TurAF fleet structure beyond the mid-2020s

[snne]

With the recent buying spree of foreign stop-gap aircraft by the TurAF Command, many are wondering what else they’re going to procure or if the future of some ongoing indigenous programs is in doubt. We’ve been repeatedly discussing all of this for over two years now, and I think it’s high time someone opens a dedicated thread for it since this topic always leads to derailment of other threads...

So, let’s discuss all of this here

@Radonislav @Combat-Master @Waterballoon @Canardzz @Ainen @Maro.Kyo @EmoBirb @Nart @had @Lacy @Deino @Scott Kenny @flateric @NMaude @FighterJock @Forest Green @siegecrossbow @kqcke for you @Bounce @helmutkohl et al.

I pulled up some quotes:

Turkish MoND has announced today that they've decided to abandon the modernization of 79 jets to Viper level to make them go through the indigenous Özgür mod instead.

This means that roughly 76-77% of TurAF's F-16 fleet is going to be equipped with indigenous GaN AESA radars, avionics and payloads including CMs-ALBMs, AA missiles and EW pods.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1861484026776953224

View: https://x.com/SavunmaSanayiST/status/1861484026776953224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1969440872975466710

View: https://x.com/gonultol/status/1969440872975466710?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1969440872975466710%7Ctwgr%5E0b472510b85fccdb7b07882ad2aaee203404c597%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdefencehub.live%2Fthreads%2Fforeign-policy-geopolitics.3951%2Fpage-311

The negotiations are ongoing, recent news according to Turkish sources say that Turkey is pushing for sovereignty over the Block 70, allowing for integration of Turkish mission computers and munitions. This isn't farfetched request by the Turkish side, Turkey previously leveraged it's Veto power for the admittance of Finland and Sweden to NATO in exchange for sovereignty over block 40/50 (block 30 not binding, due to them being out of contract) - hence why Turkey dropped 78 viper modernisation kits for indigenous modernisation kits.

It's fairly complex, the negotiations likely include F-35 and F110 engines as well, US leveraging Turkey to drop Russian Oil and Gas, which geographically isn't an easy task and likely to increase energy prices in Turkey.

https://www.al-monitor.com/original...n-uks-starmer-ink-11b-eurofighter-deal-ankara

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First shot of a Turkish Typhoon...
(waited 9 months, after the first Qatar speculation surfaced here, to make this wisecrack)

Yet on a more serious note. As already been asked in this thread a few times...
Which aircraft will Qatar and Oman acquire as compensation for their Air Forces?
Typhoon T4s would be the obvious choice (first AESA radar/aircraft for Oman BTW) but I have a question mark about that.
Qatar didn’t look good in the news after the Israeli airstrike last month and the fighters came probably through/over Oman.

Could be a coincidence to make such a change in their air fleet right after that, but maybe not.
And there was this and that rumour a while back. (edited)

The QEAF’s Typhoon T3A configuration includes the ECRS Mk0 radar and PIRATE. Maybe they came to the conclusion, that even the Mk.2 radar wouldn’t be sufficient for their needs any more.
Interesting developments ahead...

It's the initial order, perhaps they will pick up more in the future, perhaps even ECR types like the ones ordered by Germany which would offer an interesting capability.

It's also just one puzzle piece for the Turks, the KAAN and indigenous F-16 upgrades are others. And at the latest KAAN will even out the odds against neighbors and regional rivals with stealth aircraft of their own.

Second-hand jets are scheduled for delivery at the beginning of 2026. The next question on our minds is whether the Turkish-owned F-35s will be coming home in the coming years. The Turkish side has been working hard lately to resolve this...


Historically, Turkish-Omani relations have never been that strong, but Oman just gave up its most capable jets to Turkey, so who knows what will happen in the end. What’s certain is that the Hürjet has found an unexpected opening in the LIFT/LCA market due to its rapid development and the delays in the T-7 project.

And with that, Turkey bids farewell to the monopoly of operating US jets. Should have been a lesson learned from 1974 to be honest, relying on a single country to protect your skies... silly, someone should have been fired from sticking to that doctrine long agooo!

Deliveries of used aircraft starting early 2026? That would be quick! Is this confirmed? Qatari aircraft might be the best option here, question is about training of personnel that does take a while. The Omani Typhoons are pretty much at their delivery standard as far as I know and that's P1Eb FW with M-Scan radar. So an upgrade may take a while. Don't know whether this mix of Omani Block 30N and Qatari Block 50M is a wise option from a configuration management point of view, add future Block 60+ Tranche 4 aircraft and you have 3 configurations of aircraft in a small 44 A/C fleet.

