Wagner Group Rebellion - Russian Civil War? (NEWS ONLY!)

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In addition Prigozhin and company stated that Putin was wrong and Russia would have a new president soon (if the mutiny succeeds):

“Regarding the betrayal of the motherland, the president was deeply mistaken. We are patriots of our homeland. [Vladimir] Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him…soon Russia will have a new president" (forgot the source)

This is just about 9-10 months short of the next Russian presidential election, with Putin has no intent to run again and has one confirmed candidate which is a captain of the Russian Naval Infantry (Marines).


Relating this to the track of the Russian offensive on the current war as regulars of military districts are in occupied Ukraine, it could be an 'oh-hell-no' scene - who's gonna catch those Wagner guys on Voronezh trekking through Moscow with their IFVs and logistics swiftly on while the regulars are fighting on the four illegally-occupied oblasts?
 
Voltzz said:
Hood said:
I would have thought Putin would have been wiser than to rely on a mercenary Army to the extent that he has. Being a KGB man I'm surprised he let so much power outside the control of the state, a rather foolish move.
He should have known his history - many a mercenary force has bit the hand that feeds it.
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I think this viewpoint makes the mistake of identifying Putin with the State.
Having parallel structures of power is very common in dictatorships to prevent coups. The best known example of this is the Wehrmacht and SS. In Nazi Germany almost every institution was duplicated, most of the time in once in the State and once in the NSDAP.
I think Putin deliberately used two distinct military forces in Ukraine and fermented conflict between them to stop anyone from gaining enough power to threaten him. In that sense Wagner was not something Putin had to rely on for the war, but something Putin used to entrench his position. But now Prigozhin escalated the conflict, i would guess because he was about to loose it.
For me the interesting question is, why Putin allowed this to happen. What forced Putin to side with the army in ending the conflict (integration of the PMC). Was it military necessity in Ukraine or was it the army itself?
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The old guard of the Soviet system used not two parallel power structures, but three.
 
archipeppe said:
overscan (PaulMM) said:
Putin has spoken out against Prigozhin. I did wonder if perhaps this was a маскировка (maskirovka) operation of seeming internal conflict to tempt the Ukrainians into a premature offense. Putin supporters had the whole "he's playing 4D chess" thing going for a while.

As per the Guardian:

  • Putin said Russia was fighting “the toughest battle for its future”.
  • He said the Wagner “armed mutiny” was a “stab in the back” to Russia. He called the rebellion treason and said anyone who had taken up arms against the Russian military would be punished.
  • He said he would do everything to protect Russia, that the Russian armed forces “have been given the necessary orders” and that “decisive action” would be taken to stabilise the situation.
  • Putin said: “I will do everything possible to defend my country … And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.”
  • He also told viewers: “Personal interests have led to the betrayal of our country and the cause that our armed forces are fighting.”
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I did wonder if perhaps this was a маскировка (maskirovka) operation.

I'm wondering exactly the same....
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It can be a good pretext for forced militarization. It's the same old story. I hope that young Russians will not be fooled by confusing propaganda and will choose peace. If they decide to become hippies, I think that in India there are still large stocks of shirts with flowers left over from the 1968 revolution.;)
 
Scott Kenny said:
Hood said:
I would have thought Putin would have been wiser than to rely on a mercenary Army to the extent that he has. Being a KGB man I'm surprised he let so much power outside the control of the state, a rather foolish move.
He should have known his history - many a mercenary force has bit the hand that feeds it.

When I read quotes from Prigozhin yesterday saying yesterday that Moscow had lied and there was no reason to invade Ukraine I figured the game was up but I hadn't forseen he'd try to take over the country.
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And many more have bitten the hand that abused it.
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https://www.amazon.es/centurions-Jean-Lartéguy/dp/2258092345

https://www.amazon.es/Centurions-Francia-DVD-Anthony-Quinn/dp/B000066615
 
Voltzz said:
I think this viewpoint makes the mistake of identifying Putin with the State.
Having parallel structures of power is very common in dictatorships to prevent coups. The best known example of this is the Wehrmacht and SS. In Nazi Germany almost every institution was duplicated, most of the time in once in the State and once in the NSDAP.
I think Putin deliberately used two distinct military forces in Ukraine and fermented conflict between them to stop anyone from gaining enough power to threaten him. In that sense Wagner was not something Putin had to rely on for the war, but something Putin used to entrench his position. But now Prigozhin escalated the conflict, i would guess because he was about to loose it.
For me the interesting question is, why Putin allowed this to happen. What forced Putin to side with the army in ending the conflict (integration of the PMC). Was it military necessity in Ukraine or was it the army itself?
Click to expand...
I think it was when Wagner troops wanted to leave because their contract was over but the Russian army stopped them. Things went downhill from there.
 
Judging by the incoming information, Yelets is already behind the Wagners.
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t.me

BRIEF

Судя по поступающей инфе, Елец у Вагнеров уже позади.
t.me t.me
 
An explosion occurred at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov

This was reported by the media. What caused it is unknown. The casualties are still unknown.
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t.me

Readovka

❗️В штабе ЮВО в Ростове прогремел взрыв Об этом сообщают СМИ. О том, что стало причиной, неизвестно. О пострадавших пока неизвестно.
t.me t.me
 
Separate from the ongoing sorry affairs in Ukraine, my prayers for the Russian people who are just trying to lead normal lives. Historically these sort of thing mostly impact them.

This is not meant to be a political statement of any kind.
 
Forest Green said:
Nahida1645 said:
Yelets?
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The red lorry at the top of the green arrow.

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View attachment 702278
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It's more than halfway now, and I believe that they got support from Russian military elements, who wants popcorn?
 
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law.
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Now THAT is comedy.

