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Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 Crash

Flyaway

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As some have been asking for a separate thread for this topic.


 

Grey Havoc

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Took the liberty of copying over the relevant edited posts from the 737 Max thread:


A Ukrainian 737-800 has crashed near Tehran with all lives lost.


While this isn't a MAX I doubt that will matter much in the public eye.
There are strong suspicions though that the Iranian air defences may have accidently shot down the airliner.
In due probability it could be a case of mistaken identificaty with a P-8.

The video released could depict what is a Manpad/missile hit (long shot).

In that case, only the business model of Boeing (and Airbus Military) could be affected...
I don't think we should be speculating causes of the Iranian disaster based on circumstantial evidence until more is known.
The fact it crashed only two minutes after take-off makes claims of a mistaken identity rather unlikely, not impossible, but unlikely.
Sadly, the assumption is also shared by ppl having real intelligence gathering means:

U.S. intelligence picked up signals of a radar being turned on, sources told CBS News. U.S. satellites also detected two surface-to-air missile launches, which happened shortly before the plane exploded, CBS News was told.

Federal officials were briefed on the intelligence Thursday, CBS News transportation Kris Van Cleave reports. A source who was in the briefing said it appears missile components were found near the crash site.
There is a possible video of a missile hit and photos of missile debris near the crash. Time for a new thread?
I do agree.
In the longer run, this could be dynamite against the Iranian Regime: they rely of the fact that there was no way but that the USS Vincennes shootdown of Iran Air 655 was deliberate, and what have they done? - Shot down an airliner, and tried to erase the evidence.
OK, so can we please, please take this to a new topic?
 

Orionblamblam

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Don't take this as "victim blaming," but ya gotta wonder what an airline was doing flying in to, out of or over Iran at the time. It seems Iran should be a no-fly zone until the current government is replaced and the four-decade-long threat of constant war is ended.
 

rooster

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There is no shortage of stupidity in the world. I feel bad for people like the Canadian woman who wasn't even supposed to be on that flight.

What in the heck are Canadians traveling to Iran for anyways?

It seems most of the major crashes i can recall are now either suicidal pilots, terrorism, or being shot down by Russians or now Iranians.
 

TomS

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There is no shortage of stupidity in the world. I feel bad for people like the Canadian woman who wasn't even supposed to be on that flight.

What in the heck are Canadians traveling to Iran for anyways?
The vast majority of the Canadians on the flight were dual Iranian-Canadian nationals. There's quite a large Iranian expat community in Canada. Apparently the routing Tehran to Kiev to Toronto is pretty much the cheapest way to get from Iran to Canada.

 
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Dynoman

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Tehran's Imam Khomeini International Airport is a very active airport, and since the incident, remains a very active airport. Flightaware shows many flights arriving and departing the field despite the crash.
 

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It's interesting to me how a supposed Iranian integrated air defense network that did not convey that an attack was taking place had a lone mobile SA-15 launch crew (although they said there was increased air activity) decide to take it upon themselves to initiate a defense against an aircraft departing from the International Airport. The aircraft's transponder, flight path, no imposed civil flight restriction, and the lack of a direct threat (target) warning from ADOC should have been reason enough for the launch crew to question firing their weapon. The only thought that I have is that a jittery SA-15 crew lost communications with their HQ and believed they were under attack.

"The KADHQ serves as a national air-defense operations center (ADOC) with more than seven sector operations centers (SOCs) controlling different parts of the country. Every SOC links and manages air defenses within its area of responsibility, and coordinates its activities with adjacent sectors. The ADOC then shares and fuses all target information with that of the IRGC's Sarallah (Revenge of God) general headquarters into a comprehensive threat picture for use by commanders and top decision makers. Indeed, air defense is one of the few areas where the national and revolutionary armed forces cooperate. All sector commands, down to individual assets, are also empowered to take appropriate measures in case their communications with the ADOC are severed." - Washington Institute (Jan. 11, 2017)
 

Flyaway

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I thought it might be partly caused by being an older system that had contributed to this incident what with the sanctions Iran is under, but it’s actually a fairly modern system still in use in Russia.
 

kaiserd

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At least the Iranians have now owned up to it.

Impressed they admit their responsibility.
The admission and the incident itself are indicative of the strange (to outsiders) "political" culture of modern day Iran.
Not sure it's widely recognized as the strange mixture of reactionary top-down clerical rule and bottom-up limited/pseudo- (but still lively) democracy, with pressure (if not actual accountability) from below, that it is.
Hence re: their own people the Iranian regime probably thought that it would do them more damage in the end trying to pretend it wasn't a shoot down.
Instead you'll probably see a narrative pushed where the conditions leading to the shoot down end up are solely attributed to the US, with probable co-existence with the more subtle pushing of (conspiracy) theories indicating the US had a more direct malicious but unseen hand in the incident.
 

