Sukhoi Su-57 flight testing and development

Defense Updates has a new video out about why Russia's much hyped 5th Gen. fighter, the Su-57 Felon, has yet to be seen flying over Ukraine:


In the last two and a half years, it has become evident that the Russian conventional military might have been overestimated by the world.Instead of a short decisive war, Russian forces are still unable to subdue Ukraine. Importantly, Kyiv now even controls significant Russian territories with its surprise Kursk offensive.
Click to expand...
One of the very big failures is that the Russian Aerospace Forces or VKS has still not been able to stamp its authority over the Ukrainian skies. This shouldn’t have been the case since Ukraine had very limited combat aircraft and mainly depended on ground-based air defense.
Click to expand...
When Russian forces faced trouble in the aerial domain, it was believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would unleash one of the so-called trump cards - the Su-57 Felon and impose air superiority over Ukraine.
Click to expand...
However, this has not been the case - the Su-57 has been utilized in the conflict to a very limited degree.
Click to expand...
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes why the Su-57 is nowhere to be seen even as Russia struggles to control Ukraine ?
Click to expand...
#defenseupdates #ukrainekurskoffensive #ukrainerussiawar
Click to expand...
Chapters:
00:11 INTRODUCTION
02:09 LIMITED AVAILABILITY
03:31 NOT REALLY STEALTHY
05:21 MANY TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGES REMAIN
06:43 CONFIDENCE IS ABSENT
08:40 PROPER AMMUNITION MISSING
Click to expand...
 
It is obvious why. Ukraine is being provided the best intel on the planet and even low observable aircraft can be and are being monitored. This conflict is as much an info war as anything else and shooting down an su-57 would be a massive blow to Russia. It is similar to the houthis targeting our ships. They could get a lucky strike in and if one of our major vessels got hit by a missile it would be a major propaganda blow. Logically speaking it should not be seen this way but sadly as all can see with this Ukraine war a lot of logic and common sense has been thrown out the window.
 
Last edited:
Forest Green said:
Okay, clicked the link, scanned through the videos, although I don't speak Russian, still not seeing any evidence of Su-57 use beyond stated Kh-59 launching from stand-off ranges. Is there a particular moment in the videos you feel changes this?
Click to expand...
I am sure MoD is really worried that they didn't convince you... take it or leave it, in any case you don't need to be an expert to figure out that the exact locations, missions and operational concepts involved are not going to be disclosed for Su-57, for obvious reasons. It is a new weapon system, for which new doctrine is still being developed, and there are hundreds of airframes that can perform 99% of VKS missions to full satisfaction. So it will be used more as a test than as a significant addition to the war effort. This does not exclude some mission where for instance low RCS is a key aspect, but for the tiresome task of causing attrition you don't want to unnecessarily expose your newest platform. Does it make sense?
 
And I would add that considering all the NATO "intelligence" assets operating in Romania, on the black sea & elsewhere, it would be ridiculous to use the Su 57 close to them and disclose its capabilities only to achieve a useless propaganda win.
 
joshjosh said:
View:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxBsBi5OVBM
Click to expand...

that 9:00 part made me bit sad. Really just few sources assert this and that and then a table without context. This is 2024, i would assume more people will get access to at least some freewares for RCS estimate, and thus be able to present it in more detailed manner.


Maybe i should make my own vid on Su-57.. see how people will roast me. :cool:
 

Attachments

  • V4KAZWAvUkk.jpg
    V4KAZWAvUkk.jpg
    87.1 KB · Views: 108
  • ZU3PfevxJz4.jpg
    ZU3PfevxJz4.jpg
    283.6 KB · Views: 103
  • _Tai0meS5bM.jpg
    _Tai0meS5bM.jpg
    255.2 KB · Views: 101
  • QJA-pG_qk_k.jpg
    QJA-pG_qk_k.jpg
    248.3 KB · Views: 101
  • yajuc6hqwcfuf8c8pacu204xntaz28rl.jpg
    yajuc6hqwcfuf8c8pacu204xntaz28rl.jpg
    109.5 KB · Views: 102
  • 4ormb0nu8tf62gz8dgornv4vkd2e0wth.jpg
    4ormb0nu8tf62gz8dgornv4vkd2e0wth.jpg
    41.8 KB · Views: 111
Okay, so when is the Russian airforce going to get serious and start deploying them in eastern Ukraine?
 
NMaude said:
Okay, so when is the Russian airforce going to get serious and start deploying them in eastern Ukraine?
Click to expand...
Kh-69 started flying daily nowadays, if that's a sign. For more risky use - they and their pilots are probably far too valuable as of yet.

If the war will continue for a couple of years, however - they'll start representing a noticeable chunk of VKS order of battle, and then things will depend a lot on how survivable they are.
 
Ainen said:
Kh-69 started flying daily nowadays, if that's a sign. For more risky use - they and their pilots are probably far too valuable as of yet.

