Comet Ison and end of civilization

[hesham]

Hi all,


of course we heard about that comet, Ison, and in the three religions on our world,
the Armageddon was the end of civilization (not all the mankind),it will come from
something like this,when a comet impacts with our lovely Earth,although in NASA,
they emphasis on the Ison destroyed by the Sun,but they came back and said;
there is a small part left,and it will return to pass beside us,so what to do ?.


In our life,we must go back and close to our mercy God,to help us,I know there is no certainly
evidence on that,but just my fears.

 

[Avimimus]

Almost all mythologies have references to massive natural disasters - it has been a common human experience - and we usually pull through them. So long as it is smaller than the K-T event - some people will survive.

There are a lot of possible disasters. The big issue is that we are pushing near are maximum agricultural output - and at some point there will be a disaster (genetically engineered crop accident, super-volcano, climatic drift) that will lead to a global depression in crop production for a few years - and we will experience the first general famine in centuries.

This is the type of situation which worries me - because people can amplify the effects (as society breaks down, people go to war etc.)

 

[hesham]

Hi Avimimus,


I hope that will not happen,even in our age,and I read article on Wikipedia,
they mention that,when it return back,it'll be so far from our Earth.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_ISON

 

[Orionblamblam]

the three religions on our world,

Asatru, Forn Sed and Theodism. All the others are clearly heretical blasphemies perpetrated by Loki as a joke.

so what to do ?.

Get likkered up, have some bacon and party down.

That, or steamroll the whackjob anti-nuke activists and nanny/welfare statists and transfer the government funds currently being used to keep the unproductive comfortable and develop a crash interplanetary colonization program. When Ragnarok comes and a 20-mile-wide asteroid plows into Earth, you want to have a thriving colony watching from Mars (and the moon, and Vesta, and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn...). A century later they come back to Earth and re-seed it with life.

Of course, if you have a successful Martin colony when the dust cloud from Asteroid Fenrir blots out the sun on Earth, the Martians can still get likkered up, have some bacon and party down.

 

[Mat Parry]

Agree with the urgent need. However, I doubt many of us are productive in the context of a crash interplanetary colonisation programme. I know that I am not!

 

[GTX]

Personally, having comet or asteroid predicted to hit Earth in something like 20 - 30yrs would be a good thin in my view. What better thing to focus world attention (as opposed to petty domestic issues) and to supercharge our space capabilities. Of course the negative view is that our collective inability to deal with human enhanced Climate Change and pollution doesn't exactly engender confidence. Mind you, maybe the 'gun to the head' style will work…and if it doesn't, then maybe we need the 'bullet'...

 

[GTX]

Agree with the urgent need. However, I doubt many of us are productive in the context of a crash interplanetary colonisation programme. I know that I am not!

I'm willing to take the challenge...

 

[Mat Parry]

A fair point, I suppose parts of my employment could be useful, indirectly, for colonisation... Hell I'd do it for free as long as it didn't interfere with my current method of generating cash to put food on the table.

 

[Avimimus]

The problem with colonisation missions is that controlled artificial environments tend to lead to single evolutionary optima (conductive to inbreeding) and the non-equilibrial nature of ecological systems means that you need a very large surface areas to sustain biological stability.

These findings are all fairly recent (last 30 years in biology) and haven't had time to propagate into the aerospace engineering / space exploration community - but we will need something more along the lines of world-ships.

So, you'd need to go beyond a small surface base - something like automatically self-maintaining caverns stretching for hundreds of kilometres beneath the surface.

 

[GTX]

Result: we don't do colonisation on the small ;D

 

[Justo Miranda]

Please read "The Cosmic Winter" by Victor Clube and Bill Napier
-"The Nemesis Affair" by David M.Raup
-"The Great Dying" by Kenneth J. Hsü

 

[Orionblamblam]

Result: we don't do colonisation on the small ;D

Indeed. While initial colonies would be enclosed "camps," the end goal would be to remake essentially the entire accessible universe into *our* image. Mars can be terraformed. Venus can be terraformed. The Moon can be terraformed (though requiring substantial upkeep). Saturn can be terraformed via the supra-mundane approach. Jupiter, probably not... but far enough down the road it can be stripped for parts and its moons scattered. And of course artificial worlds can be built with surface areas many times greater than measly old Earth, without even having to resort to materials with virtually magical structural properties.

