Effects on the French-Israeli split not happening?

[Lascaris]

What the title says basically. Say that the Israelis handle De Gaulle's sensitivities a little better in 1967 there is no embargo and the French government just follows the pro--Israeli public sentiments. French-Israeli relations remain strong.

Obvious first result is that Mirage 5 is delivered to Israel, openly, hence no Nesher but what happens afterwards? Israel will still be buying F-4E and A-4 perhaps in slightly lesser numbers but this time they get accompanied by further French aircraft, probably Mirage F1 in time to serve in the Yom Kipur war?

And on the reverse, development of Mirage III was quite a bit influenced from Israeli feedback. So how is French aircraft development affected by further Israeli feedback and orders? For example Mirage 2000 start life around 1972 as Delta 1000 and as a project not intended for AdA itself. That's about the same time development of Kfir began. So it seems rather logical for the Israelis to be jumping into what became Mirage 2000 instead and the program getting pushed ahead right away from 1972. This though is going to have repercussions, not least that *Mirage 2000 becomes available by around 1979 and quite possibly it is the aircraft offered by Dassault for the deal of the century...

Then we get to the 1980s, assuming Israel bought F-15 still because the money to complete 4000 simply wasn't there, do we see Israel as a junior partner to Rafale instead of Lavi? Or the alt-Lavi being something like Novi Avion instead? And marketed by Dassault as part of a hi-lo mix with Rafale possibly?

 

[Archibald]

Mirage V, yes. They go to Israel and not Armée de l'Air, who did not wanted them in the first place. Nesher, Kfir probably never happen, as for Lavi, it will be a very different bird, if it ever exists.
It boils down to the following question: does Israel tries to build their own warplanes ?

As of 1968 the Phantom is a superior aircraft to the Mirage F1, no question about this, so in order to bridge that gap a little, maybe France put a M53 into the F1 much earlier than OTL. The M53 could have been ready much earlier than OTL.
To get an idea of what the F1 could achieve in Israeli service ITTL, see what the Iraqi did (OTL) with their F1s during Gulf War One - and they had Atar only.
By the way this mean probably no Mirage F1 for Saddam if France sticks with Israel.

As of 1971 Israel urgently needs something able to shoot down the Egyptian MiG-25R. The original F1 with Atar and the crappy R530 won't do it. But the M53 and Super 530D could be ready much earlier than OTL. Same for a pulse-doppler radar like the RDM / RDI. All three technologies (M53, Super 530D and RDI) were available in the mid-70's but too late for the F1 and too early for the 2000 - they fell into a kind of "generation gap". Israel could very well kick France in the butt to accelerate them. Pretty much what the Iraqi did OTL, their F1s were far more advanced that France own aircrafts (the EQ-5 and EQ-6 were terrific combat machines).

then there is the question of, not the Mirage 4000 but the ACF. Unlike the former, the ACF was not a private venture without a customer: it had strong support from the Armée de l'Air.

A possible scenario would be that Israel threatening to buy Phantoms push France a) to put a M53 into the Mirage F1 and b) this change the Deal of the Century enough that the ACF is saved (1975) and Israel buys it.

Rafale will always be a twin-jet, the AdA was self-obsessed with such an aircraft since 1965 and AFVG (followed by G4, G8, ACF, 4000). Israel can certainly afford some of them.

 

[Lascaris]

I don't think it is a matter of either the Phantom or Mirage F1. Phantom will be bought, the Israelis wanted a multirole aircraft with deep strike capacity and a large payload and at the time F-4E is the only game in town as far as western aircraft went for this. Mirage F1 would have a niche in the same role the Greeks used it, and the Israelis were doing with Mirage III /Nesher /Kfir after they got Phantom ie air superiority/interceptor complimentary to Phantom.

So the question is post Mirage 5 delivery ATL and in parallel to the first deliveries of F-4E do the Israelis go for one more derivative of Mirage III, perhaps with Atar 9K50 and canards or switch to F1?

 

[GTX]

I tend to agree: An Israeli Mirage F.1 should not be seen as in competition with the F-4. Rather, it would have displaced the F-16, especially if we are talking about an M53 powered version as considered in the early '70s.

