"Destabilising" Russian Space Threat

Okay, let's calculate a bit. Let's assume that we have a one-ton warhead that release an expanding sphere of one million 1-gram metal pellets. Evenly distributed for simplification.

At one kilometer from ground zero the sphere surface would be 12.560.000 square meters. I.e. one pellet per 12,5 square meters of space. I.e. there is only a 0,3 chance of hitting one Starlink satellite.

At ten kilometers, the sphere surface would be 100 times more, i.e. 1.256.000.000 square meters. I.e. one pellet per 1250 square meters of space.

At 100 km, the numbers became so abysmal, that it is perfectly clear, that Starlink satellite have nothing to worry.
 
Anduriel said:
Russia eqivalent to starlink was launched at 588 km and 800km. So either same or somewhat higher.
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My mistake; I had thought the system was to use a smaller number of satellites and compensate by putting them at significantly higher altitudes.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Great way to get everyone on earth to ally against you.
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It is probably better to have the option and not use it than to not have it at all, though it would probably require an existential threat to use anything so indiscriminate as a nuke or shrapnel.
 
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Dilandu said:
Okay, let's calculate a bit. Let's assume that we have a one-ton warhead that release an expanding sphere of one million 1-gram metal pellets. Evenly distributed for simplification.

At one kilometer from ground zero the sphere surface would be 12.560.000 square meters. I.e. one pellet per 12,5 square meters of space. I.e. there is only a 0,3 chance of hitting one Starlink satellite.

At ten kilometers, the sphere surface would be 100 times more, i.e. 1.256.000.000 square meters. I.e. one pellet per 1250 square meters of space.

At 100 km, the numbers became so abysmal, that it is perfectly clear, that Starlink satellite have nothing to worry.
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If said pellets re-entered after their first pass then I assume that math checks out. If they largely stay in orbit, then the probability is an ever increasing number. It seems like a weapon of very limited utility, since it would take a random and perhaps lengthy amount of time to have any effect, and that effect would be random. On the other hand it takes almost no effort to develop or deploy. All that would be needed is ideally some kind of controlled deployment system that kept the material roughly in a target altitude to attack specific constellations rather than spreading shrapnel evenly in all directions at once.
 
Josh_TN said:
If said pellets re-entered after their first pass then I assume that math checks out. If they largely stay in orbit, then the probability is an ever increasing number.
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Only a small number of pellets from spherical explosion would ever be on Starlink orbit. Most would either be deccelerated and fell into atmosphere, or accelerated & thrown on higher orbits. Only a small percent would stay on Starlink orbit. And yes, they would deccelerate and fell into atmosphere really fast, because they are lightweight.
 
Josh_TN said:
If said pellets re-entered after their first pass then I assume that math checks out. If they largely stay in orbit, then the probability is an ever increasing number. It seems like a weapon of very limited utility, since it would take a random and perhaps lengthy amount of time to have any effect, and that effect would be random. On the other hand it takes almost no effort to develop or deploy. All that would be needed is ideally some kind of controlled deployment system that kept the material roughly in a target altitude to attack specific constellations rather than spreading shrapnel evenly in all directions at once.
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A 1-gram steel pellet is ~0.14 cm3, a cube ~5mm per side.

Also, roughly half the pellets will drop out of orbit on the first orbit. All the ones that expanded retrograde to the orbit, anyways. And the fragments expanding ahead of the orbit will climb upwards till any atmospheric drag catches them.
 
An attack of this type could attempt to release its payload in a particular orbital plain if the dispersal mechanism was more complex that an HE bursting charge. Almost multiple rockets might be employed.

In any case, such an event would likely just be a capstone to other world changing events; it would be an act of desperation in what was most likely already an intense conflict.
 
Josh_TN said:
An attack of this type could attempt to release its payload in a particular orbital plain if the dispersal mechanism was more complex that an HE bursting charge. Almost multiple rockets might be employed.
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True, but any deployment mechanism that would make the pellets travel slower than orbital velocity would see the pellets fall out of orbit.

The attacker's best option in this case is to put the weapon up in an opposing orbit.



Josh_TN said:
In any case, such an event would likely just be a capstone to other world changing events; it would be an act of desperation in what was most likely already an intense conflict.
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I believe that an indiscriminate orbital attack would likely unite all non-belligerents against the attacker, which would turn "The Sino-American War" into "World War 3"
 
Here's a new video by Scott Manley that I do believe is of relevance to this thread:


When spacecraft are moving around close to each other it's called 'Proximity Operations', the same laws of physics apply, but we move the reference frame to the target spacecraft which means we see what looks like unexpected motion with spacecraft following ellipses and other paths not seen on earth. But these simple motions can be modelled by equations and easily broken down into simple harmonic motion.​
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If you want to play around with my little simulator it's here:
https://illectro.github.io/prox_ops.htmlIt implements the Clohessy-Wiltshire equations for circular orbits:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clohess...https://www.youtube.com/redirect?ev...ssy%E2%80%93Wiltshire_equations&v=HcJMT1rW8Lg
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Some of these visualizations were made using Universe Sandbox:
https://store.steampowered.com/app/23...https://www.youtube.com/redirect?ev...om/app/230290/Universe_Sandbox/&v=HcJMT1rW8Lg
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Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:54 US-China Adversarial Satellite Maneuvers
3:04 ISS Proximity
4:05 Sponsored Spot
6:23 Back In Orbit
8:44 Eccentric Orbits
11:21 My Little Game
15:41 The 3rd Dimension
17:11 Fixed Geometry Constellations
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Josh_TN said:
Would not an on orbit nuclear detonation trash a lot of LEO satellites, friendly as well? I’m thinking about a modern Starfish Prime.
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Scott Kenny said:
Yes.

But how much do the Russians care anymore?
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I thing their bigger chinese friend will slap them on the wrist if they really go on with this initiative beyond declarations level. The chinese would lose as much as the western powers or even more.
 
The FH heavy launched X-37 is the closest thing there will ever be to a space F-4 Phantom II, and it is still in a straight-jacket of sorts.

Most things in orbit? Well, imagine two geriatrics in wheelchairs at the home trying to get at the hot nurse.

There's your space dogfight... speaking of which... honey? Can I have anything for pain?
 
publiusr said:
The FH heavy launched X-37 is the closest thing there will ever be to a space F-4 Phantom II, and it is still in a straight-jacket of sorts.

Most things in orbit? Well, imagine two geriatrics in wheelchairs at the home trying to get at the hot nurse.

There's your space dogfight... speaking of which... honey? Can I have anything for pain?
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Just because X-37 has a mild resemblance to a fighter aircraft does not mean it has any special interception capabilities. In fact about the only advantage it might conceivably have is an alleged ability to alter its orbit aerodynamicly using a low perigee point in its orbit.

Satellites are not going to dogfight; the environment is completely different. They will however likely attempt to to approach each other and avoid each other in situations where they are aware they are being approached.
 
X-37 had a lot of energy with FH and that upper stage....the wings had nothing to do with that of course.
 

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