The role of the B-2 likely changes as B-21's come online.

It's going to change to "museum piece". B-2 are ridiculously expensive to fly. Even above their immediate flight hour costs, their maintenance requires expensive infrastructure that nothing else in the USAF arsenal needs. There is absolutely no way to justify maintaining the B-2 fleet for any other reason than for the unique capabilities only they have. The second cheaper to maintain airframes can provide those same capabilities, the Spirits are all going to make a one-way trips to either museums or to the boneyard.

Maintaining it as a missile truck would be absurd -- it would be cheaper to provide the same capability by flying a bunch of new stealth fighters in close formation.
 
But who knows. Maybe by then a large reusable rocket could be a delivery platform. Launch it 60 miles up, release 25-30 hypersonic boost-glide missiles, land, and reload. Hmmm.

I wonder how much Elon would sell Starships for.
 
The role of the B-2 likely changes as B-21's come online.

...
The second cheaper to maintain airframes can provide those same capabilities, the Spirits are all going to make a one-way trips to either museums or to the boneyard.

Maintaining it as a missile truck would be absurd -- it would be cheaper to provide the same capability by flying a bunch of new stealth fighters in close formation.

The USAF may agree with you but I don't agree "absurd" is the right sentiment, just expensive. The question is when is that "second". Originally it was 2058. Now, due to manpower requirements, it's the 2030's.

The first B-21 squadrons will likely be existing B-2 squadrons. But the US Air Force has determined that the National Defense Strategy requires 74 additional squadrons by 2030, including 5 additional bomber squadrons. The problem is they are already short of maintainers. They've got to fix this structural manpower retention problem. I think forward deployed bombers would add continuity and security for maintainers and their families. I'd be looking to invite/lure/steal level 5 and above maintainers from industry as well. Perhaps even bring the "Warrant Officer" classification to the Air Force. Technical specialists need advancement opportunities and an ability to compete $$$-wise with industry.

In addition to forward deployed bombers, there needs to be a plan for B-21's and B-2's to fight together for 5 years or so. B-2's are force multipliers. When you're short bombers, I don't think you want to get rid of force multipliers. I hope they keep B-2 and B-1 squadrons until the additional 5 bomber squadrons are functional. I wouldn't want to see them go as soon as B-21's come online. The additional numbers count.
 
As it stands now the first B-21 squadron will be located at Ellsworth AFB which now flys the B-1B in the 34th and 37th bomb squadrons. I don't know if they will make one of those a training squadron and assign the first B-21's to it much like one of the Dyess B-1B's squadrons functions as a training unit or activate a third squadron as such a unit. The B-2 squadrons are assigned to Whiteman AFB. The latest public release was for them to receive the B-21 in 2032-33 long after the initial squadrons achieve IOC and probably FOC. Think the last B-1B's are scheduled to go away in 2036. As for maintainers the easiest and something that is used by the 509th at Whiteman as well as the 9th at Dyess is the establishment of a guard or reserve associate units. Plenty of journeymen maintainers in those units.
 
This from the general commanding the 8th Air Force at a recent 30th Anniversary celebration of the B-2 as reported by Defense News:

"The program has made fast progress through its design phase, completing a preliminary design review in 2017 and the critical design review in 2018. The B-21 Raider could reach initial operational capability in the mid 2020s, the Air Force has said, and the service plans on buying at least 100 aircraft.

“From everything I hear, the cost, schedule, performance is right on expectations,” said Maj. Gen. Jim Dawkins, the commander of the Eighth Air Force who is responsible for overseeing strategic bomber operations. Dawkins was on the ground in Palmdale for the event and for B-2 related activities, but told reporters that his trip would not include any B-21 related activities.

Big questions still loom about the future of the B-2. In 2018, the Air Force announced that it would retire both the B-2 and the B-1 in the early 2030s as the B-21 came online.

But after an internal study by the Air Force posited that it would need to increase from nine to 14 bomber squadrons by 2030, service leaders have said that they continue to assess its bomber force structure plans. On Tuesday, Dawkins said the timeline for the B-2’s retirement was “still evolving,” with “no set date” for divestment."
 
As it stands now the first B-21 squadron will be located at Ellsworth AFB which now flys the B-1B in the 34th and 37th bomb squadrons.

...

Ok. I wonder why that is. Perhaps there is net new infrastructure requirement that is easier to accommodate at Ellsworth?

It would be nice if the plan is to not cannibalize existing squadrons to stand up B-21 units.
 
