I only have secondhand information, but I believe it’s a mechanism where each individual structural element shifts the phase (timing) of electromagnetic waves, thereby controlling the direction and characteristics of the reflection.
 
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
The idea that the UK would be booted from GCAP seems very far fetched.
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I'm not saying it would happen or it would be likely, but the way I could see it happening is if there are already significant delays in the program due to the DIP not going through in this next window and the UK still tries to through around their stake/veto power to try and change the scope of the program. If there are already major delays then at that point there wouldn't be as big of an issue to bring on a new junior partner actually contributing funds and being less demanding.
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
What niche IP does the UK bring in terms of stealth, radar (UK Leonardo - ECRS Mk II), unique lessons learned from F-35 etc.
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But what exactly in terms of stealth? Japan has a much more robust ceramics industry making RAM and experience with their X-2 and F-X research. I really haven't heard much of anything about UK RAM research and from what I can tell they didn't have any hand in it with the F-35.

As for the radar, again Japan has a decade seniority on AESA research with MELCO and Toshiba simultaneously advancing development of systems for GCAP. While the ECRS Mk II is a solid platform, Japan has shown off radar element miniaturization, minimal loss DBF, flexible radar arrays, conformal radar arrays. The biggest thing that the ECRS Mk II does is really solid power output, but back in 2018 MELCOs F-X radar demonstrator claimed 1.5x the power output of the APG-81. There was an old aviationweek article I posted a while back here:
But to summarize, JAGUAR was a joint UK-Japan developed in parallel, but externally to Tempest efforts. Tempest was planning to use an ECRS Mk II with increased power output, but JAGUAR turned out to be a much better system and the original Tempest plan was scrapped.

One lesson they didn't seem to learn from the F-35 is how to be a functional and effective member in a multinational fighter jet project.

I really do want GCAP to work out and I do think it will be a better project with the UK involved, but the reality is that the UK industry and R&D is certainly replaceable if push comes to shove. For how much Tempest was touted as this massive industry effort to develop systems for a NGF, they never actually showcased any actual results of that program. It's odd when Japan of all places has put out magnitudes more information on the systems developed for F-X when they are much more adverse to publishing info on their research. At this point its really the UK's money that's irreplaceable, but now that is in question, the thing that is maintaining the UKs role in everything is that its too big of a headache to replace them.
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
There is previous reporting that Japan would be willing to take on a greater share of the cost burned if it meant keeping to schedule on the timeframe goals.
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And with that would come the UK losing its equal workshare and production, but the question is can the UK stomach that? They are already having trouble pushing funding for such a massive project through with equal workshare, so how is the UK government gonna feel about still putting massive amounts of money in to a program where they are a junior partner and have less jobs when its time to start making airframes. I just see that as a death spiral. The UK is already becoming an unreliable and uncooperative partner when treated as an equal, so if it comes down to it, I wouldn't be surprised if they become downright antagonistic if their status is downgraded.
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
the FT article mentions Canada; SA & Ger maybe willing to join as tier 1/2 customers, we'll see.
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I could at least see Germany contributing something to the program or having the facilities for production, but they will likely be more demanding. Saudi Arabia might be less demanding, but at the same time even basic asks would be major hurdles for them. Their entire aerospace defense industry is a Tornado MLU facility and a Hawk FACO line where all sub assemblies are finished and they are basically slapping wings on a fuselage. Where do they contribute as a dev partner or even build parts for the program? I see Canada as a more reliable source for cash in exchange for reasonable demands, but they will also have less money to contribute.
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
3. Funding does appear from the UK Defence Investment Plan (DIP), at current trajectory that means a delay of another 2-3 months.
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It's not just the existing delays that are the problem. It's that after this next 2-3 month delay, the UK with have a very small window to push the DIP through and if they don't get it through, then that 2-3 months turns into 6 months delay. The worrying part is that even after all the existing delays, there is no actual indication that the UK will be ready to push it through when that short window appears. There is so much talk about how important GCAP is and how funding will definitely be pushed through, but if it was as important as they claim, then we wouldn't be at this stage.
 
