What if the atomic bomb had been available sooner?

exclaimedleech8

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Let's imagine FDR heeded Albert Einstein's letter in 1940 instead of 1942 and the bomb had been available a year sooner? What targets in Germany would be hit? How does the course of the war change?
 
The first atomic bombs were the size of a van, and it would have taken a lot of modification of a B-17 or a B-24 to carry it through one of the most advanced radar systems in the world and one of the air forces with the most trained fighter pilots and the most advanced aircraft.
 
One year sooner means Aug 1944.

In April 1944 the first B-29s of the 58BW, XX Bomber Command, deployed to India and 98 aircraft flew the first B-29 operation to Bangkok on 5th June 1944.

So in alternative history world there is no reason why training a B-29 unit to drop the Bomb could not have begun earlier. The first B-29 units began to train on the type from mid-1943. The 393rd BS that did drop the Bomb was formed in early 1944.
 
What targets?

Probably Berlin, maybe Dresden, the U-boat yards...
Definitely not Berlin for the same reason we didn't nuke Tokyo: we need a surviving government to negotiate the terms of surrender.

My money would be on the enormous IG Farben plant in Ludwigshafen. Much of the Reich's synthetic fuel and various other important chemicals came from there, the secondary destruction caused by the ignition of flammables would've been enormous, and all those highly caustic substances spilling into the Rhine would've created massive problems for boating traffic and industries that used the river for cooling water
 
I would suspect that the US would want one of two types of targets for their first nukes:

1. Something relatively pristine so they could do better damage assessments on it afterwards.

2. Something that was a combination of political and military that would have great impact.

So you get, IMO, either a bomb dropped on Dresden or Hamburg.

After all, I'd expect the US to drop an additional bomb at a rate of about 1 a week or every other week.
 
As a native German born in the Free State of Bavaria in 1961, my first, second, and third choice is Berlin - cut off the head of the vile nazi snake by killing the truly wretched Schicklgruber bastard and his cronies ASAP without any identifiable remains that potential fanatics might use as rallying objects. Also, you most definitely would not want to have any surviving rump government to "negotiate" the terms of surrender - war is a winner takes all proposition, so you *dictate*. In addition, Berliners are to Germany what New Yorkers are to the US - take my word for it...
 
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You also most definitely would not want to have any surviving government to "negotiate" the terms of surrender - war is a winner takes all proposition, so you *dictate*.
Yeah you do. It's better than letting Germany descend into anarchy and having to deal with a dozen warring factions.
I would suspect that the US would want one of two types of targets for their first nukes:

1. Something relatively pristine so they could do better damage assessments on it afterwards.

2. Something that was a combination of political and military that would have great impact.

So you get, IMO, either a bomb dropped on Dresden or Hamburg.

After all, I'd expect the US to drop an additional bomb at a rate of about 1 a week or every other week.
Hamburg was already turned into a smoldering ruin in July 1943 and using such a powerful bomb on a purely symbolic target like Dresden makes no sense. That's why I think it would be one of the IG Farben mega-plants either in Ludwigshafen or Leuna. The allies lost a lot of planes and men trying to destroy them but they kept coming back until they had no fuel or electricity.
 
Yeah you do. It's better than letting Germany descend into anarchy and having to deal with a dozen warring factions.

Hamburg was already turned into a smoldering ruin in July 1943 and using such a powerful bomb on a purely symbolic target like Dresden makes no sense. That's why I think it would be one of the IG Farben mega-plants either in Ludwigshafen or Leuna. The allies lost a lot of planes and men trying to destroy them but they kept coming back until they had no fuel or electricity.
I am quite honestly at a loss as to what exactly your logical(?) argument is in the context of this thread.
 
I am quite honestly at a loss as to what exactly your logical(?) argument is in the context of this thread.
My logic is simple: the atomic bomb would be applied with the same rationale as conventional bombing to hinder Germany's ability to wage war and short of a decapitating strike on Berlin which would pose major risks, major industrial sites would be the first places hit.
 
