Chinese spy balloon floating over the US

[Orionblamblam]

2023, the year America lost its mind over a weather balloon.

Only if you think America restoring its military capabilities is "losing it's mind." If a silly foreign provocation can spur the nation into action, well... never let a crisis go to waste.

 

[brownt62]

Consider this, what if the balloons launched from China contain biological simulants to test dispersion of a balloon delivered virus in the future to cause a pandemic.

It would be a perfect way to disperse biological pathogens viruses etc using the jet stream. This is not without precedent ...the US released simulants in Chemical-biological tests in major cities during the 50's and 60's to determine dispersion levels and effectiveness...there is not a need for China to use balloons for SIGINT, ELINT or photos...surely they have satellites that can do that for them.

Thoughts?

 

[Dilandu]

Consider this, what if the balloons launched from China contain biological simulants to test dispersion of a balloon delivered virus in the future to cause a pandemic.

It would be a perfect way to disperse biological pathogens viruses etc using the jet stream. This is not without precedent ...the US released simulants in Chemical-biological tests in major cities during the 50's and 60's to determine dispersion levels and effectiveness...there is not a need for China to use balloons for SIGINT, ELINT or photos...surely they have satellites that can do that for them.

Thoughts?

Testing bioweapon on unwitting population is US military modus operandi, not Chinese.

 

[uk 75]

The Chinese must be enjoying the flap/hysteria a single balloon has caused in the US political and media setups.
Lets for a moment assume that it was in fact a weather or similar civilian balloon. It still poses a risk to people if it descends into civilian airspace or crashes in a populated area. So bringing it down as soon as possible would be prudent. That is what the USAF did as soon as the object was over empty water. So nothing to see here, move along.

 

[Orionblamblam]

The Chinese must be enjoying the flap/hysteria a single balloon has caused in the US political and media setups.

Perhaps the Soviets enjoyed the flap/hysteria caused by Sputnik. The United States certainly did... post-Sputnik, the US embarked on a *massive* effort to improve technology and scientific education. There are few things the Soviets could have done *better* for the US.

Sputnik was less useful as a spy instrument than this balloon was. Hopefully this incident can be used in a similar fashion for similar ends. Unlikely, of course, but a man can dream.

 

[publiusr]

Nice drawing at the Wiki
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_China_balloon_incident
The Battle of Los Angeles stemmed from one of these things.

Plastic ones are a bit stronger:
https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/telex/videos.html
Here one soaked up 1000 rounds:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/runaway-weather-balloon-comes-down-1.188567
Like stabbing jellyfish with a needle.

The missile seemed to tear just along the bottom of the balloon…fins snagging and ripping by the looks of it. Fighter about even with the balloon?

I know the big skyhooks pop at altitude…but I wonder if at a certain altitude..holes don’t do much…heavier (but) thinner air not in a hurry to get in versus thicker but lighter gas not in a hurry to get out?

 

[jeffb]

2023, the year America lost its mind over a weather balloon.

Only if you think America restoring its military capabilities is "losing it's mind." If a silly foreign provocation can spur the nation into action, well... never let a crisis go to waste.

"Restoring" its military capacity? The US' military budget and capability far outstrips the military spending and capabilities of it's next 4 or 5 contemporaries combined, and the US is NOT under threat from any foreign aggressor.

 

[Orionblamblam]

"Restoring" its military capacity? The US' military budget and capability far outstrips the military spending and capabilities of it's next 4 or 5 contemporaries combined

US military spending is horrifically inefficient. And for all that our Navy is small and ancient. Our ICBMs and SLBMs are *generations* old. Our main battle tank is pushing half a century. We haven't installed a new commercial nuclear power station in decades. No new nuclear weapons have gone into production in decades.

and the US is NOT under threat from any foreign aggressor.

We have recently been sending some spare equipment to a small nation currently encountering difficulties with their much larger neighbor, and we've been finding that in doing so our stock of ammo has run surprisingly low, and our ability to actually fight a real war, never mind one on two fronts, is damn near nonexistent. We have commitments to allies to come to their defense... and *they* are under actual threat. Open war may be upon us whether we would risk it or not.

This is slipping somewhat beyond the topic of the Chinese balloon. Just keep in mind what Sputnik did for us; may Winnie The Balloon do the same.

