Shenyang / Chengdu "6th Gen" Aircraft - News and Analysis

It seem more advanced in production than we think , you don't fly demonstrator over a highway with a lot of people if you are not sure of your plane.

Except there's literally no way to fly in and out of Shenyang Aircraft Corporation's airfield (or Chengdu's, for that matter) without flying over the surrounding city, roads, etc. SAC is building a new complex outside of the city further north but it's nowhere near ready.
 
They would have made a single flight out to a remote location for further testing if that was the case.
The fact that it was seen flying over a city is noteworthy, even referring to Chinese practices regarding public safety.
Indeed, they could have even forgone the ferry flight and trucked it to a more discrete location.
 
Informed speculation based on the flimsy evidence is fine when correctly presented as such. Analysis from current and former aerospace engineers and informed observers is interesting as are attempts to guess the dimensions and create 3D models.

Breathless fanboi posts along the lines of "this is going to be the stealthiest fighter EVAR and it probably has the bigliest radar" is not.

Yes, this isn't the only such post but more like the preverbial straw that broke the camel's back. The forum is starting to be overwhelmed at present with posts of uninformed speculation and wish fulfillment, often (but not exlcusively) from new users, cluttering out the interesting posts.

I don't see much option other than splitting the topic, so people can speculate away to their heart's content without cluttering the discussion.

Deleting messages triggers angry "you violated the first amendment" conversations.

Thank you for the reply. I essentially agree with you (although, eh, as a Canadian - we don't have those amendments).

I also very much agree that people should make it clear when they are speculating and on what basis.

I do think standards should be applied both ways... we don't want underestimation, just as we don't want overestimation... and I think the majority of analysists suspect that this aircraft could have unusually large bays, and could also have more power for its avionics/radar than the J-20 has... so a cautious statement in the direction is a reasonable mid-point (although we should acknowledge huge error bars and things like we don't know the 'weapons bay' space isn't entirely fuel and we don't know that it even has a radar).
 
Regarding people wondering about flight testing in more remote locations...

Flight testing of new aircraft for the PRC is usually done from their primary contractor/factory airfield to begin with, the new SAC jet and CAC's J-36 isn't new in that regard.

Think about the flight testing for J-10 and variants back in the day, or J-20 and variants of it from the year 2011 onwards to now, or SAC Flankers and their various FC-31 and J-35 aircraft etc.


They of course do have more remote airfields and air bases which probably have hosted their own fair share of more secretive/black projects (potentially smaller in scale/size from an airframe perspective). But if J-36 and the SAC jet are at equivalent stages of program stages to when J-20 emerged back in the day, then I don't see why there's a need to speculate or wonder about doing further initial flight testing from their primary contractor air fields.
 
Another image. Moving wingtips.
View attachment 757519

If real, that would seem to confirm the wingtips.

Also our first photo showing the top side - does anyone else think that the dorsal bulge is a bit to large for a satcom antenna? It could still be a very large drone/loyal wingman, but assuming this photo is true, the demonstrator at least is looking like a manned platform.
 
 
But for how long will be the question getting asked siegecrosbow? I suppose that it will only be a matter of time before the first proper PLAAF squadrons get them.
 
You're looking at years before these things are in front-line service. For the PLAAF, for example, they'll undergo manufacturer's trials at their factories, as Blitzo mentioned. The next place we tend to see new aircraft is at CFTE at Xian-Yanliang. Then, they'll appear at Dingxin and Cangzhou - these aren't yet front-line units, but they are PLAAF units, used for things like weapons testing, tactics development, etc. Then they'll appear in front-line squadron service. Given that we have a pair of aircraft types only appearing very intermittently at their manufacturer's locations, they're likely very, very early in the development phase. Their first flights being in December is entirely possible, has that been implied in any way by Chinese sources? Regardless neither should be anywhere near operation by the PLAAF in trials units, let alone operational squadrons. I think the J-20 first flew in 2011 and first entered service with an operational squadron in 2019 (9 AB, Wuhu). A similar timeline is logical for the Chengdu aircraft; depending how much is evolutionary vs. revolutionary it could be a little bit quicker, but I wouldn't expect it to be drastically shorter (i.e. I could see 6 years to service, but not four). The SAC aircraft may require longer development if it is intended for CATOBAR naval use.
 