After all, I'd expect the US to drop an additional bomb at a rate of about 1 a week or every other week.
Given the supply and other issues in our own timeline, production of enough weapons by the allies for such a sortie rate would have likely been a major problem.
 
and using such a powerful bomb on a purely symbolic target like Dresden makes no sense.
Dresden was still a major transport and logistics hub though? And there would be the issue of the concentration and POW camps in close proximity to the city as well.
 
Munich most likely - due to its less damaged status than Berlin (not bombed much till 1944) & specific place in Nazi ideology as "birthplace of Nazi movement".
I am quite sure that Munich was explicitly mentioned in certain WW2 memoirs (sorry, but I don't remember whose) as the first target, in the situation that Germany doesn't surrender until summer 1945.
 
Yeah you do. It's better than letting Germany descend into anarchy and having to deal with a dozen warring factions.

Hamburg was already turned into a smoldering ruin in July 1943 and using such a powerful bomb on a purely symbolic target like Dresden makes no sense. That's why I think it would be one of the IG Farben mega-plants either in Ludwigshafen or Leuna. The allies lost a lot of planes and men trying to destroy them but they kept coming back until they had no fuel or electricity.
Dresden was largely, if not entirely, untouched. Dropping one on it would be about target damage assessment for the Allies and planning for future targets, not about symbolism or the importance of the target. With Japan, the US deliberately put six cites off the target list to preserve them intact for atomic bombing just for that reason.

Outside of that, picking high value military targets, or if the British were insistent enough, high population density ones, would likely get the nod.
 
My logic is simple: the atomic bomb would be applied with the same rationale as conventional bombing to hinder Germany's ability to wage war and short of a decapitating strike on Berlin which would pose major risks, major industrial sites would be the first places hit.
Frankly, when it comes to nazis and their international/global past and present ilk, my usually staunch anti capital punishment stance takes a holiday, so literal or metaphorical decapitation would have been on the table for me...
 
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Yeah you do. It's better than letting Germany descend into anarchy and having to deal with a dozen warring factions.
You appear to think of Germany as a feral place of various antagonistic tribal groups. While there is certainly some more or less friendly ribbing between different regions/federal states, that was decidedly not my experience growing up and maturing(?) in my mother (and father) country.
 
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Dresden was largely, if not entirely, untouched. Dropping one on it would be about target damage assessment for the Allies and planning for future targets, not about symbolism or the importance of the target. With Japan, the US deliberately put six cites off the target list to preserve them intact for atomic bombing just for that reason.

Outside of that, picking high value military targets, or if the British were insistent enough, high population density ones, would likely get the nod.
Just so. While target selection for Germany was never carried out, as it was clear the atomic bomb wouldn't be ready in time, I think it's very likely they'd look for similar criteria. Which would be targets of high strategic value within urban areas not less than three miles in diameter, which had not previously been (significantly) bombed.

In April/May 1944, when the decision is being made, that's quite a short list.
 
If atomic weapons were ready for use in the European Theater of Operations by the summer of 1944, they would be deployed to support Operation Market Garden, aiming to cut off German forces in the Netherlands and west of the Rhine. Otherwise, they would be used against oil refineries
 
Thinking about the mission itself, while there were thousands of USAAF and RAF heavies there will only be a relative handful of operational B29s in August 1944.

How does the mission progress? Does it go in during a maximum USAAF effort to overwhelm the defences, or is there an attempt to make it stand out from the usual mission profile? Is the B29 intrinsically more able to operate over Germany in August 1944 than the existing heavies, or is it still very vulnerable due to its small numbers?
 
Thinking about the mission itself, while there were thousands of USAAF and RAF heavies there will only be a relative handful of operational B29s in August 1944.

How does the mission progress? Does it go in during a maximum USAAF effort to overwhelm the defences, or is there an attempt to make it stand out from the usual mission profile? Is the B29 intrinsically more able to operate over Germany in August 1944 than the existing heavies, or is it still very vulnerable due to its small numbers?
I mean, the B-29 does have an altitude advantage, 31,000ft or so even with a nuke. But it'd take some extra planning to find a clear day and set up the fighter sweeps to allow the unarmed Silverplates to survive.
 
