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Effects on the French-Israeli split not happening?

Lascaris

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What the title says basically. Say that the Israelis handle De Gaulle's sensitivities a little better in 1967 there is no embargo and the French government just follows the pro--Israeli public sentiments. French-Israeli relations remain strong.

Obvious first result is that Mirage 5 is delivered to Israel, openly, hence no Nesher but what happens afterwards? Israel will still be buying F-4E and A-4 perhaps in slightly lesser numbers but this time they get accompanied by further French aircraft, probably Mirage F1 in time to serve in the Yom Kipur war?

And on the reverse, development of Mirage III was quite a bit influenced from Israeli feedback. So how is French aircraft development affected by further Israeli feedback and orders? For example Mirage 2000 start life around 1972 as Delta 1000 and as a project not intended for AdA itself. That's about the same time development of Kfir began. So it seems rather logical for the Israelis to be jumping into what became Mirage 2000 instead and the program getting pushed ahead right away from 1972. This though is going to have repercussions, not least that *Mirage 2000 becomes available by around 1979 and quite possibly it is the aircraft offered by Dassault for the deal of the century...

Then we get to the 1980s, assuming Israel bought F-15 still because the money to complete 4000 simply wasn't there, do we see Israel as a junior partner to Rafale instead of Lavi? Or the alt-Lavi being something like Novi Avion instead? And marketed by Dassault as part of a hi-lo mix with Rafale possibly?
 

Archibald

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Mirage V, yes. They go to Israel and not Armée de l'Air, who did not wanted them in the first place. Nesher, Kfir probably never happen, as for Lavi, it will be a very different bird, if it ever exists.
It boils down to the following question: does Israel tries to build their own warplanes ?

As of 1968 the Phantom is a superior aircraft to the Mirage F1, no question about this, so in order to bridge that gap a little, maybe France put a M53 into the F1 much earlier than OTL. The M53 could have been ready much earlier than OTL.
To get an idea of what the F1 could achieve in Israeli service ITTL, see what the Iraqi did (OTL) with their F1s during Gulf War One - and they had Atar only.
By the way this mean probably no Mirage F1 for Saddam if France sticks with Israel.

As of 1971 Israel urgently needs something able to shoot down the Egyptian MiG-25R. The original F1 with Atar and the crappy R530 won't do it. But the M53 and Super 530D could be ready much earlier than OTL. Same for a pulse-doppler radar like the RDM / RDI. All three technologies (M53, Super 530D and RDI) were available in the mid-70's but too late for the F1 and too early for the 2000 - they fell into a kind of "generation gap". Israel could very well kick France in the butt to accelerate them. Pretty much what the Iraqi did OTL, their F1s were far more advanced that France own aircrafts (the EQ-5 and EQ-6 were terrific combat machines).

then there is the question of, not the Mirage 4000 but the ACF. Unlike the former, the ACF was not a private venture without a customer: it had strong support from the Armée de l'Air.

A possible scenario would be that Israel threatening to buy Phantoms push France a) to put a M53 into the Mirage F1 and b) this change the Deal of the Century enough that the ACF is saved (1975) and Israel buys it.

Rafale will always be a twin-jet, the AdA was self-obsessed with such an aircraft since 1965 and AFVG (followed by G4, G8, ACF, 4000). Israel can certainly afford some of them.
 

Lascaris

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I don't think it is a matter of either the Phantom or Mirage F1. Phantom will be bought, the Israelis wanted a multirole aircraft with deep strike capacity and a large payload and at the time F-4E is the only game in town as far as western aircraft went for this. Mirage F1 would have a niche in the same role the Greeks used it, and the Israelis were doing with Mirage III /Nesher /Kfir after they got Phantom ie air superiority/interceptor complimentary to Phantom.

So the question is post Mirage 5 delivery ATL and in parallel to the first deliveries of F-4E do the Israelis go for one more derivative of Mirage III, perhaps with Atar 9K50 and canards or switch to F1?
 

GTX

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I tend to agree: An Israeli Mirage F.1 should not be seen as in competition with the F-4. Rather, it would have displaced the F-16, especially if we are talking about an M53 powered version as considered in the early '70s.

Another option might be if an uninterrupted Israel-France relationship could have given support for the Mirage G8 entering service. A M53 powered version could have potentially provided an enticing acquisition here, especially if offering Israel industrial participation. Could even have countered the F-4 somewhat though probably not enough to prevent their use.
 

