Wagner Group Rebellion - Russian Civil War? (NEWS ONLY!)

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Orionblamblam

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Things seem to be getting weird over yonder, with Wagner fighting the Russian army and Prigozhin calling for armed rebellion. Social media is getting flooded with videos of military equipment on Russian streets, cities being locked down. Apparently at least one Russian military helicopter has been shot down.

www.cnn.com

June 23, 2023 - Russia-Ukraine news

Russia's FSB security service accused Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin of calling for an "armed rebellion" when he vowed retaliation after claiming Moscow's military killed a "huge amount" of his mercenaries in a strike on a camp.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

Yeah, yeah, "off topic" and "politics," but a Russian civil war is of absolute interest to anyone who doesn't want an errant nuke flying through their window.
 
Problem is a civil war could start the demise, breakup of the Russian federation, which means everyone get a nuke.

One for you, one for you and one for you.

One madman on the trigger or 10?

Regards,
 
We probably will not know for sure for a few hours but it’s looking increasingly likely. Reportedly rostov which apparently runs the souther military district was taken with little resistance.
 
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I wouldn't get your hopes up too much, last time Prigozhin went on a rant like this, Wagner took Bakhmut the following week.
 
jeffb said:
I wouldn't get your hopes up too much, last time Prigozhin went on a rant like this, Wagner took Bakhmut the following week.
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I don't hang on Wagner's every coming and going, but to my recollection this is the first time he's seized SMD and FSB buildings in a major population center.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1672435155238113282
View: https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1672435155238113282

Early hours yet, but if he's on a mission to mess with the MOD, Rostov's one hell of a logistics node to hold.
 
He has complained long and loud about Wagner's logistics situation and rear echelon corruption.
 
Its puzzling, I can't see how this turns out well for Prigozhin. Maybe he overestimated his popularity within the Russian Armed Forces.
 
The whole thing seems bugnuts. "Lets go, boys, and take on our own military!" That sort of thing is only non-insane when you've got an actual advantage, or when you're desperate, like the military is actually wiping out the citizenry. But under the current situation, I don't get why the rank and file of Wagner are going along with this.
 
The Wagner head was waiting until the time was right all along, Putin is on the ropes could be a good time.

He is a mercenary as is his army so the highest $$$ gets his attention. Could even have made a deal with Ukraine or another party you never know.

Putin has made life hard for all the oligarch's who are losing their superyachts, and they are all under the thumb. They could also be looking to finance a coup. Could be time for them to try another tactic.

A bigger player could even be China, they are definitely making the most of Russia's current weakness.

Regards,
 
Various vids on Youtube suggest that Prigorshyn is framing this as an action against corrupt elements in the Defense Ministry (Shoigu, Gerasimov etc) rather than the President (Putin).
The FSB seem to be waiting out events to see if Prigorshyn beats Shoigu.
 
Halcyon66 said:
Problem is a civil war could start the demise, breakup of the Russian federation, which means everyone get a nuke.

One for you, one for you and one for you.

One madman on the trigger or 10?

Regards,
Click to expand...
I don't care about the guy who wants 200 nukes. I care about the guy who only wants one.
 
Rostov is a long way from Moscow, but Pavlovsk, Voronezh, is closer.


As for Rostov... it's gonna hurt.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

​

Why is Rostov-on-Don significant?

The US think tank the Institute of War (ISW) believes Yevgeny Prigozhin is aiming to force a leadership change within the Kremlin's defence ministry - but suggests he is "unlikely to succeed" because the Kremlin appears opposed to his action.

However any Wagner attempt to take control of Rostov-on-Don could have an impact on the war in Ukraine because Rostov is home to the Russian southern military district command, which has been key to Russia's war efforts.

The southern military district’s 58th combined arms army is “currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command centre for the Russian joint group of forces in Ukraine as a whole”, it says.
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It's a big warning call for Vlad Putin. Wagner wanted to taught a lesson to the Russian MoD - Bakhmut versus Vulhedar, really. Wagner managed to win Bakhmut through herculean efforts - for peanuts.
- 10 000 dead over 50 000 mercenaries
- Russian MoD led them bled to death, then snatched their propaganda victory
- The Ukrainians fought teeth and nail, bled Wagner dry, and when they finally gave up, it was a Pyrrhic victory for Wagner and the russian MoD.

