US/Russian Military Interventions in Syria

phrenzy

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Do you have a good link? Mostly wondering what they fired at who, hopefully something old against ISIS in syria is and it's the last we'll hear about it, the Iranians have been surprisingly cooperative through the whole thing even though they are fighting the West on one side and against on the other.
I'm sure it'll turn up on one of the daily bulk emails that I get loaded down with in my email but I'm tracking this and collecting sources from as close to the dates as they happen. Hopefully someone can pull some useful lessons out of the quagmire so I'm trying stay on top of who knew what when (or thoughtht they knew), what was used or the thought to be used add what the responses were in escilation/de-escalation. Might be a paper on proportional response or operations in contested Multi-state conflicts eventually.

Can't help but feel this is going to break out in Ukraine again, anyone know much of a professor Almond of the crisis research centre? (,Brit) I know I've seen the name before and I've been him give interviews most recenty on RT but I've been reading his thoughts on the situation which is seem fairly up to date, but I don't really know him or hits organisations reputation.
 

phrenzy

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Was it this Shehab-3 launch in Deir el-Zour? The revolutionary guards are sending a pretty major signal with that... In response to a terror attack they strike with one of their premier semi strategic weapons? If they're not sending a signal for their intentions in Iraq after this fight is over I don't know what they're thinking, they're already causing a headache over the nuclear deal and obviously from the article below they've got Israeli attention in a big way. If Israeli intelligence is briefing the media they're trying to pull levers in other places. The Iranian's are looking for this attention but with everything that's happening I don't quite get why.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-launches-missile-strike-into-syria-for-tehran-attacks/
 

bobbymike

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http://www.realcleardefense.com/2017/06/20/idf_prepares_for_future_of_war_in_region_294180.html

Isn't Armageddon speculated to start in the Middle East :eek:
 

phrenzy

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It's a mountain in Israel, Har (or Tel) Magiddo, not a time, but yes as scarily close to this mess, in fact I bet US, Russian and Syrian aircraft can get a good look at it with sensors at the right altitude.

(Had to edit it after looking at a map again its a little further inland from the Syrian border than I thought, but your talking some number of nautical miles that's not completely unrealistic).
 

phrenzy

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Who's genius idea was this? If they didn't know Shogyu was taking a flight then we're all lost and if they did, well there taking a much harder line than we thought. Have to wonder at what level an order to buzz Sergey's personal jet gets given?
https://youtu.be/OwYPyCT8lV0

*Edit* got my Sergey' and Sergeys mixed up. I know this worked out for Yamimoto, but wasn't there a world war first?
 

Orionblamblam

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phrenzy said:
Who's genius idea was this?

What, intercepting the other guy's planes? Happens all the time. A US plane was intercepted by a Russian plane at a distance of something like five *feet* a few days ago.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/20/politics/russian-su-27-five-feet-from-us-aircraft/index.html
 

phrenzy

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Was James Mattis on board flying into or out of a potential Warzone?
 

Arjen

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I understand Mr Shoigu's aircraft and his escort were flying without communication with traffic control.
The NATO aircraft came to see what was up.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40358528
A Nato official later said in a statement that the alliance "can confirm that three Russian aircraft, including two fighters, were tracked over the Baltic Sea earlier today (Wednesday)".
"As the aircraft did not identify themselves or respond to air traffic control, Nato fighter jets scrambled to identify them, according to standard procedures. Nato has no information as to who was on board. We assess the Russian pilots' behaviour as safe and professional."
The official added that the Nato jet had not been chased away by the Russian aircraft.
 

phrenzy

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That may well have been, but if NSA, NRO, DIA, CIA or any number of other possible alphabet soup players, hell even the USAF itself, can't tell when the Russian defence minister is taking a flight just because he didn't check in with ATC then we have problems. I don't think that's the case, which means either they can't disseminate the information (I'm which case we have problems), or they deliberately buzzed the aircraft which is a bigger problem because now you have what frankly amounts to a psyop against the Russian defence minister during the most complex and potentially dangerous situation between super and middleweight Powers in decades. Is this really the way to re-establish communications too get out of each other's easy in Raqqa, Shoigu must feel at least a little personally targeted and the world doesn't even know who's giving the orders.

I really hope this is part of a very well thought out and calculating plan, because from what I see the state department can't even keep up with military events and some people don't know if the commander in chief is giving these orders and in consultation with who or if the generals are running the show in Syria when the wrong mission could end in direct conflict in any one of a half dozen countries on at least 2 continents.