Another option might be if an uninterrupted Israel-France relationship could have given support for the Mirage G8 entering service. A M53 powered version could have potentially provided an enticing acquisition here, especially if offering Israel industrial participation. Could even have countered the F-4 somewhat though probably not enough to prevent their use.

 

[Archibald]

the G8 was very specialized in strike, think Tornado GR or F-111. The ACF was more like the F-15. Israel needed both fighter and strike aspects of the Phantom - a combo of F1 and G8 then, but it would be expensive.
The Phantom is probably unavoidable for Israel as you noted. F16 and F15 fate is trickier. F1 can't compete with the former while ACF or 4000 are a match to the Eagle. Depends whether Israel can fund these two birds.

 

[von hitchofen]

Obvious first result is that Mirage 5 is delivered to Israel, openly, hence no Nesher but what happens afterwards?

Well, no Nickel Grass style operation in October 1973 (not from France, at least). Middle East goes nuclear?

 

[_Del_]

Also F-4's were funded under Peace Echo FMS/MDAP. Not sure Israel can afford as many ACF-style replacement airframes to fill that gap, especially if they are helping fund development costs along with AdA unless France is footing the bill for purchases.

 

[Lascaris]

Also F-4's were funded under Peace Echo FMS/MDAP. Not sure Israel can afford as many ACF-style replacement airframes to fill that gap, especially if they are helping fund development costs along with AdA unless France is footing the bill for purchases.

This is one of the reasons why I think the US at least partially switching to US weapons should be taken as a given. But there is a difference between switching in part to US arms and stopping to buy French arms at all. Yom Kippur is still fought by a mix of Mirages/F-4Es and A-4s (probably with more Mirages but fewer A-4s) Then it is probably a mix of Mirage F1E or *Mirage 2000 taking up the place of F-16 and Kfir.

Then you can have fun with Lavi and Rafale.

 

[kaiserd]

As noted but not really absorbed above - US military aid paid for the F-4’s, F-15’s & F-16’s AND they were superior than their French contemporaries. So unless you factor in some kind of fall out with the US and France decided it really really wants to pay for all of this equipment for Israel then none of these scenarios seem very realistic.

 

[Archibald]

As noted but not really absorbed above - US military aid paid for the F-4’s, F-15’s & F-16’s AND they were superior than their French contemporaries. So unless you factor in some kind of fall out with the US and France decided it really really wants to pay for all of this equipment for Israel then none of these scenarios seem very realistic.

I have to recognize you are correct - the 70's are probably a lost for France. Phantom, F-16 enter service on the Israeli side as superior to the Mirage F1 - the Phantom being larger and more powerful, the F-16 more advanced.
France could try and turn the tide (first time) with the Mirage 4000 against the F-15. Iraq and Saudi Arabia very nearly unlocked the aircraft OTL, maybe France would be more lucky with Israel.
As for Rafale and Lavi - no idea how that could work.
Scenario 1 - Novi Avion indeed, was a single engine, miniature Rafale...
Scenario 2 - or perhaps a Mirage 2000D/N-based solution, perhaps with the Rafale M88 and digital FBW (Mirage 2000 had M53 and analog FBW, Israel would not like them).
Let's explore scenario 2 further.
The twin-seat Mirage 2000B flew in the late 70's, the 2000N and 2000D would fit the Lavi schedule (1983-1988-1991).
Note that before committing to a 100% Israeli design, modified F-16s, F-18s and F-20s were considered... so maybe a Mirage 2000N solution could have a chance ?

 

[kaiserd]

As noted but not really absorbed above - US military aid paid for the F-4’s, F-15’s & F-16’s AND they were superior than their French contemporaries. So unless you factor in some kind of fall out with the US and France decided it really really wants to pay for all of this equipment for Israel then none of these scenarios seem very realistic.

