USAF/USN 6th Gen Fighters - F/A-XX, F-X, NGAD, PCA, ASFS News & Analysis [2008- 2025]

[bring_it_on]

So as far as NGAD and F/A-XX are concerned, who do you have your money on and why?

The problem seems to be that we don't have money for either.

 

[dark sidius]

The problem seems to be that we don't have money for either.

No money , no win over China

 

[dark sidius]

The problem seems to be that we don't have money for either.

We have money with stopping F-35. The Gates decision to stop the F-22 line production was realy a good idea.....

 

[bring_it_on]

We have money with stopping F-35.

No you really don't because what 'stopping F-35' means is stopping active modernization and replacement of legacy aircraft for an AF that's the oldest its been in a long time (if not ever). You are then going to take that 'procurement' money and spend it on a half a decade to a decade long research program to develop PCA, NGAP and CCA's, and come out of the other side still short of the $6-8 Bn you would need each year to buy NGAD, NGAP, NGAS and CCA's.

All the while you are retiring aircraft and not filling them with replacements.

What you are suggesting is to shrink the USAF down to a significantly smaller force than what it is. Perhaps down by half. If that's the case then yes, stopping F-35 buy at say 700-800 and letting legacy fleets retire so we can have a much smaller, but qualitatively superior force makes sense. Perhaps CCA's will allow them to build it back up. But that's not a very proven thing at the moment and might not be until we invest some serious funds into that effort (AF wants $3 Bn for CCA's in 2028). so is very much a 'TBD'.

Now only if there was someone in the service who could make that case for such a dramatic change and get it past Congress while justifying to the administration and Congress how the AF will continue to meet the needs of the COCOMS and the DOD as it sheds force structure, hardware and people. Until then, it remains a very unserious proposal.

 

[bring_it_on]

Presumably a NGAD would have improved aerodynamics and thus reduced drag so that would further increase range over a notional F-23A w/NGAP engines. So I do not think it is much of a stretch that a ATF sized airplane can have 1000-1200nm combat radius (perhaps even more) with emerging engine/airframe technology. Perhaps even that kind of radius with a larger payload too. A somewhat bigger airframe should have even better radius.

Is that enough though? Wasn't there a statement made a while back by Gen CQ Brown or someone else stating that NGAD would not need tanker support to accomplish mission? That would certainly suggest a radius significantly greater than 1-1.2K nmi. Perhaps 2 to 3 times that. But I haven't been able to dig that statement up so perhaps I'm confusing with something else.

 

[Josh_TN]

Is that enough though? Wasn't there a statement made a while back by Gen CQ Brown or someone else stating that NGAD would not need tanker support to accomplish mission? That would certainly suggest a radius significantly greater than 1-1.2K nmi. Perhaps 2 to 3 times that. But I haven't been able to dig that statement up so perhaps I'm confusing with something else.

There was a statement concerning B-21 that it will not need to operate from or be logistically supported in the WesPac theater; is that what you are thinking of?

 

[bring_it_on]

There was a statement concerning B-21 that it will not need to operate from or be logistically supported in the WesPac theater; is that what you are thinking of?

Probably the case. That would explain why I haven't been able to find it.

 

[Josh_TN]

I don't believe in Taiwan war scenario personally.

Fair enough; it would likely be devastating to everyone involved. Though Ukraine is an example of a major high risk operation with major economic blowback that was committed to anyway.

I guess what I should have said more generally is I think we are hitting an inflection point where the role and vulnerability of surface ships is changing and I question China’s ability to change the status quo in the Pacific in the short to medium term by force, regardless of what shape that conflict takes. The Japan analog breaks down a little if you were to also accept that Japan could hit any target on the either US coast on day 1.

 

[dark sidius]

There was a statement concerning B-21 that it will not need to operate from or be logistically supported in the WesPac theater; is that what you are thinking of?

B-21 is not a fighter it is a stealth bomber , it don't have the speed to fight something like the futur J-36 , it may coming ten years too late.

 

[dark sidius]

Fair enough; it would likely be devastating to everyone involved. Though Ukraine is an example of a major high risk operation with major economic blowback that was committed to anyway.

