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I can't see any scenario where France would buy the F-35.
I second that opinion.
- The AdA (and the Aéronavale) are struggling to afford any reasonable number of Rafale (target 180 since 20 years, so far 100 including the Rafales dumped to foreign countries so 90-80 until replacements come)
- the two services have just standardized their fleets around Rafale; only survivor are Mirage 2000s near the end of their rope. No way they buy a completely alien system.
My bet is on Spain indeed: F-35B for Juan Carlos makes ton of sense. AV-8B Harriers won't last forever and Italy has shown the way.