I have to recognize you are correct - the 70's are probably a lost for France. Phantom, F-16 enter service on the Israeli side as superior to the Mirage F1 - the Phantom being larger and more powerful, the F-16 more advanced.
France could try and turn the tide (first time) with the Mirage 4000 against the F-15. Iraq and Saudi Arabia very nearly unlocked the aircraft OTL, maybe France would be more lucky with Israel.
As for Rafale and Lavi - no idea how that could work.
Scenario 1 - Novi Avion indeed, was a single engine, miniature Rafale...
Scenario 2 - or perhaps a Mirage 2000D/N-based solution, perhaps with the Rafale M88 and digital FBW (Mirage 2000 had M53 and analog FBW, Israel would not like them).
Let's explore scenario 2 further.
The twin-seat Mirage 2000B flew in the late 70's, the 2000N and 2000D would fit the Lavi schedule (1983-1988-1991).
Note that before committing to a 100% Israeli design, modified F-16s, F-18s and F-20s were considered... so maybe a Mirage 2000N solution could have a chance ?

The point about the US aircraft being selected by Israel was (1) as they were as good or better than their international competitors, and (2) the US were/ are paying for almost literally everything - the development of the aircraft and then via military aid the purchase price etc.
The point of cancellation for the Lavi was when the US stopped helping to pay for it.
Hence unless the US (or France itself) provided similar terms for purchasing French combat aircraft then why would they buy French combat aircraft? The anomaly isn't the time after Israel stopped buying French combat aircraft but the relatively limited space of time where buying/ providing French combat aircraft made perfect sense to everyone involved.
To give a contemporary example would, everything else being equal, buying more F-15s really make more sense for Israel than, saying, buying Typhoons or Rafales? But the point is that everything else is far from equal and for numerous political, financial and other very impactfull reasons Israel is now tied to the US for such equipment (and was so tied when choosing the F-15, F-16, & F-35; the F-4 is slightly more debatable but only barely).

 

[Archibald]

pisse vinaigre !

depends if the Nesher / Kfir / Lavi saga happens. Israel indigenous designs were a direct consequence of the split with the French. Probably not happening here considering the country limited resources.

If that still happen then a two-seat Mirage 2000 for ground attack (some kind of 2000D/N variation) can replace both Kfir C2 and early Lavi designs - since it flew in the early 80's - at the Kfir / Lavi junction.

 

[Lascaris]

The point about the US aircraft being selected by Israel was (1) as they were as good or better than their international competitors, and (2) the US were/ are paying for almost literally everything - the development of the aircraft and then via military aid the purchase price etc.
The point of cancellation for the Lavi was when the US stopped helping to pay for it.
Hence unless the US (or France itself) provided similar terms for purchasing French combat aircraft then why would they buy French combat aircraft? The anomaly isn't the time after Israel stopped buying French combat aircraft but the relatively limited space of time where buying/ providing French combat aircraft made perfect sense to everyone involved.
To give a contemporary example would, everything else being equal, buying more F-15s really make more sense for Israel than, saying, buying Typhoons or Rafales? But the point is that everything else is far from equal and for numerous political, financial and other very impactfull reasons Israel is now tied to the US for such equipment (and was so tied when choosing the F-15, F-16, & F-35; the F-4 is slightly more debatable but only barely).

The third point was that as long as France was willing to sell stuff to Israel the US found it convenient not to be in the forefront of military sales to the Israelis, as it eased its relations with the Arabs, at least somewhat. After 1967 it was not a matter of Israel selecting US aircraft over their French counterparts. It was a matter of US aircraft being effectively the only game in town as noone else in the west was willing to sell.

If France is still an option, the US policy won't be necessarily changing as fast.

 

[bechar06]

Please: is there anywhere in secret-projects another forum about MIRAGE 5J for Israel ?... the 50 single seat 5J and the 2 double-seat 5DJ ?
I am looking for PICTURES about the 5J and 5DJ when stored at BA-279 Chateaudin Air Base