So no surprise Wagner crazy whacko finally blew a fuse and started that shitstorm. It is a big escalation in his turf war against Shoigu and the other corrupt morons in Putin military command. One thing is sure: with 2 helicopters shot down, there will be no coming back. Wagner has kind of declared war to Putin's armies.
Scoop: it won't end well for Prigozhin.

Still, the Russian military is so corrupt and so weakened by that war, they will had quite a hard time curbstomping Wagner 25 000 men, if they entrench in Rostov and on that M4 highway toward Moscow.

Bottom line: there will be blood. Sweet geez. Never though Prighozin feud with the russian military would escalate that way, that far. He may have comitted a military suicide, but even if he loses that one, this will play havoc with the Russian military.

"Whatever happens next..." Present situtation: Shoigu is Tyrus, Putin is Gus, and Mike is Prighozin. He has them by the testicles.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PO5P8BBISQQ
 
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Putin has spoken out against Prigozhin. I did wonder if perhaps this was a маскировка (maskirovka) operation of seeming internal conflict to tempt the Ukrainians into a premature offense. Putin supporters had the whole "he's playing 4D chess" thing going for a while.

As per the Guardian:

  • Putin said Russia was fighting “the toughest battle for its future”.
  • He said the Wagner “armed mutiny” was a “stab in the back” to Russia. He called the rebellion treason and said anyone who had taken up arms against the Russian military would be punished.
  • He said he would do everything to protect Russia, that the Russian armed forces “have been given the necessary orders” and that “decisive action” would be taken to stabilise the situation.
  • Putin said: “I will do everything possible to defend my country … And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.”
  • He also told viewers: “Personal interests have led to the betrayal of our country and the cause that our armed forces are fighting.”
Click to expand...
 
No-one appears to be thinking about some wider geo-political ramifications....

Wagner forces across Africa and elsewhere just became easy targets for whomever wants to kill them....

If I was the French....
 
timmymagic said:
No-one appears to be thinking about some wider geo-political ramifications....
Click to expand...
It's too much to fully take in right now. At the moment Chechnya and Dagestan are almost cut of from Moscow too.

Putin's probably considering early retirement in Iran around now.
 
There is turmoil on the ideological periphery of the Soviet empire. Dogfights on Syria, delegation of African leaders asking for information in Moscow on the future of the war.Brazil seeks to whitewash the Ortega regime at the OAS summit Promotes a softened wording of the declaration condemning the Nicaraguan dictatorship Lula has reversed Bolsonaro's decisions on dictatorships in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua The commercial bluff of Iran's relationship with Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela Brazil seeks to soften an OAS resolution on the situation in Nicaragua. Russia expulsion of environmental NGOs, revelation that the Russian navy uses dolphins and belugas for military purposes.The UN General Assembly condemns by majority the illegal referendums and their annexation to Russia. The text received 143 votes in favour, 35 abstentions and only 5 votes against.
That worries all those people... Is it that they have stopped receiving the monthly check?
 
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overscan (PaulMM) said:
Putin has spoken out against Prigozhin. I did wonder if perhaps this was a маскировка (maskirovka) operation of seeming internal conflict to tempt the Ukrainians into a premature offense. Putin supporters had the whole "he's playing 4D chess" thing going for a while.

As per the Guardian:

  • Putin said Russia was fighting “the toughest battle for its future”.
  • He said the Wagner “armed mutiny” was a “stab in the back” to Russia. He called the rebellion treason and said anyone who had taken up arms against the Russian military would be punished.
  • He said he would do everything to protect Russia, that the Russian armed forces “have been given the necessary orders” and that “decisive action” would be taken to stabilise the situation.
  • Putin said: “I will do everything possible to defend my country … And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.”
  • He also told viewers: “Personal interests have led to the betrayal of our country and the cause that our armed forces are fighting.”
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I did wonder if perhaps this was a маскировка (maskirovka) operation.

I'm wondering exactly the same....
 
overscan (PaulMM) said:
a маскировка (maskirovka) operation of seeming internal conflict to tempt the Ukrainians into a premature offense.
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Or sit back.

Attributed to Napoleon:
"N'interrompez jamais un ennemi qui est en train de faire une erreur."
Never interrupt an enemy in the act of making a mistake.
 
