June 1, 2025 - Russian Airfields FPV Takedown

[MihoshiK]

While I'm aware that this is a lame attempt at trolling, I personally expect, if a dedicated response will actually follow:

> attack against the remaining nuclear facilities active in Ukraine, severing them from the grid.

> use of conventional IRBMs against the government district in Kiev.

and my personal favorite

> use of chemical warheads on Iskander-M during the next missile attacks against urban targets. (Chemical weapons are far more digestible than even tactical nuclear weapons, in 3 years nobody would talk about it anymore. A couple thousands dead and a couple more wounded would be a clear warning, but that's a hardliner approach, obviously)

But all of this depends on Putins willingness to attack Ukrainian people to increase pressure on the Ukrainian government. And this hasn't really been his playbook so far. Which is why except maybe the second option, these are rather unlikely. Although it would be undoubtedly entertaining.

The thing is, all of this is out of some misguided macho stronkman idea that simply because these planes were part of russia's nuclear forces, no one would touch them, even though a lot of them were regularly used to lob cruise missiles at hospitals and schools.

Basically, russia made these planes a conventional target. A certain quote by Bomber Harris comes to mind.

If they're now going ot go MAXIMUM ATROCITY, after already being the assholes that started a war in the EU's back yard, do you honestly think that people would forget that?

<insert expletive> do you think the Dutch have already forgiven Russia for that downed airliner?

 

[Arjen]

And you could argue that, but I think it would be a strawman argument.

 

[DWG]

Seeing a lot of talk about Russia being required to park their strategic bombers in the open for NEW START verification purposes and that Ukraine's strike may have very serious consequences.

Former National Security Advisor, General Mike Flynn:

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1929297294358139364

View: https://x.com/GenFlynn/status/1929297294358139364?t=oJixzh50sg5y_djsS-yBIA&s=19



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https://twitter.com/x/status/1929571689555267886

View: https://x.com/mtmalinen/status/1929571689555267886?t=c--JEeFjDoiZtipDVYWEXA&s=19

Strategic watershed or chicken little? Taking all bets!

Beyond the startling incompetence of an NSA, current or former, pontificating on treaty violations while apparently not being aware that Russia already walked away from Open Skies, CFE, New START and INF; if you translate Tuomas Malinen's Finnish wiki entry to English it basically summarizes down to "conspiracy theorist and Russian shill".

And if you were the Ukrainians, about to launch a major operation in the heart of Russia, would you trust the Trump White House with that information in advance?

 

[EmoBirb]

The thing is, all of this is out of some misguided macho stronkman idea that simply because these planes were part of russia's nuclear forces, no one would touch them, even though a lot of them were regularly used to lob cruise missiles at hospitals and schools.

Basically, russia made these planes a conventional target. A certain qote by Bomber Harris comes to mind.

If they're now going ot go MAXIMUM ATROCITY, after already being the assholes that started a war in the EU's back yard, do you honestly think that people would forget that?

<insert expletive> do you think the Dutch have already forgiven Russia for that downed airliner?

Nuclear power plants provide the energy that keeps the lights on in Ukrainian drone workshops and barracks. Would it now be justifiable to sling a ballistic missile straight into the reactor hall? I don't think so, and I think most people agree with me. These slippery slopes are a dangerous game, especially in a world where people become impatient and some have vastly longer sticks that they carry than for example their neighbor.

> do you honestly think that people would forget that?

Yes. Because people forget most things that's out of the news cycle for a couple weeks. That is how things are, for better or worse. The chemical warfare of the Iran-Iraq war is forgotten, Hiroshima isn't. The huge chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio is forgotten, Tschernobyl isn't. That's what I meant when I said politically more digestible. It's another step up the escalation ladder but not directly the very top. And escalation, like this one, usually sees escalation as a reaction. Online difference is one side can handle vastly more than the other. That's my point.

And that's also my final point because I can already feel that we're walking on thin ice here and that the mods will have a shock the next time they open this thread.

 

[MihoshiK]

Nuclear power plants provide the energy that keeps the lights on in Ukrainian drone workshops and barracks. Would it now be justifiable to sling a ballistic missile straight into the reactor hall? I don't think so, and I think most people agree with me. These slippery slopes are a dangerous game, especially in a world where people become impatient and some have vastly longer sticks that they carry than for example their neighbor.

And why would the rest of the world sit by and let russia start a de facto nuclear disaster... AGAIN?

Because it's pee-pee was hurt?

> do you honestly think that people would forget that?

Yes. Because people forget most things that's out of the news cycle for a couple weeks. That is how things are, for better or worse. The chemical warfare of the Iran-Iraq war is forgotten, Hiroshima isn't. The huge chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio is forgotten, Tschernobyl isn't. That's what I meant when I said politically more digestible. It's another step up the escalation ladder but not directly the very top. And escalation, like this one, usually sees escalation as a reaction. Online difference is one side can handle vastly more than the other. That's my point.

And that's also my final point because I can already feel that we're walking on thin ice here and that the mods will have a shock the next time they open this thread.