I guess what I should have said more generally is I think we are hitting an inflection point where the role and vulnerability of surface ships is changing and I question China’s ability to change the status quo in the Pacific in the short to medium term by force, regardless of what shape that conflict takes. The Japan analog breaks down a little if you were to also accept that Japan could hit any target on the either US coast on day 1.

We don't believe in a Ukraine war too ten years ago.

 

[BDF]

Is that enough though? Wasn't there a statement made a while back by Gen CQ Brown or someone else stating that NGAD would not need tanker support to accomplish mission? That would certainly suggest a radius significantly greater than 1-1.2K nmi. Perhaps 2 to 3 times that. But I haven't been able to dig that statement up so perhaps I'm confusing with something else.

Truthfully I do not know what the optimal radius is. Somewhere in the thread there was a discussion about the size of NGAD and apparently it is about the same size as the Raptor. I was just illustrating that airframe that size could have double the combat radius with emerging technology. Just my amateurish guess is that would be satisfactory, especially if we were to acquire NGAS as that would bring the tanker safe line up much closer the the 1st island chain and Taiwan. Personally I would prefer a bigger airframe that is less reliant on support assets even if unit costs are higher but a NGAD + NGAS solution might be the shell game the USAF needs to play with congress...

 

[icyplanetnhc (Steve)]

Another thing to consider is that by relaxing certain maneuver parameters compared to the ATF, the NGAD can achieve considerably better fuel fraction for the same takeoff gross weight, not to mention the other advances in materials science, air vehicle design, etc. I think both F-22 and F-23 would have been roughly similar in empty weight (obviously there's a deal of uncertainty with the F-23 since it never went through EMD). The Raptor itself should have had better fuel fraction than it has now, but cost saving measures during EMD reduced fuel loads, and the production aircraft still have provisions for additional internal fuel tanks although I suspect that reactivating them now would be cost prohibitive.

I would think that the NGAD PCA would need to have sufficient combat radius to reach Taiwan while operating from the Second Island Chain installations, which would indicate a combat radius of at least 1,500 nmi, likely with a portion of it in supersonic cruise in order to improve sortie generation and also help with human factors (i.e. mission duration).

 

[bring_it_on]

which would indicate a combat radius of at least 1,500 nmi, likely with a portion of it in supersonic cruise in order to improve sortie generation and also help with human factors (i.e. mission duration).

I think that is a reasonable start. The Air Force wants not just more range (compared to F-22) but also better payload. I am not sure how they achieve both of those things while retaining raptor like supercruise performance and form factor. At this stage, I would assume that it would considerably larger in size than the F-22A but that's just an educated guess.

 

[icyplanetnhc (Steve)]

Payload can be offloaded to CCAs as a way to rein in size, weight, and cost. I think Kendall, et. al has alluded to something like this when discussing the rationale behind the NGAD pause.

 

[bring_it_on]

Payload can be offloaded to CCAs as a way to rein in size, weight, and cost.

Right. But I was focused on what the AF put out to industry last year in the RFP and what we've been investing in actually developing over the past many years. Kendall said a lot of things including wanting NGAD to cost the same as F-35...Until the AF comes out and says they are extending the pause on NGAD and starting over with a new/fresh set of requirements for the manned element, I'm assuming that they are going to go ahead with what they asked industry to bid on (if anything at all). Which as per CQ Brown is something that has greater payload and range relative to F-22A.

 

[_Del_]

Payload can be offloaded to CCAs as a way to rein in size, weight, and cost. I think Kendall, et. al has alluded to something like this when discussing the rationale behind the NGAD pause.

Ideally, one funds multiple CCA types. Some that only need to carry munitions. Some that will need power generation for EW and/or sensors. Everything does not need to be a jack of all trades to be valuable anymore, and the SWAP-C and other requirements for all the different roles are diverse enough to favour smaller, simpler "nodes" in the networked FoS. Also helps that such an approach tends toward cheaper and faster production.

I'm still not convinced the NGAD-mission needs an NGAD-airframe. Or that it needs to be more complex than the F-35. Newer engines, airframe optimized around a shallower bay, better data fusion from the ABMS, eventually newer weapons -- altogether could still represent a more valuable NGAD node than the F-35 at similar price.

NGAD is a mission. Everything is going to be "part of" NGAD. It isn't in the strictest sense "a new shiny, do-everything 6th generation manned fighter".


