Future Combat Air System (FCAS / SCAF / FSAC) - Speculation and Theories

[EmoBirb]

Why necessarily?
"falling way short" historically comes either from an insurmountable difference in industry level, or from conceptual downfalls. This admittedly happened twice, but in both cases the shift wasn't immediately obvious.

Because Dassault lacks behind the likes of Boeing, LM, CAC or SAC and that has been fairly clear for the past...two decades? These companies have developed and produced advanced low observable aircraft at scale, they have access to data, both digital and real world, to utilize for future endeavours. They have a large pool of experienced and talented engineers who are at the forefront of aerospace, mechanical and computer engineering.

Dassault is a mid tier defense contractor from a european middle power who's most sophisticated product is a modernized version of a 1980s aircraft. The difference in sheer industrial and engineering might between the US/China and France is not a matter of debate but of fact. Still France could produce an alternative that's less capable but still potent, something that has a niche between the ofderings from the superpowers in the east and west. Which is what they've always done. France never produced aircraft that were more formidable than contemporary American or Soviet designs, but they always competed with them on other merits outside of straight up performance. Which is what made Dassault aircraft incredibly popular to this day, in a world where F-35s, Su-57s and J-35s are on export, countries still pick the Rafale up.

So one doesn't have to recoil at the fact that Dassault cannot match the best of the best from any given superpower, they never did that and still have been successful.

 

[Ainen]

Because Dassault lacks behind the likes of Boeing, LM, CAC or SAC and that has been fairly clear for the past...two decades?

I don't remember Boeing producing advanced LO aircraft to date. And yet, they won the F-47.
LO could've been magic in 1980s. It isn't now, it's an engineering task.

Dassault is a mid tier defense contractor from a european middle power who's most sophisticated product is a modernized version of a 1980s aircraft.

There's nothing insurmountable to get to LO from a modernized version of 1980s (2000s actually) aircraft; especially when the modernization is up to date and up to speed.

What Dassault lacks is airframe - and airframe isn't really an area where they are likely to be lacking.

France never produced aircraft that were more formidable than contemporary American or Soviet designs, but they always competed with them on other merits outside of straight up performance.

French aircraft are specifically known to fight well against Soviet and, sometimes, American aircraft.
Rafale in 2010-2020s was/is fully competitive with actual offerings from both US (note that a lot of F-35 export proposal in the past was based on selling blk.4) and especially Russia (Su-57 first export delivery - 2025). Same with China - making a stronger, cheaper aircraft is not the entire proposal.

 

[dark sidius]

I remember when I first started reading the FCAS thread, @dark sidius made the prediction that fcas is gonna go nowhere and got laughed at.

A few people on that thread owe him a drink.

Its truly wonderous how shortsighted some politicians continue to be despite how things are now. 12 billion? Somebody needs to be figuratively drawn and quartered. If anything, the piecemeal withdrawl of US forces from europe should start ringing alarm bells, but no ... lets continue to underfund an increasingly underfunded military with a bolder russia and a US uninterested in european defense.

Oh right and the entire UK sub fleet is now in maintenance and repairs.

Thank you a glass of Jim Beam Apple for me I have another prediction , there will never be a 6 th gen fighter make by France. The actual government have zero credibilty they let coming a huge economic crisis in France and there will never have a budget for doing a 6 th gen fighter in the decade to come. Germany have understand that and they prefer going alone on the 6th Gen , and they will succed . France wanted for the Germany to pay for the French next gen fighter with carrier capability, since the start it is not the Next Gen fighter what Germany need or want , they want a Air Dominance fighter not a next Gen Multi role fighter , since the start it was a scam. German military budget for 2026 , 120 billions of Euros, France 60 Billions look by yourself who will have a Next Gen fighter in a decade....

 

[galgot]

Thank you a glass of Jim Beam Apple for me I have another prediction , there will never be a 6 th gen fighter make by France. The actual government have zero credibilty they let coming a huge economic crisis in France and there will never have a budget for doing a 6 th gen fighter in the decade to come. Germany have understand that and they prefer going alone on the 6th Gen , and they will succed . France wanted for the Germany to pay for the French next gen fighter with carrier capability, since the start it is not the Next Gen fighter what Germany need or want , they want a Air Dominance fighter not a next Gen Multi role fighter , since the start it was a scam. German military budget for 2026 , 120 billions of Euros, France 60 Billions look by yourself who will have a Next Gen fighter in a decade....

