What if Churchill doesn't pause capital ship and cruiser production in 1939, how does this effect the royal navy and the greater war?
This scenario, is based on Dr Alex Clarkes youtube video:
What if Winston Churchill doesn't pause Carriers, Capital Ships & Cruisers in 1939? View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHeDA4vm2rQ
I have made a spreadsheet of when capital ships and cruisers should have entered service if there was no pause on construction.
Using 1400 days as the average for Battleship construction, 1200 for Fleet Carriers, 1000 for Light Carriers & 800 for Cruisers
View attachment 801851
With all these ships entering service earlier, how does it effect the war?
- Is the Strike on Taranto now a Multi Carrier Strike?
- Does the Battle of Denmark strait still happen? Is Hood there or in Refit?
- Does Renown & Prince of Wales still get Sunk? Are the Royal Navy still pushed back to the Indian Ocean?
- With all the extra cruisers how does the war in the Mediterranean look?
- What would the Audacious Class look like?
- Would the 1942 Light Fleet Carriers still happen? Maybe earlier in 1941? Or would the RN Concentrate on Fleet Carriers in this Scenario?
- What does the British Pacific Fleet look like?
- How would this effect the RN Post War?
Thing is the carrier & cruiser programmes were not "paused" in 1939 because of Churchill. They continued. There were multiple factors that then affected warship construction in Britain in WW2 that resulted in extended build times. Lack of labour and / or materials, ever shifting priorities (destroyers and escorts over cruisers for examlple), design changes to take account of war experience and growing weight of additions to pre-war designs, enemy action, no nightime working under lights with the threat of bombing, etc etc. By early 1940 delays were beginning to mount up - anything from 3 to 15 months depending on the ship and the yard.
Churchill only returned to the Admiralty as First Lord on 3 Sept 1939 by which time the Admiralty had already formulated its plans of what to do on the outbreak of WW2.
The only reference that I can find to any sort of "pause" came around Feb 1940 in Moore "Building for Victory" where he includes a quote
The decision "to ask for no aircraft carriers this year and no cruisers of any kind, other than the two Fiji class and six of the Dido class already approved by the Treasury since the outbreak of war" was "regarded as a serious decision in naval policy appropriate to the conflicting needs of the present and the future".
But that needs to be viewed against the background of the time. The yards were struggling to keep up with the order books that they had for larger ships, while the demand for smaller vessels was growing ever greater.
For example with the carriers, Indefatigable. Ordered on 19 June 1939 and laid down on 3rd Nov 1939. Work on her progressed slowly until she was suspended, along with other ships, around 10 May 1940 following the German invasion of the low countries. Work was allowed to restart about 4 months later. Implacable was never suspended at all. Both yards however had lots of work in hand and the carriers did not have priority for labour and materials to move them along quickly. One result was that Fairfields carried out next to no work on Implacable for 13 months in 1940 / 41 while orders for two destroyers were transferred to John Brown. But that was very much down to labour shortages in the yard and priorities for other ships not any kind of formal "pause" from Churchill or the Admiralty.
While there were plans pre war to build carriers in the 1939, 1940 & 1941 programmes, nothing beyond Indefatiigable in the 1939 Programme was ever firmed up before the outbreak of WW2. From spring 1939 to Jan 1940 the number for the 1940 programme fluctuated between 1 and 2. It was October 1940 before the subject of carriers came up again. By then the request was for a single ship (later referred to as Irresistible) to be
laid down in March 1941 for completion by the end of 1944. The design was then constantly modified from the Implacable design and was finally ordered in March 1942 as Ark Royal. Even then the changes were not done as later in 1942 it was decided to build her as an Audacious class. Finally laid down in May 1943.
As for the cruisers the Admiralty placed orders on 4 Sept 1939, in accordance with pre-war plans, for 2 Fiji class (which it had been planned to order later in the financial year). At the end of Sept the Admiralty cancelled a pair of Fijis to be built in the RN Dockyards under pressure from Churchill as by then the yards needed to deploy the labour towards repairs. The Admiralty also ordered 6 Dido class cruisers (an increase of 2 over pre-war plans and possibly to use the turrets originally ordered for Scylla & Charybdis) on 4 Sept. All of these were laid down before the end of 1939. Again the cruiser programme was affected by the events of May 1940 with 3 Fiji class and 5 Didos being suspended. That suspension was lifted about 4 months later.
