Operation Midnight Hammer

[EmoBirb]

The very notion is ridiculous.

So was the notion of attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

 

[EmoBirb]

Something interesting to think about, weren't there rumors of two Type 815A ELINT ships of the PLAN being active in the Persian Gulf and general area? If so, they will probably gathered some valuable intelligence with regards to how US forces conduct such operations.

 

[Sferrin]

So was the notion of attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

That was never ridiculous. It's been on the table for years. Why anybody would think it wasn't serious, considering what Israel did to Iraq's reactor in '81, makes no sense. Add to that the US "just happened" to have the perfect weapon for the job.

 

[Foo Fighter]

With the US forces going 'dark'? I doubt it.

 

[Forest Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936755457193853164

View: https://x.com/osc_london/status/1936755457193853164

 

[Forest Green]

B-2 Strikes On Iran: What We Know About Operation Midnight Hammer​

B-2 Strikes On Iran: What We Know About Operation Midnight Hammer (Updated)

125 aircraft, including B-2s with huge bunker busters, and a submarine firing Tomahawk cruise missiles, took part in the historic mission.

www.twz.com

Operation Midnight Hammer: How the US conducted surprise strikes on Iran - Breaking Defense

The operation included more than 125 US aircraft, "dozens" of aerial refueling tankers, a guided missile submarine and approximately 75 precision guided weapons.

breakingdefense.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936755457193853164

View: https://x.com/osc_london/status/1936755457193853164

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936826451749380184

View: https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1936826451749380184

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936730126353658282

View: https://x.com/detresfa_/status/1936730126353658282

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936809277228040240

View: https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1936809277228040240

On size:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936850989832606186

View: https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1936850989832606186

 

[Trident]

I don't think the absence of elevated off-site radiation levels is going to tell us anything on whether the attacks (which clearly hit as intended) actually caused the kind of damage they were supposed to inflict. Firstly, the Iranians claim (and while @martinbayer mentions a valid caveat, there's also no particular reason at face value to think it is untrue) to have removed the uranium before the strike. Secondly, uranium is not that highlly radioactive - it has a long half-life and is an alpha-emitter, so once in a blue moon it chucks out a big particle that doesn't make it very far from the source. Not easy to detect unless you are in the immediate vicinity. Especially since, thirdly, neither metallic uranium nor gaseous UF6 centrifuge feedstock are very mobile (i.e. easily dispersed a long way from the site of release by water or air, like the fission products in a nuclear reactor such as Chernobyl or Fukushima are).

Simply put, there might not have been a lot of radioactive material at Fordow to begin with, whatever was present would not have been of a strongly radioactive nature and, even if released, would not have traveled very far, making it extremely difficult to detect. The jury remains out on whether this went as planned, and we may not know for a long time. Given the extremely erratic and self-serving rhetoric out of this White House, I don't think they'd ever officially admit to a failure even if and once considerable evidence had accumulated, after all.

 

[Josh_TN]

Is it assumed that each of the half dozen impatient points represents a GBU-57 double tab or were some of the weapons used to seal the entrances?

 

[Trident]

I wonder if the colour (and not necessarily in the visible band, either) of the ejecta from the impact holes would tell an experienced analyst anything? I mean, imagine throwing marbles at a Sheperd's Pie - you'd know if you went through the crust into the gravy!

 

[EmoBirb]

Do you honestly believe the US didn't know they were there?

Where did I say that? Lmao, you need to stop making these snarky assumptions time and time again. Of course they knew the PLAN was in the region, that's a given considering even the OSINT community has picked up on that rumor.

Doesn't change the fact that these vessels were most likely happily gathering data. The US just had other priorities and thus considered it not to be of concern for the operations.

 

[Justo Miranda]

In 1949 it took only five days for the Americans to detect radiologic debris from the first Soviet atomic bomb.

On D-Day, a battalion of Rangers risked their lives trying to destroy some German cannons that according to the secret services were located at Pointe du Hoc and after climbing the cliff under German machine gun fire... there were no cannons there.

 

[books]

Is it assumed that each of the half dozen impatient points represents a GBU-57 double tab or were some of the weapons used to seal the entrances?

To me, the center holes sometimes look bigger than the ones to either side.

So, of the total of 12 MOPs that hit Fordow, and assuming only six target coordinates (six holes) at that site, I find myself wondering if it might have been 1-4-1 instead of 2-2-2 at each trio of coordinates.

More specifically, I’m wondering if the play is to hit the center a number of times to burrow down as far as possible, then subsequently hit two adjacent points once each to further “bury” anything at the bottom of the shaft, while hoping for crushing damage too.