If they are adding 5 more squadrons, it would be nice to see a base like KI Sawyer in northern michigan reopened. Read that they still use the 12,000 ft runway for civilian aircraft.
 
If the B-21 is going to be a smaller, more dynamic younger brother of the B-2 and use the same off-the-shelf tech as the F-35, it's very much possible we may see a modern technological platform exceed the initial planned order quantity (especially given the rapid modernization of China). Once they show off their new stealth bomber in the next few months, it'll be a major wake up call to the world.
 
Ellsworth may have been chosen because initially the B-21 was to replace the B-1B and B-2. Its selection does not impact B-1B training allowing both Ellsworth and Dyess to fly the two bombers in parallel until the B-21 reaches FOC. Now with the AF asking for 5 more bomber squadrons additional bases may need to be found. This brings up a few good questions like: Will they base the additional B-21's at Ellsworth, Dyess and Whiteman? SAC in it's day liked dispersal basing. What other bases than these three can accommodate bomber squadrons? Are there agreements with communities to re-take bases like K.I. Sawyer, Wurtsmith, Forbes and Griffiss? There are also Malmstrom and Grand Forks AFB's with little or no flying activity that might be future locations for these aircraft.
 
From the article...

"...Whiteman AFB, Missouri, and Dyess AFB, Texas, will receive B-21s as they become available. "

The existing bomber bases not listed are Barksdale LA and Minot ND. With BRAC already an issue it would be surprising to see additional bomber bases identified in CONUS. I would speculate that the listed facilities are the "easiest" to add infrastructure.

With a 28,000 square mile bomber test range across four states, Ellsworth is a no-brainer. There is a B-1 wing there already. I don't know if they'll stand up a different wing in support of B-21 or incorporate B-21 schoolhouse into the existing wing. Either way there will need to be significant construction at any of these bases if five bomber squadrons will be added AF wide. The good thing is that Ellsworth has significant open space. There may even be enough space to add an entire wing with a couple of squadrons of B-21's should they keep the B-1's.

Whiteman is the only B-2 base; with two active duty and one ANG squadron. There would definitely need to be additional construction if B-21's were to be based alongside existing B-2's. I don't believe they have the space for additional support infrastructure, squadron facilities, shops and housing. It seems like they were planning to just replace the B-2's with B-21's.

As B-2 is THE penetrating bomber at the moment how would you, logistically, keep your global strike capability AND switch out three squadrons? Perhaps you bring a squadron or two up to full operational capability at the schoolhouse and then inactivate one of the three squadrons of B-2's at a time? Maybe the ANG squadron first? It will be interesting to see what they do.

Dyess also has none of the protective structures used for B-2's. Assuming that B-21's are not going to sit on the flight line like B-1's, and that B-21 squadrons will be net new, then these structures, maintenance shops and housing would need to added. The base also has the advantage of significant amounts of open space inside the existing base perimeter.

IMO, if the net number of squadrons "may" increase, it would make sense to increase all the required support infrastructure at as few facilities as possible.

 
If the B-21 is going to be a smaller, more dynamic younger brother of the B-2 and use the same off-the-shelf tech as the F-35, it's very much possible we may see a modern technological platform exceed the initial planned order quantity (especially given the rapid modernization of China). Once they show off their new stealth bomber in the next few months, it'll be a major wake up call to the world.
The artwork certainly doesn't show a significant size reduction. I don't see how 100 long ranged lo aardvark sized aircraft can replace all of the buffs,bones,and spirits.
 
In an op-ed for the Air Force Magazine, Pacific Air Forces Director of Air and Cyber Operations Maj. Gen Scott L. Pleus confirmed that next-generation bomber will have new capabilities for self-defense during flight.

Maj. Gen Scott L. Pleus exposed details of new equipment and new concepts in order to sustain Air Force’s air superiority in the decades to come, adding that “a B-21 that also has air-to-air capabilities”.

 
The source article is here. It doesn't say that the B-21 will have air-to-air capability, and in fact implies that the current B-21 does NOT have such capability. The quote from Pleus is not directly related to B-21, rather it's about not pre-judging NGAD.

In fact, Air Force leaders have consistently said NGAD need not produce a new fighter, but could yield something else entirely.

“If we were to characterize it as a fighter, we would be …thinking too narrowly about what kind of airplane we need in a highly contested environment,” Pleus said. “A B-21 that also has air-to-air capabilities” and the ability “to work with the family of systems to defend itself, utilizing stealth—maybe that’s where the sixth-generation airplane comes from.”
 
