The Great Turkey Shoot over Jordan: the story of the Iranian Drone and Missile attack against Israel and how it was defeated

Desertfox said:
Misnamed in fact since turkeys are native to Mexico, not Turkey.
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eagle said:
Fun fact, the bird is named after the country. So if they change the name of the country, the bird's name should follow suit. /s
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While we are enjoying this subplot, one might want to read the following;
How the Turkey's Travels Influenced its Many Names
The Thanksgiving turkey is a quintessentially American bird, yet in English, this native fowl recalls the name of a faraway land. English-speakers aren't alone: People around the world seem to have dubbed this bird with lots of geographical monikers.
By Chaney Kwak
November 28, 2013
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www.cntraveler.com

How the Turkey's Travels Influenced its Many Names

The Thanksgiving turkey is a quintessentially American bird, yet in English, this native fowl recalls the name of a faraway land. English-speakers aren't alone: People around the world seem to have dubbed this bird with lots of geographical monikers.
www.cntraveler.com www.cntraveler.com

So do Turks claim the bird as their own? Nope. If you're craving a Thanksgiving meal in Istanbul, you'd better look for hindi. The French word dinde, too, probably comes from d'Inde, or from India; Polish inyczka and Yiddish indik both pay homage to the Asian subcontinent. Northern European countries get even more specific. From Norway to Estonia, the North American bird is referred to in variations on kalkun, derived from the Keralan port of Calicut, also known as Kozhikode. The word traveled back to South Asia, where it became kalukuma in Sri Lanka's Sinhala language.

But don't expect Indians to embrace our name for the wrinkly beast. In Hindi, turkeys are known as peru. European colonialism may have played a part here: peru, after all, is also the word favored by the Portuguese, who used to rule Goa. Colonialism also explains why Malaysians call it ayam belanda, or Dutch chicken, while Cambodians use moan barang, or French chicken. Oddly, France also gets the credit in both Greece (gallopoúla) or Scotland (cearc frangach)? And don't even get me started on speculating why it's dik rumi or Roman chicken in Arabic.
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RyanC said:
Even if they were only short range MRBMs, according to arms controller logic; the fact Arrow exists should have driven said decoys, etc, which would have made more get through if decoys were cheap/worked.
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Well, it's possible that they weren't using their most modern missiles (decoy-equipped) due to concerns that Israel would gather the data about revealed decoys and made efficient discrimination algorithm.
 
Sineva said:
I honestly have to wonder if they`re perhaps counting the separated spent boosters as failures,you did see that at ain alasad with some media claiming these as misses or evidence of missile failure,ie "crashed before reaching their target" because they didnt seem to realise that the warheads separate and indeed the boosters were minus their warheads.

Just a thought.;)
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Well, since they are quoting a 'US official' I would assume not.
 
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CastAway said:
Furthermore, the US says the failure rate of Iranian MRBMs was 50%. Can Iran sustain launching 120+ MRBMs that cost $10 million/MRBM minimum that have a 50% failure rate? This is all seeming like fearmongering by the Israeli guy.
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It's not really fear mongering when they're actually shooting at you. Someone does a drive by on your house with a car loaded with low-IQ thugs armed with burned out TEC-9's, they're unlikely to put a single round on whatever they might think the target is... nevertheless they are shooting at you. Same with a bunch of mullahs firing some cruddy outdated tactical ballistic missiles that can't hit the broad side of a farm.
 
Orionblamblam said:
It's not really fear mongering when they're actually shooting at you. Someone does a drive by on your house with a car loaded with low-IQ thugs armed with burned out TEC-9's, they're unlikely to put a single round on whatever they might think the target is... nevertheless they are shooting at you. Same with a bunch of mullahs firing some cruddy outdated tactical ballistic missiles that can't hit the broad side of a farm.
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It is fearmongering, and complete crap. You're going to tell me you think Iran spent 10% of what Israel did? THAT is the fearmongering. The US will pass an emergency bill to give them $1 billion like we did in 2022, and that is what he is wanting. They don't actually have to worry about the money, nor the hardware, as the West always comes to their aid, substantially. ALWAYS.
www.haaretz.com

U.S. Senate approves $1b Iron Dome emergency aid to Israel

***
www.haaretz.com www.haaretz.com

"The bill includes several key details related to Israel, the Palestinians and the Jewish world, most notably $1 billion in emergency Iron Dome missile defense system funding."

"The bill also covers the $3.3 billion in security assistance and $500 million in missile-defense partnerships, previously agreed upon as part of the 2015 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Israel. The MOU, which resulted after months of fierce negotiations between the Obama administration and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, covers a 10-year period and $38 billion in military aid to Israel."
 
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There is always that lucky shot…at Dealy Plaza…the Scud core that just so happened to land atop the barracks at Riyadh.

It (typically) takes more money to intercept than to overwhelm, but there is a limit.

A couple of years ago, things looked even.
Hamas and Israel would make a joint fireworks show…and that was that.

Tomorrow—who knows?
 