While I've no interest in UK bashing and hyperbole here.
It is true to say that domestic politics is causing a serious degree of introversion and the DIP may be a casualty if only in delay.

Military-wise there may also be a reevaluation on priorities.

And always the Treasury is looking to cut defence.

But I'd warn people not to take the media too seriously.
 
Kota said:
I'm not saying it would happen or it would be likely, but the way I could see it happening is if there are already significant delays in the program due to the DIP not going through in this next window and the UK still tries to through around their stake/veto power to try and change the scope of the program. If there are already major delays then at that point there wouldn't be as big of an issue to bring on a new junior partner actually contributing funds and being less demanding.
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Thanks for the detailed reply, interesting points made. Yes GCAP will benefit significantly from Japan's material science & radar expertise, and many other areas.

The stupidity of the UK delayed funding for GCAP particularly, that over the lifetime of the project & given international interest, the return to the treasury will be many X times the development investment.

Typhoon for example:
"Meanwhile BAE Systems estimates that the combat-air sector is responsible for 87% of the nation’s defence exports and finds that export sales of Typhoon had, by November 2020, ‘already returned more than double the UK Government’s £12 billion investment in the programme to the UK economy'.
^ Bold & underline my emphasis.

Add onto that the export deal for Typhoon to Türkiye.
"The UK Government has announced a c.£5.4 billion agreement with the Republic of Türkiye for the purchase of 20 Typhoon aircraft and an associated weapons and integration package, sustaining more than 20,000 highly skilled jobs across the UK supply chain."

Yes everything has to be balanced when it comes to the defence porfolio (within a narrow funding margin etc). But after Trident, Dreadnought & AUKUS, for long term projects GCAPs would be the next most important for long term funding - deserving a special carve out so that there are not funding delays as at present ("ring fenced"). Various have argued that GCAP development funding should not be solely from the Defence budget, but also contribution from the science & technology budget, give the substantial benefits to the S&T base and wider UK economy.
 
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Good news about GCAP after a long time

Canada in talks to join Japan–UK–Italy next-generation fighter development program as observer
It has been learned that Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy are coordinating to bring Canada into the framework of the “Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)”—the next-generation fighter development program being jointly developed by the three countries—as an “observer country.” This would allow the sharing of certain classified information related to the program. At this stage, Canada intends not to participate in development, but is considering purchasing the aircraft.

This was revealed by multiple Japanese government officials. The “observer country” framework is intended to allow Canada to receive information from the three countries in order to consider future participation in GCAP. It is assumed that Canada would not rule out participation in the development phase depending on conditions, in addition to purchasing and manufacturing.

The three countries—Japan, the UK, and Italy—are considering holding a defense ministers’ meeting in the UK as early as July and announcing Canada’s observer participation. However, according to Japanese government officials, whether Canada will purchase the jointly developed next-generation fighter will not be decided at the time of observer participation; “that will be decided by Canada afterward.”
www.asahi.com

日英伊による次期戦闘機の開発計画、カナダがオブザーバー参加で調整：朝日新聞

日英伊で共同開発中の次期戦闘機の開発計画「グローバル戦闘航空プログラム（GCAP）」に関して、3カ国がカナダを「オブザーバー国」として枠組みに加える方向で調整していることがわかった。計画に関する一定…
www.asahi.com www.asahi.com
 
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
finds that export sales of Typhoon had, by November 2020, ‘already returned more than double the UK Government’s £12 billion investment in the programme to the UK economy'.
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It peeves me just how economically illiterate this is. Whilst both can be measured in £ they are totally different things. Might as well compare £ and lbs. Total PR nonsense from BAES.
 
red admiral said:
It peeves me just how economically illiterate this is. Whilst both can be measured in £ they are totally different things. Might as well compare £ and lbs. Total PR nonsense from BAES.
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Fair point, given the "return to the UK economy" of the export sales is very different from returned to HMRC as tax revenue. Would you like to take a guess at approx the actual return / offset against the 12b development cost? Whatever the actual numbers there is likely still a meaningful return. I haven't seen any numbers detailing estimates of return to UK economy (or HMRC) from the development & production period prior to export sales, to add onto the export revenue.

