Interceptors for Ireland

It was a sideways swipe at the depth of the eu 'onion' and the fondness of the system to have figureheads with a power that is diluted by inefficiency.

eu presidency? What the actual, overheads on top of overheads. No wonder defence is so screwed up and wasteful.

Jobs for the boys and girls rather than efficient governance.
 
Foo Fighter said:
figureheads with a power that is diluted by inefficiency.
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There is a marked reluctance in EU member states to give more authority to Euro-parliament, especially among the political factions whose democratical bona fides are weak. With the veto of a single member state being enough to stop any proposed reforms, progress is glacial.
 
If you take into account that...
- dozens of nation states are involved in the EU
- some of them having a history of being a nation state spanning over half a millenium or more, with millennia spanning history preceding
- no conquest being involved in their coming together in the EU - not yet, anyway
- animosities that span millenia need overcoming
... the European Union is an extremely ambitious ongoing project.

I do not think I will be around to take in history's verdict on it. If there will be a verdict, I do not know whether it would please me. The fact that it is being attempted at all makes me hope Europe is heading for peace. Yet I fear it may not find it in the foreseeable future.
 
If Ireland were to join up with Scotland, Wales, and Canada - what would the viable military budget be?
 
Avimimus said:
If Ireland were to join up with Scotland, Wales, and Canada - what would the viable military budget be?
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That's a bit of a random collection of countries, I suppose it would depend on what for of agreement came about in terms of the break up of the UK as to what state the economies of Scotland and Wales would be?
 
Avimimus said:
If Ireland were to join up with Scotland, Wales, and Canada - what would the viable military budget be?
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Are you trying to go for the usual weird Celtic brotherhood deal but don't want to add Brittany to the mix?

It's too complex a thing to answer without derailing the thread, but it's pretty safe to estimate that in real terms it would be larger than the current Canadian defence budget but probably a similar gdp percentage.
 
LightningFan1959 said:
Are you trying to go for the usual weird Celtic brotherhood deal but don't want to add Brittany to the mix?

It's too complex a thing to answer without derailing the thread, but it's pretty safe to estimate that in real terms it would be larger than the current Canadian defence budget but probably a similar gdp percentage.
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How does Canada get added in as "Celtic Brotherhood"? I mean I get the others and as you say Brittany, but Canada? Maybe Newfoundland?
 
I cannot see it full. The budget would hardly be bigger than that of Canada in real terms and the bickering would be monumental, especially the last part.

What sort of event would enable Scotland and Wales to join a defence project with other nations anyway?
 
Titus K said:
Britanny is not a country, it would be like adding Cornwall.
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I hadn't actually noticed that Cornwall wasn't in this scenario, but it too should be (and perhaps Brittany as well, since any scenario that sees enough of a collapse for Wales to become independent and for them and all these other countires to merge with Canada of all places probably isn't one where a unified French state exists), since it seems to be your bog standard 'Celtic Brotherhood' plus Canada.
 
LightningFan1959 said:
... it seems to be your bog standard 'Celtic Brotherhood' plus Canada.
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How on earth did Canada get dragged into this?

Ireland is not a member of NATO and Dublin has never ratified CETA. Other than both countries being officially bilingual, what do they have in common?

And have a glance at trade 'relations'. In 2024, Canadian exports to Ireland amounted to CAD 891M (mostly in cereal grains). So, pocket-change by global standards. Am I missing something here?
 
Apophenia said:
How on earth did Canada get dragged into this?

Ireland is not a member of NATO and Dublin has never ratified CETA. Other than both countries being officially bilingual, what do they have in common?

And have a glance at trade 'relations'. In 2024, Canadian exports to Ireland amounted to CAD 891M (mostly in cereal grains). So, pocket-change by global standards. Am I missing something here?
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If I had to guess both something of a desire, or at least positively thought of what if, and putting together the low hanging fruits of western defence procurement/defence spending (plus Scotland and Wales for some reason).
 
Foo Fighter said:
About as likely as Greenland making a successful takeover of the USA. It would remove trumpster from the equation though.
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Agreed that it's highly unlikely. But I could see Scotland declaring independence fairly soon, and that would likely also remove Northern Ireland from the Union (to reunify Ireland). Not sure if Wales would also bail.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Agreed that it's highly unlikely. But I could see Scotland declaring independence fairly soon, and that would likely also remove Northern Ireland from the Union (to reunify Ireland). Not sure if Wales would also bail.
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Scotland can't declare Independence, and London isn't likely to offer another vote anytime soon, NI technically could leave the UK, but that requires London to allow a vote on it as well, and the line from the major parties have hardened a lot since the GFA on the possibility.