Avimimus

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True. The potential political posturing around this might be reduced a bit by Flight 655... as a lot of Iranians still remember that (it took a long time to get compensation etc.) So, hopefully the government will do the right thing.
 

steelpillow

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Don't take this as "victim blaming," but ya gotta wonder what an airline was doing flying in to, out of or over Iran at the time. It seems Iran should be a no-fly zone until the current government is replaced and the four-decade-long threat of constant war is ended.
There was no imminent threat to Iranian airspace, as such. Paranoia about "threats of constant war" is just that: it was still very much business as usual for all international air traffic there.
However yesterday (Friday) the UK did officially warn airlines off, because of heightened military activity that has followed in the days after the incident. Many airlines, especially Middle Eastern ones, are ignoring the warnings:
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/iran-plane-crash-ukraine-flight-ps752-missile-travel-iraq-mh17-a9279266.html
 

kaiserd

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Don't take this as "victim blaming," but ya gotta wonder what an airline was doing flying in to, out of or over Iran at the time. It seems Iran should be a no-fly zone until the current government is replaced and the four-decade-long threat of constant war is ended.
There was no imminent threat to Iranian airspace, as such. Paranoia about "threats of constant war" is just that: it was still very much business as usual for all international air traffic there.
However yesterday (Friday) the UK did officially warn airlines off, because of heightened military activity that has followed in the days after the incident. Many airlines, especially Middle Eastern ones, are ignoring the warnings:
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/iran-plane-crash-ukraine-flight-ps752-missile-travel-iraq-mh17-a9279266.html
I’d suggest contributors shouldn’t feel the need to respond to apparently intentionally provocative posts seeking attention.
 

kitnut617

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It was fortunate that there was some individual outside at the time, with their camera pointed in the right direction, videoing the night time sky ------- ;)
 

Orionblamblam

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It was fortunate that there was some individual outside at the time, with their camera pointed in the right direction, videoing the night time sky ------- ;)
What with ballistic missiles being launched, the chances of someone being outside and watching for this sort of thing would be improved.
 

Dynoman

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Flightglobal.com suggests that:

“The most likely scenario is that a badly trained or inexperienced crew of [a Tor-M1], exhausted after being on alert for days during the US-Iran standoff and scared of being hit as part of a retaliatory US strike… made a series of tragic and incorrect assumptions when PS752 appeared on their radar screen,” and, "because Tor-M1s are mobile units, designed to move with military formations in the field, their control systems have greater autonomy and perhaps less inter-connection with broader air defense systems, leaving launch decisions in the hands of small units."
 

TomS

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>Sigh< No ballistic missiles were launched - those are the things that carry nukes for thousands of miles. Nor were ordinary AA missiles were launched prior to the event - even the most cautious of flight planners are not psychic.
Ballistic missiles come in various sizes and ranges, and with both conventional and non-conventional warheads.

 

steelpillow

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I’d suggest contributors shouldn’t feel the need to respond to apparently intentionally provocative posts seeking attention.
Well really I had just found a useful link and, as it seemed vaguely relevant to the absurd suggestion, I chose to kill two birds with one stone and clarify the issues in case a less well-informed reader comes across the post. Subsequent posts have borne out the wisdom of your advice.
 

steelpillow

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>Sigh< No ballistic missiles were launched - those are the things that carry nukes for thousands of miles. Nor were ordinary AA missiles were launched prior to the event - even the most cautious of flight planners are not psychic.
Ballistic missiles come in various sizes and ranges, and with both conventional and non-conventional warheads.

I stand (technically) corrected. Not launched under commercial flight paths, though.
 

TomcatViP

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They do have a weapon factory in the area of the shot down. The TOR wasn't where it was just to sell icecream. It was protecting sensitive target against retaliation.

Moreover the fact that the regime did not shut down all civilian flights despite awaiting for some probable airstrikes might be seen as a way to shield themselves behind civilians.
Something Iranian affiliated paramilitary groups are well known for.
 
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Grey Havoc

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It's interesting to me how a supposed Iranian integrated air defense network that did not convey that an attack was taking place had a lone mobile SA-15 launch crew (although they said there was increased air activity) decide to take it upon themselves to initiate a defense against an aircraft departing from the International Airport. The aircraft's transponder, flight path, no imposed civil flight restriction, and the lack of a direct threat (target) warning from ADOC should have been reason enough for the launch crew to question firing their weapon. The only thought that I have is that a jittery SA-15 crew lost communications with their HQ and believed they were under attack.
The SA-25 fire unit in question was not part of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defense Force, but apparently an organic air defense asset of the 23rd Takavar Division (an IRGC division embedded within the regular army) located at Parandak. The administrative reporting command for this asset would be the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Interestingly, the official narrative at the moment seems to be trying to steer away attention from the 23rd for some unknown reason, by claiming the SA-25 battery involved was at a research centre (Malard?).
 