If the war will continue for a couple of years, however - they'll start representing a noticeable chunk of VKS order of battle, and then things will depend a lot on how survivable they are.
Click to expand...
I don't think this is going to be the case. Su-57 needs to proliferate rather quickly and even then the plane has only recently entered service and still has a lifespan of a couple of decades ahead of it. Using them right away in this war dramatically increases the risk of the US somehow capturing invaluable signal intel from it and it's not like this would be similar to the Mig-31 affair in the past, you just can't get away without a deep redesign which means investing billions into the development all over again.
 
snne said:
I don't think this is going to be the case. Su-57 needs to proliferate rather quickly and even then the plane has only recently entered service and still has a lifespan of a couple of decades ahead of it. Using them right away in this war dramatically increases the risk of the US somehow capturing invaluable signal intel from it and it's not like this would be similar to the Mig-31 affair in the past, you just can't get away without a deep redesign which means investing billions into the development all over again.
Click to expand...
Equipment is ultimately meant to be used. If it can't - it isn't a fighter, and buying it will in practice negatively affect country's war making capability.

There's also a very useful middle ground between stand off attacks with new gen pgms and directly sweeping deep into Ukraine NGAD way.
 
Why the rush tho ? Especially that there seems to be uncertainty of orders beyond the initial 76.

Let's say they managed to deliver the entire order in just 5 years, and no more orders are coming, where the workforce and toolings can be utilized ? People will quit/retired, even with tools retained you will still need to train the newer generation of workers, how one can do this when they already lost the previous experienced workers ?
 
stealthflanker said:
Why the rush tho ? Especially that there seems to be uncertainty of orders beyond the initial 76.

Let's say they managed to deliver the entire order in just 5 years, and no more orders are coming, where the workforce and toolings can be utilized ? People will quit/retired, even with tools retained you will still need to train the newer generation of workers, how one can do this when they already lost the previous experienced workers ?
Click to expand...


I think the point is that even official sources are claiming this & that (eagerly picked up and repeated by the usual fan-community) and again what really is, is barely what they announced.

As such, some fan-boys are still sure, they double the output from last year - IMO now less likely - and yes for sure they are also of Su-57M standard with AL-51F engines - which they are clearly not!

That's the point.
 
snne said:
I don't think this is going to be the case. Su-57 needs to proliferate rather quickly and even then the plane has only recently entered service and still has a lifespan of a couple of decades ahead of it. Using them right away in this war dramatically increases the risk of the US somehow capturing invaluable signal intel from it and it's not like this would be similar to the Mig-31 affair in the past, you just can't get away without a deep redesign which means investing billions into the development all over again.
Click to expand...
Equipment is ultimately meant to be used. If it can't - it isn't a fighter, and buying it will in practice negatively affect country's armed forces.

stealthflanker said:
Why the rush tho ? Especially that there seems to be uncertainty of orders beyond the initial 76.

Let's say they managed to deliver the entire order in just 5 years, and no more orders are coming, where the workforce and toolings can be utilized ? People will quit/retired, even with tools retained you will still need to train the newer generation of workers, how one can do this when they already lost the previous experienced workers ?
Click to expand...
You seriously consider that line will stop in 2027? I heard there's a war, after all.
 
Ainen said:
You seriously consider that line will stop in 2027? I heard there's a war, after all.
Click to expand...

At least there has to be news on expanded orders. I believe tho KNAAZ also play safe that way with the production rate. Maybe if the Russian govt orders additional, say 100-200 more airframes to begin replacing the Su-35 and old Su-27SM's, then we might really see increase in production rate.
 
If there are not going to be more than 76 orders in total then the whole project is a failure. You don't invest billions into something only to cut it short after so few planes.
Even if the Su-57 don't get produced anymore, the workforce is likely to be retained, working on other, probably military projects. So that's not a likely issue.

Do we actually have a conclusive proof that indeed 10+ airframes were delivered last year? I know that was reported, but what actual proof was there?
 
stealthflanker said:
At least there has to be news on expanded orders. I believe tho KNAAZ also play safe that way with the production rate. Maybe if the Russian govt orders additional, say 100-200 more airframes to begin replacing the Su-35 and old Su-27SM's, then we might really see increase in production rate.
Click to expand...
Like I will eat my hat if this line will stop or slow down anytime soon due to a lack of orders.
And I wouldn‘t call production rate growing a whole year ahead of schedule "safe".
 
What is this debate about? The facts are clear:
- RuAF received 3 new Su-57s recently;
- KnAAZ invests in production facilities;
- no one canceled or modified the order for 76 aircraft until 2027.
The "low" production rate is determined by the order, everything else is media or fan speculation.
By the way, when we have to speculate about the future of the Su-57... The Russian armed forces received only after 2010(!) more than 400(!) NEW aircraft of the Flanker family, which saw the light of day at the turn of the 70s/80s.
We know how the Felon family will grow in the next 20-40 years? We know sh*t.
 

Similar threads

Back
Top Bottom