Summary from english wikipedia: "Rising tensions in the Middle East led French President Charles de Gaulle to embargo the Israeli Mirage 5s on 3 June 1967. The Mirages continued to roll off the production line, even though they were embargoed, and by 1968 the batch was complete and the Israelis had provided final payments.
In late 1969, the Israelis, who had pilots in France testing the aircraft, requested that the aircraft be transferred to Corsica, in theory to allow them to continue flight training during the winter. The French government became suspicious when the Israelis also tried to obtain long-range fuel tanks and cancelled the move. The Israelis finally gave up trying to acquire the aircraft and accepted a refund.
Some sources claim that cooperation with France resumed outside the public's eye and Israel received 50 Mirage 5s in crates from the French Air Force, while the French took over the 50 aircraft originally intended for Israel, as Mirage 5Fs. Officially, Israel claimed to have built the aircraft after obtaining complete blueprints, naming them IAI Nesher. "

 

[dan_inbox]

I have this photo of a Mirage 5J before they became 5F.
It was taken in France, during a visit by the late journalist ישעיהו בן-פורת (in Latin Yeshayahu Ben-Porat).
However I don't know whether it was at Chateaudun specifically or elsewhere.

 

[Archibald]

Please: is there anywhere in secret-projects another forum about MIRAGE 5J for Israel ?... the 50 single seat 5J and the 2 double-seat 5DJ ?
I am looking for PICTURES about the 5J and 5DJ when stored at BA-279 Chateaudin Air Base

Summary from english wikipedia: "Rising tensions in the Middle East led French President Charles de Gaulle to embargo the Israeli Mirage 5s on 3 June 1967. The Mirages continued to roll off the production line, even though they were embargoed, and by 1968 the batch was complete and the Israelis had provided final payments.
In late 1969, the Israelis, who had pilots in France testing the aircraft, requested that the aircraft be transferred to Corsica, in theory to allow them to continue flight training during the winter. The French government became suspicious when the Israelis also tried to obtain long-range fuel tanks and cancelled the move. The Israelis finally gave up trying to acquire the aircraft and accepted a refund.
Some sources claim that cooperation with France resumed outside the public's eye and Israel received 50 Mirage 5s in crates from the French Air Force, while the French took over the 50 aircraft originally intended for Israel, as Mirage 5Fs. Officially, Israel claimed to have built the aircraft after obtaining complete blueprints, naming them IAI Nesher. "

slight nitpick: it is Chateaudun air base, not Chateaudin. It is somewhat France Davis Monthan AFB, where we park all the retired military aircraft... Wikipedia you quote most of the story right AFAIK.

Mirage 5F en service - Escadrilles

Un chasseur ‘temps clair’ pour l’Armée de l’Air Juin 1967 : aux mains des pilotes israéliens, les Mirage IIIC font le ménage lors de la guerre des Six Jours. L’Etat hébreu a 50 autres Mirage en commande, le chasseur delta de chez Dassault commence à se vendre comme des petits pains. Les futurs...

www.escadrilles.org

 

[galgot]

Please: is there anywhere in secret-projects another forum about MIRAGE 5J for Israel ?... the 50 single seat 5J and the 2 double-seat 5DJ ?
I am looking for PICTURES about the 5J and 5DJ when stored at BA-279 Chateaudin Air Base

Summary from english wikipedia: "Rising tensions in the Middle East led French President Charles de Gaulle to embargo the Israeli Mirage 5s on 3 June 1967. The Mirages continued to roll off the production line, even though they were embargoed, and by 1968 the batch was complete and the Israelis had provided final payments.
In late 1969, the Israelis, who had pilots in France testing the aircraft, requested that the aircraft be transferred to Corsica, in theory to allow them to continue flight training during the winter. The French government became suspicious when the Israelis also tried to obtain long-range fuel tanks and cancelled the move. The Israelis finally gave up trying to acquire the aircraft and accepted a refund.
Some sources claim that cooperation with France resumed outside the public's eye and Israel received 50 Mirage 5s in crates from the French Air Force, while the French took over the 50 aircraft originally intended for Israel, as Mirage 5Fs. Officially, Israel claimed to have built the aircraft after obtaining complete blueprints, naming them IAI Nesher. "

I have this one, can’t remember were I got it.
Don’t know if it dates from before or after the embargo. Could date from the test flights.
I doubt one can find picts of -5J being stored at Chateaudun, the affair was quite politically sensitive at the time, so taking any pictures would have been strictly forbidden.