Regardless, they are still spending foolish amounts of money on projects they shouldn't instead of procuring things that actually work.

 

[Josh_TN]

Regarding the second island chain - if we are talking about an F22 sized (or larger) aircraft with an arrowhead shape, how many airfields realistically can handle that? Maybe 3-4? That is not going to be a STOL ish design.

 

[Ainen]

Regarding the second island chain - if we are talking about an F22 sized (or larger) aircraft with an arrowhead shape, how many airfields realistically can handle that? Maybe 3-4? That is not going to be a STOL ish design.

Realistically, first chain-based smaller fighter is far more attractive. For more - tanker(and heavy stealthy tanker is needed in any case).

 

[NMaude]

The Gates decision to stop the F-22 line production was realy a good idea.....

That turned out to be a fantastically shortsighted idea, the USAF now finds itself with an inadequate number of F-22s with a significant number of them already obsolescent.

 

[Kat Tsun]

The U.S. does not need to equal Chinese production. It just has to produce sufficient capability to destroy < 100 ro/ro and car carriers and about a dozen cruisers, three dozen destroyers, and a similar number of frigates. The CSIS wargame, the most recent open source exercise I am aware of, generally had this entire force devastated in three weeks in most of its couple dozen scenarios (generally with very high U.S. casualties as well, of course). The U.S. is adopting an asymmetrical strategy of sea denial as opposed to its traditional position of sea control. The question is not how many U.S. ships and planes will survive the effort or how many sausages the U.S. can crank out; the question is whether the PLA can force a change to the status quo or not. The default setting is the region being aligned with the US and the PRC having to make a major military commitment to alter it.

The more interesting scenario is that the US leaves without firing a shot.

No money , no win over China

If the cost of winning is the US defaulting on its debt it's probably acceptable to just step aside and let China try running the world. A realistic option might be transferring the GBSD, GBI, and silo fields to Space Force. Make the USAF a purely atmospheric force instead.

 

[publiusr]

Would the technology behind KKVs fit well into air-to-air missiles?

Mass produce two versions--one for space use--the other for missiles that fighters can carry.

 

[dark sidius]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Vf44cMQ6BU

Interesting design for the fighter

 

[Kat Tsun]

Would the technology behind KKVs fit well into air-to-air missiles?

Mass produce two versions--one for space use--the other for missiles that fighters can carry.

...you just rip the warhead out and give AMRAAM a longer motor.

 

[dark sidius]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/lockheed-stock-china-f-35-downgrade-ffba77af

Time to get decision on NGAD.

 

[forlornhope]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Vf44cMQ6BU

Interesting design for the fighter

Screenshots from the video of said fighter (apologize for the lower resolution).

 

[dark sidius]

Screenshots from the video of said fighter (apologize for the lower resolution).

A design with three intake too like the J-36..... Never seen this before

 

[Moose]

It's popped up before, just without much fuss. I think someone from NG even said "this is just a stand-in" at some trade show or another.

 

[Byeman]

Would the technology behind KKVs fit well into air-to-air missiles?

You mean the maneuvering warheads of KKVs? No, too heavy and aeroforces interfere.

 

[forlornhope]

Would the technology behind KKVs fit well into air-to-air missiles?

Mass produce two versions--one for space use--the other for missiles that fighters can carry.

Maybe like NCAADE with an ARH seeker?

 

[joshjosh]

Is that enough though? Wasn't there a statement made a while back by Gen CQ Brown or someone else stating that NGAD would not need tanker support to accomplish mission? That would certainly suggest a radius significantly greater than 1-1.2K nmi. Perhaps 2 to 3 times that. But I haven't been able to dig that statement up so perhaps I'm confusing with something else.

SECDEF Austin said at the B-21 Raider unveiling that "it won't have to be based in theater to hold any target at risk." I don't recall seeing a similar statement about NGAD

What you are suggesting is to shrink the USAF down to a significantly smaller force than what it is. Perhaps down by half. If that's the case then yes, stopping F-35 buy at say 700-800 and letting legacy fleets retire so we can have a much smaller, but qualitatively superior force makes sense. Perhaps CCA's will allow them to build it back up. But that's not a very proven thing at the moment and might not be until we invest some serious funds into that effort (AF wants $3 Bn for CCA's in 2028). so is very much a 'TBD'.