Archibald

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the G8 was very specialized in strike, think Tornado GR or F-111. The ACF was more like the F-15. Israel needed both fighter and strike aspects of the Phantom - a combo of F1 and G8 then, but it would be expensive.
The Phantom is probably unavoidable for Israel as you noted. F16 and F15 fate is trickier. F1 can't compete with the former while ACF or 4000 are a match to the Eagle. Depends whether Israel can fund these two birds.
 

von hitchofen

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Lascaris said:
Obvious first result is that Mirage 5 is delivered to Israel, openly, hence no Nesher but what happens afterwards?
Well, no Nickel Grass style operation in October 1973 (not from France, at least). Middle East goes nuclear?
 

_Del_

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Also F-4's were funded under Peace Echo FMS/MDAP. Not sure Israel can afford as many ACF-style replacement airframes to fill that gap, especially if they are helping fund development costs along with AdA unless France is footing the bill for purchases.
 

Lascaris

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Also F-4's were funded under Peace Echo FMS/MDAP. Not sure Israel can afford as many ACF-style replacement airframes to fill that gap, especially if they are helping fund development costs along with AdA unless France is footing the bill for purchases.
This is one of the reasons why I think the US at least partially switching to US weapons should be taken as a given. But there is a difference between switching in part to US arms and stopping to buy French arms at all. Yom Kippur is still fought by a mix of Mirages/F-4Es and A-4s (probably with more Mirages but fewer A-4s) Then it is probably a mix of Mirage F1E or *Mirage 2000 taking up the place of F-16 and Kfir.

Then you can have fun with Lavi and Rafale.
 

kaiserd

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As noted but not really absorbed above - US military aid paid for the F-4’s, F-15’s & F-16’s AND they were superior than their French contemporaries. So unless you factor in some kind of fall out with the US and France decided it really really wants to pay for all of this equipment for Israel then none of these scenarios seem very realistic.
 

Archibald

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As noted but not really absorbed above - US military aid paid for the F-4’s, F-15’s & F-16’s AND they were superior than their French contemporaries. So unless you factor in some kind of fall out with the US and France decided it really really wants to pay for all of this equipment for Israel then none of these scenarios seem very realistic.
I have to recognize you are correct - the 70's are probably a lost for France. Phantom, F-16 enter service on the Israeli side as superior to the Mirage F1 - the Phantom being larger and more powerful, the F-16 more advanced.
France could try and turn the tide (first time) with the Mirage 4000 against the F-15. Iraq and Saudi Arabia very nearly unlocked the aircraft OTL, maybe France would be more lucky with Israel.
As for Rafale and Lavi - no idea how that could work.
Scenario 1 - Novi Avion indeed, was a single engine, miniature Rafale...
Scenario 2 - or perhaps a Mirage 2000D/N-based solution, perhaps with the Rafale M88 and digital FBW (Mirage 2000 had M53 and analog FBW, Israel would not like them).
Let's explore scenario 2 further.
The twin-seat Mirage 2000B flew in the late 70's, the 2000N and 2000D would fit the Lavi schedule (1983-1988-1991).
Note that before committing to a 100% Israeli design, modified F-16s, F-18s and F-20s were considered... so maybe a Mirage 2000N solution could have a chance ?
 