But for how long will be the question getting asked siegecrosbow? I suppose that it will only be a matter of time before the first proper PLAAF squadrons get them.

A lot of the aerodynamic additions are pretty novel so it will take a while to get things right. This is just the technical stuff too. The doctrine will also be unlike anything PLAAF is familiar with, so it will take a while to figure out how they coordinate with available assets in an effective and efficient manner.

This is why J-20/35 will be mass produced for the next two decades.
 
You're looking at years before these things are in front-line service. For the PLAAF, for example, they'll undergo manufacturer's trials at their factories, as Blitzo mentioned. The next place we tend to see new aircraft is at CFTE at Xian-Yanliang. Then, they'll appear at Dingxin and Cangzhou - these aren't yet front-line units, but they are PLAAF units, used for things like weapons testing, tactics development, etc. Then they'll appear in front-line squadron service. Given that we have a pair of aircraft types only appearing very intermittently at their manufacturer's locations, they're likely very, very early in the development phase. Their first flights being in December is entirely possible, has that been implied in any way by Chinese sources? Regardless neither should be anywhere near operation by the PLAAF in trials units, let alone operational squadrons. I think the J-20 first flew in 2011 and first entered service with an operational squadron in 2019 (9 AB, Wuhu). A similar timeline is logical for the Chengdu aircraft; depending how much is evolutionary vs. revolutionary it could be a little bit quicker, but I wouldn't expect it to be drastically shorter (i.e. I could see 6 years to service, but not four). The SAC aircraft may require longer development if it is intended for CATOBAR naval use.

Yes, that seems reasonable to me.

There are some variable factors -- like whether the J-36 from CAC is at an equal representative stage of development as the first J-20 s/n 2001 that flew in early 2011 or if it is a bit further ahead and whether that may shave a couple of years off its development period, but otoh J-36 is also a very new aircraft concept and perhaps the first of its kind such that might then add on a couple of years to it again.
 
But for how long will be the question getting asked siegecrosbow? I suppose that it will only be a matter of time before the first proper PLAAF squadrons get them.
Unless there's a really, really abbreviated flight testing plan (quickly verify flight control laws, do weapons clearance, keep planes maneuver-restricted while the test pilots expand the flight envelope), there's no way the planes are less than 5 years away from IOC.

And that'd be for the J-50. The J-36 is enough different an aircraft that it needs a lot more thought put into how it's going to be used.
 
Three jet engine , top speed exceeds Mach 3?
Unlikely. The inlets definitely do not agree with that. Mach 3 means needing adjustable inlets, and stealth means using spikes like the SR-71 Blackbirds. This has fixed inlets, which generally suggests a most-efficient speed in the Mach 1.3-1.8 range.

It may still be able to exceed that, IIRC the F-22 can break Mach 2, but the non-adjustable inlets will cause a lot of drag and greatly limit top speed.



the speed of fighter more fast, more chance get rid of the pursuit of infrared air-to-air missiles, I think.
If you're radar-stealthy, it will be unlikely for anyone to get close enough to get an IR missile lock.
 
Unless they do something different with the inlets that we do not know about Scott Kenny.
 
If you're radar-stealthy, it will be unlikely for anyone to get close enough to get an IR missile lock.
Let me put a question mark here.

In a world where significant forces are stealthy and emitting is discouraged, ending up in a WVR fight is not unlikely.
 
I feel that, since this is "Sandboxx [...] speculating", this should go in the "General Discussion and Speculation" thread.

The speculation is specific to the J-36.

On a broader take, I hope that one day people can stop linking to his videos as if they have any sort of use.

I find his videos to be interesting and moderately informative.
 
Via by78/sinodef
A Chengdu patent on an adjustable Caret intake design for improved supersonic performance.
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