I wonder what TAI and Tubitak feel.
That's a lot of money and commitment for 2025-2030s.
And while original order is a clear emergency gap filler, +20 option IMHO is aimed at them.

Also, political, but seems like literally first time since Suez when UK defense influence in region v. US increased rather than declined.

Good for TAF, though - within a ~year they should get out of their current predicament, and even in 2026(RAF pilots?) situation should be massively more comfortable than second half of 2025.

Honest truth: Kaan is regarded as the "Independence War 2.0" by quite literally everyone in Turkey, with absolutely no opposition to it, not even the tiniest. It’s one of the few topics on which both sides of the political spectrum are united.

The TurAF had planned to induct over 250 Kaans over its lifetime (i.e, 20 years), even before the F-35 procurement program -originally set for 116+ jets- was derailed. It was also expected (before the indigenous radar for the F-16s began its development) that Turkey would eventually upgrade its F-16 fleet to Block 70 standard, which didn’t turn out that way. In 2023, TurAF signed a deal to modernize its entire F-16B30, B40, and B50 fleet through the Özgür program, with the last jet scheduled for delivery in 2030.

If anything, all of this will increase the number of Kaans the TurAF will eventually procure.

So, there’s no competition whatsoever. The Kaan will be available starting in Q4 2028/Q1 2029, but the TurAF urgently needs any fresh additions it can get, like, yesterday yesterday.

Remember, the Kaan program was initiated to replace Turkey's entire F-16 fleet (~240-270 aircraft) indigenously.

There’s also the light-fighter-like drone Kizilelma, which is nearing the end of its testing (starting LRIP) and is set to officially enter service early next year. It is equipped with the same radar found on the newly modernized F-16 Özgürs (MURAD-100A 1152 GaN TRM radar), with options for the Karat IRST and Toygun EOTS. Additionally, TAI’s Anka-3 will become available for deep-strike missions around the same time.

So, in fact, the TurAF will soon start growing rapidly in numbers, and it wouldn’t be crazy to imagine an eventual fleet size of around 450 by the late 2030s or early 2040s.

Hopefully I’ve cleared things up a bit, since this topic keeps coming up. Remember, we’re talking about NATO’s second-largest air force here, guys... And it has never been this weak before.

I don't disagree with the major points you brought up, but comparing it with the Altay program or the Gripen C/E (or the Eurofighter, for that matter) is not an apt comparison.

Again, the issue is that the TurAF is frankly six years late in ordering new jets. They need all the jets they can get their hands on, and this won't end with the Eurofighter deal either. They will keep doing everything they can to receive 6 Turkish-owned and 34 new F-35s as well.

The issue regarding the engine supply for the LRIP batch, as it turns out, was misconveyed by MoFA Fidan. It wasn't blocked; the US State Department hasn't submitted it to Congress yet and is seemingly waiting for the right time to pass it without issue.

We've been told so many times that the testing schedule will rapidly accelerate with P1 onwards, and this intense schedule will be carried out with multiple prototypes at the same time, just like the KF-21. The IWBs will be present in the Block 10 LRIP delivery configuration, but will be blocked by the software, meaning the IWB tests will continue until the Block 20 delivery, which is set for 2030.

With all of these details in mind, delivering the first LRIP units of Kaan in Q4 2028/Q1 2029 as per the official plan seems actually quite possible to me. I do anticipate possible minor delays, but that won’t have much impact on the timeline anyway.

GTU-0/P0 was rolled out right around the CDR review and was flown twice to test the flight control software of the real prototypes. Visually, it’s not much different from the real production-representative P1; the only difference is the intakes and the fact that the P1 is being equipped with actual mission-capable equipment like sensors, countermeasures, mission computers, and so on.

Wdym? Turkey's entire fighter fleet is made up of F-16s; there are only about 20 F-4E 2020 Terminators left, and they're on their way out anyway.

Diversifying aircraft types in your air force is only natural when you are developing your own fighter jets, and their maintenance is much easier than maintaining foreign aircraft. Turkey's developing Kaan, Hürjet, Kızılelma, and Anka-3 at the same time, with the latter three about to enter service soon.

Up until about 12 years ago, the TurAF always had a fleet strength of roughly around 350 aircraft. Nowadays, it's down to about 250 total.

But they are also still pursuing 40 F-35, an additional 40 F-16 which wont start being delivered until 2030 and have/will have bought 44 Eurofighter with options for another 20. They bought 50 upgrade kits for F-16 to be installed on 40 aircraft before cancelling the request for an additional 79 switching to the domestic upgrade programme.