I mean, the B-29 does have an altitude advantage, 31,000ft or so even with a nuke. But it'd take some extra planning to find a clear day and set up the fighter sweeps to allow the unarmed Silverplates to survive.

Maybe the B29 and a reasonable number of escorts could follow a bomber stream and veer off to the nuke target. That way the nuke strike gets cover but its obvious that a very small and distinct force has destroyed a city.
 
Thinking about the mission itself, while there were thousands of USAAF and RAF heavies there will only be a relative handful of operational B29s in August 1944.

How does the mission progress? Does it go in during a maximum USAAF effort to overwhelm the defences, or is there an attempt to make it stand out from the usual mission profile? Is the B29 intrinsically more able to operate over Germany in August 1944 than the existing heavies, or is it still very vulnerable due to its small numbers?
Since you would need the 'silverplate' version of a B-29 for delivery and evasion of the resulting blast, I'd think the way it would be delivered was the bombing plane would follow a mission profile for aerial reconnaissance. Weather and photo reconnaissance planes were common occurrences, and given fuel shortages by mid to late 1944, the Luftwaffe rarely bothered to intercept them.

The other profile would be for the delivery plane, flying at much higher altitude than a B-17 / 24 strike would follow one most of the way to a target before shifting off by itself to its own target. A single very high-flying plane, particularly in a heavy jamming environment, is likely to go unnoticed.

Since the plane would be flying at 30,000 feet + and 300+ knots it is all but immune to all but the heaviest flak guns, and those could likely be avoided. Most available Luftwaffe aircraft would have difficulty with an intercept at that altitude.

If the strike were coordinated with a fighter sweep in conjunction with other, conventional, raids it is likely the lone bomber would be ignored. The Germans, at least for the first and possibly next few, strikes wouldn't fully recognize the danger a single bomber posed to a city.
 
If no attempt at a decapitation strike using nuclear weapons occurs, and if no additional bombs are available, Germany may begin utilizing its chemical weapon stockpiles
And for every kilo of chemicals they tossed at the Allies, they'd get 10 in return. That's a losing game for them. One of the bigger problems for the Germans is as the war goes on, they have fewer and fewer means of delivering offensive ordinance, be it by artillery or aircraft. Many German divisions are equipped partially or entirely with captured ordinance that often has limited amounts of ammunition and isn't something standardized. Captured Russian artillery, pretty common, won't have chemical shells available for example.

With aircraft the Luftwaffe by 1944 is pretty hopeless offensively. The V-1 and 2 could deliver chemicals but the Allies would toss back far more than they received. At one point the US was seriously considering manufacturing 5000 V-1 a month. That's half of what the Germans produced during the war in a single month.

One means of delivery would be:

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Munich most likely - due to its less damaged status than Berlin (not bombed much till 1944) & specific place in Nazi ideology as "birthplace of Nazi movement".
Or bomb a target further east (eg Dresden, Potsdam) to send a not-so-subtle message to the Russians.
 
Since you would need the 'silverplate' version of a B-29 for delivery and evasion of the resulting blast, I'd think the way it would be delivered was the bombing plane would follow a mission profile for aerial reconnaissance. Weather and photo reconnaissance planes were common occurrences, and given fuel shortages by mid to late 1944, the Luftwaffe rarely bothered to intercept them.

The other profile would be for the delivery plane, flying at much higher altitude than a B-17 / 24 strike would follow one most of the way to a target before shifting off by itself to its own target. A single very high-flying plane, particularly in a heavy jamming environment, is likely to go unnoticed.

Since the plane would be flying at 30,000 feet + and 300+ knots it is all but immune to all but the heaviest flak guns, and those could likely be avoided. Most available Luftwaffe aircraft would have difficulty with an intercept at that altitude.

If the strike were coordinated with a fighter sweep in conjunction with other, conventional, raids it is likely the lone bomber would be ignored. The Germans, at least for the first and possibly next few, strikes wouldn't fully recognize the danger a single bomber posed to a city.