 

[jeffb]

"Restoring" its military capacity? The US' military budget and capability far outstrips the military spending and capabilities of it's next 4 or 5 contemporaries combined

US military spending is horrifically inefficient. And for all that our Navy is small and ancient. Our ICBMs and SLBMs are *generations* old. Our main battle tank is pushing half a century. We haven't installed a new commercial nuclear power station in decades. No new nuclear weapons have gone into production in decades.

and the US is NOT under threat from any foreign aggressor.

We have recently been sending some spare equipment to a small nation currently encountering difficulties with their much larger neighbor, and we've been finding that in doing so our stock of ammo has run surprisingly low, and our ability to actually fight a real war, never mind one on two fronts, is damn near nonexistent. We have commitments to allies to come to their defense... and *they* are under actual threat. Open war may be upon us whether we would risk it or not.

This is slipping somewhat beyond the topic of the Chinese balloon. Just keep in mind what Sputnik did for us; may Winnie The Balloon do the same.

If $850 ***BILLION*** a year isn't enough, how much is?

Maybe they could contact the Pentagon and see if they've had any luck locating that $2 trillion they misplaced.

 

[publiusr]

If cheap and dirty had the US stymied, I could see this as being a cheaper offensive weapon elsewhere.

But I want to talk about the actual dynamics of the thing.

Above, we saw a joke image from UP.

Now, I might put a number of smaller balloons inside a larger balloon…split that open, and a lot of little ones maybe with its own tiny incendiary spill out like the spawn of Eihort.

Two large balloons with gondola internal to the inner one.

Outer one hit a glancing blow…it spins around the inner one leaving it intact. With no gondola and no lines, there is less stress on the fabric and it could take a more severe blow perhaps. The less taut something is…the harder it is to cut or tear.

MXenes open at the bottom for surveillance…cover the sides and top for stealth.

Good brainstorming subject.

I’m not giving away the farm here. If a moron like me can devise a better balloon…

 

[kcran567]

This one was easy to see. Wonder if there are other Chinese Balloons using RAM and stealthy shapes/materials in the Gondolas and other parts. Maybe designed for visual camouflage also.

Release a few stealthy Balloons among the regular ones.

Did China just start a Balloon arms race?

 

[Dilandu]

Now, I might put a number of smaller balloons inside a larger balloon…split that open, and a lot of little ones maybe with its own tiny incendiary spill out like the spawn of Eihort.

It would be enormously hard to construct and fill up. Stratostate envelope already is quite a complex piece of engineering, and making it filled by sub-balloons... Not practical.

 

[publiusr]

Well how about just two?

Internal balloon has a dome like gondola on its inside-bottom.

Outer one more gushy.

That able to take some hits?

Use this as liner:
https://phys.org/news/2022-12-team-protein-based-material-supersonic-impacts.amp
Spray with MXenes
https://phys.org/news/2022-10-mxene-composite-electromagnetic-absorbing.html
The outer balloon doesn’t feel the stress of the gondola and is free to bump around and deform.

That would seem to make it a bit more survivable.

That might depend on the altitude…temp…pressure differential.

A dead center hit could puncture both…but this looked like a glancing blow with the lower part of the balloon under tension making it easier to rip.

I was inspired by this:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-do-mosquitoes-fly-in-the-rain-116626497/
I often get accused of being “off topic”… but in an increasingly connected world…I’m not sure there is such a thing…that word coupling ranks with “I can’t” or “not feasible.”

Now, if a mosquito can just roll around the raindrop—might an air-to-air missile just roll around the outer balloon the same way?

We’re not making a balloon anymore—we’re teaching the Blob how to fly.

Maybe good for other atmospheres as insulation.

 

[fightingirish]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622418124934090753

View: https://twitter.com/ftrpltpdcst/status/1622418124934090753?t=VJLAHmixSxeR2xCE3_wYYA&s=19

 

[Ainen]

So have you been able to do your Sidewinder road trip, @Magi ?

On another note concerning yesterday's shootdown of the PRC spy-balloon it turns out an AIM-9X was used,, here's a video about it:

Given how high up the balloon was the fighter that shot it down was an F-22A Raptor.

Edit: It would appear that the AIM-9X used to shoot it down had no live warhead (Perhaps a telemetry package instead) as they only needed to puncture the balloon's envelope (In that case they could've used the Raptor's M-61 cannon instead).

I have heard that using an inert Sidewinder was a better bet, given the Americans wanted to retrieve as much of the balloon's onboard equipment intact. Bullets may well have risked hitting something sensitive.

Two sidewinder-sized holes in balloon won't do much beyond somewhat increasing gas leakage rate.
Besides, the hit was clearly on the payload, and was just as clearly an explosion.