Remember when we were all worried about the South China sea, wasn't that nice?

Oh and we don't even have a DPRK thread and the South is up in arms, also aren't we still fighting the Taliban? I asked a few people today, they couldn't remember. Anyone notice that the Saudi king just changed the line of succession to his 31 year old son yesterday, what, a couple weeks after signing a $110 billion arms contract. Plus Qatar, the revolutionary guards essentially co-occupying Iraq and Israel on tenderhooks. This is going to be like a 5 year development and deployment holiday for China, assuming they don't take this chance to get into the ROC or build a bridge too a new island too far or think there's a Japanese island they want to build a casino on.

Oh and Ukraine is flaring up again:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/21/russia-cancels-us-talks-ukraine-sanctions
 

Arjen

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When a non-responding aircraft turns up in crowded airspace, aircraft are sent in to investigate. That happens all over Europe - including the Baltic.
 

phrenzy

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I'm well aware, I'm just saying this is probably the second most important Russian guy at the table at the moment, if this happened because of a comms SNAFU to air force 2 and it was an su-27 intercepting like this on it's way too a meeting with a NTO ally, would any of us consider it a simple routine mistake and would the su-27 get to fly away? We certainly wouldn't be framing it like this was routine.

Edit: oh and even if it did just light up radar as an escorted medium body plane that suggested a standard basically non threatening monitoring mission, why is the Russian defence Minister going somewhere in a hurry on a non declared, no comms mission to God knows where over the Baltic, that's a question with answering in itself.
 

sferrin

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phrenzy said:
Who's genius idea was this? If they didn't know Shogyu was taking a flight then we're all lost and if they did, well there taking a much harder line than we thought. Have to wonder at what level an order to buzz Sergey's personal jet gets given?
https://youtu.be/OwYPyCT8lV0

*Edit* got my Sergey' and Sergeys mixed up. I know this worked out for Yamimoto, but wasn't there a world war first?

That F-16 is hardly "buzzing" the other plane. It was flying in formation. This is "buzzing" a plane (recklessly):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLhWxY2FsuE
 

phrenzy

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Even a well controlled intercept when ,you know there two unresponsive Su-27s in escort with the Russian defence minister involved it's serious. But, you're quite correct, my nomenclature was hyperbole.

I'm just thinking a little out loud, I should try and use more accurate and appropriate language when things are beginning to get genuinely serious. I still can't figure the logic of the Shehab launch, why the Russian defence minister was flying in an unresponsive, and undeclared (apparently) flight that both sides likely knew about but both decided to enter into brinksmanship and a potential terrible international incident over. There's no apparent diplomatic or military necessity for the secrecy just too get a a reaction out of the states you could send any mid level diplomat or more likely high ranking military officer. So he was obviously headed somewhere important in a hurry.

I'd be very curious to hear from RT to know where he was supposedly going.*edit*, he was going to Kaliningrad via the neutral Baltic sea route.
 

Arjen

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phrenzy said:
I really hope this is part of a very well thought out and calculating plan
Prepare to be disappointed. On the other hand: flying over the Baltic dumb and deaf, then complaining about the air patrol showing up - that's silly.
 

phrenzy

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Kind of my point, if it was just aircrew trying to get some patriot data, no biggy, but given the passenger a middair today could have been a half trillion dollar multi decade diplomatic nightmare on a good day after the events just of this month. Plus, he was on his way to Kaliningrad, I don't have a flight plan but last time I checked you could get there via overland air lanes in Russia, no reason to fly over the Baltic sea in range of any number of itchy SAMs. Unless he was coming via another country West to East, but then with a millitary escort like that without ATC in the host country? And wouldn't that be deserving of even open source news items? Sketchy all round. I thought At least the US and Russia has enough sense for something like this to be avoided with something as basic as a civilian UHF radio.
 

phrenzy

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What was I saying about Har Megiddo?

Israeli airstrikes following Syrian government fire hitting Israeli territory. Syrian government release insinuated they were timed with anti Assad rebels and that Israel was in collision with them.

Link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israel-hits-syrian-military-targets-after-errant-fire-reaches-its-side-of-the-golan-heights/2017/06/24/44d5aa98-5910-11e7-840b-512026319da7_story.html?utm_campaign=EBB%2006.26.2017&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_term=.fab0e9632595
 

phrenzy

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Anyone want to help me add to the players? What are we up to, a 7 at conflict? Or is it 5, or 9?

