Israeli missile defence in operation (technical discussion only)

yahya said:
Why such a drone was missed by the AD/BMD network?

https://t.me/sepahcybery/119028
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No AA/AD is 100% proof. Terrain masking is also a thing.
This is a small drone, flying at low alt, and, like a cruise missile, can have it's own flightpath that is not straight line. Thus it's much harder to spot than a ballistic missile that flies at predictable path.
 
jeffb said:
That would make them spectacularly bad decoys.
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Well, there are ways around it - for example, using the X-shaped metal rods (high radar reflection, low aerodynamic drag) or rocket-boosted decoys, but they would cut into missile throw weight. Also, detaching the decoys would likely make missile less stable on trajectory. Iranian missiles are conventionally-armed, so any additional deviation matters for their accuracy.
 
jeffb said:
That would make them spectacularly bad decoys.
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Making an effective decoy for an RBA is not easy. It needs to have the same ballistic coefficient so it loses speed in air at the same speed, it needs to have the same (or greater) radar cross section, and it needs to have the same thermal properties.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Making an effective decoy for an RBA is not easy. It needs to have the same ballistic coefficient so it loses speed in air at the same speed, it needs to have the same (or greater) radar cross section, and it needs to have the same thermal properties.
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And its likely quite costly to implement. For the conventionally-armed missiles such measures would quickly reach the point, where "just launching more missiles" would be more efficient.
 
 
indicisivedivide said:
How deep is the crater? Looks like 4-5 meters deep.
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That depth corresponds approximately to a free fall 500 kg standard bomb, but if the crater has been caused by a missile with high kinetic energy, the results of the impact are quite mediocre. Possibly the warhead used is quite small or was larger did not explode.
 

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Big_Zukini said:
I see it can launch 8 and have some spare.
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My bad, that's David's Sling. It's TELs are set up to carry 6-packs of the stunner missiles.
The Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) is a mobile launcher unit mounted on a heavy-duty truck chassis. It carries multiple missile canisters, typically housing 6 to 12 Stunner interceptor missiles, which are launched vertically from their individual canisters.
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But we were talking about Arrow which does deploy in 6 cannister TELs.
1750085668158.jpeg 1750085896012.jpeg

1750086005652.jpeg
 
jeffb said:
My bad, that's David's Sling. It's TELs are set up to carry 6-packs of the stunner missiles.
But we were talking about Arrow which does deploy in 6 cannister TELs.
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I think you went a little off track there. OP said it's THAAD because it's 8 missiles. I simply noted that THAAD isn't the only one capable of firing 8, and that David's Sling can do it too.
But then I also said that it IS a THAAD, because all Israeli ABM launchers are vertical, whereas the video shows an angled launch which matches THAAD.

On second thought it could also be a Patriot. I don't know if these were sent though.
 
Yes, you're right. The dangers of late night posting I'm afraid. The video does indeed appear to show 7 interceptors being launched, all at an angle consistent with the THAAD launcher.

Not sure about Israeli Patriots. The last I'd heard was that Israel had warehoused them after Iran's response back in October 2024, then donated them to Ukraine.

1750087342806.png
 
It seems unlikely THAAD missed 7 times on the same shot (or that it would even try to shoot the same missile 7 times).
 
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Sferrin said:
Those weren't THAAD. Way too late in the game for THAAD. Not even obvious that those missiles are aimed at the one that came in (there were other visible targets going a different direction). Maybe PAC-2s.
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I just noticed that while a pack of THAAD missiles (Talons, right?) were at cloud level, David's Sling missiles zipped through from the left.
3 MRBMs were on screen. Probably a lot more going on off screen while he's zooming on other things.
 
Sferrin said:
If this is actually true then the question becomes, where are they getting their targeting information?
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Probably more than one source. They have spy satellites or could also be using intelligence from other countries such as Pakistan. It’s also not difficult to triangulate air defenses based on media footage were the launches are coming from or hacking CCTV cameras. Iranian drones have also penetrated deep into Israel and something like a Shaheed can have cameras as Russia has modified some variants to use cameras. There is also spies, as recently Israel uncovered spies working for Iran.
 
jeffb said:
Doing the numbers...

Can't speak to the accuracy of those numbers though. Anyone want to take a shot?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934703963359613335
View: https://x.com/pati_marins64/status/1934703963359613335?t=SpUpytYc44v-Nm-woPnwlw&s=19
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Patricia has a good point every once in a while, but she is making several crucial errors in that post:
  1. "Israel currently has three Arrow 3 batteries and two David's Sling batteries for intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles."
    1. That is not public knowledge. Several years ago the IDF may have disclosed such information, but since has not updated it, and initiated processes to accelerate production.
    2. David's Sling having 2 batteries is known to me from early in its service, but the IDF's withdrawal of the Patriot from service has been done in parallel with acquisition of new David's Sling systems and interceptors.
    3. And of course a special US budget was allocated to accelerate production in response to October 7th.

  2. "and intercept doctrine typically allocates 2 defensive missiles per ballistic and a salvo of 3 per hypersonic missile, followed by another salvo of 2"
    1. No idea what she is even referring to here as "hypersonic".
    2. Where would she get such classified information?

  3. "Considering further that the U.S. produces about 500 Patriot missiles annually, even with 1,400 batteries and various operators; and MBDA produces about 130 Aster 30 missiles per year, I would say Israel produces no more than 100-150 David's Sling missiles per year"
    1. Tying DS production to Aster and Patriot is a bad methodology.
    2. Between October 7th 2023 and now, the IDF has used a crazy high amount of munitions, including interceptors. And it still has enough to fight Iran.
    3. The US and Europe's current or pre-Ukraine war production levels are driven first by interest in keeping production running, and by difficulty to decide to ramp up in time.
    4. The reasonable approach would therefore be that Israel which prepared for a conflict with Iran for decades, has ran production with a different set of requirements, prioritizing quantity.
It generally seems like she's pulling numbers out of thin air, using these to generate new numbers.
 

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