 

[Orionblamblam]

If $850 ***BILLION*** a year isn't enough, how much is?

Who said anything about spending *more*? Just spend it more wisely, efficiently and ruthlessly. Ran over budget? Aww, too bad. Meet your schedule anyway. Current DoD spending is SLS. Future DoD spending should be SpaceX. Using the balloon as a Sputnik moment could help bring that about.

 

[NMaude]

Two sidewinder-sized holes in balloon won't do much beyond somewhat increasing gas leakage rate.
Besides, the hit was clearly on the payload, and was just as clearly an explosion.

Puncturing the balloon's envelope with a supersonic missile (Especially if its' rocket-motor was still burning) would do a lot of damage to the balloon's fabric. Remember this balloon is at 60,000" and such a catastrophic puncturing would shred the balloon also the payload was likely quite heavy so that sudden loss of buoyancy would doom it.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Weird:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ch...ed-after-he-left-office-senior-biden-official
But on Sunday, a senior administration official told Fox News Digital that "U.S. intelligence, not the Biden administration" assesses that "PRC (People's Republic of China) government surveillance balloons transited the continental U.S. briefly at least three times during the prior administration and once that we know of at the beginning of this administration, but never for this duration of time."

The official told Fox News that "this information was discovered after the [Trump] administration left."

"They went undetected," the official told Fox News Digital.

Buh?

If true, this would seem to indicate that perhaps they were picked up on radar or some such, but never actually noticed by a human until a later review of the data. Which is as heart-wraming and encouraging a thought as those occasional news stories about multi-megaton-class asteroids that zipped past earth closer than GEO and were only noticed on their way *out.*

EDIT: Not just Fox:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/05/politics/chinese-spy-balloons-trump-administration/index.html

The Biden administration official now says the incidents were not discovered until after the Trump administration had already left. But the official did not say how those incidents were discovered or when.

 

[jeffb]

If true, this would seem to indicate that perhaps they were picked up on radar or some such, but never actually noticed by a human until a later review of the data. Which is as heart-wraming and encouraging a thought as those occasional news stories about multi-megaton-class asteroids that zipped past earth closer than GEO and were only noticed on their way *out.*

Or, and hear me out here, they WERE spotted, but NORAD or whoever just went: "Meh, weather balloon".

 

[Ainen]

Two sidewinder-sized holes in balloon won't do much beyond somewhat increasing gas leakage rate.
Besides, the hit was clearly on the payload, and was just as clearly an explosion.

Puncturing the balloon's envelope with a supersonic missile (Especially if its' rocket-motor was still burning) would do a lot of damage to the balloon's fabric. Remember this balloon is at 60,000" and such a catastrophic puncturing would shred the balloon also the payload was likely quite heavy so that sudden loss of buoyancy would doom it.

There is a lot of practical experience in this field, both adversaries' (USSR/China against US balloons) and US own (against rogue meteorological balloons).
Those things are often surprisingly difficult to take down. Sometimes dozens of punctures take days to make the balloon slowly lose altitude.

 

[jeffb]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622268548705042433

View: https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status/1622268548705042433?t=ILq7q8pynVI9PkTqIfa_Qg&s=19

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622418124934090753

View: https://twitter.com/ftrpltpdcst/status/1622418124934090753?t=VJLAHmixSxeR2xCE3_wYYA&s=19

That's a different one I think. This was the highest resolution one taken over the last few days that I saw and you can see the solar panel layout is different.

 

[Dilandu]

That's a different one I think. This was the highest resolution one taken over the last few days that I saw and you can see the solar panel layout is

They are massive. No way it could be used just to power observation equipment. This thing was steerable.

P.S. And there is clearly a satellite dish in the middle of nacelle. So I suppose there are a lot of jubilation among PLA high ranks about best photos of US claccified military installations anyone ever made.

 

[jeffb]

That's a different one I think. This was the highest resolution one taken over the last few days that I saw and you can see the solar panel layout is

They are massive. No way it could be used just to power observation equipment. This thing was steerable.

P.S. And there is clearly a satellite dish in the middle of nacelle. So I suppose there are a lot of jubilation among PLA high ranks about best photos of US claccified military installations anyone ever made.

China now has more information about US cows than anyone else...lucky them.

Steerable how?

It might be a setup to sample the stratosphere or mesosphere and phone home the results. It might be running some sort of laser spectrometer through the samples as it collects them. That's a far more likely scenario than it was spying on random parts of the US, Alaska, Canada, Costa Rica and the Philippines.

https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/chinese-airship.40219/#post-579300

 

[BlackBat242]

The Biden administration official now says the incidents were not discovered until after the Trump administration had already left. But the official did not say how those incidents were discovered or when.