Issei strikes Syrian positions for the 5th time this week.

https://youtu.be/j5sIM6B-1S4

Just the a start of a list:

Hezbollah
Iran
The Peshmerga
The PKK
Turkey
The USA
Iraqi government forces
Australia
other NATO countries
FSA(and splinter groups or whatever the Pentagon is calling the "lliance" this week)
ISIS
Assad government forces
pro-Assad paramilitary
Russia

Who's missing? Some independent Iraqi tribal groups? Anti Assad fighters not in the western alliance? Radical anti Assad forces not affiliated with ISIS?

I'm up to 15, but that's just the top of the my head, I'm certain there's at least another 5 we can find for a nice round number.
 

Rickshaw

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Peoples' Front for the Liberation of Syria...
Popular Front for the Liberation of Syria...
Front for the Popular Liberation of Syria...
Liberation Front for the People of Syria...
Front populaire pour la libération de la Syrie.

All a bunch of splitters to me... ;)
 

phrenzy

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Where will the fetus gestate? In a box?

I'm other news (now that extra human fetus gestation is practicable);

Iran is shelling the Kurds in North Iraq. If they can marginalise the PKK the Kurds should have every aspect of western support for a state. They're about as honest and hard working as players come in the region, the West let them down again and again and they keep doing the right thing (regionally relatively speaking they're basically Sweden)...

Iranian cross border shelling in northern Iraq against the Kurds:
https://www.voanews.com/a/kurds-accuse-iran-of-cross-border-shelling-in-northern-iraq/3926867.html?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2007.05.2017&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief

Was going to put together an IRBM regional threat analysis... If anyone has any information that I might not find on Wikipedia about systems deployed by any of the countries embroiled in this clusterfluff it would be appreciated.

The Swedish open source intelligence program does a great job with their Russia watch and I'm thinking of contacting them.

I think if it's not a bad "accidental" shoot down, then it will be a ballistic missile laugh that turns this low intensity conflict into WW2.5.

Not that anyone is watching what the Chinese are doing in the straight or what the North Koreans are doing at the moment...
 

phrenzy

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Good to know the tillerman is stearing the ship.
From FP's morning Roundup:

Tillerson Ready to Let Russia Decide Assad’s Fate: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told the U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres during a private State Department meeting last week that Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad’s fate now lies in Russia’s hands, in a scoop from FP’s Colum Lynch and Robbie Gramer. Tillerson’s assurances to Guterres could signal the Trump administration’s willingness to let Russia decide Syria’s fate while it gets tunnel vision on defeating ISIS.
 

tequilashooter

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another event? its boring about time. https://tass.com/defense/1357773

MOSCOW, November 3. /TASS/. Two F-16 Israeli tactical fighter jets delivered a missile strike from the Golan Heights at Syrian government army’s logistics support facilities. No one was hurt, Vadim Kulit, deputy chief of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties in Syria, said on Wednesday.

"At about 02:00 a.m. on November 3, two F-16 tactical fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force delivered a missile strike from the area of the Golan Heights, outside Syria’s airspace, at logistics support facilities of the Syrian government forces near the settlement of al-Qiswa in the Damascus governorate," he said.

According to Kulit, the strike incurred insignificant material damage. "No losses among Syrian servicemen were reported," he added.

He also said that members of the pseudo-humanitarian organization White Helmets are plotting another provocation in Syria’s Idlib governorate. "The Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Opposing Parties has received data that members of the pseudo-humanitarian organization White Helmets are plotting a provocation with an aim of accusing government forces of delivering indiscriminate strikes at civilian facilities and civilians," he said.

According to Kulit, people are being recruited in the settlement of Kafr Kermin and Sarmada in the Idlib governorate to take part in fake a fake video report. "It is planned to engage English-language reporters, who have arrived in the Idlib de-escalation zone to highlight the provocation," he added.

Apart from that, he said that four shelling attacks from positions of the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra (outlawed in Russia) were reported from the Idlib de-escalation zone during the past day.

The Russian reconciliation center continues to fulfill assigned tasks after the completion of the military campaign in Syria. The center’s officers regularly travel around the country's liberated areas to assess the humanitarian situation. The main efforts of the Russian military are now focused on assistance to the refugees returning to their homes and evacuation of civilians from de-escalation zones.
 

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