Turkey Shoot - Iranian Drone and Missile attack on Israel

It is quite weird indeed. Why on Earth would have Israel lobbed just three F-16's ALBMs at this corner of Iran ? Ok, this is the base of the Tomcats but I'm not sure these planes are the biggest threat to Israel nowadays.

Something is wrong there. I mean, every other strikes of this kind in IDF/AF history (Osirak, Tunis, Syria) were raw, brute efficiency and well defined targets - properly demolished.

But this raid looks like three small missiles lobbed at a remote corner of the iranian desert... WDF ? did they intend to kill camels or desert rats ?
 
Archibald said:
It is quite weird indeed. Why on Earth would have Israel lobbed just three F-16's ALBMs at this corner of Iran ? Ok, this is the base of the Tomcats but I'm not sure these planes are the biggest threat to Israel nowadays.

Something is wrong there. I mean, every other strikes of this kind in IDF/AF history (Osirak, Tunis, Syria) were raw, brute efficiency and well defined targets - properly demolished.

But this raid looks like three small missiles lobbed at a remote corner of the iranian desert... WDF ? did they intend to kill camels or desert rats ?
Click to expand...

The target seems to be an air defense site near the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility. The message seems pretty clear -- "We could have hit Natanz itself but decided not to escalate things."
 
Yeah but as I said, the air defence site doesn't appear to show any damage after the attack. So either they failed to penetrate the SAM batteries defences or missed it. It contrasts with the Nevatim airbase that Israel also intially denied substantially hit, despite the visible craters and scorch marks on sat imagery. Initially releasing the image of a small crater in a disused runway and saying 'that was the extent of the damage' before later revealing more extensive damage. (Image 1 then 2)

WhatsApp_Image_2024-04-14_at_20.03.02_1.jpeg


https://twitter.com/x/status/1779930379291333027
View: https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1779930379291333027?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1779930379291333027%7Ctwgr%5Ea0e859b33b2b07c600518fdce5327a67806e1ac1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fliveblog_entry%2Fidf-says-air-base-hit-in-iran-attack-running-as-usual%2F
 
I'm leaning more towards a combination attack. "Yes, we can reach Natanz. We didn't, because we didn't want to escalate." plus "Now we know where your C&C nodes are, as well as the voices of your senior staff."
 
WatcherZero said:
So quick maths,
170 drones and 30 cruise missiles, all except 5 cruise missiles were intercepted by aircraft before they reached Israel
115-130 ballistic missiles launched "50% failed at launch or in flight and intercepts weren't attempted" so roughly 58-65 effective weapons. US said they destroyed 1 ballistic missile and 7 drones on the ground before they launched. 1 was intercepted by the Patriot battery at Erbil and 6 by offshore US ships. So Israeli defences left to contend with between 50-57 ballistic missiles. 9 Ballistic missiles got through the defences with 4 striking Negev base and 5 striking Nevatim airbase. So thats an Israeli intercept rate of the Ballistic missiles of between 82% - 84.2% and a combined US/Israeli intercept rate of 85.5% - 86%. (plus the 5 cruise missiles intercepted).

Damage was fairly minimal, one unused runway was cratered, several empty storage buildings were destroyed and one C-130 transport was damaged.
Click to expand...

LOL perhaps I should do OSINT. Maariv says the ballistic interception rate was 84%.

www.maariv.co.il

"אתרים נפגעו": טענות על הנזק שגרמה המתקפה האיראנית בישראל

אור פיאלקוב, חוקר מלחמות ישראל וטרור, הציג בשיחה עם "מעריב" טענות שונות שעלו ברשת בנוגע להיקף הנזק לישראל ביום המתקפה, ונתן פרטים נוספים על פגיעות הטילים במטרות ישראליות
www.maariv.co.il
 

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