You know, the fact that you got laughed at wasn't about you "predicting" SCAF's death, it was more about EVERYONE of your posts saying "it's dead" without adding much to the conversation, and as on this last post of your, repeating again and again how France, her gov, is broke, has "zero credibility", and is on the brink of collapse. And now, you go as far as parroting the "France wanted for the Germany to pay... blah blah" like an average Hans at the bar, knowing nothing about the subject, but who doesn’t want to miss out on the fun of grumbling about the Franzosen.

Could you please find things more constructive and less repetitive to post ? Please ?

 

[H_K]

I don't remember Boeing producing advanced LO aircraft to date. And yet, they won the F-47.
LO could've been magic in 1980s. It isn't now, it's an engineering task.

What Dassault lacks is airframe - and airframe isn't really an area where they are likely to be lacking.

Exactly this. Dassault has the benefit of an excellent avionics partner (Thales) with a track record of delivering high quality sensors, electronic warfare, data fusion etc. They have access to the best hot section engine technology in Europe (Snecma), which is ahead of supposedly 6 gen designs in China etc. Dassault themselves already have one of the world’s best flight control systems and cockpit man-machine interfaces. And finally they have flown true VLO with Neuron, years ahead of China where a lot of designs are still more LO than VLO.

So that’s not a bad starting point. All they need is the 6th gen airframe to package around all these elements, and that’s a challenge they are better positioned than most to handle. Dassault’s probably spent over a billion euros on this already given that the French government has spent €1.5B on FCAS in the last 5 years, not counting any self-funding by Dassault (the French Defense minister yesterday said €2.5B total invested to date).

Now will it be as good as F-47? It doesn’t need to be. The benchmark for 6th gen on the export market and in combat will be GCAP and what comes out of China and Dassault is not lagging behind those technologically.

 

[red admiral]

Now will it be as good as F-47? It doesn’t need to be.

I think this is key point for all other Western programmes. Even in the US - is F/A-XX going to be as good as F-47 for air-to-air? Different aircraft will have different strengths and weaknesses for the different context they are designed for.



Otherwise there's a massive amount of supposition going on in this thread about the capability of different countries that should largely be ignored. Discussing this from an uninformed viewpoint (as we will be from public domain information) only gets us towards the heat death of the universe sooner.

 

[kqcke for you]

German media talks allot suddenly about fighter-bomber drone for Luftwaffe

German media talks allot suddenly about fighter-bomber drone for Luftwaffe

Been for months atleast if not the last 2 to 3 years

Also that FCAS died do the high cost of 100 billion Euro, seemingly the Germans not wanted to pay that largely.

Where is that stated? Because this a new thing that wasn't reported by anyone before.

Edit: neither article talks about this.

 

[EmoBirb]

I don't remember Boeing producing advanced LO aircraft to date.

Boeing has access to all the data and research of MDD and they also competed in ATF as well as JSF. Making it rather far into the JSF program. Boeing was also involved in the manufacturing of the F-22.

X-32, F-22 (together with Lockheed), X-36, Bird of Prey and many more. Boeing has so much access to advanced aviation research, it's mind boggling. Dassault has...one drone and Saab has...nothing.

 

[tico]

They have access to the best hot section engine technology in Europe (Snecma), which is ahead of supposedly 6 gen designs in China etc.

France can't even come up with an engine comparable to the WS-19 now. In fact, its engine technology may bethe worst among the several countries that have mastered fighter jet engine technology.

Dassault themselves already have one of the world’s best flight control systems and cockpit man-machine interfaces.

If France's flight control capabilities were truly advanced enough, the FCAS model would be tailles.

And finally they have flown true VLO with Neuron, years ahead of China where a lot of designs are still more LO than VLO.

The GJ - 11 has been in service, and it may have been in service for several years. What about France's Neuron? Not to mention a bunch of other flying wing drones in China.

Look at the J-35. Do you think it's easy for France to build a fighter jet like the J-35?France's ideal FCAS is basically a J-35 with nuclear capabilities.

 

[SUPER=BUG]

Actually, I only have one question: Can Europeans really overcome their differences in interests, especially now? It seems like they're not in a big hurry to get the sixth-generation fighter.

Besides, the efficiency of European bureaucrats is really shocking. Didn't this project start back in 2017? How much money has been invested by now, and what results have they actually achieved?

