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CSBA "Third Offset" paper

Bhurki

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I guess the lines are pretty firmly drawn.
Substantive strategic goals need to be decided before going forwards with any 'offset' regarding the doctrine and tactics employed.


America Will Only Win When China’s Regime Fails

Competition between the United States and China has begun, but how will it end? There is a bipartisan consensus that Sino-American relations will be defined primarily by rivalry across multiple regions and dimensions of statecraft for years to come. Yet there is little clarity on what U.S. leaders hope will happen after that. Washington has accepted the reality of competition without identifying a theory of victory. There is no lack of suggestions, but U.S. leaders have yet to articulate how this competition will lead to something other than unending tension and danger.
 

chimeric oncogene

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I guess the lines are pretty firmly drawn.
Has anyone wondered what the rise of India and large chunks of Africa over the next fifty years bodes for this contest?

With enough economic and military power on the board, East and South Asia will achieve a reasonable balance of power. The Chinese are unlikely to fundamentally alter the world order by 2035.

The US will, one day, need the Chinese to balance out the Indians and Africans. The world will still be around in fifty years.
 

Bhurki

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I guess the lines are pretty firmly drawn.
Has anyone wondered what the rise of India and large chunks of Africa over the next fifty years bodes for this contest?

With enough economic and military power on the board, East and South Asia will achieve a reasonable balance of power. The Chinese are unlikely to fundamentally alter the world order by 2035.

The US will, one day, need the Chinese to balance out the Indians and Africans. The world will still be around in fifty years.
India and Africa will be in no position to keep at bay, let alone, challenge China for the next 20 years. They may very well be able to defend their key defense aims, like protecting territory but being an actual strategic bulwark will take a lot more work.

The peak conflict point, however, seems to be much closer, within the next decade.


This is due to many reasons, not the least of which are -

-) China's economy surpassing that of US in exchange terms (nominal) by 2027. This gives them more power to force debt trap like situations and force the hands of many nations without suffering any major threat.

-) Their commitment to bring Taiwan under their hold within the decade.

-) Their inclination towards capturing all of SCS.

-) Rampant increase in I/P theft. (which will only increase here on if they want to skip the middle income trap of $10k gdppc)

-) Population will peak around 2023-24. They would want to capitalize on the manpower and gain strategic advantages before it starts turning really gray and ends up in a Japan like limbo with a severe dependancy ratio.

-) Their inability to go back on their prior actions.(to not disturb the image of power that CCP aims to project)

So, its not about crying wolf that US and China will collide, its just that the conditions in which it is highly probable will start to be more numerous from here onwards.
 
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Bhurki

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bobbymike

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Third Offset - Mosaic Warfare - Full Spectrum Warfare - Decision Dominance

 

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Specops is not the key to the third offset. SOCOM's procurements are almost always boutique including and especially their ISR and of little use in peer competition. DoD should provide very little Specops particular ISR.

SOCOM's capabilities are undetermined in Anti Access ops as their transport's survivability is very questionable. Specops would be wasted if spent on high intensity conflict Tgt Aquistion also.
 

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