Complete speculation though. And as I said, based on an assumption of just six coordinate points at Fordow, which I may be hasty in assuming.

 

[books]

Another question would be the angles at which the bombs came in. Could be that some went straight down while others cut slightly diagonal paths toward a convergence point or convergence area, which I’d assume to be the main cascade hall shown above.

 

[Kat Tsun]

I can't imagine a scenario where the US and China are trying to take out each other's aircraft production lines with conventional weapons. The very notion is ridiculous.

Well, yes quite plainly.

You'd obviously strike electrical production and distribution. That was the biggest lesson of WW2.

 

[books]

Perhaps some of the last bomb drops aimed not to dig or detonate at the level of the facility, but to collapse material above into the new tunnels that the MOPs had created.

That would potentially help in containing any radioactive material, as well as impede any possible future excavation of the site.

 

[NMaude]

In 1949 it took only five days for the Americans to detect radiologic debris from the first Soviet atomic bomb.

Those were fission-products from plutonium and uranium fission, the U-235 present at the site isn't in a nuclear-reactor so it's only mildly radioactive as another poster upthread pointed out.

 

[Ainen]

I can't imagine a scenario where the US and China are trying to take out each other's aircraft production lines with conventional weapons. The very notion is ridiculous.

I think it's a potential use case.

As 1980s shown, when countries match each other in calculated firepower, incentive to send (and receive) nukes decreases.

Otherwise, it's a bit hard to imagine need for significant stand off from B-2/21
Targets either don't need such stand off(which excludes any hunter killer profile), or don't require stealthy launcher to get to the launch point.

 

[Dilandu]

More specifically, I’m wondering if the play is to hit the center a number of times to burrow down as far as possible, then subsequently hit two adjacent points once each to further “bury” anything at the bottom of the shaft, while hoping for crushing damage too.

Hm, wouldn't it be more reasonable to plant two bombs at sides - to fracture and shatter the rock between them - and then drop the rest at the center, hitting the already-weakened material?

 

[Seragina]

Is it assumed that each of the half dozen impatient points represents a GBU-57 double tab or were some of the weapons used to seal the entrances?

I assume the goal was to have 6 enter each hole at two locations to go as deep as possible and cause a concentrated rebound effect midway (textbook tactic). But apparently, only those dropped from each plane would converge into the same hole. Either that or due to same timing they had to be besides each other to avoid hitting each other.

 

[books]

Hm, wouldn't it be more reasonable to plant two bombs at sides - to fracture and shatter the rock between them - and then drop the rest at the center, hitting the already-weakened material?

Maybe so. Or, could have been one to loosen up, then four in the middle, and finally one on the other side to close. If in fact it wasn’t 2-2-2, which it might very well have been!

 

[mkellytx]

I don't think the absence of elevated off-site radiation levels is going to tell us anything on whether the attacks (which clearly hit as intended) actually caused the kind of damage they were supposed to inflict. Firstly, the Iranians claim (and while @martinbayer mentions a valid caveat, there's also no particular reason at face value to think it is untrue) to have removed the uranium before the strike. Secondly, uranium is not that highlly radioactive - it has a long half-life and is an alpha-emitter, so once in a blue moon it chucks out a big particle that doesn't make it very far from the source. Not easy to detect unless you are in the immediate vicinity. Especially since, thirdly, neither metallic uranium nor gaseous UF6 centrifuge feedstock are very mobile (i.e. easily dispersed a long way from the site of release by water or air, like the fission products in a nuclear reactor such as Chernobyl or Fukushima are).

Simply put, there might not have been a lot of radioactive material at Fordow to begin with, whatever was present would not have been of a strongly radioactive nature and, even if released, would not have traveled very far, making it extremely difficult to detect. The jury remains out on whether this went as planned, and we may not know for a long time. Given the extremely erratic and self-serving rhetoric out of this White House, I don't think they'd ever officially admit to a failure even if and once considerable evidence had accumulated, after all.

Beat me to the reply, well explained. The fact that UF6 is toxic is a far greater HSE risk than radiation

 

[NMaude]

The fact that UF6 is toxic is a far greater HSE risk than radiation

It's both a heavy-metal compound AND a fluoride compound so a toxic double-whammy.

 

[mkellytx]

It's both a heavy-metal compound AND a fluoride compound so a toxic double-whammy.

Exactly, really nasty stuff, maybe the alpha particle ingested gives the worm that eats your corpse cancer.

 

[Josh_TN]

Seems a little weird the one above ground building was not targeted with something, if not by the U.S. than by the Israelis before.