kaiserd

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As noted but not really absorbed above - US military aid paid for the F-4’s, F-15’s & F-16’s AND they were superior than their French contemporaries. So unless you factor in some kind of fall out with the US and France decided it really really wants to pay for all of this equipment for Israel then none of these scenarios seem very realistic.
I have to recognize you are correct - the 70's are probably a lost for France. Phantom, F-16 enter service on the Israeli side as superior to the Mirage F1 - the Phantom being larger and more powerful, the F-16 more advanced.
France could try and turn the tide (first time) with the Mirage 4000 against the F-15. Iraq and Saudi Arabia very nearly unlocked the aircraft OTL, maybe France would be more lucky with Israel.
As for Rafale and Lavi - no idea how that could work.
Scenario 1 - Novi Avion indeed, was a single engine, miniature Rafale...
Scenario 2 - or perhaps a Mirage 2000D/N-based solution, perhaps with the Rafale M88 and digital FBW (Mirage 2000 had M53 and analog FBW, Israel would not like them).
Let's explore scenario 2 further.
The twin-seat Mirage 2000B flew in the late 70's, the 2000N and 2000D would fit the Lavi schedule (1983-1988-1991).
Note that before committing to a 100% Israeli design, modified F-16s, F-18s and F-20s were considered... so maybe a Mirage 2000N solution could have a chance ?
The point about the US aircraft being selected by Israel was (1) as they were as good or better than their international competitors, and (2) the US were/ are paying for almost literally everything - the development of the aircraft and then via military aid the purchase price etc.
The point of cancellation for the Lavi was when the US stopped helping to pay for it.
Hence unless the US (or France itself) provided similar terms for purchasing French combat aircraft then why would they buy French combat aircraft? The anomaly isn't the time after Israel stopped buying French combat aircraft but the relatively limited space of time where buying/ providing French combat aircraft made perfect sense to everyone involved.
To give a contemporary example would, everything else being equal, buying more F-15s really make more sense for Israel than, saying, buying Typhoons or Rafales? But the point is that everything else is far from equal and for numerous political, financial and other very impactfull reasons Israel is now tied to the US for such equipment (and was so tied when choosing the F-15, F-16, & F-35; the F-4 is slightly more debatable but only barely).
 

Archibald

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pisse vinaigre !

depends if the Nesher / Kfir / Lavi saga happens. Israel indigenous designs were a direct consequence of the split with the French. Probably not happening here considering the country limited resources.

If that still happen then a two-seat Mirage 2000 for ground attack (some kind of 2000D/N variation) can replace both Kfir C2 and early Lavi designs - since it flew in the early 80's - at the Kfir / Lavi junction.
 

Lascaris

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The point about the US aircraft being selected by Israel was (1) as they were as good or better than their international competitors, and (2) the US were/ are paying for almost literally everything - the development of the aircraft and then via military aid the purchase price etc.
The point of cancellation for the Lavi was when the US stopped helping to pay for it.
Hence unless the US (or France itself) provided similar terms for purchasing French combat aircraft then why would they buy French combat aircraft? The anomaly isn't the time after Israel stopped buying French combat aircraft but the relatively limited space of time where buying/ providing French combat aircraft made perfect sense to everyone involved.
To give a contemporary example would, everything else being equal, buying more F-15s really make more sense for Israel than, saying, buying Typhoons or Rafales? But the point is that everything else is far from equal and for numerous political, financial and other very impactfull reasons Israel is now tied to the US for such equipment (and was so tied when choosing the F-15, F-16, & F-35; the F-4 is slightly more debatable but only barely).
The third point was that as long as France was willing to sell stuff to Israel the US found it convenient not to be in the forefront of military sales to the Israelis, as it eased its relations with the Arabs, at least somewhat. After 1967 it was not a matter of Israel selecting US aircraft over their French counterparts. It was a matter of US aircraft being effectively the only game in town as noone else in the west was willing to sell.

If France is still an option, the US policy won't be necessarily changing as fast.
 

bechar06

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Please: is there anywhere in secret-projects another forum about MIRAGE 5J for Israel ?... the 50 single seat 5J and the 2 double-seat 5DJ ?
I am looking for PICTURES about the 5J and 5DJ when stored at BA-279 Chateaudin Air Base

Summary from english wikipedia: "Rising tensions in the Middle East led French President Charles de Gaulle to embargo the Israeli Mirage 5s on 3 June 1967. The Mirages continued to roll off the production line, even though they were embargoed, and by 1968 the batch was complete and the Israelis had provided final payments.
In late 1969, the Israelis, who had pilots in France testing the aircraft, requested that the aircraft be transferred to Corsica, in theory to allow them to continue flight training during the winter. The French government became suspicious when the Israelis also tried to obtain long-range fuel tanks and cancelled the move. The Israelis finally gave up trying to acquire the aircraft and accepted a refund.
Some sources claim that cooperation with France resumed outside the public's eye and Israel received 50 Mirage 5s in crates from the French Air Force, while the French took over the 50 aircraft originally intended for Israel, as Mirage 5Fs. Officially, Israel claimed to have built the aircraft after obtaining complete blueprints, naming them IAI Nesher. "
 
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dan_inbox

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I have this photo of a Mirage 5J before they became 5F.
It was taken in France, during a visit by the late journalist ישעיהו בן-פורת (in Latin Yeshayahu Ben-Porat).
However I don't know whether it was at Chateaudun specifically or elsewhere.