The documents were discovered coming out of a printer in the DNC's Washington office on 5 Feb. 2023.

 

[BlackBat242]

Score one for the Raptor.

"When Eagles fly, MiGs die"
"When Raptor flies, Balloons Burst"

 

[Dilandu]

China now has more information about US cows than anyone else...lucky them.

Actually it visited "Minuteman" ICBM field, and if I recall correctly, B-2 stealth bombers base. Both objects of high interest.

Steerable how?

By using low-speed large-diameter propellers on the ends of nacelle axis to adjust its course and altitude. It's not enough to make it a proper airship - it still could move only along the wind - but enough to move it a bit aside in current, or to change altitude without venting much gas.

 

[Dilandu]

It might be a setup to sample the stratosphere or mesosphere and phone home the results. It might be running some sort of laser spectrometer through the samples as it collects them. That's a far more likely scenario than it was spying on random parts of the US, Alaska, Canada, Costa Rica and the Philippines

Why do you assume its random? The jetstreams are fairly predictable, and steerable balloon could use its limited propulsion to choose the favorable currents, moving close to specific target. From the 25-30 km altitude, it would have excellent view on surface below, capable od making high-quality photos of anything within its horizon. And from 30 km, the horizon is about 650 km away in both directions.

 

[jeffb]

China now has more information about US cows than anyone else...lucky them.

Actually it visited "Minuteman" ICBM field, and if I recall correctly, B-2 stealth bombers base. Both objects of high interest.

Steerable how?

By using low-speed large-diameter propellers on the ends of nacelle axis to adjust its course and altitude. It's not enough to make it a proper airship - it still could move only along the wind - but enough to move it a bit aside in current, or to change altitude without venting much gas.

Yeah, nah. I remain to be convinced.

Agree to disagree.

 

[Dilandu]

Agree to disagree

Well, you are welcome)

 

[southwestforests]

At the altitude where the balloon operates, the air is cold with ambient temperature of some 174 degrees Kelvin. Thus the only "viable" IR radiation source would be the sun which "heats up" the balloon, the electronics and to some extent some amount of kinetic heating from the gust that pushing the balloon.

Question - how does that cross-reference with the following from a retired F-14 RIO?

2:37 To accomplish the mission the fighters were loaded with the AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missile. The Sidewinder is commonly thought of as a heat-seeking missile which might confuse some military aficionados because at a glance the Spy balloon lacked any real heat source
2:51 but the AIM-9X uses the IR spectrum which is to say differences in light not temperature to hit the desired target.

 

[Orionblamblam]

At the altitude where the balloon operates, the air is cold with ambient temperature of some 174 degrees Kelvin.

If the F-22 was looking upwards (and it seems it was), the IR seekers don't see the temperature of the air, but more like the temperature of *space.* The air is too thin to emit much thermal energy no matter its temperature, while a chunk of metal remains a chunk of metal.

Suggestion: get you an IR thermometer. Go out some dark night and point it straight up. It sees *cold.* and the higher your altitude, the colder it sees. There were times in Utah when my IR thermometer saw cryogenic temperatures in the sky.

 

[publiusr]

What the mast was attached to has my interest. I get a rim to center the force inwards—a mounting point….but that almost looks like a hatch.

The folks in Montana might see if their neighbors kids start talking about this cool new drone or R/C car they found in the woods.

Do we know it didn’t drop anything to ground level?

That’s how I’d spy on Area 51

Now…was that condensation I saw from the burst…or was that powder?

If I were a rancher…I might pick up that N95 in lieu of a Gruinard cough.

 

[BlackBat242]

Just a comment on the callsign used by the two F-22s in the intercept - "Frank 1" and Frank 2".

In World War 1 the second-highest ranked US fighter pilot was Frank Luke*.

Of his 18 official kills, 14 were of German observation balloons - heavily defended by AA guns, and liable to explode when shot, "balloon busting" was considered the most hazardous mission on the Western Front for aviators... something he made into a personal obsession.

His first (unconfirmed, and thus unofficial) aerial victory was on August 18, 1918 - between September 12 and 29, Luke was credited with shooting down 14 German balloons and four airplanes (on 18 Sept he got 2 Fokker DVIIs, 1 Halberstadt C-type, and 2 balloons) - 18 kills in 10 sorties on 8 flying days (he had a 7-day leave from 19-25 Sept)!