 

[Hydroman]

B-2s bombing at high altitude 40kft, looks like F-22 and F-35s sweeping and probably "other" assets involved (maybe "RQ-180"). B-2s in Balkans went in alone at high altitude, 40kft-plus by themselves, painted by air defense radars and no one saw them (got this from one the pilots I used to work with at the CTF in the flight test days). The B-2 works and works well.

 

[Hydroman]

There are almost certainly Chinese aircraft spotters around Whitman. I would be astonished if Iran didn't know they were coming, but what could they do about it? Interesting that a dozen F-22s recently flew to the UK. Anybody know where they ended up? Maybe they were around just in case.

U.S. F-22 Raptors Are Deploying To The Middle East

The first 8 of 12 U.S. Air Force F-22s have departed the UK and are currently en route to the region as the White House considers whether to join Israel’s

theaviationist.com

Got to identify and round up any Chinese spotters then.

 

[Seragina]

Seems a C little weird the one above ground building was not targeted with something, if not by the U.S. than by the Israelis before.

May you need to leave witnesses canaries alive to test for radiation when they turn up at a hospital.

 

[mkellytx]

Got to identify and round up any Chinese spotters then.

Part of the brilliance of this Op, was that the planners knew the OSIT community and spotters would report things, so they deceived them by giving them what they expected. They wanted the spotters, and the ones that went west were to deter China. When Iraq 2 went down, my Bomb Wing deployed to Anderson to make sure NK and China behaved.

 

[southwestforests]

There are almost certainly Chinese aircraft spotters around Whitman.

Since I live not overly far from there, might I be a pest and ask the spelling be corrected from Whitman to Whiteman.

Base is not named for Walt Whitman the poet, but rather, 2nd Lieutenant George Whiteman,

https://www.whiteman.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/323965/2nd-lt-george-a-whiteman/

Another honor was bestowed on Lieutenant Whiteman 14 years after his death. Gen. Nathan F. Twining, Air Force Chief of Staff, informed Mrs. Whiteman on Aug. 24, 1955, that the recently reopened Sedalia Air Force Base would be renamed Whiteman Air Force Base in tribute to her son. The dedication and renaming ceremony took place on Dec. 3, 1955.

 

[Sferrin]

Since I live not overly far from there, might I be a pest and ask the spelling be corrected from Whitman to Whiteman.

Base is not named for Walt Whitman the poet, but rather, 2nd Lieutenant George Whiteman,

https://www.whiteman.af.mil/About/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/323965/2nd-lt-george-a-whiteman/

You know, I when I typed it I thought it looked funny (also remembered it as "Whiteman") but when I did a quick Google the first response that popped out also misspelled it the same way so I went with it.

 

[publiusr]

Iran claims to have already removed the fissile material prior to the strikes

Anonymity is the best defense.

Iranians saw what was done to Iraq—dug deeper…then likely said to themselves “we might as well paint a target for five o clock Charlie.

But having a base that many ice cream and food trucks serviced over the years is a big footprint—an de facto equivalent of the MX shell game defense. Use for awhile—bug out…use for awhile, repeat.

Chess is a Persian creation after all.

Thus what you have is a tralfamadorian defense where any fissile material is hiding not just in a secure site—but along the timeline/path of all vehicles that ever entered or left Fordow (how do you pronounce that? Sounds like something in Dearborn.)

If Israel really is a one nuke nation, they might have enough for one gun style.
I don’t think it would be on anything that flies.

Any lithium battery recycling facilities in Tel Aviv? They might try to replicate a runaway…maybe a cement truck for a dewar?

 

[Sferrin]

If Israel really is a one nuke nation, they might have enough for one gun style.

One?

Jericho (missile) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[publiusr]

One?

Jericho (missile) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I mean Iran might have just one—we all know about the Samson option if Tel Aviv is hit. Vela points to them and/or South Africa.

If I were an Iranian operative, I would prefer to try to smuggle it in—out of sight of air defenses.

A spy might place a gun-style inside a cement truck filled with lithium and hope for the best. Mike meets Salvage One. If it doesn’t work you still have Hiroshima…if it does work, Tel Aviv goes the way of an Atoll.

There is no hurry. Were I an Iranian…I’d wait for things to quiet down…then finish operation “Sarnath.”

 

[EmoBirb]

Anonymity is the best defense.

Iranians saw what was done to Iraq—dug deeper…then likely said to themselves “we might as well paint a target for five o clock Charlie.

I do believe that Iran was probably prepared for such an eventuality. If not in a steady alarm fashion, then at the very least since hostilities started with Israel (and where Israel goes to war, the US often follows). So they most likely anticipated an attack at the very least since the first Israeli strikes.