 

[Reddington777]

Actually, I only have one question: Can Europeans really overcome their differences in interests, especially now? It seems like they're not in a big hurry to get the sixth-generation fighter.

Besides, the efficiency of European bureaucrats is really shocking. Didn't this project start back in 2017? How much money has been invested by now, and what results have they actually achieved?

I think it's important to put all of that in context here.

That's what happens with smaller countries who are trying to compete with larger and more prosperous countries. It's less because of efficiency and moreso because every country has their own military industrial complex & the derived self sufficiency to protect. They have less money and they absolutely have common adversaries, but each country has geographies and priorities that call for a different set of requirements. If the end operational needs marry well, then the program could survive even with compromises, but if the end needs are different... then please don't get married.

Sure - greed, nationalism and politics probably have had their hand in things, but so are the realities of geography and obligations. GCAP has had a comparatively smooth development up until recently because the operational realities of the UK and Japan (and arguably italy as well) are similar - all want an air force land based fighter with long range and endurance due to having to patrol ocean without large carriers and the gargantuan costs that are associated with fielding a naval aviation arm (and among other reasons I probably missed). Added to that ofcourse is the willingness of politicians and industry to compromise.

Germany and France, in my opinion, got together not because their operational realities are similar, but because one has money and the other has experience (or hell maybe both have experience but not enough money individually). France want a fighter that can share enough commonality with its naval variant. The Germans may or may not want that kind of compromise. Because of these differences, the resulting industrial workshare conflict can become more contentious just because one side may feel like the other's requirements already compromised the desired performance of aircraft and if they lose workshare too then what are they in for? The other is a notoriously anxious and prideful country insistent on self sufficiency through most of their post WWII history - for better or for worse.

I don't think it's necessarily because European politicians this or that (all politicians are slimy as far as I'm concerned), and I certainly don't think the French are wrong to insist on its self reliance. I think this is what happens when two people with personality issues get married for money only to find out that they have completely different life goals. They get in a very public and nasty divorce with the dog (CCA & cloud?) being the only thing they can both agree to love in the future - with a debatable amount of commitment. Meanwhile their's plenty of men and women out there more fitting for the two of them. It's just unfortunate that they discovered this nearly 10 years too late.

 

[H_K]

@SUPER=BUG Actual development studies only started in 2023 following the Phase 1B contact (€3.2B) signed in Dec 2022. That's 3.5 years spent advancing various critical technologies, defining not just the airframe concept and doing wind tunnel tests, but also working on the engine technology, elements of the combat cloud, remote carriers etc.

Prior to that there was a much smaller 18mo conceptual design study (Phase 1A) worth only €155M started in 2020, preceeded by an even smaller 12mo Joint Concept Study (€65M) in 2019 to figure out how to bring together the various industrial players. The 3 air forces signed off on requirements in early 2019; these were laid out in a ~10 page High Level Common Operational Requirements Document. (Which also means that the idea that Germany didn't agree to French requirements for a multirole strike fighter with naval capabilities is a myth)

GCAP started around the same time (UK & Japan discussions in 2017) so this is pretty normal for complex multi-national projects.

 

[Ainen]

Now will it be as good as F-47? It doesn’t need to be. The benchmark for 6th gen on the export market and in combat will be GCAP and what comes out of China and Dassault is not lagging behind those technologically.

Well, F-47 is built as air superiority silver bullet; everything else comes second.

France needs omnirole aircraft, replacing Rafale. It needed one before, it still needs one now. With the downfall of FCAS, it'll likely be a logical continuation of Rafale line.
In it's own way, it'll likely be as good or better than F-47, as it's indeed a very wide focused aircraft. There's no change in these requirements, be it before or after; if anything, export potential of a slightly smaller aircraft will likely be way better.

Germany...Germany needed large aircraft, but not really a normal fighter-bomber(F-35 is here). More like GCAP, it was effectively an "Ural bomber". With trends going current way and after the yesterday's video (I do think it's serious enough to use it as current basis), Airbus may decide to go for a direct Eurofigher replacement instead - without jumping an entire class upwards.

P.s. I am unsure about GCAP though. With the way things unfold in UK, against immediate and urgent need in Japan, that program may not end up any more successful than FCAS.

 

[Archibald]

France can't even come up with an engine comparable to the WS-19 now. In fact, its engine technology may bethe worst among the several countries that have mastered fighter jet engine technology.