On the other hand, you want the Republic to spend more on defence... That's pretty much the quickest way to get 2%+.
 
sparky42 said:
Scotland can't declare Independence, and London isn't likely to offer another vote anytime soon, NI technically could leave the UK, but that requires London to allow a vote on it as well, and the line from the major parties have hardened a lot since the GFA on the possibility.

On the other hand, you want the Republic to spend more on defence... That's pretty much the quickest way to get 2%+.
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The longer the denial of vote lasts, the stronger the push for independence gets.

See also what happened in Spain.
 
Scott Kenny said:
The longer the denial of vote lasts, the stronger the push for independence gets.

See also what happened in Spain.
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Scotland had a referendum on Independence in 2014. It failed by about 10 percent. Another one in the near future is not likely to be all that different (despite the ongoing tensions).

Maybe about once every 30 years or so (at most).
 
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A big problem with Scottish status is that while they do not rate their attachment to national(UK) government, the highlands and islands have the same problem with the Scottish system. Break Scotland from the UK and you will see a break of the Highlands and Islands from Scotland.

They might even rejoin the UK.

Also, demanding they keep the bank of England as regulator will never work, they would need their own currency.

Does anyone seriously think the UK bases would remain? Keeping their nhs as part of the UK nhs is also a stated aim of the snp. Ha bloody ha.

Selling water to the 'bloody English" at inflated prices? Ha, ha.....

Really. The social programs in Scotland are only paid for because they get a greater contribution from UK coffers and an independent Scotland would be bankrupt fast.

BTW, there is a reason Sean Connery did not live in Scotland, taxation. An independent Scotland would be denuded of the wealthy too, off to shores with better understanding of how to run a budget.

OH, btw, Scotland does not charge university students fee's in the same way everyone else does. Independent Scotland would have to.

Anyone in Scotland thinking about the subject properly would run away from the snp fast as they could.

Leadership of the snp. How many of the last two leaders got thrown out for financial impropriety? Yep, BOTH.

I would not trust them to run a school tuck shop.

Thinking something means going through it properly rather than by emotion, I know but frankly the whining from north of the border can be bloody annoying.

Just WHO bought the ships that made Scotland?
 
Apophenia said:
How on earth did Canada get dragged into this?

Ireland is not a member of NATO and Dublin has never ratified CETA. Other than both countries being officially bilingual, what do they have in common?

And have a glance at trade 'relations'. In 2024, Canadian exports to Ireland amounted to CAD 891M (mostly in cereal grains). So, pocket-change by global standards. Am I missing something here?
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I don't want to get too deep into geopolitics, but I should explain:

1) There is a global realignment happening. Canada is rapidly trying to build stronger trade and defense ties with a wider variety of countries.

2) There has been some serious talk of Canada entering into a deeper relationship with the EU or rebuilding connections with England (CANZUK proposal).

3) Post-Brexit the U.K. is no longer able to facilitate closer Canadian ties to the EU. However Ireland and France could do this. Ireland being smaller and a former colony itself would probably allow for a partnership on more equal terms with Canada (than France), and there is more cultural connection between Ireland and Canada than an alliance with Scandinavia would provide (although that could also be an option). All in all, Ireland is well positioned.

4) Some of the polling data showing divergences in voting trends within the U.K. open up the possibility that both Scotland and Wales could secede. If this were to happen they would be relatively small countries that would benefit from pooling resources, and it would seem to make sense to share some defense expenditures with Ireland (or possibly Scandinavia or other EU countries with similar requirements).

So none of this is completely implausible, even if it is all speculative and perhaps unlikely... people are looking at these possibilities right now at the policy level.

I was just curious if there would be overlap in requirements and what total budgets might look like!
 
It is impossible for Scotland or Wales to secede. That would be a decision for the UK government alone.

There is no legal way for it to happen. Poking folk with a sharp stick for what?
 
Foo Fighter said:
It is impossible for Scotland or Wales to secede. That would be a decision for the UK government alone.

There is no legal way for it to happen. Poking folk with a sharp stick for what?
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For the record, if Canada had taken that attitude - we'd have lost Quebec.
 
I was just curious if there would be overlap in requirements and what total budgets might look like!

In Billions USD (GDP):
Ireland: $587.2
Ireland and Scotland: $807.2
Ireland and Canada: $2827.2
Ireland/Scotland/Canada: $3047.2
Ireland/Canada/Scotland/Wales/North of England: $3342.6

So, an agreement with Scotland does lead to 37% increase in ability to by Interceptors (assuming Scotland wants to spend the same amount per capita). Some type of Alliance with Canada would produce the largest results though! It would likely make it possible to sustain a 5th generation design (especially if some logistics or training was shared) or a larger number of Gripens.

I've answered my own question - now can we get back on topic?
 