I have the impression, and I lost interest in WW2 over a decade ago so I can't back it up, that the Germans would have an inherently better ability to intercept a lone B29 in August 1944 than the Japanese had in August 1945. In August 44 the Germans still had 8 months of fight in them compared to 2 weeks for the Japanese in August 45.

As for the recon plane plan, IIUC the Mosquito was the benchmark recon plane and it flew at ~400mph and ~35,000' which is significantly higher and faster than a B29. Not only would this make the B29 more vulnerable than a mosquito or other fighter based recce aircraft it would also look different to radar operators, which might draw special attention. Maybe that still would be the best bet, this was WW2 and no attack profile is without risk of losing the priceless bomb, but I think the inherent risk in 1944 Germany is considerably higher than 1945 Japan.
 
How good was allied intelligence about The Leader's location? Immolating him seems the most effective way of ending the matter.
 
I have the impression, and I lost interest in WW2 over a decade ago so I can't back it up, that the Germans would have an inherently better ability to intercept a lone B29 in August 1944 than the Japanese had in August 1945. In August 44 the Germans still had 8 months of fight in them compared to 2 weeks for the Japanese in August 45.

To a degree they did. That is, if the aircraft had fuel available, were in working condition, and an intercept was ordered. Single aircraft weren't seen as much of a threat and given the limited resources, both the Germans and Japanese often simply ignored them accepting that they were either photo recon or weather planes.
As for the recon plane plan, IIUC the Mosquito was the benchmark recon plane and it flew at ~400mph and ~35,000' which is significantly higher and faster than a B29. Not only would this make the B29 more vulnerable than a mosquito or other fighter based recce aircraft it would also look different to radar operators, which might draw special attention. Maybe that still would be the best bet, this was WW2 and no attack profile is without risk of losing the priceless bomb, but I think the inherent risk in 1944 Germany is considerably higher than 1945 Japan.
It's a matter of degree. Neither the 109 or 190 were going to intercept either at those altitudes and speeds. The most either might get, if lucky, was a single head on or high side pass. On radar, either might go unnoticed particularly if other raids were in progress. By late 1944, jamming and chaff were so heavy that it'd be difficult to pick a single aircraft out on the display much of the time.

I'd expect the USAAF to do meticulous planning for such a raid. I could see other raids being held at a distance from the intended atomic target with say, fighter sweeps occurring over several days before hand to shoot up suspect airfields and limit any fighter response.

By the end of 1944, Germany was in a wreck. I remember reading that Kurt Tank wanted to take a Ta 152 up and there was some part that failed. It took a technician on a bicycle a week round trip to get the part so the plane could fly.

So, while there would still be risk, I think that risk was manageable. Remember, Bock's Car (Nagasaki bombing) went to their primary and found it overcast, so they went to several alternates before being able to drop on Nagasaki and then flew to Okinawa on fumes of fuel. They weren't intercepted and were flying all over Southern Japan looking for a target that met criteria for the drop.
 
The Allies could also apply a bunch of conditioning to the Germans. Send lone B-29s all over the place so that they're not seen as a threat.

Once the Germans are in the habit of ignoring lone high altitude planes, bombs away!
 
The Allies could also apply a bunch of conditioning to the Germans. Send lone B-29s all over the place so that they're not seen as a threat.

Once the Germans are in the habit of ignoring lone high altitude planes, bombs away!
This is sort of what the USAAF did in Japan. Single photo recon and weather aircraft, often B-32's at very high altitude, preceded strikes. They were often seen on a daily basis even when there was no strike coming. The Japanese military chose to ignore these planes as they saw little value in trying to intercept them and waste resources to do so.

When the atomic bomber showed up, it was seen as just another recon plane, no big deal. It would take several cities being nuked for things to change.
 
Two of my college professors were Manhattan Project scientists. They gave a lecture about it, and explained they'd have had another bomb every two weeks for several months if Japan hadn't surrendered.