(Love this plane)

Also I post here links to picts from this site :

The Super Mystère Collection: Clickable Gallery

Cause I think the owner doesn’t like his images being posted directly on forums.

Dassault Mirage 5J N° 12, becoming M5 F "13-SA", EC 3/13 Auvergne :

The Super Mystère Collection

The Super Mystère Collection

The Super Mystère Collection

The Super Mystère Collection

The Super Mystère Collection

The Super Mystère Collection

Note how it's labeled "Mirage M5" on the nose, while it's still "Mirage 5J" on the rudder...

For Mirage 5J/Nesher/Kfir history, I recommend acig.info forum (you’ll have to register), specially these threads :
MirageIII/5 =http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=806&start=120
Nesher/Dagger... =http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=917&start=75
Kfir =http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=824&start=75
Atar engine in Israel = http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7102&hilit=kfir

 

[dan_inbox]

Beautiful photo, showing the 5J as the fighter-bomber it was meant to be.

Talking about the Super Mystere collextion, do you have any news about Jean-Michel? Last I knew, about 10 years ago, his health was failing...

 

[galgot]

Beautiful photo, showing the 5J as the fighter-bomber it was meant to be.

Talking about the Super Mystere collextion, do you have any news about Jean-Michel? Last I knew, about 10 years ago, his health was failing...

No, sorry, i don't know him in person. Just followed his posts on other forums.
His collection is incredible.

 

[Cjc]

As noted but not really absorbed above - US military aid paid for the F-4’s, F-15’s & F-16’s AND they were superior than their French contemporaries. So unless you factor in some kind of fall out with the US and France decided it really really wants to pay for all of this equipment for Israel then none of these scenarios seem very realistic.

I have to recognize you are correct - the 70's are probably a lost for France. Phantom, F-16 enter service on the Israeli side as superior to the Mirage F1 - the Phantom being larger and more powerful, the F-16 more advanced.
France could try and turn the tide (first time) with the Mirage 4000 against the F-15. Iraq and Saudi Arabia very nearly unlocked the aircraft OTL, maybe France would be more lucky with Israel.
As for Rafale and Lavi - no idea how that could work.
Scenario 1 - Novi Avion indeed, was a single engine, miniature Rafale...
Scenario 2 - or perhaps a Mirage 2000D/N-based solution, perhaps with the Rafale M88 and digital FBW (Mirage 2000 had M53 and analog FBW, Israel would not like them).
Let's explore scenario 2 further.
The twin-seat Mirage 2000B flew in the late 70's, the 2000N and 2000D would fit the Lavi schedule (1983-1988-1991).
Note that before committing to a 100% Israeli design, modified F-16s, F-18s and F-20s were considered... so maybe a Mirage 2000N solution could have a chance ?

The point about the US aircraft being selected by Israel was (1) as they were as good or better than their international competitors, and (2) the US were/ are paying for almost literally everything - the development of the aircraft and then via military aid the purchase price etc.
The point of cancellation for the Lavi was when the US stopped helping to pay for it.
Hence unless the US (or France itself) provided similar terms for purchasing French combat aircraft then why would they buy French combat aircraft? The anomaly isn't the time after Israel stopped buying French combat aircraft but the relatively limited space of time where buying/ providing French combat aircraft made perfect sense to everyone involved.
To give a contemporary example would, everything else being equal, buying more F-15s really make more sense for Israel than, saying, buying Typhoons or Rafales? But the point is that everything else is far from equal and for numerous political, financial and other very impactfull reasons Israel is now tied to the US for such equipment (and was so tied when choosing the F-15, F-16, & F-35; the F-4 is slightly more debatable but only barely).

It sould be noted that the US only stared paying for isreal aircraft after nickel grass, before that isreal had to pay for everything them selfs ( intestingly enough, after the us had basically stoped doing that everywhere else in the world)

 

[Pioneer]

I'm thinking the IDF would have adopted VAB APC's and at least the AMX-30 AuF1 155mm SPH turret (probably on Centurion chassis)......