I don't really think this would make sense. So many systems in recent decades were stopped short of the intended procurement. We look back on those today with regret. F-22, B-2, F-18, etc. The bulk of the development work on F-35 is done, and the block IV today is very capable. We need to keep buying it. Plus, it can still participate in the NGAD family of systems - it's already planned to be a CCA controller.

 

[bring_it_on]

I don't really think this would make sense. So many systems in recent decades were stopped short of the intended procurement. We look back on those today with regret. F-22, B-2, F-18, etc. The bulk of the development work on F-35 is done, and the block IV today is very capable. We need to keep buying it. Plus, it can still participate in the NGAD family of systems - it's already planned to be a CCA controller.

I totally get it and agree. The F-35 isn't going anywhere though I am sure they will stop well short of the 1.6K plug they've been using for a couple of decades.

But the point is still that if there are no more funds forthcoming and the AF unable to keep pace with rapidly advancing technology, then someone has to suggest a path forward even if that means something radical. You can't just keep on the path they are presently on which is neither modernizing nor rapidly fielding new technologies in core mission areas. It's like the worst of both worlds.

 

[joshjosh]

The CCA program is a good start towards radical new ideas. Fostering GA and Anduril so we have more competition is a good move. Unfortunately, if we want a next-gen fighter from Lockheed or Northrop, it will just cost more money. There is no way around it, we have to spend more. Perhaps with the PLA's unveiling of their new toys, congress will agree. On the other hand, the incoming administration is led by someone who seems to think a tiny quadcopter can do the F-35 mission, so maybe not.

Honestly, I'm not sure how valuable the Sentinel program is. Does nuclear sponge theory really work when your opponents will still have enough warheads left over for all your major population centers? Cutting Sentinel and moving to a two-leg 'triad' would save $160B and counting. Half of that could be invested into the submarine industrial base to get Columbia faster and in greater quantities, and simultaneously help with capacity for Aukus. The rest could get invested into NGAD. I know this is just a fantasy, congress won't allow it, but there it is.

Realistically, if the DOD can reduce the procurement fraud by structuring contracts to be constantly competed, we might get more bang for our buck. They've done this with JLTV, and they could do it with NGAD.

But, yeah... NGAD is going to cost more money, and we have to spend this money. Either that or just give up at the whole super power thing.

 

[NMaude]

Honestly, I'm not sure how valuable the Sentinel program is.

It's very valuable as the Minuteman III is in urgent need of retirement due to its' advanced age (The MMIII was originally supposed to be retired in 1980 IIRC), the MMIII design is ANCIENT!

 

[Scott Kenny]

So as far as NGAD and F/A-XX are concerned, who do you have your money on and why?

LockMart for NGAD, because NG dropped out and Boeing is a fustercluck.

NG for FAXX. Boeing is a fustercluck, and NG dropped out of NGAD to focus on FAXX.

Honestly, I'm not sure how valuable the Sentinel program is. Does nuclear sponge theory really work when your opponents will still have enough warheads left over for all your major population centers? Cutting Sentinel and moving to a two-leg 'triad' would save $160B and counting. Half of that could be invested into the submarine industrial base to get Columbia faster and in greater quantities, and simultaneously help with capacity for Aukus. The rest could get invested into NGAD. I know this is just a fantasy, congress won't allow it, but there it is.

The problem is that there's only so many welders willing to work in shipyards that can get a security clearance.

There's only so many nuclear-certified welders available, and it takes a year or more to get new welders certified and cleared. (This is for the long-lead items in the engineroom.)

There is just flat no way to speed up the process of clearing new workers.

 

[NMaude]

LockMart for NGAD, because NG dropped out and Boeing is a fustercluck.

NG for FAXX. Boeing is a fustercluck, and NG dropped out of NGAD to focus on FAXX.

This and several other reasons why McBoeing is in the doghouse with several federal government agencies (It's well past time that Boeing's corporate culture was purged of the pernicious McDonnell Aircraft Corporation culture legacy it inherited from McD).

 

[Ozair]

Honestly, I'm not sure how valuable the Sentinel program is. Does nuclear sponge theory really work when your opponents will still have enough warheads left over for all your major population centers? Cutting Sentinel and moving to a two-leg 'triad' would save $160B and counting. Half of that could be invested into the submarine industrial base to get Columbia faster and in greater quantities, and simultaneously help with capacity for Aukus. The rest could get invested into NGAD. I know this is just a fantasy, congress won't allow it, but there it is.