Now what measures they have taken, when they were taken and how effective they were...well...we might never know or only find out over a long period of time.

On the topic of spotters and photographers in the US seeing the B-2s depart and land, didn't the US learn anything? In the age of readily available drones, albeit short range ones, each of these people could be a potential threat. Although I had to admit, an Iranian or even Chinese spin-off of the Ukrainian operation would be quite ironic. Either way, people shouldn't be able to be anywhere close the airfields where such strategic assets are stationed. Seems like an unnecessary gamble. Especially in a politically divided united states.

 

[southwestforests]

Either way, people shouldn't be able to be anywhere close the airfields where such strategic assets are stationed.

What is the specific measurement value of "anywyere close"?
What is your plan to relocate the cities of Knob Knoster and Warrensburg?
What is your plan to relocate multiple square miles of farmland?

 

[DWG]

On the topic of spotters and photographers in the US seeing the B-2s depart and land, didn't the US learn anything? In the age of readily available drones, albeit short range ones, each of these people could be a potential threat. Although I had to admit, an Iranian or even Chinese spin-off of the Ukrainian operation would be quite ironic. Either way, people shouldn't be able to be anywhere close the airfields where such strategic assets are stationed. Seems like an unnecessary gamble. Especially in a politically divided united states.

If you don't want people around, an AFB with a town at the end of the runway was probably a poor choice for basing.

 

[starviking]

That would remove only a portion of the radiation, but all technological equipment must be heavily contaminated, and some radiation should have escaped after its destruction, even partial.

At least 4 possibilities for a non-detection of radiation:

1) Radioisotopes not dispersed widely enough to be picked up on regional sensors.

2) Area sensors disabled by regime.

3) Uranium storage area not hit: but all access to it collapsed.

4) Uranium removed before strike.

 

[EmoBirb]

What is the specific measurement value of "anywyere close"?
What is your plan to relocate the cities of Knob Knoster and Warrensburg?
What is your plan to relocate multiple square miles of farmland?

View attachment 775630

I don't need a plan, it's not my problem after all.

But having $2B strategic stealth bombers coming in and out with several dozens of people spotting them in close proximity seems to be exceptionally careless in the light of the utmost recent events which validated a threat previously only theorized.

Luckily none of the adversaries of the US have anything to do with drones, right? (looks at China, Iran, Russia and Korea)

And luckily Americans are the utmost patriots and would never sabotage themselves or lash out in politically motivated violence (looks at attempted Trump assassination and SSN-755)

Ohhh...

So yeah, maybe the US should reconsider where they will station their strategic assets in the future. There are most likely people being paid that are concerned with this very question.

 

[publiusr]

people shouldn't be able to be anywhere close the airfields where such strategic assets are stationed. Seems like an unnecessary gamble.

Birmingham, Alabama used to be bad.
There was a road where—just past a fence—the radar wasn’t more than 40 or so feet out and up. We are known for tanker aircraft. They don’t fly…bad news.

It has been relocated.

A family friend got snookered into a deal where—if he fixed up the owner’s other properties, he’d get a discount.

The house wasn’t far from where a cargo jet crashed.

The house he had was atop a small rise.
Had I been on its roof—I could have thrown a rock into the wheel well of some planes passing overhead.

I half expected to see tire marks on his shingles.

It is getting easy to track aircraft and spy

Look To The Sky With This Simple Plane Tracker

Do you ever get tired of stressing your neck looking for planes in the sky? Worry not! Here is a neat and cheap Arduino/Ras Pi project to keep your neck sore free! [BANK ANGLE] presents a wonderful…

hackaday.com

Weighing An Airplane As It Flies Overhead

Recently, [AlphaPhoenix] weighed an airplane. Normally, that wouldn’t be much of an accomplishment. Except in this case, the airplane happened to be in flight at the time. In fact we’re…

hackaday.com

Photogrammetry Takes To The Skies

Maybe your goal is to preserve the heyday of rail travel with a precise scale replica of a particular railroad station. Maybe you’re making a hyper-local edition of Monopoly in which the hous…

hackaday.com

As for the B-2…maybe do a Nathanial Bedford Forrest and have it go round in circles—land and take off. It’s been done

 

[quellish]

In all fairness, judging prewar Iranian iads now is not unlike laughing on US battleships role in saving Philippines in 1942.

If I get time in the next week I intend to do a pre and post analysis that looks at the changes to those air defenses over the last few weeks. I have access to commercial IMINIT and MASINT that is… insightful.