Dilandu said:
Well, it's possible that they weren't using their most modern missiles (decoy-equipped) due to concerns that Israel would gather the data about revealed decoys and made efficient discrimination algorithm.
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Hell, they may be using weapons near their expiration date. This way they save money on refurbishment or disposal, and if the replacements are already there or budgeted anyway, it's a win win win. Get rid of old stock, save money on disposal, and get a really good look at Israeli defenses if they decide to do a real strike.

Now if it's their top of the line kit, they just learned they need to improve.
 
U.S. forces, supported by U.S. European Command destroyers, on Saturday and Sunday destroyed more than 80 one-way attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles aimed at Israel from Iran and Yemen, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Monday.
This includes a ballistic missile on its launcher vehicle and seven UAVs destroyed on the ground prior to their launch in areas controlled by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, CENTCOM said in a post on X.
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Why is the attack referred to as Iranian, when Iraq, Yemen and Syria also fired at Israel?
 
overscan (PaulMM) said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1779593282453905473
View: https://twitter.com/DnyAtDys/status/1779593282453905473/photo/2

1713179316493.png
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What exactly are the 4 red cover tabs covering?
Are these what they appear... exhaust nozzles for manoeuvring the warhead post main booster separation?
Or are they covering aerodynamic control surfaces? They seem a bit small for that.

EDIT: They seem to be aerodynamic from studying other pictures.

Are any of the Iranian warheads boosted in their final phase onto target?
 
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So, are we calling this the Negev Desert Turkey Shoot? (Beqaah Valley Turkey Shoot was 1982)

Where has most of the intercepted debris landed?
 
The development of low-cost (sub 200k for cruise missiles and sub 10k for FPV) precision attack is a military revolution on par with the Machine Gun or the AK-47. It changes global military balance overnight.

For the Iranian salvo, it was mostly defeated (some rounds got through - based on satellite imagery and videos from the Negev), but Iran did not launch a full attack across the region. A full attack would include attacks (even if harassing fire) against every US and US-allied base in the region. And, because of the revolution in military affairs, those harassing attacks would include precision stand-off weapons.

Far from encircling Iran, the US bases are now liabilities in any major conflict. A similar pattern will extend across the globe and there's no obvious technological solution.
 
DrRansom said:
Far from encircling Iran, the US bases are now liabilities in any major conflict. A similar pattern will extend across the globe and there's no obvious technological solution.
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Counterpoint:

nuke-from-orbit-its-the-only-way-to-be-sure.gif
 
DrRansom said:
The development of low-cost (sub 200k for cruise missiles and sub 10k for FPV) precision attack is a military revolution on par with the Machine Gun or the AK-47. It changes global military balance overnight.

For the Iranian salvo, it was mostly defeated (some rounds got through - based on satellite imagery and videos from the Negev), but Iran did not launch a full attack across the region. A full attack would include attacks (even if harassing fire) against every US and US-allied base in the region. And, because of the revolution in military affairs, those harassing attacks would include precision stand-off weapons.

Far from encircling Iran, the US bases are now liabilities in any major conflict. A similar pattern will extend across the globe and there's no obvious technological solution.
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The "low cost" is never low cost. Ability of penetration comes with a price (speed, low observable design, ECM, etc). Adding those up and you MAY get a workable weapon, mass producing it (e.g. Tomahawk) gets you lower price, but never low cost.

And no unguided rockets are being shoot at Israel, all those should be guided and qualified to be called as precision...in theory. However they have proved their questionable performance again, with the first time in January against Pakistan.

And those bases with PACs and THAADs are real threats for those who wish to perform further attack on either side...
 
DrRansom said:
The cost and resources involved to cover Israel for one salvo is completely unsustainable for anything greater than an Iranian show of force. Between this and low-cost drones, the American expeditionary warfare from 1990-2024 is dead. Something new has to come.
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DrRansom said:
The development of low-cost (sub 200k for cruise missiles and sub 10k for FPV) precision attack is a military revolution on par with the Machine Gun or the AK-47. It changes global military balance overnight.

For the Iranian salvo, it was mostly defeated (some rounds got through - based on satellite imagery and videos from the Negev), but Iran did not launch a full attack across the region. A full attack would include attacks (even if harassing fire) against every US and US-allied base in the region. And, because of the revolution in military affairs, those harassing attacks would include precision stand-off weapons.

Far from encircling Iran, the US bases are now liabilities in any major conflict. A similar pattern will extend across the globe and there's no obvious technological solution.
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Well the technical solution short term is likely deterrence via the same capabilities. Iran did not attack US bases this time because that would likely provoke a U.S. attack directly on Iran that it would be even less well equipped to handle.

But it is clear that we are witnessing a military technological transformation - ubiquitous precision guidance for any platform from hobby drone to major ballistic missile. Physically shooting down such munitions is always going to be more expensive for the defense because interceptors need much more capability in terms sensors and performance compared to attacking static targets. Directed energy weapons likely can rebalance this situation in the future at lower altitudes and speeds, but ballistic missiles will likely need other remedies. I think within a decade we will see entire global satellite constellations dedicated to spoofing/jamming satellite navigation signals from low earth orbit over wide areas. That of course produces its own new problems.
 