With the current level of interest, GCAP is set to be a much greater export success than Typhoon.
 
red admiral said:
It peeves me just how economically illiterate this is. Whilst both can be measured in £ they are totally different things. Might as well compare £ and lbs. Total PR nonsense from BAES.
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The impact on the UK's balance of payments is very significant and not to be dismissed.
 
Mk_IX_Hawk said:
Fair point, given the "return to the UK economy" of the export sales is very different from returned to HMRC as tax revenue. Would you like to take a guess at approx the actual return / offset against the 12b development cost? Whatever the actual numbers there is likely still a meaningful return. I haven't seen any numbers detailing estimates of return to UK economy (or HMRC) from the development & production period prior to export sales, to add onto the export revenue.

With the current level of interest, GCAP is set to be a much greater export success than Typhoon.
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I made exactly this argument to a Labour MP last month and his eyes glazed over. Seems the Labour Party is desperate to avoid confronting any budget tradeoffs that affect the welfare budget and is extremely susceptible to arguments that drones mean piloted aircraft are obsolete (arguments which the Army and Navy are probably encouraging for all it's worth).

A big pity because I think GCAP could be a (edit) success if we get the hell on with it.

Forgive the politics, but in the UK at the moment it's not our happiest time to put it mildly.
 
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I think it's very telling that we're now seeing more and more stories of nations outside of GIGO expressing serious interest in GCAP, to me this smells like the UK govt is spending some diplomatic capital to get HMT to sign off on the DIP by showing clear export potential beyond the original 3 parties. At this point the final straw to get this over the line would probably be a big spender like the Saudi's or the Germans.

Kota said:
But what exactly in terms of stealth? Japan has a much more robust ceramics industry making RAM and experience with their X-2 and F-X research. I really haven't heard much of anything about UK RAM research and from what I can tell they didn't have any hand in it with the F-35.
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The UK is actually on of the leading western nations for RAM and Stealth outside of the US. BAE and Dstl have been researching RAM since the 80's. The UK has consistently messaged that the Typhoon has "reduced radar signature features", and we also had BAE's Replica airframe demonstrator in the 90's that fed directly into Taranis which explicitly confirmed RAM and full body LO-Shaping and finally we also have Storm Shadow and Stratus-LO which also use UK developed RAM from MBDA UK.

I think it's unfair to bring up the F-35 RAM, it's ITAR restricted and is only manufactured and applied to the airframe within the US so no one other than the Americans' had a hand in it. Moreover the UK has a ton of practical experience in actually producing a 5th Gen LO-aircraft given that the UK is responsible for around 15% for every F-35 produced given it's responsible for the entire rear fuselage for all 3 variants alongside Wing and Tail components as well as other critical subsystems.
 
Ron5 said:
The impact on the UK's balance of payments is very significant and not to be dismissed.
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I am simply pointing out that we should try to make meaningful, factual arguments rather than just come up with big numbers.

It's not just BAES. LM came up with a much bigger number of £45.6bn for F-35. Somehow.

I'm not sure any country has started a clean sheet combat aircraft programme explicitly to make money. The major factors tend to be around military-industrial capability, and international relationships/partnerships.
 
I guess it would depend what the export levy to the UK government is in the original contract - and presumably a share of the export cash is apportioned to the other partner governments (presumably with some weighting mechanism whether BAE/Airbus/Leonardo are doing the deal.
It's never been clear to me why all the partners shared the export drives amongst each other and why Eurofighter GmbH didn't centralise this.
I wonder what the Edgewing setup will be for handling this?

Exports are groovy but let's not loose sight of the fact that there is only finite production capacity. Even if there are two assembly lines (Europe & Japan), with the UK, Japan, Italy, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Canada and others all fighting for production slots it's going to get messy. And there would be the temptation to prioritise export orders for the cash, which would not be an ideal scenario.
 

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