Dassault Mirage 5J #9 marked M5J  + ישעיהו בן-פורת.jpg
 

Archibald

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Please: is there anywhere in secret-projects another forum about MIRAGE 5J for Israel ?... the 50 single seat 5J and the 2 double-seat 5DJ ?
I am looking for PICTURES about the 5J and 5DJ when stored at BA-279 Chateaudin Air Base

Summary from english wikipedia: "Rising tensions in the Middle East led French President Charles de Gaulle to embargo the Israeli Mirage 5s on 3 June 1967. The Mirages continued to roll off the production line, even though they were embargoed, and by 1968 the batch was complete and the Israelis had provided final payments.
In late 1969, the Israelis, who had pilots in France testing the aircraft, requested that the aircraft be transferred to Corsica, in theory to allow them to continue flight training during the winter. The French government became suspicious when the Israelis also tried to obtain long-range fuel tanks and cancelled the move. The Israelis finally gave up trying to acquire the aircraft and accepted a refund.
Some sources claim that cooperation with France resumed outside the public's eye and Israel received 50 Mirage 5s in crates from the French Air Force, while the French took over the 50 aircraft originally intended for Israel, as Mirage 5Fs. Officially, Israel claimed to have built the aircraft after obtaining complete blueprints, naming them IAI Nesher. "
slight nitpick: it is Chateaudun air base, not Chateaudin. It is somewhat France Davis Monthan AFB, where we park all the retired military aircraft... Wikipedia you quote most of the story right AFAIK.

 

galgot

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Please: is there anywhere in secret-projects another forum about MIRAGE 5J for Israel ?... the 50 single seat 5J and the 2 double-seat 5DJ ?
I am looking for PICTURES about the 5J and 5DJ when stored at BA-279 Chateaudin Air Base

Summary from english wikipedia: "Rising tensions in the Middle East led French President Charles de Gaulle to embargo the Israeli Mirage 5s on 3 June 1967. The Mirages continued to roll off the production line, even though they were embargoed, and by 1968 the batch was complete and the Israelis had provided final payments.
In late 1969, the Israelis, who had pilots in France testing the aircraft, requested that the aircraft be transferred to Corsica, in theory to allow them to continue flight training during the winter. The French government became suspicious when the Israelis also tried to obtain long-range fuel tanks and cancelled the move. The Israelis finally gave up trying to acquire the aircraft and accepted a refund.
Some sources claim that cooperation with France resumed outside the public's eye and Israel received 50 Mirage 5s in crates from the French Air Force, while the French took over the 50 aircraft originally intended for Israel, as Mirage 5Fs. Officially, Israel claimed to have built the aircraft after obtaining complete blueprints, naming them IAI Nesher. "
I have this one, can’t remember were I got it.
Don’t know if it dates from before or after the embargo. Could date from the test flights.
I doubt one can find picts of -5J being stored at Chateaudun, the affair was quite politically sensitive at the time, so taking any pictures would have been strictly forbidden.

les-premiers-Mirage-VJ.jpg
(Love this plane)

Also I post here links to picts from this site :
Cause I think the owner doesn’t like his images being posted directly on forums.

Dassault Mirage 5J N° 12, becoming M5 F "13-SA", EC 3/13 Auvergne :

Note how it's labeled "Mirage M5" on the nose, while it's still "Mirage 5J" on the rudder...

For Mirage 5J/Nesher/Kfir history, I recommend acig.info forum (you’ll have to register), specially these threads :
MirageIII/5 =http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=806&start=120
Nesher/Dagger... =http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=917&start=75
Kfir =http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=824&start=75
Atar engine in Israel = http://www.acig.info/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7102&hilit=kfir
 
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dan_inbox

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Beautiful photo, showing the 5J as the fighter-bomber it was meant to be.

Talking about the Super Mystere collextion, do you have any news about Jean-Michel? Last I knew, about 10 years ago, his health was failing...
 

galgot

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Beautiful photo, showing the 5J as the fighter-bomber it was meant to be.

Talking about the Super Mystere collextion, do you have any news about Jean-Michel? Last I knew, about 10 years ago, his health was failing...
No, sorry, i don't know him in person. Just followed his posts on other forums.
His collection is incredible.
 
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