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law. Whoever sits in the Kremlin instead of him will not play tolerance with the enemies of the resurgent Empire.
Fasten your seat belts...
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Resurgent?

Not unless they do a massive cleanout of the Old Guard(tm) and shoot all the Kleptocrats and corrupt bureaucrats.
 
I would have thought Putin would have been wiser than to rely on a mercenary Army to the extent that he has. Being a KGB man I'm surprised he let so much power outside the control of the state, a rather foolish move.
He should have known his history - many a mercenary force has bit the hand that feeds it.

When I read quotes from Prigozhin yesterday saying yesterday that Moscow had lied and there was no reason to invade Ukraine I figured the game was up but I hadn't forseen he'd try to take over the country.
 
Hood said:
I would have thought Putin would have been wiser than to rely on a mercenary Army to the extent that he has. Being a KGB man I'm surprised he let so much power outside the control of the state, a rather foolish move.
He should have known his history - many a mercenary force has bit the hand that feeds it.

When I read quotes from Prigozhin yesterday saying yesterday that Moscow had lied and there was no reason to invade Ukraine I figured the game was up but I hadn't forseen he'd try to take over the country.
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And many more have bitten the hand that abused it.
 
All I can think is that Prigozhin really does believe he survived an attempt to kill him by Russian military command. In this situation, his initial actions made sense, and he didn't accuse Putin himself at first, giving Putin the option to side with him again the Russian military command. When Putin condemned his actions and backed the military command, he knew he was truly being cut out and decided to Leroy Jenkins himself on Moscow.

Like with the failed coup against Gorbachev, surely this will dent Putin's ability to stay in power whatever the outcome.
 
Looks like someone's gonna divert Shahedoritos (that Geran-2 suicide drone) if someone from the Ministry of Defence went tremendously aggressed...
 
Hood said:
I would have thought Putin would have been wiser than to rely on a mercenary Army to the extent that he has. Being a KGB man I'm surprised he let so much power outside the control of the state, a rather foolish move.
He should have known his history - many a mercenary force has bit the hand that feeds it.
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I think this viewpoint makes the mistake of identifying Putin with the State.
Having parallel structures of power is very common in dictatorships to prevent coups. The best known example of this is the Wehrmacht and SS. In Nazi Germany almost every institution was duplicated, most of the time in once in the State and once in the NSDAP.
I think Putin deliberately used two distinct military forces in Ukraine and fermented conflict between them to stop anyone from gaining enough power to threaten him. In that sense Wagner was not something Putin had to rely on for the war, but something Putin used to entrench his position. But now Prigozhin escalated the conflict, i would guess because he was about to loose it.
For me the interesting question is, why Putin allowed this to happen. What forced Putin to side with the army in ending the conflict (integration of the PMC). Was it military necessity in Ukraine or was it the army itself?
 
If I was the Ukrainian's I'd be prepping another excursion of the 'Free Russian Forces' to Belgorod around about now....
 
Scott Kenny said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law. Whoever sits in the Kremlin instead of him will not play tolerance with the enemies of the resurgent Empire.
Fasten your seat belts...
Click to expand...
Resurgent?

Not unless they do a massive cleanout of the Old Guard(tm) and shoot all the Kleptocrats and corrupt bureaucrats.
Click to expand...


Empires do not resurface, once the decline begins, it is unstoppable. I hope that for the sake of the Russian people the implosion will occur in several stages that will make their life more tolerable.

List of stellar explosion types - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Justo Miranda said:
Scott Kenny said:
paralay said:
Putin is too soft, and he is also a lawyer. For each of his actions there is a legal justification in international law. Whoever sits in the Kremlin instead of him will not play tolerance with the enemies of the resurgent Empire.
Fasten your seat belts...
Click to expand...
Resurgent?

Not unless they do a massive cleanout of the Old Guard(tm) and shoot all the Kleptocrats and corrupt bureaucrats.
Click to expand...


Empires do not resurface, once the decline begins, it is unstoppable. I hope that for the sake of the Russian people the implosion will occur in several stages that will make their life more tolerable.

List of stellar explosion types - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
Well, you get a different dynasty to take over. Han, Tang, Song, etc. There's usually a minimum of 50 years of pain between them, however.
 
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