What if the Iranian revolution never happened , what would the imperial Iranian navy look like throughout the decades ?

[Bulldoghunter01]

I have recently been reading about the imperial Iranian Navy ship's and I curious about how the Navy , and what ship they may have adopted if the revolution never happened .

 

[Not James Stockdale]

This topic has been pretty well-discussed here: https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/what-if-iran-never-had-a-revolution.37448/

I suspect you would have seen the 4 Kidds, up to 8 Kortenaers, and 6 Type 209 SSKs in the 1980s, plus light craft. Iran's main focus is always going to be the Army and Air Force, so the Navy becomes an afterthought. Beyond that, it depends on what path Reza II takes, because the Shah would almost certainly have passed by 1982 even without the revolution.

Investment in the Navy is going to depend on two factors: the land threat posed by the Soviets and the Iraqis and the air/sea threat posed by the Saudis and Arabs. The Saudis and Iranians were on the same side of the Cold War, but that really only papered over their rivalry, so it will become the driving factor in the region after 1991.

One thing I would expect is a larger amphibious capability to threaten or protect the Gulf islands and sustain Iran's overseas peacekeeping forces in Africa and Lebanon. The Iranians bought a number of Yarrow landing ships in the 1970s, and I would expect something like a Round Table class LST, almost certainly from Britain, in the 1980s.

With combatants built in the mid 1970s to 1980s, the Iranians would probably start looking for replacements in the 2000s. I don't think they would try a DDG/FFG split, but the natural direct replacement for the Kidds would be a Burke. I think an all-frigate force would be most likely. Potential choices there include the MEKO A200 like what the South Africans bought, a derivative of the German F123 and F124 designs, the Spanish F100 design, or an air defense-focused La Fayette variant like the Saudi or Singaporean ships.

The desire for an aircraft carrier of some sort for regional power projection would be natural given the Iranian position, but I don't think it would be viable. An aviation-capable amphibious assault ship in the 1990s or 2000s would be much more likely. Given the Iranian predilection for British amphibious and logistics ships, I would expect a copy of HMS Ocean if the purchase is in the 1990s. In the 2000s, Mistral would probably be more likely, and the relatively low cost could allow the purchase of two or three. Alternatively, the Spanish BPE (Juan Carlos I) would offer the amphibious capability as well as Harrier capability, though that might be aspirational for a relatively long period.

 

[Big_Zukini]

Let's revisit this in about a year, shall we?

 

[Dilandu]

Investment in the Navy is going to depend on two factors: the land threat posed by the Soviets and the Iraqis and the air/sea threat posed by the Saudis and Arabs. The Saudis and Iranians were on the same side of the Cold War, but that really only papered over their rivalry, so it will become the driving factor in the region after 1991.

Erm, AFAIK the main idea behind Shah's Iranian navy was to oppose a possible Soviet intervention in case of conflict with either USSR or Iraq. Iran depended on oil export by sea heavily, and Shah feared that a strong Soviet squadron in Arabian Sea could block Hormuz and strangle Iran economically. This threat stands both for the cases of direct war with USSR and war with Soviet-supported Iraq. That's why Iran wanted big destroyers and sea-capable submarines; to oppose the potential Soviet naval force.

 

[Yellow Palace]

I suspect you would have seen the 4 Kidds, up to 8 Kortenaers, and 6 Type 209 SSKs in the 1980s, plus light craft. Iran's main focus is always going to be the Army and Air Force, so the Navy becomes an afterthought. Beyond that, it depends on what path Reza II takes, because the Shah would almost certainly have passed by 1982 even without the revolution.

IIRC - and I'm not entirely sure where this came from - the vague notion of a plan was that the 1970s were about the Air Force, the 1980s about the Army, and the Navy would wait until the 1990s for serious investment.

Erm, AFAIK the main idea behind Shah's Iranian navy was to oppose a possible Soviet intervention in case of conflict with either USSR or Iraq.

While Reza Mohammed Shah has earned a reputation for being very loose with the purse strings when it came to defence spending, it wasn't totally arbitrary. He seriously anticipated a scenario where Iran had to defend itself against the USSR without US support - at least at first.

The force capable of doing that would be more than capable of handling Iraq.

That's why Iran wanted big destroyers and sea-capable submarines; to oppose the potential Soviet naval force.

IIRC, the strategic goal for Iran was to be able to project power into the Arabian Sea. Which should be understood, I think, as 'protect the approaches to the Strait of Hormuz'.

 

[Dilandu]

While Reza Mohammed Shah has earned a reputation for being very loose with the purse strings when it came to defence spending, it wasn't totally arbitrary. He seriously anticipated a scenario where Iran had to defend itself against the USSR without US support - at least at first.

The force capable of doing that would be more than capable of handling Iraq.

Essentially, if I understood correctly, Shah's navy was supposed to be composed of two major components:

* Fast missile boats, corvettes and (possibly) coastal submarines - to operate in Gulf, mainly against Iraq and Saudi, protecting Iranian coastline and oil rigs;

* Frigates, destroyers, sea-capable submarines and (possibly) small VTOL carrier - to operate in Arabian Sea, mainly in case USSR would decide to put pressure on Iran from this direction & sent a significant naval force to blockade Hormuz.

The old destroyes and submarines that Shah brought in late 1970s - early 1980s were supposed to serve mainly as training units for planned fleet expansion, and later as support force for Gulf.