Much like @EmoBirb you don't know what you're talking about. Zero clue.

 

[Michel Van]

Where is that stated? Because this a new thing that wasn't reported by anyone before.

Welt Nachrichtensender mention this in there news

 

[kqcke for you]

Welt Nachrichtensender mention this in there news

As far as i can tell they don't have it written anywhere tho. I would take it with a grain of salt rn

 

[kqcke for you]

Actually, I only have one question: Can Europeans really overcome their differences in interests, especially now? It seems like they're not in a big hurry to get the sixth-generation fighter.

Considering how hard it is for 2 political different parties to agree within a country well...... Its not easy

 

[kqcke for you]

I wanted to post this in GCAP but thats locked so:

While germany might not join GCAP there is still a way for both sides to profit. I think we all agree that engines are THE bottleneck germany is facing so maybe just maybe there could be a deal where they buy themself into it. Either directly to the engine or the needed technology / access to it for there own engine. This could Provider GCAP with funding to cover some aspects of UKs deficit and would help the forming german team.

 

[Ainen]

I think we all agree that engines are THE bottleneck germany is facing so maybe just maybe there could be a deal where they buy themself into it.

Is EJ200/230 that insufficient?

 

[kqcke for you]

Is EJ200/230 that insufficient?

From what i heard there is but that was friend to friend talk so take it with a boat of salt. Atleast for EJ200 because EJ230 never really took of from the ground.

That said the bigger problem could be IP as they don't own all of it and the other 2, who are GCAP member, could do pretty mutch the same for EJ IP. That said i believe it should help all if there is a lot of common parts trought all projects.

Edit:
This could be changed with the P3Ec Step 3 EJ200 variant but there newely bought so idk thats outside of my wisdom Budget

 

[Scott Kenny]

Is EJ200/230 that insufficient?

GCAP engines look to need to be in the late-F110/F119 to F135 power range, 35-45klbs thrust.

So yeah, EJ200 is way too little engine unless someone wants to stick 3-4 of them in the GCAP?

 

[kqcke for you]

DLR-FFD asked for like ~120kN dry and 180kN wet and didn't EJ-230 concept barely reach 120kN wet?

 

[BonPlan2]

France never produced aircraft that were more formidable than contemporary American or Soviet designs, but they always competed with them on other merits outside of straight up performance.

Mirage III was over Mig21. Ask old egyptian and syrian pilots....
Mirage F1 killed some iranian F14. A light French fighter against a heavy US marvellous one, with formidable air to air long range missile...
The sole F16 destroyed during a air to air fight (before ukrainian war) was the fact of a greek Mirage 2000.

Have a nice day noob.

 

[BonPlan2]

Is EJ200/230 that insufficient?

is EJ230 something else than a paper project ?
Even if it is a reality, it is short on thrust.
And, over all, there are intelectual property problems. Are GB, Spain, Italy OK to give germany full access ? It was the main reason the M88 was chosen to be used for the imagined SCAF prototyp.

 

[kqcke for you]

is EJ230 something else than a paper project ?
Even if it is a reality, it is short on thrust.

Thrust is one of the lesser problems. Energy production and cooling seems to be the larger devil there facing rn but this is specificely the case for Eurofighter upgrades as i got told.

And, over all, there are intelectual property problems. Are GB, Spain, Italy OK to give germany full access ?

Spain should be considering there a Partner in this project. If they didn't then they shoot there own foot while trying to run.

 

[BonPlan2]

Thrust is one of the lesser problems. Energy production and cooling seems to be the larger devil there facing rn but this is specificely the case for Eurofighter upgrades as i got told.

Energy, so cooling, is taken on thrust, so it is linked.

 

[galgot]

Mirage III was over Mig21. Ask old egyptian and syrian pilots....
Mirage F1 killed some iranian F14. A light cheese eater fighter against a heavy US marvellous one, with formidable air to air long range missile...
The sole F16 destroyed during a air to air fight (before ukrainian war) was the fact of a greek Mirage 2000.

Have a nice day noob.

The first MiG-21 ever shot down was by a Mirage IIICJ in Nov 1964.
Took a bit more than 2 years later for US jets in Vietnam to shoot their first MiG-21 (Op Bolo, Jan 1967).
Not that it's super important, but if we play games, shows that these formidable F-105/F-104/F-4s US jets where a bit late in the MiG-21 killing game... Just to say that something doesn't need to be "formidable" to be effective.
Anyway, off topic.