The source article is here. It doesn't say that the B-21 will have air-to-air capability, and in fact implies that the current B-21 does NOT have such capability. The quote from Pleus is not directly related to B-21, rather it's about not pre-judging NGAD.

but this is such an obvious way to improve survivability
 
The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber’s first flight will be a short hop, about 22mi (35km) north across the Mojave Desert, from Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California where it is being built to its testing site at Edwards Air Force Base.

 
The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber’s first flight will be a short hop, about 22mi (35km) north across the Mojave Desert, from Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California where it is being built to its testing site at Edwards Air Force Base.


That is excellent news Flyaway, the fact that they are releasing this news now must mean that the first prototype is nearing completion.
 
The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber’s first flight will be a short hop, about 22mi (35km) north across the Mojave Desert, from Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California where it is being built to its testing site at Edwards Air Force Base.


That is excellent news Flyaway, the fact that they are releasing this news now must mean that the first prototype is nearing completion.

But does that tally with first flight date being comparatively far in the future?
 
The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider stealth bomber’s first flight will be a short hop, about 22mi (35km) north across the Mojave Desert, from Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California where it is being built to its testing site at Edwards Air Force Base.


That is excellent news Flyaway, the fact that they are releasing this news now must mean that the first prototype is nearing completion.

But does that tally with first flight date being comparatively far in the future?

Hmm, never thought of that.:oops: I wish that I could be a fly on the wall at Northrop Grumman at Plant 42 right now.
 
Even with an extensive ground test program ahead of the first flight, I wouldn't expect the first complete aircraft more than a year before the date given. At most maybe something like the 787 "rollout" airframe where they have something that "looks" complete and has most of the major systems, but is held together with temporary fittings and is still a ways away from being a functional aircraft.
 
Even with an extensive ground test program ahead of the first flight, I wouldn't expect the first complete aircraft more than a year before the date given. At most maybe something like the 787 "rollout" airframe where they have something that "looks" complete and has most of the major systems, but is held together with temporary fittings and is still a ways away from being a functional aircraft.
I think that was the case with the B-2. I recall ground tests took another 9 months after the rollout ceremony. 9 months after rolling out the B-1, the B-52, the B-58, they had racked up some hours. Hopefully it's not that long, again., especially with the comments about OTS tech being used in it.
 
December 2021 here we come....


December 2021? That is strange that they have gone for a first flight during the winter, I would have thought that June or July would have been better. Any one know how cold it gets at Edwards Air Force Base in December?

The B-2 first flight was in July but the B-1 was also in December. The weather isn't a significant factor in deciding when first flight is, other than obviously avoiding specific days with inclement weather. Daytime highs average around 60F, lows average around 30F. Not terribly extreme at all.
 
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December 2021 here we come....


December 2021? That is strange that they have gone for a first flight during the winter, I would have thought that June or July would have been better. Any one know how cold it gets at Edwards Air Force Base in December?

The B-2 first flight was in July but the B-1 was also in December. The weather isn't a significant factor in deciding when first flight is, other than obviously avoiding specific days with inclement weather. Daytime nights average around 60F, lows average around 30F. Not terribly extreme at all.

Thanks for the weather information regarding Edwards Air Force Base TomS.
 
Interesting news but not unexpected.


Here's a hypothetical exercise to see what B-21 procurement might look like based on the info available today.

Since we're talking integration and production of existing tech we'll assume there are mostly F-35 systems
and sensors on the new bomber. My point being that flight testing will be just that - flight and integration
testing. Not so much testing of new systems. The decade of F-35 testing will transfer to B-21.

Here are some examples of possible B-21 systems that might be reused from F-35

Dry version of F135 engineP&W listed as Sub for B-21
CNI Avionics on F-35NG - This includes MADL and sensor fusion. B-21 talks cleanly w/F-35.
AESA Radar on F-35NG
DAS on F-35Originally NG but dropped for Raytheon starting in 2023. Let's hope they fixed the lens problem or perhaps the USAF will specify the change to Raytheon?
EOTS from F-35LM - not listed as a supplier but doesn't the USAF own the technology?


Could they use large portions of F-35 code for B-21 since they are working on Block 4 already? Perhaps someone here knows?

If the stars align, maybe flight testing will go "head-spinning-ly" quickly and they move to building operational
air vehicles within two years. With the recent news concerning production funding in '22 it leads me to believe
the USAF wants to accelerate the completion of the EMD program.