FighterJock said:
It would be good to see Ireland getting a ship with the capabilities of the FREMM class.
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As I've posted in the Irish Navy thread (and also in the Type 31 thread), we know that the Navy seems to have pivoted to asking for something else for the Flagship, but the DOD so far have been against it, one of the major issues of course is just the scale of specialist areas that need to be filled for such a ship compared to what the NS has currently.
 
That is a pity sparky42, but I see your point about the scale of the specialist areas for the FREMM class that Ireland just don't have the ability to train at present, if they do go down that route in the future then I could see them sending their sailors to France for training and then coming back to train new recruits back in Ireland.
 
I'm sorry, since i searched for sparky42's quote, i hadn't noticed this wasn't the irish naval service thread ... apologies for the OT

Goign back to interceptors, Austria just bought 12 M346 for 1.5 Billion €, so that's not a cheap option either ...
https://theaviationist.com/2025/12/01/austria-finalizes-m-346fa-acquisition/
The MoD says the unit price of the aircraft is €80 million, while the entire package, including armament, simulator, training, and maintenance, costs around €1.5 billion. Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner explained the M-346 will be used both as an operational aircraft and as a training aircraft.
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FighterJock said:
That is a pity sparky42, but I see your point about the scale of the specialist areas for the FREMM class that Ireland just don't have the ability to train at present, if they do go down that route in the future then I could see them sending their sailors to France for training and then coming back to train new recruits back in Ireland.
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That’s the most likely outcome and likely to be happening soon as we have a CAPTAS 1 sonar arriving next year for the NS, so someone (and I’m guessing it will be French given they are so far the only ones we’ve admitted to talking to about purchases) will be involved in training.
 
Titus K said:
I'm sorry, since i searched for sparky42's quote, i hadn't noticed this wasn't the irish naval service thread ... apologies for the OT

Goign back to interceptors, Austria just bought 12 M346 for 1.5 Billion €, so that's not a cheap option either ...
https://theaviationist.com/2025/12/01/austria-finalizes-m-346fa-acquisition/
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There is no cheap option, really for any of the gaps we have to fill as unlike others we are creating capabilities and the support and training systems needed. The 346 has been offered as part of the Leonardo submissions to the Commission, whether it meets the “hang around off the West Coast with Bears” is a question though.
 
So the visit by Zelenskyy pointed out that no, a no fly zone doesn't work if you don't actually have anything to enforce said no fly zone, and spraying and praying .50 cal or 20mm from a naval ship in the middle of the night isn't a great plan.

In other news, the Revised NDP is finally through cabinet and being announced tomorrow, briefing suggest that the Radar system is now circa €500 million, and a first buy of a CUAS system for Baldonnel for €20 million, along with the medium helicopter buy and yes the PC9 replacement is happening on schedule.

No clue if there is actually going to be contracts announced or not tomorrow, the radar buy has been rumoured since the summer so should be ready to go.
 
So confirming the long running rumour, the Government is talking to the French for a G2G purchase of the entire Radar program (land, sea and GBAD/CUAS (maybe?)). Price has jumped around a bit, with the added issue of the reporting tends to jump between the land based Primary systems, but then also remember that the other areas are included (the sonar buy for example seems lumped in as well), with sums from €300-€500 million being talked about.
https://www.thejournal.ie/radar-systems-france-ireland-primary-radar-deal-6905531-Dec2025/
 
So apart from the rumour I posted in the Irish navy thread, the article also had a few bits about how the AC will be handling no fly zones during the Presidency, from the "soft kill" system that's intended for Baldonnel (and the other ones we're likely to be asking others to send over), to the helicopters practicing door gunner skills (one way to affect Dublin property prices I suppose), to 2 of the PC9s "are being fitted with weapons systems specifically designed for C-UAS."? Guided 70mm? There was talk about the possibility years ago but it never went anywhere?
 
sparky42 said:
So apart from the rumour I posted in the Irish navy thread, the article also had a few bits about how the AC will be handling no fly zones during the Presidency, [...] to the helicopters practicing door gunner skills (one way to affect Dublin property prices I suppose),
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If you're doing that, better to get a 20mm door gun to have self-destruct tracers loaded. Small fragments beats the heck out of 7.62 or 12.7mm raining out of the sky!

I wonder if there are many of the old Colt M39s still running around? They'd need some modification for use as a door gun, though.



sparky42 said:
to 2 of the PC9s "are being fitted with weapons systems specifically designed for C-UAS."? Guided 70mm?
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That would be my guess. APKWS is cheap and easy to install. Hang a Sniper pod on one pylon, and four 7x70mm rocket pods on the others. Add a 7.62mm gun pod with full tracers to shout "hey, stupid" at people, since APKWS doesn't do warning shots.
 

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