In the mean time, of course, comets and asteroids would have to be diverted from impact trajectories. Preferably, diverted into high Earth orbit, where nations, corporations and even individuals will be able to strip mine them and make *buckets* of money. See an incoming impactor not as a threat, but as an opportunity to get *rich.*

 

[Triton]

Result: we don't do colonisation on the small ;D

Indeed. While initial colonies would be enclosed "camps," the end goal would be to remake essentially the entire accessible universe into *our* image. Mars can be terraformed. Venus can be terraformed. The Moon can be terraformed (though requiring substantial upkeep). Saturn can be terraformed via the supra-mundane approach. Jupiter, probably not... but far enough down the road it can be stripped for parts and its moons scattered. And of course artificial worlds can be built with surface areas many times greater than measly old Earth, without even having to resort to materials with virtually magical structural properties.

In the mean time, of course, comets and asteroids would have to be diverted from impact trajectories. Preferably, diverted into high Earth orbit, where nations, corporations and even individuals will be able to strip mine them and make *buckets* of money. See an incoming impactor not as a threat, but as an opportunity to get *rich.*

Are you joking? Do you intend to relocate the 8.7 million (give or take 1.3 million) estimated species on Earth? How can anyone imagine that a terraformed planet is in anyway an equivalent, or better replacement, to the Earth?

 

[Triton]

Personally, having comet or asteroid predicted to hit Earth in something like 20 - 30yrs would be a good thin in my view. What better thing to focus world attention (as opposed to petty domestic issues) and to supercharge our space capabilities. Of course the negative view is that our collective inability to deal with human enhanced Climate Change and pollution doesn't exactly engender confidence. Mind you, maybe the 'gun to the head' style will work…and if it doesn't, then maybe we need the 'bullet'...

Hunh? Our impending doom is a good thing because we'll all pull together and advance space capabilities? :

 

[GTX]

See an incoming impactor not as a threat, but as an opportunity

Exactly.

 

[GTX]

Are you joking? Do you intend to relocate the 8.7 million (give or take 1.3 million) estimated species on Earth? How can anyone imagine that a terraformed planet is in anyway an equivalent, or better replacement, to the Earth?

Who said anything about having to relocate enmasse? By becoming a true spacefaring/multi-planet species we don't have all our' eggs in one basket' and are also more capable of deflecting/avoiding such threats

Hunh? Our impending doom is a good thing because we'll all pull together and advance space capabilities? :

Its only going to be "our doom" if we give up and wait whilst praying...the alternative is to take it as a global 'kick in the pants' to start thinking big!

 

[Justo Miranda]

Please see "Inherit the Stars" by James Patrick Hogan 1977

Result: we don't do colonisation on the small ;D

Indeed. While initial colonies would be enclosed "camps," the end goal would be to remake essentially the entire accessible universe into *our* image. Mars can be terraformed. Venus can be terraformed. The Moon can be terraformed (though requiring substantial upkeep). Saturn can be terraformed via the supra-mundane approach. Jupiter, probably not... but far enough down the road it can be stripped for parts and its moons scattered. And of course artificial worlds can be built with surface areas many times greater than measly old Earth, without even having to resort to materials with virtually magical structural properties.

In the mean time, of course, comets and asteroids would have to be diverted from impact trajectories. Preferably, diverted into high Earth orbit, where nations, corporations and even individuals will be able to strip mine them and make *buckets* of money. See an incoming impactor not as a threat, but as an opportunity to get *rich.*

Are you joking? Do you intend to relocate the 8.7 million (give or take 1.3 million) estimated species on Earth? How can anyone imagine that a terraformed planet is in anyway an equivalent, or better replacement, to the Earth?

 

[hesham]

Hi all,


my wish is that not be the end,and may be the God still safe to us,a fulfilling life.

 

[Triton]

I object to the idea that a comet or asteroid impact within the next twenty to thirty years is a good thing. I want other drivers for the creation of a space transportation infrastructure.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Are you joking?