Regards
Pioneer

 

[lancer21]

I was pondering this scenario, what i see happening is probably the israelis getting 100 Mirage-5s (they bought 50 with option for 50 more as i understand). So they will be probably replacing rather than upgrading the SMB-2 with all those Mirages around. Nesher is really just a Mirage smuggled to Israel in parts, so in this scenario they will be delivered openly and probably quicker. They will be in a slightly better position in 1973 with the extra 50 Mirages replacing the 20-something SMB-2s.

Then, possibly the Kfir might be powered by an Atar 09K50, and be either a Mirage-5 derivative, or possibly a Mirage F1 built under licence, maybe based on F1A? Recall they took the crappy Cyranos off their Mirages, would they find any use even for the Cyrano IV and Super-530F, with those free F-15s and F-16s coming from the americans?

Maybe, just maybe they might be interested in putting american radars in the F1 until israeli radars like the Elta-2021 or 2032 might be available? Possibly they might be interested in putting the M53 engine in at least part of the ATL 200 or so F1 Kfir run, so one can sort of imagine an F1-M53 with american/israeli avionics, if the sugardaddy will allow it.

But... if France still remains cosy with Israel, what about those huge and juicy libyan, iraqi and other ME contracts for Mirage-5s and F1s and later 2000s, maybe even pakistani ones? As i understand many of those contracts were paid for with cheap oil, am i wrong here? Israel can't offer oil.

I don't know how this could affect Lavi, it could have an M53, or it could be a licenced Mirage-2000 or maybe sort of a single engine Rafale, but since the OTL Lavi was pretty much bankrolled by the americans which also killed it, would they have money for any other ATL Lavi? Likely not.

 

[Archibald]

Yup. By 1973 France would find itself "le cul entre deux chaises" as the oil shock wrecked the economy. France then (OTL) traded huge weapon sales for cheap oil (but also went nuclear to try and ease the burden, for energy at least - doesn't work for transportation).
France had huge arm deals with Iraq and Lybia, Israel wouldn't like that. Then again, they were not really bothered by US - Saudi relationship for oil, except when F-15s were sold to the Saudis.

Would be a very weird situation, then again - OTL's GW1 with French Mirages vs Iraqi Mirages was no better.

The usual troubled business of huge arm sales.

Cyranos radars gradually improved with time. Mirage III sets were bad, Mirage F1 Cyrano IV was a marked improvement, good enough to screw MiG-23s (SAAF) and scare Tomcats (Iraq).
Super 530F was a massive improvement over R-530 (as the F-15's AIM-7F was 10 times better than old-gen Phantom Sparrows AIM-7 A/B/C/E)

what was lacking was pulse-doppler, the F1 did not have a true one, only Super 530D on Mirage 2000 RDI (RDM = Radar De Merde, also known as TEFAL, like the frying pans: it heats but don't lock).

 

[helmutkohl]

I don't know if Mirage 2000 would have happened in this scenario but it would have certainly been a looker
and perhaps Israel would have bought the D and even N? version as well.

 

[lordroel]

What the title says basically. Say that the Israelis handle De Gaulle's sensitivities a little better in 1967 there is no embargo and the French government just follows the pro--Israeli public sentiments. French-Israeli relations remain strong.

Obvious first result is that Mirage 5 is delivered to Israel, openly, hence no Nesher but what happens afterwards? Israel will still be buying F-4E and A-4 perhaps in slightly lesser numbers but this time they get accompanied by further French aircraft, probably Mirage F1 in time to serve in the Yom Kipur war?

And on the reverse, development of Mirage III was quite a bit influenced from Israeli feedback. So how is French aircraft development affected by further Israeli feedback and orders? For example Mirage 2000 start life around 1972 as Delta 1000 and as a project not intended for AdA itself. That's about the same time development of Kfir began. So it seems rather logical for the Israelis to be jumping into what became Mirage 2000 instead and the program getting pushed ahead right away from 1972. This though is going to have repercussions, not least that *Mirage 2000 becomes available by around 1979 and quite possibly it is the aircraft offered by Dassault for the deal of the century...