His last 3 victories were on 29 Sept, he was killed by a machine gun from one of the AA batteries.


* Counting only fliers in US squadrons - there were 4 other Americans who equaled or exceeded his totals while flying with RFC/RAF squadrons.

 

[Whopper]

This will probably end up being one of the strangest events to happen this year, and the annoying part is the wait for all of this to be declassified at least 20 years later.

Don't the Chinese have space planes? Couldn't they've used one instead of a balloon? There are just so many questions.

 

[La-Fuente Technologies]

Just a comment on the callsign used by the two F-22s in the intercept - "Frank 1" and Frank 2".

In World War 1 the second-highest ranked US fighter pilot was Frank Luke*.

Of his 18 official kills, 14 were of German observation balloons - heavily defended by AA guns, and liable to explode when shot, "balloon busting" was considered the most hazardous mission on the Western Front for aviators... something he made into a personal obsession.

His first (unconfirmed, and thus unofficial) aerial victory was on August 18, 1918 - between September 12 and 29, Luke was credited with shooting down 14 German balloons and four airplanes (on 18 Sept he got 2 Fokker DVIIs, 1 Halberstadt C-type, and 2 balloons) - 18 kills in 10 sorties on 8 flying days (he had a 7-day leave from 19-25 Sept)!

His last 3 victories were on 29 Sept, he was killed by a machine gun from one of the AA batteries.


* Counting only fliers in US squadrons - there were 4 other Americans who equaled or exceeded his totals while flying with RFC/RAF squadrons.

I heard that one from Ward Carroll. Kinda interesting that they used his name as a callsign for that specific mission.
Here is his video on the event:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2xz21HvLs8

 

[Arjen]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/05/trump-officials-deny-chinese-spy-balloons-00081257“This information was discovered after the prior administration left. The intelligence community is prepared to offer key officials from the Trump administration briefings on [China’s] surveillance program,” one of the officials said. The official, along with several others, asked not to be named in order to discuss sensitive information.
Briefers would also be willing to discuss Beijing’s similar operations in East Asia, South Asia and Europe over the last several years, the official said.

 

[Foo Fighter]

Just a thought but, could the balloon be designated with a laser? Could this be enough for a Sidewinder? Could a seeker head like a Hellfire be fitted to a Sidewinder or like sized weapon?

 

[TomcatViP]

And what about shooting a bunch of angry cats toward it with a bungee launcher?
As anyone submitted an RFI to Spin launch?

 

[Sferrin]

"Balloon gap"

Let 'em have balloons. I want weapons that can take out balloons quickly and cheaply. Not because balloons...but because they can take out *other* stuff quickly and cheaply. Practical truck-mounted railguns that could bullseye a balloon 100,000 feet up and two states away would be just the thing to use against hypersonic missiles; a drone-mounted laser that could do it by shooting "up" would be just the thing for securing the border by shooting *down."

Ands so long as adversaries are going to spy on us... let's give 'em something to spy on. Crank up F-35 production to ten a day. B-61 production resumption. Orion launch site in Bellingham. Boomer yards in Masachussetts and Florida and New Jersey and Iowa. A new supercarrier a year, ten cruisers a year, a dozen attack subs a year. Ten terawatt breeder reactors, one per Congressional district. Scrape out the Great Salt Lake, refill it via a vast pipe from the ocean. Terraform the southwest. There's no reason why we can't, every reason why we should. And our adversaries are only giving us more and more reason to be bold again.

2023, the year America lost its mind over a weather balloon.

View attachment 692892

"Weather balloon".

View attachment 692893

Zero evidence or logic in claim that this was an intelligence gathering platform. Areas it flew over would be essentially random.

Sorry, it's just daft.

Wow. So a balloon with the ability to direct its course (there were maneuvering units onboard), with a giant array of sensors, just happens to pass over numerous military installations and that qualifies as "zero evidence"? Really?

 

[Sferrin]

2023, the year America lost its mind over a weather balloon.

Only if you think America restoring its military capabilities is "losing it's mind." If a silly foreign provocation can spur the nation into action, well... never let a crisis go to waste.

"Restoring" its military capacity? The US' military budget and capability far outstrips the military spending and capabilities of it's next 4 or 5 contemporaries combined, and the US is NOT under threat from any foreign aggressor.

And the ignorance continues to pour forth. Is it because you don't see Chinese mushroom clouds over the US? If so that's a cartoonish way of looking at the world.