Throughout the period the Admiralty were looking at new heavy & light cruiser designs.
By Oct 1940 they were looking forward to the 1941 Programme and a new 6in cruiser design. As that didn't emerge quickly enough orders were placed for another 3 Fiji deriviatives in March 1941 and 3 more in Dec 1941. A large cruiser programme was planned for 1942 but was sacrificed for a light carrier programme instead.
As for the battleships the Admiralty pre-war plan was:-
1. accelerate the KGV class so far as possible.
2. Lion & Temeraire laid down in Jun / July 1939 to have a low priority for the first few months
3. Conqueror & Thunderer and later battleshps would not be proceeded with for the first few months.
By early Oct 1939 it was agreed that Lion & Temeraire should be suspended for 12 months, while no work was to start on Conqueror (ordered in Aug) and Thunderer was not to be ordered (planned for Nov 1939). But some work was allowed to continue on guns, mounts and some other equipment.
As for the projected completion dates you have produced, it is interesting to compare with actual Admiralty anticipated comletion dates as of Sept 1939:-
KGV - Dec 1940
PoW - Mar 1941 (bombed while under construction causing a 3 month delay that was somehow clawed back)
DoY - Aug 1941
Anson - Dec 1941
Howe - April 1942
Lion - Aug 1942
Temeraire - Aug 1942
Conqueror - unknown since suspended
Thunderer - unknown since suspended
Illustrious - May 1940
Victorious - Sept 1940 (delays with armour plate coming from Czechoslovakia)
Formidable - Oct 1940
Indomitable - April 1941 (armour and redesign delays)
Implacable - Oct 1941 (labour issues see above. Also many changes were made to the design along the way)
Indefatigable - June 1942 (design changes)
The estimated completion dates for Implacable and Indefatigable always seem to me to be a bit on the optimistic side given the build times for the other 4 armoured carriers, but we don't know quite how those dates were arrived at.
Dido - Aug 1940
Euryalus - Jan 1941
Phoebe - May 1940
Sirius - Feb 1941 (delayed by amongst other things being bombed while under construction in April 1941 causing structural & electrical damage)
Hermione - Nov 1940
Charybdis - Dec 1940 (anticipated time saving by fitting 4.5in guns disn't come to fruition)
Cleopatra - March 1941
Scylla - Nov 1940 (anticipated time saving by fitting 4.5in guns disn't come to fruition and then builders yard badly affected by Clydeside Blitz in early 1941)
Bonaventure - June 1940
Naiad - April 1940 (bombed and damaged as construction neared completion)
Dido, Phoebe, and Bonaventure all completed minus a turret due to production delays.
Fiji - Feb 1940
Kenya - July 1940
Mauritius - July 1940
Nigeria - May 1940
The contractual build time for the above four ships was 27 months from delivery of the plans to the yards.
Trinidad - April 1941 (A turret was lost when the ship carrying it to the yard was mined in Feb 1941. The replacement from HMS Belfast then required modified incurring further delay. She was then bombed in April incurring some damage)
Built in a Royal Dockyatd so no contractual build time.
Gambia - Oct 1941
Jamaica - Sept 1941
Ceylon - Aug 1942 (suspended in 1940 and redesigned with 3 turrets )
Uganda - Nov 1941 (as above)
Contractual build time for the above 4 ships was between 31 & 34 months.
Bermuda - Feb 1942
Newfoundland - June 1942 (suspended in 1940 and redesigned with 3 turrets)
Delivery time not specified in these wartime build contracts.
Argonaut - Aug 1941
Royalist -Aug 1941 (suspended in 1940)
Bellona - by June 1942 (as above)
Black Prince - by June 1942 (as above)
Diadem - by June 1942 (as above)
Spartan - by June 1942 (as above)
With regard to Vanguard, when laid down in Oct 1941 she was expected to complete in Dec 1944 but that quickly began to slip in 1942. By March 1943 it had slipped to Dec 1945. Again shortage of labour plays its part with Indefatigable having priority over Vanguard at John Brown in 1942. Also the gun pits at H&W had to be dug out and refurbished before the extensive work required to modify the old turrets could begin. The turrets were still in those pits in summer 1945. In the end she wasn't launched until 30 Nov 1944.