You're a damn fool if you really think that. We still haven't forgotten what the Serbs were up to, and they were a lot less gruesome then what you propose now.
Of course part of that is because they can't help but let everyone know... Just like another country that's proud of it's atrocities.

 

[EmoBirb]

View attachment 772288

"A straw man fallacy occurs when someone distorts or exaggerates another person's argument, and then attacks the distorted version of the argument."

You distorted, or more accurately contested the argument I made, and tried to disprove it on the grounds you made up. I think it still fits quite well.

 

[EmoBirb]

And why would the rest of the world sit by and let russia start a de facto nuclear disaster... AGAIN?

Because it's pee-pee was hurt?

You're a damn fool if you really think that. We still haven't forgotten what the Serbs were up to, and they were a lot less gruesome then what you propose now.
Of course part of that is because they can't help but let everyone know... Just like another country that's proud of it's atrocities.

I think you should go back and read what I wrote again. The point is that just because certain things have a connection to war fighting doesn't mean it's particular smart to target them. I equated the attack on strategic bombers, used for conventional strikes, to nuclear power plants providing electricity for the general war effort. And why it's not very smart to strike strategic assets, just as it wouldn't be smart to throw a missile at a running reactor.

I truly think you should control your barely contained emotions, reevaluate how you want to express you point and edit your reply accordingly later. I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Arjen]

> do you honestly think that people would forget that?

Yes. Because people forget most things that's out of the news cycle for a couple weeks.

I. Have. Not.
196 of my compatriots died in the attack, as wel as over a hundred others.
Of course, this pales into insignificance against the hundred of thousands of casualties of the war in Ukraine. Many of them civilians.

Russia isn't deliberately targeting civilians, especially in the east, given that they are planning to integrate these people into their own population.

Your statement.

While Israel is pursuing a policy of genocide, aka a war of extermination.

Whataboutism.

 

[MihoshiK]

I think you should go back and read what I wrote again. The point is that just because certain things have a connection to war fighting doesn't mean it's particular smart to target them. I equated the attack on strategic bombers, used for conventional strikes, to nuclear power plants providing electricity for the general war effort. And why it's not very smart to strike strategic assets, just as it wouldn't be smart to throw a missile at a running reactor.

I truly think you should control your barely contained emotions, reevaluate how you want to express you point and edit your reply accordingly later. I'm looking forward to it.

You know what? Fair. I misread that. But Russia could, and HAS, struck at various power plants and energy grid parts repeatedly. They just didn't target the reactor halls.

Just like Ukraine didn't target the nukes.

 

[leiter]

A quiet drone

I feel like this would be the greatest hurdle in such a plan. Judging by combat footage drones are... not quiet. If anything their manufacturers probably go through many sleepless nights trying to make them sound as hellish as possible. At least we know what this era's Stuka siren is...

They can even recharge from powerlines now. You could have your drone with the solar cells hang out on top of a building, or hidden out of the way, serve as a "base" for even smaller drones. They need a recharge then head back to base, recharge or hunker down until another target presents itself. Maybe the "base" drone has a Starlink mini onboard and forwards targeting info to the swarm. The possibilities are endless.

Assuming drones won't get (acceptably) quiet any time soon, a decently realistic way to prevent such diffused attacks would be a total grounding of and perhaps possession ban on most, if not all, civilian drones (already done in Egypt) and the imposition of an obligation to report any suspicious drones on citizens. Turn civilians into surveillance nodes, so to speak. We all have phones already.

 

[EmoBirb]

Whataboutism.

No? I showcased the difference between not deliberately targeting civilians and actively trying to target civilians through the examples of Russias invasion of Ukraine and Israels genocide of the Palestinians.

 

[Michel Van]

the internet and Meme factory produce allot malice humour about the attack
like this one
why is there no Russian carrier ? they got none...

 

[EmoBirb]

You know what? Fair. I misread that. But Russia could, and HAS, struck at various power plants and energy grid parts repeatedly. They just didn't target the reactor halls.

Just like Ukraine didn't target the nukes.

They mainly targeted conventional power plants however, mostly thermal and hydroelectric power plants. The NPPs and their substations at large were left alone (for the most part).

> Just like Ukraine didn't target the nukes.

They didn't, but it could be interpreted as an attempt to weaken the strategic forces and thus create a risk to the national security, just how a nuclear accident would be a risk to the national security for Ukraine. I think the comparison still holds up.

They could have alternatively gone for production or storage facilities of the cruise missiles used in the Russian missile strikes. As an example. So while in all regards a well executed military operation, I'm not convinced they are aware of the political ramifications.

I repeat: nothing ever happens...until something happens.

 

[SOC]

It has long been established that certain things are off limits, the US and USSR/Russia agreed on that. And as the biggest backer of Ukraine the US has a certain responsibility to keep them from escalating into certain directions, I doubt the US and it's citizens are quite fond of the prospect of an all out nuclear exchange with Russia.