Side question: is the THAAD battery in Israel US or IDF operated?

EDIT: unclear if a THAAD battery has been based in Israel but if so, it is a U.S. unit.
 
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Regarding the number of impacts inside Israel, it should be noted that some Iranian missiles are known to employ submunitions (unclear if they are guided or not), which may account for multiple rapid explosions. I have not personally watched much of the footage.
 
Josh_TN said:
Side question: it the THAAD battery in Israel US or IDF operated?
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Source for THAAD battery in Israel? When the THAAD deployment to the region was announced in October 2023, they said it was specifically not going to Israel.

www.defense.gov

U.S. Military Continues Focus on Supporting Israel, Ukraine

Approximately 900 U.S. troops are in the process of deploying to the U.S. Central Command area of operations, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said.
www.defense.gov
 
Josh_TN said:
Well the technical solution short term is likely deterrence via the same capabilities. Iran did not attack US bases this time because that would likely provoke a U.S. attack directly on Iran that it would be even less well equipped to handle.

But it is clear that we are witnessing a military technological transformation - ubiquitous precision guidance for any platform from hobby drone to major ballistic missile. Physically shooting down such munitions is always going to be more expensive for the defense because interceptors need much more capability in terms sensors and performance compared to attacking static targets. Directed energy weapons likely can rebalance this situation in the future at lower altitudes and speeds, but ballistic missiles will likely need other remedies. I think within a decade we will see entire global satellite constellations dedicated to spoofing/jamming satellite navigation signals from low earth orbit over wide areas. That of course produces its own new problems.
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It's like the "Jeune école" & torpedo, for warships 120 years ago - except in the air and done right.
 
TomS said:
Source for THAAD battery in Israel? When the THAAD deployment to the region was announced in October 2023, they said it was specifically not going to Israel.

www.defense.gov

U.S. Military Continues Focus on Supporting Israel, Ukraine

Approximately 900 U.S. troops are in the process of deploying to the U.S. Central Command area of operations, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said.
www.defense.gov
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en.m.wikipedia.org

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

IIRC it was deployed there a decade ago.

EDIT: actually the article I found is from 2019, and the deployment might have been temporary. In any case, any THAAD deployment was US; Israel has not bought it.
 
Josh_TN said:
en.m.wikipedia.org

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

IIRC it was deployed there a decade ago.

EDIT: actually the article I found is from 2019, and the deployment might have been temporary. In any case, any THAAD deployment was US; Israel has not bought it.
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Yes, the 2019 deployment was temporary. It actually was only a few weeks, from early March to March 25.

Looks like the October 2023 deployment might have been to Saudi Arabia, which makes sense from a footprint perspective.

 
HyFonic said:
I found this to be a particularly interesting nugget of info. I don't think there are any American AD assets left in Iraq, which makes this a rather long range intercept if it's true.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779955591911190592
View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1779955591911190592
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Patriot was deployed to Iraq and other countries in the region in October. Erbil would be a reasonable place to put it, and that's what sources like AvWeek are saying.
 
TomS said:
Patriot was deployed to Iraq and other countries in the region in October. Erbil would be a reasonable place to put it, and that's what sources like AvWeek are saying.
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I was unaware that they had been brought back, interesting.
Still though, that's quite the shot for a Patriot.
 
So quick maths,
170 drones and 30 cruise missiles, all except 5 cruise missiles were intercepted by aircraft before they reached Israel
115-130 ballistic missiles launched "50% failed at launch or in flight and intercepts weren't attempted" so roughly 58-65 effective weapons. US said they destroyed 1 ballistic missile and 7 drones on the ground before they launched. 1 was intercepted by the Patriot battery at Erbil and 6 by offshore US ships. So Israeli defences left to contend with between 50-57 ballistic missiles. 9 Ballistic missiles got through the defences with 4 striking Negev base and 5 striking Nevatim airbase. So thats an Israeli intercept rate of the Ballistic missiles of between 82% - 84.2% and a combined US/Israeli intercept rate of 85.5% - 86%. (plus the 5 cruise missiles intercepted).

Damage was fairly minimal, one unused runway was cratered, several empty storage buildings were destroyed and one C-130 transport was damaged.
 
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The Emad missile, and I think some of the other liquid fueled designs as well, use a separating MARV. So a number of empty first stage missile bodies have been recovered. Whether the warhead/second stage was shot down would be unknown.
 
DrRansom said:
That base would be completely indefensible during an actual conflict.
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From what kind of attack?

If it's got Patriots and/or THAAD, it's got pretty good AA coverage. I'm sure it's got several CRAM phalanx guns, so hitting it with artillery won't be easy. I'd expect it to have an artillery battery and counter-battery radar, too.

About the only attack I expect it to struggle with is massed armor.
 

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