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I don't know whether to just shrug at the inevitability of something like this being uncovered or try to consider what a constructive approach to these (completely unsurprising) connections would be. Guess some of it hinges on how much Taliban and its backers in the region can isolate Afghanistan from the rest of the world yet again, it might well become much harder to be a geographical "haven" for terrorism than in the aughts or before. If the region stays more socially and economically integrated and porous than before, the risks of opaqueness into bad actors' networks might be at least as well mitigated through intelligence and incentives as by hard military power. On that note:


It's very early days, but one can't fault USAID for trying, at least.
 
Cipher Brief expert Tim Willasey-Wilsey on how the intentions of different actors in Afghanistan and its near history may (or may not) reflect on what's to come:

"Bottom Line Up Front: There are indications that the Taliban have no intention of reaching a compromise and believe they can take over Afghanistan shortly after the US withdrawal. Comparisons with the survival of the Najibullah government may be misleading. An eventual evacuation of the international community should be manageable but would have its hazards."

 


 
Forgot to put these in:


 

 
To me the pull out from Afghanistan is quite obviously a need to re-position/re-deploy forces for potentially bigger, more important things to come. The players involved no longer need to be tied down by a backwater sideshow...
I concur GTX


Regards
Pioneer
 
Timelines for an Afghan collapse have shrunk to late this year, apparently. The Afghan government is collapsing faster than expected. Previous estimates were two years.

Afghanistan is obviously not worth holding. The US surrender in Afghanistan is perfectly rational, and conserves US resources for more important things.

A complete Taliban takeover was obviously the only plausible outcome of the so called peace talks. The only question was how much civil war there would be in the aftermath. The Afghan government is very, very incompetent and corrupt.

 
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Al Minhad base in Dubai in the UAE, which hosts aircraft from various nations, has been crucial to Italy since it took space in 2015 there for mounting flights over Iraq and as a stop-off en route to Italian bases in Afghanistan. If confirmed, the eviction may now seriously complicate Italy’s ongoing pull-out from Afghanistan.
 


 
Most of the papers are marked "official sensitive", a relatively low level of classification used, according to the government, "where there is a clear and justifiable requirement to reinforce the 'need to know'".
But one document, addressed to Ben Wallace's private secretary, and marked "Secret UK Eyes Only", outlines highly sensitive recommendations for the UK's military footprint in Afghanistan, following the end of Operation Resolute Support, the Nato operation currently winding down in the wake of President Biden's decision earlier this year to withdraw American forces.
The document discusses an American request for British assistance in several specific areas, and addresses the question of whether any British special forces will remain in Afghanistan once the withdrawal is complete.
Media reports have already suggested Britain is considering leaving some forces behind.
Due to the sensitivity of the document, the BBC has decided not to report details which could endanger the security of British and other personnel in Afghanistan.
But amid reports of a worsening security situation in the country, it sounds several warnings.
"Any UK footprint in Afghanistan that persists... is assessed to be vulnerable to targeting by a complex network of actors," it says, noting that "the option to withdraw completely remains."
Afghanistan, it says, is already becoming more dangerous.
The reduced presence of Nato forces "is already impairing the situational awareness that we (and the US) used to enjoy across the country".
No Britons have been killed in Afghanistan since the US-Taliban deal in February 2020, it says, but "this would be unlikely to remain the status quo".

 
This all disturbs me. I want our troops out, yet it seems China has a very strong presence in Pakistan and Russia has a strong presence in the countries of the region as well. Certain places for better or worse are stations to continue our reach in important geopolitical locations against the likes of China and Russia. There is much political game playing going on between the likes of America, China, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc... much that is not discussed and much which media as usual won't discuss (and don't even know). I feel like a lot of this change is coming from the new American administration and European coalitions. I don't like it, but I also know so little. Do you guys have any deeper understanding of the political and social happenings going on behind what is glibly stated by global mass media? Would love some input as I don't know much at all.

It's like the Russian pipeline to Germany that our current administration seemed to bend to. I don't like it. So much we are not being told by media. Media which ideally should be giving some deep politics insight.

Btw what are some places you guys go for information that isn't usually discussed? Sorry I don't want to drag politics into this but it is the nature of the beast with this topic. I am open to sources of all biases left or right or other.
 
some places you guys go for information that isn't usually discussed
IxJac is a retired Canadian Forces solider who served two tours in Afghanistan in a rear-area intelligence unit around 2010 or so. His (scores of) posts on the Afghanistan thread are illuminating commentary on the state of Afghanistan.


 
With the scale of Taliban gains, it is probably too late for the US to stay. The Taliban has carefully avoided attacking US / Coalition forces, whether they maintain that posture if the US stays is less likely.
 
carefully avoided attacking
The Taliban have reportedly been defending US bases and forces in Afghanistan against ISIS and other groups in the region, as per the terms of their agreement with the US.

This also means they have been ringing American bases, so if the Americans break the agreement, the Taliban are well placed to retaliate.
 
Thanks for the link! Will check it out. Also weren't some Taliban forces in bed with al queda? Thought al queda and isis were essentially related. I can't keep up.
 
Thanks for the link! Will check it out. Also weren't some Taliban forces in bed with al queda? Thought al queda and isis were essentially related. I can't keep up.

The Taliban and Al Qaeda consider ISIS extremists. ISIS got its start as AQI, but morphed into something different. Such is the way of terrorist splinter groups.


The Historical Commentaries in the 21st Century bit of SB military commentaries has no end of Afghanistan war stories.

 
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