That would ruin a heap of movie plots though if the US no longer had a land based missile force...

Being serious, makes a lot of sense to me. Fixed land based sites don't make a lot of sense today. The US would probably get better value out of space based kinetic projectiles. Get Musk to deploy some bigger satellites launched via starship that host the projectiles and then the USAF/Space Force could move to precision orbital deterrence without the fallout while remaining backed up by the subs/bombers.

But, yeah... NGAD is going to cost more money, and we have to spend this money. Either that or just give up at the whole super power thing.

I'm still sitting on the fence between manned NGAD or just going all in on CCA and using F-35 as the primary control platform. So much faster to iterate across the CCA and continue building and upgrading a manned platform that the US is already investing in.

 

[Scott Kenny]

That would ruin a heap of movie plots though if the US no longer had a land based missile force...

Being serious, makes a lot of sense to me. Fixed land based sites don't make a lot of sense today. The US would probably get better value out of space based kinetic projectiles. Get Musk to deploy some bigger satellites launched via starship that host the projectiles and then the USAF/Space Force could move to precision orbital deterrence without the fallout while remaining backed up by the subs/bombers.

How much weight can SpaceX lift in a single go? You need a pretty impressive weight to stay above Mach 9 at impact, as modern conical RBAs slow to about Mach 2 at impact.

And even Mach 9 is simply "KE equal to your weight in TNT" levels of boom.

I'm still sitting on the fence between manned NGAD or just going all in on CCA and using F-35 as the primary control platform. So much faster to iterate across the CCA and continue building an upgrading a manned platform that the US is already investing in.

F-35s don't have the range needed for the Pacific. They'd have to fly from Korea or Japan, both of which are firmly inside ballistic and cruise missile range of China.

 

[Ozair]

How much weight can SpaceX lift in a single go? You need a pretty impressive weight to stay above Mach 9 at impact, as modern conical RBAs slow to about Mach 2 at impact.

Starship is capable of 150,000 kgs into orbit. Per the USAF proposal in 2003 a kinetic projectile would be approx 8000kg so a system could potentially be hosted on starship in a single hop.

And even Mach 9 is simply "KE equal to your weight in TNT" levels of boom.

The USAF proposal expected it to be slightly more but close enough.

F-35s don't have the range needed for the Pacific. They'd have to fly from Korea or Japan, both of which are firmly inside ballistic and cruise missile range of China.

If you pair them with NGAS and go all in on USAF XA100/101 then the range becomes less of an issue.

The other side of it is killing runways indefinitely is very hard work and I expect current stocks of Chinese cruise and ballistic missiles wouldn't make it past the first week of the campaign.

 

[Scott Kenny]

Starship is capable of 150,000 kgs into orbit. Per the USAF proposal in 2003 a kinetic projectile would be approx 8000kg so a system could potentially be hosted on starship in a single hop.

Sounds like ~10-12x RFGs plus their bus/aiming system to me!

If you pair them with NGAS and go all in on USAF XA100/101 then the range becomes less of an issue.

Except that the USAF isn't willing to lose the engine commonality with the F-35Bs, you'd need to design an adaptive engine that plays nice with the LiftFan.

The other side of it is killing runways indefinitely is very hard work and I expect current stocks of Chinese cruise and ballistic missiles wouldn't make it past the first week of the campaign.

It's not hard if you're willing to throw nukes around. A 10MT surface blast will delete the entire airfield, replacing it with a crater.

 

[4decaa]

A design with three intake too like the J-36..... Never seen this before

just looks like some artists had some fun - exhaust looks like it's straight out of Stealth (2005)
I think it's important to never take 99% of contractor marketing material as a 'reveal' of something that hasn't been seen yet. B-21 appearing under cloth sheet with cranked kite BS design is a good example of that, and I see a lot of speculation about random things we see in NG or Lockmart videos (esp in this thread).

So, no - the next big thing isn't going to be seen in some CGI youtube video - it's gonna be in real life. My bet for NGAD? FAXX? heat distorted spotter photos from ground tests or a first flight, or some type of b-21 like reveal.