Chasing fresh orders for three different foreign aircraft some of which wont even be introduced until after the KAAN is supposed to enter service isn't showing much faith in its domestic development, likewise TAI said they expected to manufacture 300 Hurjets by 2030 of which 100 would be for Turkey but Turkey has reduced its initial order from 17 to 16 and removed its order for four Block 0 instead switching them to more polished Block 1's (saying you are getting them a year earlier is meaningless when the aircraft itself is running 3-4 years behind its 2018 schedule). Are we seriously expecting orders for another 84 by 2030?

I don't know where to begin... You better check your sources from now on...

TAI expects to produce 300 Hürjets over the entire duration of the program. There has been no reduction in orders or change in configuration either; those initial 16 aircraft will go directly to the Turkish Stars aerobatic team, followed by a T-38M replacement order.


Second-hand jets are reportedly going to arrive in early 2026.




Again, TurAF's actual target is the F-35, and they would much rather buy F-35s than F-16s. But the Americans have basically told them, 'Procure the F-16s first, and we'll see about the F-35 later.'...

Thats patently false as the application to procure the 40 F-16's and a further 79 upgrade kits for $23bn was made in 2021, long before Trump came along and said he might sell them F-35 after all (Biden was never going to give a rival of Israel F-35's), then last year they opted to cancel the 79 upgrade kits six month after completing the deal for them saying they would do $1bn of domestic upgrades instead. The Turkish government this year said its requirement was for 120 transitional fighters, 40 of each. One thing it did disagree on was it wanted the F-16 to be assembled under license in Turkey while the US refused.

The novated Qatar orders if that deal is signed would start arriving in 2026, then refurbished Oman ones in 2027/8 but the fresh Eurofighter Turkey has itself just signed for wont start being delivered until 2030. The F-16 would arrive in 2030 at the earliest if ordered and the F-35 unless they opted for Block 3 would likely be at least 2032 based on the backlog of countries waiting for the Block 4 which is not now expected to be completed until 2031.

Turkey wants 40 Eurofighters, 40 F-16s Blk70 and 40 F-35A ... Eurofighter part is secured, the other two fighters something that needs to be worked out politically

Here's what a reliable, Tier-1 Turkish source/~insider says about the future of the F-16V (and F-35) in the TurAF:


https://x.com/Fatih_MehmetK

After the last meeting with Trump, I guess they changed their minds and are going to move forward with a small F-16V order to convince the Americans to allow the Turkish F-35s to return home and to order an additional 34 aircraft?

 

[had]

Obviously, there will be too many variables in this discussion to have some meaningful outcome/predictions but for the fun of it...
I start with:
The biggest question mark would be the topic around Turkish turbofan jet engines and their capabilities. Not just TF35000, also the TF10000 and the Baykar build.
Firstly, they should try to reduce their dependency in regards of the TF35000.
Buying 20 F-16Vs to get maybe some F-35 sounds really naive (CAATSA and what-not).

Buying them (+ Boeing passenger planes) to get enough F110-GE-129 for their Kaan fleet on the other hand...sounds like a smart move.
With these, worst case scenario, the Kaan becomes a stealthier, almost-Turkish F-15.
Get the Murad radar and networking capabilities working and you have a good base for a defensive air fleet.

Edit: I know you are confident, that TF35000 will work as advertised. That would be great news for the 2032+ TurAF fleet. So nothing to discuss than : )
But I think the best (maybe only) way to get Fighter before that date, is to build early Kaan variants with US-engines. And you even reduce the risk with the TF35000.
F-35 Block 4s will not be available before 2032 (also not for Greece btw) and the new Typhoons will be delivered as soon as possible already.

 

[snne]

Well, reportedly TEI's TF6k/10k team has been working day and night to make it quickly available for Baykar's Kizilelma delivery schedule and tests have been going really smoothly so far with none of the anticipated problems (reportedly!). Apparently, Baykar's been pushing really hard for this due to increased demand from the TurAF.

Both Anka-3 and Kizilelma are going to be delivered next year and official target for TF6k/10k is 2028 (they're probably pushing to make it even sooner).

What makes the TF6k/10k critical beyond equipping Kizilelma and Anka-3, is that it was developed as a stepping stone to implement technologies that will be found in the TF35k. The maturity these engines have reached without any issues is one of the things that reassure us about the delayed timeline for the TF35k.

TEI started working on the TF35k way back in 2018 and won the tender around 2021-22, and they've been giving everything they have to this program.