Then we get to the 1980s, assuming Israel bought F-15 still because the money to complete 4000 simply wasn't there, do we see Israel as a junior partner to Rafale instead of Lavi? Or the alt-Lavi being something like Novi Avion instead? And marketed by Dassault as part of a hi-lo mix with Rafale possibly?

​

Israeli buying the AMX-30, ore is the tank worse than the chieftain.

 

[CV12Hornet]

I think the French still being willing to sell to Israel might butterfly Phantom sales entirely. Per Joe Baugher:

Israel first expressed an interest in the Phantom as far back as 1965, but such interest was politely rebuffed at that time. However, losses during the Six-Day War of 1967, the imposition of an arms embargo on Israel by France, and the flow of Soviet-bloc weapons to Israel's enemies caused the US State Department to change its mind. On January 7, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson gave his approval to the sale of Phantoms to Israel.

The delivery of Phantoms to Israel became an issue during the US Presidential campaign of 1968. Robert Kennedy's support of the Phantom sale to Israel may have played a role in his assassination. Following the election, the departing President Lyndon Johnson confirmed the sale of 44 F-4Es and six RF-4Es to Israel under Peace Echo I.

Skyhawk sales would go through. The Skyhawk was authorized for Israel before the French embargo.

So in the late 1960s the Israelis find themselves in need of two new aircraft: an air superiority aircraft to replace their Mirage IIIs and maintain technical superiority, and a deep strike aircraft in the absence of the Phantom. That air superiority aircraft has a number of options available to it: a Spey-powered Kfir (as was considered IOTL), Mirage F1 interceptors, potentially the Mirage F3. Personally, I like the idea of a Spey Kfir.

For a strike aircraft, however, I'm going to zig a little and plug the Mirage F2. This would not be the first time Dassault built a custom aircraft for Israel, and given the sheer number of Phantoms bought there's enough potential orders for Dassault to be comfortable going forward with the airplane. Even with Israel getting military assistance, the single-engine F2 should be cheaper than the Phantom.

As for the Teen series aircraft, F-16 sales are likely to continue, especially if the Camp David Accords still happen. However, with heavier US resistance to selling Israel advance weaponry, that's likely to scupper F-15 sales. This increases the importance of the Kfir, because the only viable alternative is the Mirage 4000, and that's going to take several more years to get into service. So we end up with a dynamic of a high/low mix, with the US supplying the low and France the high.

 

[Archibald]

For a strike aircraft, however, I'm going to zig a little and plug the Mirage F2. This would not be the first time Dassault built a custom aircraft for Israel, and given the sheer number of Phantoms bought there's enough potential orders for Dassault to be comfortable going forward with the airplane. Even with Israel getting military assistance, the single-engine F2 should be cheaper than the Phantom.

You do know that the F2 was, OTL, proposed to Israel in 1965-66 ? For the exact reasons you mentionned ? It was created for them as much as for the French.

SO-4050 Vautour with a massive avionics upgrade, and Spey instead of old Atars... Tsikklon or Tsyklon, never got the Israeli name right. Was proposed but instantly shot down by Dassault, De Gaulle... no way the Vautour makes a startling return and ridiculize (altogether) the Mirage IIIE, IV, F2, V, AFVG and Jaguar ! (just like the Buccaneer with the same engines).

 

[Lascaris]

For a strike aircraft, however, I'm going to zig a little and plug the Mirage F2. This would not be the first time Dassault built a custom aircraft for Israel, and given the sheer number of Phantoms bought there's enough potential orders for Dassault to be comfortable going forward with the airplane. Even with Israel getting military assistance, the single-engine F2 should be cheaper than the Phantom.

You do know that the F2 was, OTL, proposed to Israel in 1965-66 ? For the exact reasons you mentionned ? It was created for them as much as for the French.

SO-4050 Vautour with a massive avionics upgrade, and Spey instead of old Atars... Tsikklon or Tsyklon, never got the Israeli name right. Was proposed but instantly shot down by Dassault, De Gaulle... no way the Vautour makes a startling return and ridiculize (altogether) the Mirage IIIE, IV, F2, V, AFVG and Jaguar ! (just like the Buccaneer with the same engines).