Nope.

Do you intend to relocate the 8.7 million (give or take 1.3 million) estimated species on Earth?

Many of them, yeah.

How can anyone imagine that a terraformed planet is in anyway an equivalent, or better replacement, to the Earth?

By using their brains.

How many species are native to, say, Australia? All 8.7 million? How about Britain? Madagascar? Hawaii? North America? Those places seemed to get along just fine with far fewer than the full load of species. If Mars winds up with 3.2 million species, I think it'll do just fine.

The Earth *will* get trashed, sooner or later. At the very least the sun will cook it to a cinder in 500 million to a billion years. Is it your preference that humanity simply let *every* species die, and to let the universe remain sterile, simply because saving *every* species might be kinda hard?

 

[Orionblamblam]

I object to the idea that a comet or asteroid impact within the next twenty to thirty years is a good thing. I want other drivers for the creation of a space transportation infrastructure.

Oh, I dunno. From a philosophical point of view, I like the idea. This crystalized for me back around Saturnalia, 2004, when asteroids 2004 MN4 (aka Apophis) started hitting the news. At the time, it was looking not impossible that it might plow into Earth in 2036... 32 years in the future. At about a thousand feet in diameter, it masses something like 40,000,000 tons... a big rock, but not a Dinosaur Killer. It would wipe out a country and trash the environment for a bit, probably bring civilization to its knees. But it was also far enough out, and "small" enough, that mankind could *easily* prevent the impact. Even if it took twenty years to get the mission in place, it'd still leave ten years to get it done.

So, what did we have: a possible source of DOOM, but a doom we can do something about if we are smart and non-lazy. Well, what would our options be?
1) Sit back and wait for Odin to come riding in to our rescue.
1A) Odin rides in. Yay. We're saved.
1B) Odin doesn't ride in. D'oh. We're doomed.
2) We go take care of it ourselves
2A) We're successful. Yay, us.
2B) We fail. D'oh.
3) We squabble and fingerpoint and duck responsibility.
3A) D'oh.
3B) D'oh.

This would have been a test humanity *could* pass. But if it chose not to... then perhaps we as a species *deserve* to go the way of some dumbass who decides on a dare to go stand in front of traffic or play Russian Roulette or ignore that smell of smoke coming from the basement or make the beast with two backs with random strangers in the middle of the AIDS epidemic or not evacuate from the shoddily constructed house in the path of the Category Eleven hurricane. Monumentally stupid behavior has obvious and virtually inevitable consequences.

The sooner/bigger the impact risk, the more difficult the interception mission. But something a lot bigger and closer than Apophis can be conceivably diverted, so long as humanity chooses to do so.

And if humanity takes up the challenge and succeeds... then we as a species will come out *awesome.* Let's say the threat is so dire that whole national economies get diverted to the effort. Well, hell... a five-year effort that turns the US FedGuv budget from Social Security, Medicare and a little bit of Military into a whole lot of Space Launch would be better for *everybody.* Kick *everybody* currently on unemployment insurance and EBT off unemployment insurance and EBT and tell them that if they want to eat they'd better get on the work crews... holy Hel, that alone would be worth the risk of impact!

 

[sferrin]

I object to the idea that a comet or asteroid impact within the next twenty to thirty years is a good thing. I want other drivers for the creation of a space transportation infrastructure.

Good luck with that. Hell, I doubt even the asteroid impact would do it. You honestly think that if it were predicted to land in Iowa that China or Russia would lift a finger? Please. Hell, even the lame government we have now wouldn't do anything unless it meant they got to throw billions to their cronies over pie-in-the-sky.

 

[Triton]

I object to the idea that a comet or asteroid impact within the next twenty to thirty years is a good thing. I want other drivers for the creation of a space transportation infrastructure.

Good luck with that. Hell, I doubt even the asteroid impact would do it. You honestly think that if it were predicted to land in Iowa that China or Russia would lift a finger? Please. Hell, even the lame government we have now wouldn't do anything unless it meant they got to throw billions to their cronies over pie-in-the-sky.

Oh really? Wow, that's pretty cynical.

