US/Russian Military Interventions in Syria

Arian

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SOC said:
Arian said:
Could be. I find it strange that 4 launchers look different than the other 4 clearly identifiable Sa-6 launchers there, even though they are only a few meters away from each other. One looking different due to angle or image processing, but 4?

It's likely due to overcompensating for terrain. Bad processing can cause funny things to show up, like wavy runways and the like.

At any rate, the Russian video released from the UAV disproves the whole "23 missiles hit Shayrat" nonsense. I first looked at post-strike imagery, calculated the number of impact points, and then used the UAV footage to find others that weren't as obvious. Yeah, way more than 23 hits. Russian propaganda might not be as completely hilarious as, say, Iranian propaganda, but it's equally useless. Remember when they tried to pass off a faked satellite image as evidence showing a Ukrainian FLANKER shot down the Malaysian airliner?

Where are Syria's Buk sites located? Anyone locate them, so we can take a look?

Multiple Pechora-2M and Sa-3 sites can be found along the path the missiles supposedly followed, and those can be clearly identified. But finding Buk sites seems hard.
 

SOC

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Buk sites are located along the coastline and near Damascus. What path did the missiles supposedly follow? Coming in at 100 m, if they overflew Lebanon they stay out of range of any Syrian or Russian SAM, including the S-400 at Humaymim.
 

Arian

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SOC said:
Buk sites are located along the coastline and near Damascus. What path did the missiles supposedly follow? Coming in at 100 m, if they overflew Lebanon they stay out of range of any Syrian or Russian SAM, including the S-400 at Humaymim.

Supposedly one wing flew over Lebanon and one wing flew from Syria between Tartus and Lebanese border.
 

Grey Havoc

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If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.
 

sferrin

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Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.

Seems like a dumb thing to lie about. It's not as though it can't be verified.
 

Arian

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Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.

They weren't. So don't worry. All is already forgotten.
 

Rickshaw

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sferrin said:
Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.

Seems like a dumb thing to lie about. It's not as though it can't be verified.

It smacks of not being a military planned operation. The report was that a rocket was fired which contained the CW agent. The military tends to believe in the use of firepower and would have fired multiple rockets in order to saturate an area with sufficient strength of Sarin to overcome any defences/shelter that the target might have had...
 

starviking

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Kadija_Man said:
sferrin said:
Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.

Seems like a dumb thing to lie about. It's not as though it can't be verified.

It smacks of not being a military planned operation. The report was that a rocket was fired which contained the CW agent. The military tends to believe in the use of firepower and would have fired multiple rockets in order to saturate an area with sufficient strength of Sarin to overcome any defences/shelter that the target might have had...

We would have to factor in how many chemical munitions the Su-22 can carry. Additionally, looking at the response a 'small' attack has had, a large attack might have drawn a more serious response. Assad was likely 'testing the waters'.
 

mrmalaya

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The one downside of the internet is that it exposes people to all the conspiracies of the world.

In the UK we have plenty of people who rate RT and Sputnik as highly as they rate the domestic media. It is sad, but unfortunately true. Life was I'm sure so much easier when news was digested in one print column snippets.

The instant and creative denunciation of the ability of the US to fire dozens of TLAMs at a target and hit what they were aiming for, is reminiscent of the counter information campaign during the Malaysia Air shoot down.

Life is not simple, but Assad has tested the water before and appears to have done so again.
 

Avimimus

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Lets be honest:

- We don't know what delivery mechanism was used (artillery, artillery rocket, or type of aerial bomb e.g. unitary, aerosol dispersing, or cluster). It isn't even easy to get information on the types of air-dropped delivery mechanisms available to Syria (even though Israeli intelligence believes there are large stockpiles - past chlorine attacks were done using improvised bombs, and even the 2013 Sarin equipped artillery rockets had non-standard warheads).

- I know of a bunch of industrial processes that could lead to similar symptoms if breaches occur. Such a scenario is outwardly plausible until the processes from the factories in the area are known. Similarly, capture of a government stockpile of Sarin is somewhat plausible given how large stockpiles were prior to 2014 and the difficulty deploying it.

- We can'y trust any assessment done in Erdogan's Turkey, which means that only detailed data from the autopsies as examined by 3rd parties could be trust

- The Syrians/Russians claim that there was a second air-attack on the site, which may complicate the picture.