Hadn't the Israelis supposedly ordered Mirage IV? Says so in French secret projects at least...

 

[Lascaris]

Skyhawk sales would go through. The Skyhawk was authorized for Israel before the French embargo.

So in the late 1960s the Israelis find themselves in need of two new aircraft: an air superiority aircraft to replace their Mirage IIIs and maintain technical superiority, and a deep strike aircraft in the absence of the Phantom. That air superiority aircraft has a number of options available to it: a Spey-powered Kfir (as was considered IOTL), Mirage F1 interceptors, potentially the Mirage F3. Personally, I like the idea of a Spey Kfir.

Actually I think that a continued Israeli connection makes an obvious case for Mirage F1-53 early. Or if they do buy Mirage F2 and that goes into production then why not put into production Mirage F3 instead of Mirage F1 as well?

 

[CV12Hornet]

You do know that the F2 was, OTL, proposed to Israel in 1965-66 ? For the exact reasons you mentionned ? It was created for them as much as for the French.

SO-4050 Vautour with a massive avionics upgrade, and Spey instead of old Atars... Tsikklon or Tsyklon, never got the Israeli name right. Was proposed but instantly shot down by Dassault, De Gaulle... no way the Vautour makes a startling return and ridiculize (altogether) the Mirage IIIE, IV, F2, V, AFVG and Jaguar ! (just like the Buccaneer with the same engines).

I didn't, actually! That makes a ton of sense, though it's good to get some confirmation.

Actually I think that a continued Israeli connection makes an obvious case for Mirage F1-53 early. Or if they do buy Mirage F2 and that goes into production then why not put into production Mirage F3 instead of Mirage F1 as well?

The F1-M53 is IMO out on time grounds; whereas the M53 engine only started design in 1968*, while a TF30-powered F2 was already flying by then. As for the F3, that's a question of time/politics. How much stock does Israel put into military-industrial self-sufficiency in this time period? Which would be faster to bring into service, a Spey Kfir or the F3? There are also technical aspects; the Israelis generally preferred smaller, maneuverable air-superiority fighters, hence using the Mirage as their primary air-superiority platform until the F-15 and the Phantom fleet being primarily used for ground attack. How maneuverable would the F3 be in comparison to the Kfir?

Certainly, the F3 is a strong possibility. But I doubt we'd be able to call for certain which option the Israelis would have picked, at this time over 50 years later. If this was for a story/timeline I'd tell the author to pick one, they'd be sufficiently justified either way.

* I have my doubts about accelerating M53 development. SNECMA seems to have needed the experience of developing jointly the TF306 and M45 engines to bring in institutional knowledge of modern turbofan engines.

 

[Archibald]

The "launch window" is narrow and pretty interesting.

The breakdown in the french-Israeli relationship relates to the six day war, June 1967.
Now, this happened at a peculiar moment in Dassault history: what I call "the prototype pornfest".
- VSTOL Mirages flew and were abandonned in 1965-66
- STOL: VG vs swept wing replaced it
- and thus, in the years 1966-67...
a) Mirage F2 flew as a long range attack aircraft In June 1966
b) France got out of NATO in spring 1966 and requested an interceptor
c) Mirage F3 was picked as a scaled-down, single-seat F2, interceptor
d) Mirage F1 was flown on December 23, 1966 as a scaled-down, Atar F3
(private venture), interceptor
e) Mirage F3 was canned in April 1967 for the F1, because US engine
f) in May 1967 the F1-01 prototype crashed and killed René Bigand
g) In November 1967 the Mirage G flew as a VG-F2-demonstrator
h) plus the Mirage IIIE, V, the last Mirage IV (production line closed next year)
...
So had the split not happened, Israel would have had a crapton of Dassault prototypes to chose from.

Best pick among all these would be an "intermediate" between TF30-F3 and M53-F1. Essentially a F3 with a boosted M53-5 = a F1 with M53 from day one.
M53 was started in 1968 as a low-end to TF306E, not a real successor: an intermediate turbofan that could be swapped for an Atar in the "rear end" of the F1 and also of the coming G4 / G8: the French Tornados.