Remember that Wagner's traditional approach to dealing with people they don't like is to beat them to death with sledgehammers. Putin contracted them nonetheless, thus legitimating that approach. So if that's what ends up happening to him...
 
Orionblamblam said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law.
Click to expand...
Now THAT is comedy.

Remember that Wagner's traditional approach to dealing with people they don't like is to beat them to death with sledgehammers. Putin contracted them nonetheless, thus legitimating that approach. So if that's what ends up happening to him...
Click to expand...
It couldn't happen to a nicer KGB agent.
 
Orionblamblam said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law.
Click to expand...
Now THAT is comedy.

Remember that Wagner's traditional approach to dealing with people they don't like is to beat them to death with sledgehammers. Putin contracted them nonetheless, thus legitimating that approach. So if that's what ends up happening to him...
Click to expand...
It can be a good pretext for forced militarization.
 
Justo Miranda said:
Scott Kenny said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law. Whoever sits in the Kremlin instead of him will not play tolerance with the enemies of the resurgent Empire.
Fasten your seat belts...
Click to expand...
Resurgent?

Not unless they do a massive cleanout of the Old Guard(tm) and shoot all the Kleptocrats and corrupt bureaucrats.
Click to expand...


Empires do not resurface, once the decline begins, it is unstoppable. I hope that for the sake of the Russian people the implosion will occur in several stages that will make their life more tolerable.

List of stellar explosion types - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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I hope this time the West has the brains to extend the hand of friendship instead of kicking them when they're down. As western leaders are busy kicking their own people while they're down however, I don't have high hopes.
 
sferrin said:
I hope this time the West has the brains to extend the hand of friendship instead of kicking them when they're down. As western leaders are busy kicking their own people while they're down however, I don't have high hopes.
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Agree, but I think we're getting way ahead of ourselves at this stage.
 
sferrin said:
Justo Miranda said:
Scott Kenny said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law. Whoever sits in the Kremlin instead of him will not play tolerance with the enemies of the resurgent Empire.
Fasten your seat belts...
Click to expand...
Resurgent?

Not unless they do a massive cleanout of the Old Guard(tm) and shoot all the Kleptocrats and corrupt bureaucrats.
Click to expand...


Empires do not resurface, once the decline begins, it is unstoppable. I hope that for the sake of the Russian people the implosion will occur in several stages that will make their life more tolerable.

List of stellar explosion types - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
I hope this time the West has the brains to extend the hand of friendship instead of kicking them when they're down. As western leaders are busy kicking their own people while they're down however, I don't have high hopes.
Click to expand...
I hope that European leaders will not rely too much on their ally the United States, which historically has not proved to be very reliable.

https://www.google.es/search?q=kabu...AhUN-6QKHTKbDCEQ0pQJegQICxAB&biw=1600&bih=719

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/01/...-embassy-in-iran-attracts-pride-and-dust.html

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...o-pushed-choppers-off-deck-in-fall-of-saigon/
 
Last edited:
Justo Miranda said:
sferrin said:
Justo Miranda said:
Scott Kenny said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law. Whoever sits in the Kremlin instead of him will not play tolerance with the enemies of the resurgent Empire.
Fasten your seat belts...
Click to expand...
Resurgent?

Not unless they do a massive cleanout of the Old Guard(tm) and shoot all the Kleptocrats and corrupt bureaucrats.
Click to expand...


Empires do not resurface, once the decline begins, it is unstoppable. I hope that for the sake of the Russian people the implosion will occur in several stages that will make their life more tolerable.

List of stellar explosion types - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
I hope this time the West has the brains to extend the hand of friendship instead of kicking them when they're down. As western leaders are busy kicking their own people while they're down however, I don't have high hopes.
Click to expand...
I hope that European leaders will not rely too much on their ally the United States, which historically has not proved to be very reliable.

https://www.google.es/search?q=kabu...AhUN-6QKHTKbDCEQ0pQJegQICxAB&biw=1600&bih=719

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/01/...-embassy-in-iran-attracts-pride-and-dust.html

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...o-pushed-choppers-off-deck-in-fall-of-saigon/
Click to expand...
The problem is that the American political parties have set out to be opposites of each other most of the time. So every 4-8 years, policies reverse, just to be different.
 
Scott Kenny said:
Justo Miranda said:
sferrin said:
Justo Miranda said:
Scott Kenny said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law. Whoever sits in the Kremlin instead of him will not play tolerance with the enemies of the resurgent Empire.
Fasten your seat belts...
Click to expand...
Resurgent?

Not unless they do a massive cleanout of the Old Guard(tm) and shoot all the Kleptocrats and corrupt bureaucrats.
Click to expand...


Empires do not resurface, once the decline begins, it is unstoppable. I hope that for the sake of the Russian people the implosion will occur in several stages that will make their life more tolerable.

List of stellar explosion types - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
I hope this time the West has the brains to extend the hand of friendship instead of kicking them when they're down. As western leaders are busy kicking their own people while they're down however, I don't have high hopes.
Click to expand...
I hope that European leaders will not rely too much on their ally the United States, which historically has not proved to be very reliable.

https://www.google.es/search?q=kabu...AhUN-6QKHTKbDCEQ0pQJegQICxAB&biw=1600&bih=719

https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/01/...-embassy-in-iran-attracts-pride-and-dust.html

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/...o-pushed-choppers-off-deck-in-fall-of-saigon/
Click to expand...
The problem is that the American political parties have set out to be opposites of each other most of the time. So every 4-8 years, policies reverse, just to be different.
Click to expand...
That's a luxury no country can afford, especially when you consider the world's police.They also promise the trip to Mars every four years.
 
The Wagner column has to travel around 380 kilometers to Kremlin grounds, but at cost of destroying some blockades and Kadyrovites along and behind the way. About 5 hours perhaps.
 
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