That said, I typically assume the Russian state media is lying (the only question is how much and where) and my personal assumption is that it was some form of nerve gas.

My basic point is that many foreign leaders, and certainly all of the press, have rushed to a consensus on exactly what happened - and we don't really have solid information yet. The U.S. government might have a lot more data of course, as would the Syrian, Turkish, and Russian governments - but it hasn't be released to show a compelling case in terms of evidence.

Some data:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2017/04/10/khan-sheikhoun-chemical-attack-bombed/
 

bobbymike

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NEWS: National Security Council officials just held a background briefing with reporters on the declassified intel assessment of last week's chemical attack on Khan Shaykhun, Syria. Full story coming soon, but a few takeaways:

Sarin confirmed as the nerve agent used via testing on victims as well as symptoms. Secondary responders also suffered exposure symptoms.

Su-22s from Shayrat airfield dropped the sarin on Khan Shaykhun; conventional weapons were dropped about six hours later on hospital treating sarin victims - "no comment" from officials on if Russia did latter.

No ISIS or other terrorists in area have sarin (just mustard gas) - attack was "not a terrorist holding of sarin or a terrorist use of sarin"

WH official on if Russia, present at airfield, knew of sarin attack: "We don't have information on that per se... still looking into that." Adding: "We do think that it is a question worth asking" Russians how they were with Syrian forces at airfield "and did not have knowledge" of the attack in planning/prep stages.

"Leakage inconsistent" with Russians saying sarin came from opposition stocks on ground - "we don't see a building with that chemical residue"

On Syria hoax conspiracy theories: Body of evidence "too massive" for anyone to fabricate. Official added that videos released of attack did correspond with that date, time, location.
 

Arian

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Avimimus said:
- and we don't really have solid information yet.

You don't. Do you think the Pentagon is privy to some information you're not?
 

Avimimus

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Arian said:
Avimimus said:
- and we don't really have solid information yet.

You don't. Do you think the Pentagon is privy to some information you're not?

If you re-read the post I already acknowledged that various governments likely have a lot more information.

I don't include the Pentagon as part of 'we' (I don't work there in case you are mistaken as to who I am). From you're comment I assume you are privy to their information though and can make clear deductions from it?
 

kcran567

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mrmalaya said:
The one downside of the internet is that it exposes people to all the conspiracies of the world.

In the UK we have plenty of people who rate RT and Sputnik as highly as they rate the domestic media. It is sad, but unfortunately true. Life was I'm sure so much easier when news was digested in one print column snippets.

The instant and creative denunciation of the ability of the US to fire dozens of TLAMs at a target and hit what they were aiming for, is reminiscent of the counter information campaign during the Malaysia Air shoot down.

Life is not simple, but Assad has tested the water before and appears to have done so again.

It doesn't look like a very good military strike by Assad unless Assad's goal was to get more negative attention and give the US an excuse to bomb him. Russia/Putin is standing by: "This was a false flag (by the rebels) and there is more to come".
 

sferrin

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kcran567 said:
Russia/Putin is standing by: "This was a false flag and there is more to come".

Well good luck with that. Do you honestly believe Russia would say, "yep, our man Assad gassed those people"?
 

Arian

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Avimimus said:
From you're comment I assume you are privy to their information though and can make clear deductions from it?

No of course not. So I'll differ to those who do. The rest is just pointless (and dangerous, as can be seen) speculation.
 

Triton

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Believe it or don't.

"U.S. Lays Out Case For Assad's Culpability In Chemical Weapons Attack"
by Camila Domonoske
April 11, 20173:46 PM ET

Source:
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/11/523427866/u-s-lays-out-case-for-assads-culpability-in-chemical-weapons-attack

White House officials say the U.S. intelligence community is confident that Syrian President Bashar Assad attacked his own people with chemical weapons on April 4 — and that an alternative explanation offered by Russia is an effort to deflect blame and "confuse the world community."

Senior administration officials "suggested that the attack may have been motivated by rebel gains in the surrounding area, as rebel forces approached a strategic Syrian air base," NPR's Scott Horsley reports.

"They said there was no consensus on whether the Russians were involved in the attack or had foreknowledge of it," he adds.

The attack on the town of Khan Shaykhun killed scores of people, including numerous children. Soon after the strike, experts said that victims' symptoms suggested a toxic chemical was used — specifically the potent nerve agent sarin.