With all those caveats, maybe the next few years looks something like this.


Procurement $ in BudgetDev $ in BudgetBy DecemberAir Vehicles CompletedBlock No.Production Lot
~6.13B spent
through 2018
$2.3B2019AV-1Test
$3.0B2020AV-2 and AV-3Test


In Q1 2021, by historical reference, we expect roll-out and ground testing to begin since 1st flight is Dec '21.
This would mean that NG keeps all AV's under wraps throughout 2020.


Procurement $ in BudgetDev $ in BudgetBy DecemberAir Vehicles CompletedBlock No.Production Lot
$3.1B FYDP2021AV-4 and AV-5Pre-First Flight - Upgrade later


AV-1 or AV-2 first flight in December 2021. AV-2 through AV-5 leave for Edwards throughout 2022 as they are finished.
Block 10 build is locked down in 2021. I believe I recall seeing that the first lot is development and consists of 5 air
vehicles so the math works. USAF projecting procurement funding to begin in '22.

Production increase from 2 to 3 air vehicles for 2022


Procurement $ in BudgetDev $ in BudgetBy DecemberAir Vehicles CompletedBlock No.Production Lot
$0.2B FYDP$3.1B FYDP2022AV-6 through AV-810LRIP-1


During 2022, B-21 begins operational training as Block 10 air vehicles become available and are
flown to Edwards throughout the year.

It's a very interesting that procurement spending is projected for '22 - '24. These are most likely
long lead time purchases but the big $$ makes me think they are planning for early completion
of the EMD contract. This $$ allows them to finish the EMD contract in FY2024 w/all 20 bombers
completed and begin production of 8 bombers per year starting in 2025.

Production increase from 3 to 5 for 2023


Procurement $ in BudgetDev $ in BudgetBy DecemberAir Vehicles CompletedBlock No.Production Lot
$2.4B FYDP$2.7B FYDP2023AV-9 through AV-1310LRIP-2/3


It's been mentioned that FRP target is 8 bombers per year. At ~$700M each that's $5.6B per year. If you
add the '22-'24 procurement $$ you get $5.9B. That provides the budget for qty 8 bombers to be
purchased in 2025 w/a budget of ~$5.9 each year after. A squadron per year.

Production increases from 5 to 7 for 2024.


Procurement $ in BudgetDev $ in BudgetBy DecemberAir Vehicles CompletedBlock No.Production Lot
$3.3B FYDP$2.3B FYDP2024AV-14 through AV-2010LRIP-3/4/5


IOC sometime in 2025 with at least 8 bombers and one trainer. With this accelerated EMD contract
completion there could be almost twice that number. This ends the EMD contract.

Production increases from 7 to 8 for 2025.


Procurement $ in BudgetDev $ in BudgetBy DecemberAir Vehicles CompletedBlock No.Production Lot
$5.9B2025AV-21 through AV-2810FRP-1
$5.9B2026AV-29 through AV-3610FRP-2
$5.9BNUC in 20272027AV-37 through AV-4420FRP-3
$5.9B2028AV-45 through AV-5220FRP-4
$5.9B2029AV-53 through AV-6020FRP-5


In my exercise, best case scenario is 57 bombers by 2030. Six operational squadrons and a training
squadron. These are huge procurement numbers. No wonder the USAF wants to stop funding the
B-1 asap. Maybe they're speculating that the external threats will grow significantly between 2030
and 2040. In the mean time, they can save the B-1 upgrade $$ for B-21.
 
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Hail Hal

kidding aside, B-21 pilots in adversary cages awaiting torture is not an "existential idea" for the the US or the pilots.
 
Sounds like prototype components are starting to get assembled into a whole aircraft. Obviously a painfully slow process since the December 2021 first flight date was labelled as unsure.
 
Sounds like prototype components are starting to get assembled into a whole aircraft. Obviously a painfully slow process since the December 2021 first flight date was labelled as unsure.

So it looks like the first flight could be put back a few months into 2022, that would be the best solution if Northrop are struggling with production of components for the B-21
 
The first flight will be when the airframe is properly ready, is that not better than rushing the job?
 
The first flight will be when the airframe is properly ready, is that not better than rushing the job?

I would like Northrop to take their time over the B-21 production and not try to rush the building of the first prototype because that is when problems start to happen.
 
I find it surprising that a classified program is going to have a public unveiling according to that article before it has even flown.
 

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