As per what officials keep saying, they must have already tested some components of the engine, and the assembly and initial tests are supposed to begin next year. After that, airborne tests on Kaan are set to begin in 2028, and the engine is to be ready for Kaan Block 30 production in 2032, contractually.

Everyone agrees that TEI has also reached the technological maturity required to successfully produce this engine, including 3rd gen single crystals (and 4th under development).

Kaan Block 10 tests are set to intensify next year with multiple prototypes, similar to the KF-21 flight test schedule. IWB usage of delivered Block 10-configuration planes will be software-blocked until Block 20 in 2030, when the IWB tests have been finally finished. So, delivery by Q4 2028/Q1 -29, as per the official timeline, actually seems rather possible, even with minor possible delays.

Thankfully, Aselsan has had no problems so far with the sensors of Kaan, F-16 Özgür, Anka-3, and Kizilelma, even if the tests have begun later than expected. Everything seems to be on schedule on that front.

They've also been working on separate RAMs for both Kizilelma and Kaan, and reportedly Kizilelma's RAM is ready. I think they should apply this made-for-Kizilelma RAM to Kaan Block 10s even if it is a makeshift solution. They can apply the intended RAM later when it becomes ready with the Block 30 delivery.

Kizilelma, with MURAD-100A GaN AESA and Toygun EOTS/Karat IRST, is a decent addition to F-16 Özgürs, equipped with the same radar and Gökhan/Gökbora LR-BVRAAMs, and will definitely boost their operational deterrence and pose a threat to other countries' non-5th gen fleets.

We don't have any information regarding how the delivery schedule of the MURAD-100A's been going, but ASELSAN has been investing quite heavily in multiple radar production facilities for the last several years, and I assume there's no issue on that front. The entire F-16B30/40M/50M fleet will probably receive their MURAD-100As as per schedule by 2030.

Regarding the Eurofighter, it'll be a desperately needed addition to the TurAF fighter fleet, even with the CAPTOR-Es of Qatari and CAPTOR-Ms of Omani jets, and the long timeline of the new airframes with ECRS Mk.2s. I am dissatisfied with the performance of CAPTOR-E against other potent AESA-equipped fighters, but it's still the most modern radar option the Eurofighter currently has and is certainly acceptable in this dire situation the TurAF is in.

Some ABs are currently empty, and even with aging airframes of the F-16s and retirement-ready F-4s, the TurAF has to somehow fill these if it really wants to regain its 350-jet force strength. So, even if I'm strongly opposed to procuring any American aircraft that's not an F-35, it'll at least enable the TurAF to retire some aircraft, if not fully utilize these empty ABs.

 

[snne]

The Three Musketeers



All flying aircraft, no mockups... One's already in serial (LRIP) production, another is due in 2027, and the most important one in 2028...

 

[snne]

The leading F-16 in the photo may be one of the MURAD-100A-equipped F-16 trial aircraft; it could also be one of the first serial deliveries, since the -100A has already entered LRIP and Kızılelma is set to enter service with it later this year too...

 

[Nart]

The leading F-16 in the photo may be one of the MURAD-100A-equipped F-16 trial aircraft; it could also be one of the first serial deliveries, since the -100A has already entered LRIP and Kızılelma is set to enter service with it later this year too...

Not possible. That's a Block 50M (no brake parachute). Özgür-II will be implemented starting from the oldest Block 40M aircraft because, similar to Block 30TM Özgür-I, Block 40M aircraft will also receive structural upgrades first.

That also can't be a test aircraft, because MURAD 100-A was tested on Block 40 aircraft (not "M"). The 401st Squadron still operates a handful of non-CCIP Block 40 aircraft for development projects.

 

[snne]

starting from the oldest Block 40M

These aircraft may simply be undergoing periodic maintenance or radome replacement... We're not certain what's inside their radomes, but more and more F-16s have been photographed with clean radomes lately...:

Not possible. That's a Block 50M (no brake parachute).

Yeah I didn't notice that detail

 

[snne]

Four new squadrons have been revived/formed over the past two years, bringing the total to 12...

133. Claw Squadron Resumes Operations

Following the retirement of its combat F-5 aircraft, the 133rd Claw Squadron, which had ceased operations, has been reorganized and reactivated under the 3rd Main Jet Base Command in Konya.

The reactivated 133rd Claw Squadron will carry out its future missions with F-16 fighter jets. With the squadron's reactivation, the aim is to further enhance the operational capability and mission capacity of the 3rd Main Jet Base Command.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2084998789106970804

View: https://x.com/HavaSosyalMedya/status/2084998789106970804?s=20