World leaders, including President Trump, immediately accused Assad of using chemical weapons against his own people, again, in violation of international accords. But Russia maintained that a conventional weapons strike by the Assad regime accidentally hit a stockpile of chemical weapons that belonged to rebels or terrorists.

In response to the attack, the U.S. launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles Thursday in a strike targeting a Syrian air base.

Now a declassified report released by the National Security Council reiterates that the U.S. is confident Assad's forces carried out the April 4 chemical attack and lays out the intelligence community's reasoning — without including classified information used in the analysis.

The report says the U.S. relied on "signals intelligence and geospatial intelligence, laboratory analysis of physiological samples collected from multiple victims, as well as a significant body of credible open source reporting."

"We are certain that the opposition could not have fabricated all of the videos and other reporting of chemical attacks," the report reads.

The report says that "pro-opposition social media reports" began suggesting an attack shortly before 7 a.m. local time on April 4, while Russia's explanation maintained an airstrike occurred around noon local time.

There's also video and satellite imagery suggesting the attack hit "in the middle of a street," not a storage depot, the NSC report says. And while ISIS has used some chemical weapons, such as mustard gas, there's no evidence that this attack "involved chemicals in ISIS's possession," the White House says.

The report cites previous Russian attempts at distraction, deflection and obfuscation, identifying a pattern of "attempting to undermine the credibility of its opponents" and bolster the Assad regime.

The report does not come to a conclusion about whether Russia bears culpability in the attack itself — that is, whether Russia had advance knowledge of the attack or cooperated in it. But it states strongly that Moscow was attempting to "create confusion and sow doubt" to distract from the evidence against Assad.

At a White House press briefing on Tuesday, press secretary Sean Spicer said Russia was "isolated" in its support for Syria.

"Russia is on an island," Spicer said. "The facts are on our side."
 

Avimimus

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Interesting.

Does anyone have information on the types of bombs used? I have information for a number of NATO delivery systems, but the data seems to be sparser for the Soviet Union.

Arian said:
Avimimus said:
From you're comment I assume you are privy to their information though and can make clear deductions from it?

No of course not. So I'll differ to those who do. The rest is just pointless (and dangerous, as can be seen) speculation.

Aha. Well, I try not to make it a habit to automatically deffer to foreign governments.
 

Rickshaw

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starviking said:
Kadija_Man said:
sferrin said:
Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.

Seems like a dumb thing to lie about. It's not as though it can't be verified.

It smacks of not being a military planned operation. The report was that a rocket was fired which contained the CW agent. The military tends to believe in the use of firepower and would have fired multiple rockets in order to saturate an area with sufficient strength of Sarin to overcome any defences/shelter that the target might have had...

We would have to factor in how many chemical munitions the Su-22 can carry. Additionally, looking at the response a 'small' attack has had, a large attack might have drawn a more serious response. Assad was likely 'testing the waters'.

Possible and he has now had his fingers burnt by the US response. As a Syrian suggested on the TV News Downunder last night, "So, it's OK to kill Syrians with guns, artillery, bombs but not with nerve gas?"

One bomb/rocket is unusual. It won't provide sufficient concentrations of gas over a large enough area to be effective, according to my manuals on CW use (admittedly they are over 50 years old). CW usage is large quantities quickly to achieve high concentrations before they disperse. This just doesn't smack very well of the use of CW by a military force...
 

Triton

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Was the Assad regime similarly testing the waters when it dropped barrel bombs filled with chlorine gas on Aleppo in 2016? Human Rights Watch documented government helicopters dropping chlorine in residential areas on at least eight occasions between November 17 and December 13, 2016. The dropping of chlorine bombs on the towns of Talmenes in April 2014 and Sarmin in March 2015? Where were the airstrikes and international condemnation then? Seems to me that President Bashar al-Assad expected the international community to continue to do nothing concerning the use of chemical weapons by Syrian forces. Why should he have expected 59 TLAMs for the use of sarin gas on the rebel-held city of Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib province? Why would any reasonable person believe that this incident was a false flag knowing the history of atrocities perpetrated by the Assad regime?
 

Arian

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Triton said:
Why would any reasonable person believe...

That might be the issue, though. Assuming reasonable people are the ones who believe such things.
 

