DOD unveils technology areas that will drive 'Third Offset' investments, experimentation
Posted: December 09, 2015
The Pentagon's No. 2 official has unveiled five technology areas that will guide future investments in new weapons capabilities as well as drive organizational and operational experimentation as part of a so-called "Third Offset Strategy" -- the Defense Department's new paradigm to strengthen conventional deterrence against Russia and China.
Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work, in remarks delivered Dec. 8 via satellite from the Pentagon to an audience at the Royal United Services Institute, a London think thank, revealed the technological "elixirs" the U.S. military will pursue in its effort to harness artificial intelligence and autonomy as part of a competition among the world's greatest powers that he said was already underway.
"We have identified what we believe to be the five key technological components of the Third Offset Strategy," Work said, noting these were the product of wide-ranging analyses by a number of different influential DOD bodies over the last 18 months.
"There will be times when you must . . . turn over your fate to the learning machine," Work said, identifying "learning machines" as one of the new five technology areas. The other four: "human-machine collaboration," "assisted-human operations," "advanced manned and unmanned combat teaming," and "network-enabled autonomous weapons that are hardened for cyber-[attack] and electronic-warfare environments."
"Learning machines," he said, "will change the way we pursue intelligence; they will be utilized for indications and warning, they will be used in cases where human reaction speed is simply not up to the task -- specifically in cyber defense, electronic warfare [and] large-density missile raids."
Work said "human-machine collaboration" -- a second technology to be developed -- "has been described as teaming up human insight with the tactical acuity of human computers, to make the human more effective in the decision space."
"Assisted-human operations" are coming online in the commercial sector, such as automotive technology that warns an operator about obstacles when backing up. Work said such capabilities would evolve to allow decisions to be delegated to a machine. The U.S. military will primarily be interested in "wearable electronics -- combat apps, new types of different things that the solider, sailor, airman and Marine will carry and help them" fight.
The fourth technology area is "advanced manned and unmanned combat teaming," which Work said is "happening now and it will get more powerful in the future." The deputy defense secretary did not elaborate on the fifth technology, network-enabled autonomous weapons that are hardened for cyber and electronic warfare environments.
Work's remarks, the most detailed to date about the closely held Third Offset Strategy, made explicit what he has previously implied about nations the United States is eyeing as it develops its new warfighting framework: "This is about strengthening conventional deterrence against Russia and China," he asserted.
While DOD has identified technologies the U.S. military believes will be pivotal to the next wave of advancements in combat capability, he said the department is still in a "period of discovery," in which the United States -- as well as its competitors that also have access to much of the same technologies -- explore how to translate them into operational advantages.
"We are confident in the Third Offset technologies," he said. "We are not confident at all at how it will be manifested in organizational and operational constructs. That's the next stage of this: What will be the next AirLand Battle; the next NATO Follow-on Forces Attack; what will be the new air-to-air dominance scheme?"
Still, he said Pentagon leaders believe the five key technology areas will eventually yield wide-ranging utility.
"We believe there is an awful lot of these technological components that are going to be directly applicable across the range of military operations -- in counterterrorism; in indications and warning; in operations in the gray zone," Work said. "We believe learning machines and human-machine collaboration tools will allow us to have better indications and warning in gray-zone aggression. Although we are focused on conventional deterrence against major powers, we are absolutely confident that like the Second Offset [Strategy], many of the things are directly applicable across the range of military operations."
The Third Offset Strategy also embodies a number of other competitions. In addition to competition with Russia and China, the strategy takes into account dealing with "lesser but very capable regional" powers, such as North Korea, which is developing a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, said Work.
Advances in artificial intelligence and autonomy are commercially driven, and therefore available to potential U.S. adversaries, according to Work.
Foremost, he added, the U.S. military must prepare to win in a world in which precision munitions have proliferated. "First thing we have to do is win the guided munitions salvo competition," Work said. "If we don't, then conventional deterrence will be undermined."
Byron Callan, a defense analyst for Capital Alpha Partners, first disclosed Work's remarks in a Dec. 8 note to investors.
The Third Offset Strategy competition will also entail information management.
"In this competition we will reveal for deterrence and conceal for warfighting advantage," Work said. "Determining how to display capabilities, when to display, trying to send a signal to our adversaries will be very, very critical. It is something we excelled at in the Cold War and we have not had to worry about so much for the last 25 years."
Implementing the Third Offset Strategy, which is set to be formally unveiled in February as part of the fiscal year 2017 budget request, will require "strong, top-down governance," revitalization of wargaming with more demonstrations and experimentation, and a focus on agility and cost, according to Work.
The Pentagon will strive to buy weapon systems in quantity at the most economic cost "when we can," and will strive to reduce acquisition cycle times by "disaggregating our complex systems into simpler systems that aggregate for effect," he said.