And if anyone wonders about the German program, they were nowhere near a plane-carryable bomb, and were stunned to see the American weapon designs and scale.
 
This is sort of what the USAAF did in Japan. Single photo recon and weather aircraft, often B-32's at very high altitude, preceded strikes. They were often seen on a daily basis even when there was no strike coming. The Japanese military chose to ignore these planes as they saw little value in trying to intercept them and waste resources to do so.

When the atomic bomber showed up, it was seen as just another recon plane, no big deal. It would take several cities being nuked for things to change.
See highlighted statement. I think you mean B-29s.

Only one bomb squadron (not group) was equipped with the B-32 in WW2. The 386th BS, 312th BG. They received them while based on Luzon in the Philippines in May 1945 flying their first operational sorties at the end of May over the Philippines and then Formosa from June.

They only moved up to Okinawa on 13th Aug 1945, and began flying photo recce sorties over Japan a few days later. Being unpressurised, they were generally flying lower than the B-29s.

The 509th CG, responsible for dropping the A bombs, flew 12 missions (37 aircraft sorties) between 20th & 29th July dropping "Pumpkin" bombs on targets in Japan as the final stage of training.Japan and to get the Japanese used to the small formations they intended to use.

The 3rd Photo Reconaissance Squadron flew its first F-13A (The recce version of the B-29) over Japan on 1 Nov 1944. In 1945 the unit also received some B-24 / F7 Liberator conversions for the electronic recce "ferret" role.
 
Remember what happened to the centimetric radar of a British bomber shot down over Rotterdam, this was also a lone reconnaissance plane that was nevertheless shot down without problems. If the plane carrying the bomb had been shot down, the Germans would know two things: that the bomb can be made and that the Americans had given them the fissile material to build it.
 
Remember what happened to the centimetric radar of a British bomber shot down over Rotterdam, this was also a lone reconnaissance plane that was nevertheless shot down without problems. If the plane carrying the bomb had been shot down, the Germans would know two things: that the bomb can be made and that the Americans had given them the fissile material to build it.
The downing of the Rotterdam-Gerät occurred in 1943. If the bomb had reached operational capability between the spring and autumn of 1944, Germany would no longer have had the resources or means to construct its own.

The Japanese would likely face an even greater problem. If the atomic destruction of two or three German cities failed to convince them, bombs with several times more power (60–120 kt) would soon begin falling on them. Furthermore, efforts would be made to accelerate the production rate of existing weapons
 
What targets in Germany would be hit?
Ludwigshafen has already been mentioned, IIRC Nuremberg was suggested due to it having hosted Nazi rallies between 1923 and 1938.


If no attempt at a decapitation strike using nuclear weapons occurs, and if no additional bombs are available, Germany may begin utilising its chemical weapon stockpiles.
In which case Britain likely answers with Operation Vegetarian and Germany is in serious trouble.


Since you would need the 'Silverplate' version of a B-29 for delivery and evasion of the resulting blast…
Would you? The British intentionally built their Yellow Sun nuclear bomb with a blunted nose to increase drag and avoid supersonic shock waves. Provided that you're willing to accept a longer freefall time it gives an aircraft longer to clear the detonation point, although I don't know if it would be enough.
 
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Is it possible that the Germans recognise the threat the B29 poses early on, not nuclear but the conventional threat of a big bomb-load and high performance, and try to get on top of it from the earliest phase of it's deployment? If the Germans did put some focused effort into intercepting B29s in particular then this would endanger the plans for a nuclear attack.

Of course the Americans would respond to such a threat, perhaps the nuclear attack would be the first 3 bombs dropped simultaneously in a heavily escorted attack or something.
 
Outbound and target at 30k feet or a bit more I get, best data I have meant the aircraft descending rapidly to gain speed to escape. Would that not leave them open to a pissed off interceptor?

No guarantee obviously but a chance?
 
IIUC EG and BC did a full power turn using the torque of the engines to escape the blast as quickly as possible. In any case after the bomb has been dropped it's too late for the Germans.
 
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