 

[Jemiba]

The title of this thread involves „… Speculation and Theories“, but, though not stated explicitely, it should still be about FCAS/SCAF/FSAC !

Who shot down whom always is interesting, but AFAIK the FCAS still shot down nobody, so this discussion maybe is a bit over the top

 

[helmutkohl]

Since we’re in the topic of staying on topic,
This thread was created by me so people have a place to speculate about fcas, while the main thread is news only.

Yet despite the news only being in the thread title, and repeat moderator posts that all non news posts will be deleted, we still keep having people go off topic including those who have been thread banned in the past.

It’s amazing how people can’t read nor are they willing to post in this thread which is open to speculation

 

[Scott Kenny]

Okay, speculation and theories:

SCAF and FAXX are very similar in overall limits and mission, save one: SCAF must carry ASN4G. This basically only matters in that the main weapons bays move to being tandem in the centerline instead of what our SPF designers have been working on for FAXX with the bays in parallel.

Do we think it might be possible for France/Dassault to make FAXX under license, if the whole SCAF program collapses?

 

[helmutkohl]

if it was the 80s I could see it potentially happening but now, no. France wants full sovereignty over its aircraft.

 

[Scott Kenny]

if it was the 80s I could see it potentially happening but now, no. France wants full sovereignty over its aircraft.

Okay, let's reverse the question: do we think Dassault might pitch SCAF in the FAXX contest if FAXX continues to take forever to be decided?

 

[helmutkohl]

US arms industry will make sure that doesn’t happen

 

[Scott Kenny]

US arms industry will make sure that doesn’t happen

Even when the US versions are made in the US?

 

[Cjc]

Since we’re in the topic of staying on topic,
This thread was created by me so people have a place to speculate about fcas, while the main thread is news only.

Yet despite the news only being in the thread title, and repeat moderator posts that all non news posts will be deleted, we still keep having people go off topic including those who have been thread banned in the past.

It’s amazing how people can’t read nor are they willing to post in this thread which is open to speculation

Well it seems at this point what people want is a thread that can do both news and speculation and that trying to have that in 2 different threads just isn't working.

But as for speculation maybe Germany can replace the uk in gcap and we can get a buch of axis meams. https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/re-arming-the-uk-what-equipment-and-how-much.23925/page-41

 

[helmutkohl]

Well it seems at this point what people want is a thread that can do both news and speculation and that trying to have that in 2 different threads just isn't working.

But as for speculation maybe Germany can replace the uk in gcap and we can get a buch of axis meams. https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/re-arming-the-uk-what-equipment-and-how-much.23925/page-41

What ends up happening if you combine both in one thread is that it’ll end up going off topic and become dominated by politics. Take a look at what happened to the gcap thread. It got shut down and had to to be cleaned up. It’s easier to thread ban repeat offenders

 

[red admiral]

Okay, let's reverse the question: do we think Dassault might pitch SCAF in the FAXX contest if FAXX continues to take forever to be decided?

How can it do that if it can't even see the requirements for a US-only programme?

And the opposite way round for say NG or Boeing pitching proposals into whatever the new French 6th Gen programme gets called.

 

[Scott Kenny]

How can it do that if it can't even see the requirements for a US-only programme?

And the opposite way round for say NG or Boeing pitching proposals into whatever the new French 6th Gen programme gets called.

Are they national-only programs?

 

[Reddington777]

Are they national-only programs?

They can offer it but probably not with any success.

Besides, depending on just how much F/A-XX is designed around that strike role, france neither needs it nor does the french FCAS fulfill that same role for the US.

Not about to get into F/A-XX design requirements here though.

I think france is probably better off on its own requirements wise. I really cant think of another partner who would share requirments enough that it would make sense to be a partner with france without running into the same problems. Maybe India if we really had to come up with one (and even then, india is probably focusing resources on AMCA instead).

It might take them longer, but its not like they have any immediate security concerns like say ukraine does.

 

[zrav]

What do you guys think of a possible swedish-german project setup where engine, and most of sensors and systems are shared, but each nation builds a different airframe, respectively for one and two engines? Also I always wondered if MTU AE would be able to develop an engine for such a project alone. They worked on many engine projects, but always in partnerships. The announced Team Gen 6 makes it seem they believe so. Perhaps with Volvo?