Desertfox

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It's interesting to me how a supposed Iranian integrated air defense network that did not convey that an attack was taking place had a lone mobile SA-15 launch crew (although they said there was increased air activity) decide to take it upon themselves to initiate a defense against an aircraft departing from the International Airport. The aircraft's transponder, flight path, no imposed civil flight restriction, and the lack of a direct threat (target) warning from ADOC should have been reason enough for the launch crew to question firing their weapon. The only thought that I have is that a jittery SA-15 crew lost communications with their HQ and believed they were under attack.
The SA-25 fire unit in question was not part of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defense Force, but apparently an organic air defense asset of the 23rd Takavar Division (an IRGC division embedded within the regular army) located at Parandak. The administrative reporting command for this asset would be the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Interestingly, the official narrative at the moment seems to be trying to steer away attention from the 23rd for some unknown reason, by claiming the SA-25 battery involved was at a research centre (Malard?).
That would make more sense, an IADS launcher should have been aware of the flightpaths in and out of the airport, but an army unit would not have been as aware. I do wonder if perhaps a US stealth recon drone was in the area. If the radar was picking up intermittent contacts, it could have spooked them and cause them to fire on the wrong target.
 

kitnut617

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I read a news report that several airliners had flown out of the airport before this flight did. I can't remember if that was one above or one of the news channels.
 

Grey Havoc

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I do wonder if perhaps a US stealth recon drone was in the area. If the radar was picking up intermittent contacts, it could have spooked them and cause them to fire on the wrong target.
There is supposed to be an IFF lockout on the SA-15 system, but one wonders if the IRGC are as diligent in maintaining their SA-15 systems as the IADF are in maintaining theirs, despite the former having more resources available.
 

kaiserd

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It's interesting to me how a supposed Iranian integrated air defense network that did not convey that an attack was taking place had a lone mobile SA-15 launch crew (although they said there was increased air activity) decide to take it upon themselves to initiate a defense against an aircraft departing from the International Airport. The aircraft's transponder, flight path, no imposed civil flight restriction, and the lack of a direct threat (target) warning from ADOC should have been reason enough for the launch crew to question firing their weapon. The only thought that I have is that a jittery SA-15 crew lost communications with their HQ and believed they were under attack.
The SA-25 fire unit in question was not part of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Defense Force, but apparently an organic air defense asset of the 23rd Takavar Division (an IRGC division embedded within the regular army) located at Parandak. The administrative reporting command for this asset would be the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Interestingly, the official narrative at the moment seems to be trying to steer away attention from the 23rd for some unknown reason, by claiming the SA-25 battery involved was at a research centre (Malard?).
That would make more sense, an IADS launcher should have been aware of the flightpaths in and out of the airport, but an army unit would not have been as aware. I do wonder if perhaps a US stealth recon drone was in the area. If the radar was picking up intermittent contacts, it could have spooked them and cause them to fire on the wrong target.
Considering obviously still very raw sensitivities (simple decency for the victims and due awareness of potential wider consequences) re: this still very recent incident perhaps best contributors not idly speculate with absolutely no indication or evidentiary basis.
Not looking to stifle debate, would merely suggest that “I do wonder if perhaps..” is probably never a particularly good place to start.
 

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Archibald

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Wow, TWO missiles. The poor crew and passengers really never had any chance to escape alive. As for the authors of that slaughter... I have very little consideration for fanatics that send human waves ahead of tanks to clear minefields. And to find volunteers, they give them a plastic key that, supposedly, open heavens and guarantee a place along Allah...

Dear God. Those iranians fanatics are scary as hell.
 

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Wow, TWO missiles. The poor crew and passengers really never had any chance to escape alive.
Interestingly, the plane comes in from a different place in the sky than where the impacts occurred, indicating that the aircraft didn't just fall out of the air, but flew some distance. If it was under intelligent control during that time, there was always the possibility that a controlled crash *could* *maybe* have been accomplished.


Those iranians fanatics are scary as hell.
All fanatics are scary. But it's the ones who think they have special dispensation from God or The State or the Historical Dialectic to end lives who are that extra little bit spooky.
 

TomcatViP

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It seems from flightradar map (transponder) that the plane attempted an rtb (120deg turn) before 2nd missile ruined that.
 

kaiserd

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Wow, TWO missiles. The poor crew and passengers really never had any chance to escape alive. As for the authors of that slaughter... I have very little consideration for fanatics that send human waves ahead of tanks to clear minefields. And to find volunteers, they give them a plastic key that, supposedly, open heavens and guarantee a place along Allah...

Dear God. Those iranians fanatics are scary as hell.
Everyone’s fanatics are scary (and inherently dangerous) as hell.
To try to explain/ attribute modern Iran and this particular incident to fanaticism is very simplistic and potentially reductive to the point of absurdity.
 
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