Ukraine targeted Russian combat aircraft being actively employed in cruise missile attacks on Ukraine. If Russia wanted to pretend that they weren't valid military targets, then they shouldn't have used them in the war. If you choose to use a dual-use asset in a conventional war, people are in fact allowed to shoot at it.

And if Russia starts a nuclear exchange with the US because Russian combat assets that were being used in combat were attacked by the people they were being used against, then that arguably says more about the Californian in the Kremlin's actual intentions. But hey, it's certainly one way to finally bring that three-day "special military operation" to a close.

 

[Forest Green]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929908643299786921

View: https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1929908643299786921

 

[EmoBirb]

total grounding of and perhaps possession ban on most, if not all, civilian drones (already done in Egypt) and the imposition of an obligation to report any suspicious drones on citizens.

I think this is the direction we're heading towards in the west. I guess drone hobbyists had a good run, but at a point where a drone can basically be used like an RPG, they probably should be regulated like one.

 

[Forest Green]

"You don't have any cards."

 

[martinbayer]

I very much doubt the current US government is really interested in the fate of Ukraine.

I have to believe that Trump was not given a heads up on Ukraine's attack plan because Zelenskyy has to assume that five minutes after him calling Trump Putin would have been aware of the impending strikes.

 

[Owens Z]

...Tanks are completely non-viable in groups greater than "one", as they will be detected and destroyed, often multiple kilometers from the frontline. They must hide in concealed positions and only move when drones are not looking i.e. there is bad weather or heavy EW protection. In other words, tanks (and IFVs) have become artillery pieces with TTPs similar to Crusader or Pzh 2000. Operations of one vehicle, absent from its platoon, moving between pre-prepared firing positions with extensive camouflage. Mechanized assaults do not work.
...Tanks and vehicles within the FEBA have been repeatedly under threat of air raid by drone attack and there's no real solution besides driving off into a concealed position and hoping you weren't spotted. This is hard because modern drones are very fast, very hard to detect, and have good range of vision with megapixel CCD cameras. This is not easily replicated with an armored vehicle unless you have a multi-million dollar radar and active protection system which costs an order of magnitude per engagement more than the weapon attacking it.
...Mechanized forces have simply gone the way of horse cavalry in 1914. It's unclear if, unlike horses (rather, donkeys), they might be able to return.

...I guess all the next generation tank programmes have not given you the right picture. They are still very much viable, both as infantry fire support and as spearhead of maneuvering force operating in grouos. It's rather they are getting lighter for mobility and putting even more emphasis on active protection instead of passive, one such programme being XM1223, as well as higher levels of network connectivitey and organic surveillance capabilities.

...Tanks have had their Karbala moment. When the U.S. Cavalry hit 2003 Iraq all bright eyed and bushy tailed it couldn't imagine the existence of an anti-aircraft ambush that nearly annihilated an entire regiment. Attack helicopters learned to operate as singletons or pairs or platoons, again. Tanks will need to learn to operate in singletons, as attack helicopters do, and only mass into large field formations like "platoons" or even "companies" in the most dire or most permissive of environments.

There were plenty of "the tank is dead" people around before the 2022-present Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the fierce fighting there has given Kat Tsun and other such persons additional arguments against tanks. I am (as I have always said) just an armchair observer, but I think you all are mistaken. If I am understanding correctly, the super-duper, multi-billion-dollar, ultra-high-tech solution of putting one Russian soldier atop each main battle tank (and fuel truck) driving toward Kyiv, cradling a 12-gauge shotgun in his arm loaded with birdshot, with his eyes and ears open (and sufficient replacements to allow for sleep and drunkenness), would have beaten off all, or almost all, the Ukrainian drones of the first year of combat. The intact Russian armored column would have overrun Kyiv within days and pressed onward to a quick victory, as per their original plan.

Yes, to defend themselves the resourceful Ukrainians have since been forced to do better than toy drones jury-rigged to carry rifle grenades and small mortar bombs. But massive Russian tank losses over the past three years due to lack of foresight and clumsy tactics do not make Western tanks obsolete: far from it. Like MaroKyo, I urge that plans for the next generation of Western tanks to replace the M1, Leopard 2, etc. be accelerated, not abandoned. The tank lives!

 

[leiter]

I think this is the direction we're heading towards in the west. I guess drone hobbyists had a good run, but at a point where a drone can basically be used like an RPG, they probably should be regulated like one.

I mean... I've seen TikTok accounts focused on dropping eggs from drones onto unfortunate passerbys. Yes, whether you're Ivan Ivanovich, John Smith or John Doe, you will probably be pinging your government on suspicious quadcopter sightings within your lifetime, from the palm of your hand and the comfort of your balcony.

 

[martinbayer]

I think this is the direction we're heading towards in the west. I guess drone hobbyists had a good run, but at a point where a drone can basically be used like an RPG, they probably should be regulated like one.

I agree, but I would expect this would only cause a temporary hiccup in dark drone supply lines, with "amateur" 3D printed ghost drones more or less rapidly filling the void.

 

[overscan (PaulMM)]

Topic paused for now.