COMAC C929 (ex CRAIC CR929)

[Ainen]

C929 is going quite well without Russia, entire production lines are being built right now for rollout by 2029/2030, front fuselage section is scheduled for delivery next year or in 2028. CJ-2000A recently completed full power static tests and could be certified as soon as 2030, though first flight will likely still be with improved Trent 7000s but unlike C919, C929 will likely be certified from the start with both domestic and RR engine options.

From (worth at least consideration, it was by people directly involved in the project) rumors, until 2022, very little was actually done on it on the Chinese side.
Since then, at least in public, nothing new really appeared. Same model and mockup, not even the last one.

IMO, Russia now has little place within the C929 ecosystem as China now as the experience and technology to build subsystems competitive with the latest western designs fully in house.

It's the case. But there is a risk factor(background is moderate C909 production and somewhat struggling C919 program), and lack of visible progress on C929 specifically.
COMAC sadly isn't exactly Huawei.

 

[Tomboy]

From (worth at least consideration, it was by people directly involved in the project) rumors, until 2022, very little was actually done on it on the Chinese side.
Since then, at least in public, nothing new really appeared. Same model and mockup, not even the last one.

It's the case. But there is a risk factor(background is moderate C909 production and somewhat struggling C919 program), and lack of visible progress on C929 specifically.

There's much going on behind the scene, not much made public via news reports (Atleast in the English speaking world, AFAIK quite a bit was said every now and then in the Chinese side) but is public info such as tenders for third phase C929 support and logistics.
Entire logistics and production lines are being built this year, unlike with what was rumored, the Russians are not providing the composite wings, it's all fully in house as seen above with assembly lines for the composite main wing being built. There isn't much to suggest they won't meet their claim of rollout by 2030 so far, in fact I would even say they are on track to beat that deadline by a bit.

AFAIK, anyhow prior to 2022 there wasn't much done overall anyways, the project hasn't even entered detailed design phase yet and was still in basic layout design and verification phase.

As for the C919 program, it really depends how they want to take it. CXF is currently in the assembly phase and could be ready for rollout as soon as late this year. If they just decide to go with CXF and ditch all western suppliers, production could foreseeably scale up pretty fast in the near future but that'll also mean more roadblocks for getting EASA type certificate or they could go with mixed approach by filling domestic orders with CXF and exports with current C919 and suppliers.

 

[Ainen]

Entire logistics and production lines are being built this year, unlike with what was rumored, the Russians are not providing the composite wings, it's all fully in house as seen above with assembly lines for the composite main wing being built. There isn't much to suggest they won't meet their claim of rollout by 2030 so far, in fact I would even say they are on track to beat that deadline by a bit.

Frankly speaking, rollout by 2030 corresponds quite well to the actual 100% Chinese program, more or less, beginning anew in 2022. But it'll keep all the same risks - it's a first attempt at its own widebody, much harder/riskier than C919 (there is no Tianjin reference).

As for the C919 program, it really depends how they want to take it. CXF is currently in the assembly phase and could be ready for rollout as soon as late this year. If they just decide to go with CXF and ditch all western suppliers, production could foreseeably scale up pretty fast in the near future but that'll also mean more roadblocks for getting EASA type certificate or they could go with mixed approach by filling domestic orders with CXF and exports with current C919 and suppliers.

The problem is both urgency and lack of urgency, as you indeed describe it.
Things sort of work, and Western supplies sort of come - it's ZTE all over, even with forced indigenization.

"Russian" C929 ultimately didn't die due to workshare disagreements or anything, it died due to not a single bright head up in the management seriously considering that RR engines have any risk. Neither in China NOR Russia.
No, seriously, even after things as basic as composite fiber got cut off years before for MS-21 right until 02.2022.

 

[martinbayer]

As a proud Boeing employee and (pseudo) communist antagonist, I'm having a sprite vodka right now...

 

[Tomboy]

The problem is both urgency and lack of urgency, as you indeed describe it.
Things sort of work, and Western supplies sort of come - it's ZTE all over, even with forced indigenization.

This is a common complaint with COMAC right now, though AFAIK atleast it seems leadership learned some of their lesson with C919 by having domestic options being developed concurrently for C929 instead of relying purely on JVs and western suppliers. So ideally it should be on paper "sanction proof" as it'll be certified from the very start with domestic components/subsystems as an option.

Though, if it really has to come to that, I wonder how they are going to deal with getting flight/type certificates for international flights which I assume is one of the major usages for 787/A350 class airliner. It could be possible by 2035 Chinese softpower would extend to the point where most other countries recognize CAAC certificates or maybe they could work something out with EASA post certification of C919.

 

[TwoTribes]

From (worth at least consideration, it was by people directly involved in the project) rumors, until 2022, very little was actually done on it on the Chinese side.
Since then, at least in public, nothing new really appeared. Same model and mockup, not even the last one.

It's the case. But there is a risk factor(background is moderate C909 production and somewhat struggling C919 program), and lack of visible progress on C929 specifically.
COMAC sadly isn't exactly Huawei.

2024 News: The first mid-fuselage will be delivered in 2027. Although there is a report that it has already been delayed.

 

[flateric]

For historical reference, November 2018, Gate 2 crossing

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