 

[gtg947h]

Hunh? Our impending doom is a good thing because we'll all pull together and advance space capabilities? :

"Depend upon it, Sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully." -Samuel Johnson

Look what happened from 1961-1969--and that was just a political threat. An existential one should be good for quite a bit more.

Unfortunately, there will be too many people who sit on their hands or who will think we somehow "deserve it"

 

[sferrin]

I object to the idea that a comet or asteroid impact within the next twenty to thirty years is a good thing. I want other drivers for the creation of a space transportation infrastructure.

Good luck with that. Hell, I doubt even the asteroid impact would do it. You honestly think that if it were predicted to land in Iowa that China or Russia would lift a finger? Please. Hell, even the lame government we have now wouldn't do anything unless it meant they got to throw billions to their cronies over pie-in-the-sky.

Oh really? Wow, that's pretty cynical.

Zero's performance thus far pretty much bares it out.

 

[Abraham Gubler]

If Hollywood has taught us anything else, and it hasn't, its that some plucky hero will save the day at the last moment possibly with some self sacrifice and most certainly with buildings getting blown up. But truly I think the zombies will get us all before the comet does.

 

[hesham]

Hi all,


I hope our mercy God save us when it return back at 21/3/2014.

 

[Avimimus]

Although if God saves us using orbits - it is an action consistent with Einstein or Spinoza's God more than that of most personal Gods...

The really frightening objects are extra-solar. They could have high velocities (imparting a lot of damage for their size) and be totally unpredictable. Of course, higher velocities make it less likely that they will actually be effected by gravity enough to hit on the first pass.

 

[Hobbes]

Why are we talking about this? ISON has disintegrated. There's not enough left to damage Earth, AND the rubble is on its way out of the solar system, never to be seen again.

 

[sferrin]

That's what they want you to believe. :-X

 

[hesham]

Why are we talking about this? ISON has disintegrated. There's not enough left to damage Earth, AND the rubble is on its way out of the solar system, never to be seen again.

Hi Hobbes,


if that's true,so Thank you our mercy God.

 

[Arjen]

Hubblesite: Comet ISON is still dead as of December 18, 2013.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Why are we talking about this? ISON has disintegrated. There's not enough left to damage Earth,

God's ways are mysterious. He might miracle it back into existence and smack it into Earth as a joke or as a drunken bet with Satan.

Once you accept miracles as a real thing, you really should live in perpetual fear that Anything Could Happen And Probably Will.

 

[sferrin]

Once you accept miracles as a real thing, you really should live in perpetual fear that Anything Could Happen And Probably Will.

Murphy must have been a religious man.

 

[Orionblamblam]

Once you accept miracles as a real thing, you really should live in perpetual fear that Anything Could Happen And Probably Will.

Murphy must have been a religious man.

A religious outlook that expects the deities to be capricious, inconsistent, generally malevolent and basically *insane* is more in accord with reality than a view that holds that there's an invisible sky buddy who loves you and is merciful.

 

[GTX]

Maybe the Vikings are onto something and we should pay heed...

 

[Orionblamblam]

That seems to be just a PR stunt by a local group of Viking re-enactors, rather than an actual whackadoodle religiously-based belief of a specific end-date.

You need to have Fimbulwinter first. And while the weenies in the southeast US might think that the end is nigh due to the pittance of snowfall they got this winter, it hardly qualifies.

Now, if a good-sized asteroid smashes down, the results could *easily* be indistinguishable from Fimbulwinter. A wolf will swallow the sun (the gray dust cloud), and a three-year winter seems entirely possible. *Then* comes the spectacle of Ragnarok...

 

[Colonial-Marine]

I'd rather have a zombie apocalypse, primarily because you have something to do vs an comet hitting the planet. Or maybe an alien invasion.

 

[Orionblamblam]

I'd rather have a zombie apocalypse...

Already underway. But darned if you don't get in trouble if ya pop 'em in the noggin.

 

[CJGibson]

To paraphrase Ordell Robbie

"Fissure volcanism, the very best there is. When you absolutely, positively, got to kill every m-----f----- on the Earth; accept no substitutes."

Chris