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the last week started with Trump declaring Esad was a brother, but the federal status of Kurds would be accepted when Rakka fell . Syrians said can not do . There was the crime , there were the missiles . A Turkish scholar in Damascus said on the Voice of Russia said Syrians were ready accept whatever financial gains the US wanted but the federal thing can not do . Now , chemicals are barrel bombs are both "banned" . Give land to Kurds and Esad would be the greatest leader on earth , succesfully fighting Jihadist ranks .
 

TsrJoe

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hmm ... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorine#Use_as_a_weapon

'Chlorine gas was also used during the Iraq War in Anbar Province in 2007, with insurgents packing truck bombs with mortar shells and chlorine tanks. The attacks killed two people from the explosives and sickened more than 350. Most of the deaths were caused by the force of the explosions rather than the effects of chlorine since the toxic gas is readily dispersed and diluted in the atmosphere by the blast. In some bombings, over a hundred civilians were hospitalized due to breathing difficulties. The Iraqi authorities tightened security for elemental chlorine, which is essential for providing safe drinking water to the population.[83][84]'
 

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US drops MOAB on Afghanistan tunnel complex. While it is A-Stan did not feel it needed new topic

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/13/us-drops-largest-non-nuclear-bomb-in-afghanistan-after-green-beret-killed.html
 

bobbymike

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https://www.facebook.com/Militarydotcom/videos/10154859185149270/

Video of MOAB drop
 

Void

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sferrin said:
Grey Havoc said:
If it does turn out that the Russians and Syrians were actually telling the truth about that chemical attack, all hell will break lose.

Seems like a dumb thing to lie about. It's not as though it can't be verified.

It is especially easy to verify when RT accidentally posts photos of binary nerve gas canisters at the airfield.
 

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SOC

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The BKF canisters at Shayrat, as marked, hold the AO-2.5RT HE Frag submunitions. Dropped out of RBK-500s or KMGUs.
 

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Yes those containers are for cluster munitions. They seem to be somewhat general containers, that could also hold chemical munitions. But not in this case given their markings.
 

phrenzy

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US fighters have also shot down a few armed Syrian government drones.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/warplane-shoots-armed-drone-syria-170608232312188.html

The Kurdish issue is going to be either the hope or the never end of conflict here assuming there's no flash point between major players.

They've been stable, friendly and the Pesh have been basically reliable and stable. Problem is that Kurdistan isn't just a Iraqi and Syrian issue, the Turks have a big big problem with it, though hopefully that could just mean smaller borders. With the Turks courting outside the EU/NATO/USA it could happen, but they will work real hard to bring them back into the tent.

A stable Kurdish state backed by the West end begrudgingly allowed by Syria and Russia could be an island of peace in the region and allow the West to bypass some of the more politically fluid situations in the big players like Turkey. They'd certainly be happy to host bases for their own protection while the trend is definately going to be pulling (being pushed more like) out of many long standing places. Let's just hope the PKK don't screw it up for the Pesh.

It's going to come down to the Turkish peoples polarisation between Ataturk and Erdogan...

Based on the last 30 years alone I think the Kurds deserve it.
 

phrenzy

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Here's a Military Times summary for a western source, first official fighter kill since Bosnia. Doesn't bode well.
http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/navy-f-a-18e-super-hornet-splashes-syrian-jet-after-it-attacks-us-allies?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2006.20.2017&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief


Edit: on a side note, the reference to advancing a US Zionist agenda and US support for terrorism in the Syrian government statement is worrying terminology. The shoot down could be the start of what everyone was hoping wouldn't happen. Going to be lots of sleepless people in the state department tonight. At the very least this is the thin edge of a scary wedge, let's hope behind the scenes the Russians are doing a better job coordinating or the next shoot down could be the big one.
 

sferrin

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phrenzy said:
or the next shoot down could be the big one.

Doubt it. Many thought it was the end of the world when Turkey shot down that Russian Su-24 and now they're being offered S-400s for sale.
 

phrenzy

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Not arguing, just caught this in an FP morning brief a few minutes ago, apparently an official Russian statement:

" Russia: Russia declared Monday it would treat U.S.-led coalition planes west of the Euphrates river in Syria as targets after the coalition downed a Syrian regime fighter jet Sunday."
 

GTX

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Not exactly "bugging out". Just pausing to see what the situation is.
 

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