Blue Streak orbital whatifs: 1956 - 1972

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Archibald

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There are so many alternate histories, related to the Blue Streak... so let's have some fun.
Basic rule of thumb:
- all the POD listed are independant from each other
- Blue Streak needs a second stage
- But it can't weight more than 16 000 kg otherwise it crushes the delicate balloon tank structure underneath

Soooo...

1955-59: Blue Streak + Black Knight + a 1-ton reconnaissance satellite (yes, the RAE thought about it: months before Sputnik !)
= Black Prince. With an optimized HTP stage 2: 14 000 kg, isp 250 seconds. This could get more than 2000 pounds to orbit.

1961: Blue Streak + Veronique / Coralie - the french only. No German, no ELDO, no Europa.

1966: the LH2 option: ELDO-B1. Once again, a 14 000 kg second stage but this time, with LOX-LH2 : HM-4 + RZ-20.

1972: Blue Streak - Centaur, since they were related through Atlas.

1973: Europa F12 with the Symphonie satellites.
 
Here's a possible scenario merging a few of these PODs.

1957: after Sputnik, the British government listen this guy from the RAE and Black Prince is a go. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desmond_King-Hele
First flight planned for 1960- something. Out of Black Knight the british creates an optimal second stage for Blue Streak : 2 meters diameter and 14000 kg heavy.

1960, April: Blue Streak canned, Black Prince threatened. The British Government decides to hire the French as partner.

1961: the French agree, for a solid-fuel third stage. They add that a switch to LOX-LH2 should be done ASAP.

1963 Early HM-4 and RZ-20 works are brought together, in the shape of a 3 m diameter, 12 000 kg second stage for Blue Streak. This provides truly impressive throw weight to orbit.

1968: after many failures, delays and financial trouble the anglo-french now have a working Blue Streak / hydrolox launcher... not too far removed from the Atlas Centaurs sending Surveyor probes to the Moon.
 
Basically, to deliver something to orbit Blue Streak needs a second stage: no more than 14 000 kg in weight.

There are exactly 3 possible options; before a switch to LOX/LH2 circa 1966, think of ELDO B1.

Option 1 : H2O2 / kerosene - from Black Knight

Option 2 : storable propellants - from the French : Veronique & Diamant

Option 3 : solid-fuel, also from the french: their ballistic missiles.

Whatever the propellants, all of them are in a 250 - 270 second specific impulse ballpark. And with the same mass, payload to orbit is broadly similar: 1 metric ton; 2200 pounds.
 
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For what it's worth my wish list was...
  • Black Prince Mk 1 = Blue Streak + Black Knight
  • Black Prince Mk 2 = Blue Streak + Black Arrow
  • Black Prince Mk 3 = New 1st Stage with 4 RZ.2 + New 2nd Stage with one RZ.2 + New 3rd Stage with one RZ.20.
Black Prince Mk 3 was a launcher in the Ariane 1 class, but it was in service before 1970 instead of before 1980 and would be followed by Black Prince Mks 4, 5 & 6 (which were in the same class as Arianes 2, 3 and 4 respectively) during the course of the 1970s.
 
ELDO Europa rocket was mess: missing prime contractor, political meddling, technical failure do lack of communication.

ESA Ariane rocket was success because, Aerospacial Prime contractor, no political meddling, good communication.
Had ELDO better begin and someone with authority as leader, things could have different.
Like de Havilland as prime contractor on Europa rocket and put english as main language for communication...
 
The Blue streak + Super-Veronique imagined as proposed at the interministerial comitee of May 23 1960, with the dimensions of Super Veronique based on the first stage of the SEREB May 18 1960 Proposal.

Third stage imagined as either derived from the 800mm ⌀ Mammouth Block that'd later be used on Agathe and Topaze, or derived from the Bristol Siddeley proposal of a PR.38 powered HTP-Kerozene 54 in. ⌀ Black Prince third stage.

Since that later third stage had some similarities with the Black Arrow S2, I thought giving it the Black Arrow/Diamant BP4 fairing would look good.


1694106938281.jpeg

Just imagining what a "minimum" 1960 Franco-British launcher could look like. Each individual components could be ready by 1964-1965, from there, maybe ELDO B could be proposed?
 
Amen to that, bro ! Didn't knew about that Veronique proposal. If Black Knight --- Black Prince, then, how about Prince Noir for a name ? "noir" exists in english, but is a very specific term for detective stories turned bad. "neo noir".
Also Edward Prince Noir was a Hundred years war offpsring no ?

Quaerere Caelis

Something must be done -This is something, therefore we must do it The origins of one of the most famous projects in of the 20th Century are, like so much in history, an odd series of accidents, flavoured with national pride, economics and the quest for ever better weapons. Despite a...
www.alternatehistory.com

If Black Anvil is too much, maybe ELDO-B1 could be a more reasonable anglo-french space project ? Note that a Blue Streak + "14 tons hydrolox stage" could orbit almost 4 metric tons : enough for a Gemini capsule.

Alternatively: Surveyor robotic probes to the Moon. For the record: Concorde cost $2.8 billion, 9 times less than Apollo $25 billion. I have seen Surveyor costs somewhere on the Internet... $469 million !
"Surveillant" anybody ?

9.81*280*ln((92000+14000+4000*)/(9200+14000+4000))+9.81*466*ln((14000+4000)/(1400+4000)) = 9342 m/s

(*this is a Gemini capsule, baby !)


 
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I love "The selene project" because it is the definite story of the anglo-french succeeding space program, in place of Concorde. Still the author goes "all out" for the anglo-french to replace Apollo, and on a shoestring budget.
What remains to be written is a more "reasonable" timeline where, with or without Concorde, the anglo-french successfully pull out, first an Europa I, then an ELDO-B1.
This means: two-third of an Atlas Centaur, by 1967. And with an Atlas-Centaur, a very interesting space program could happen - either manned spaceflight or robotic lunar landers.
Main issue is finding the money and this is why I'm thinking about Concorde big pot of money: $2.8 billion is nothing to sneeze at. Outside Apollo, the bulk of NASA lunar robotics / manned spaceflight (Mercury / Gemini) cost between a few hundred million dollars and $2 billion.
www.planetary.org

How much did the Apollo program cost?

A rich data set tracking the costs of Project Apollo, free for public use. Includes unprecedented program-by-program cost breakdowns, facilities…
www.planetary.org www.planetary.org



Most expensive program not Apollo was Skylab: and at $2.5 billion, it still "fits" Concorde expense. Hey, that's a space station !

So, while Concorde cost only 1/9th the money spent on Apollo, for that sum the anglo-french could still mount a rather sexy space program, turning the space race into a three players, not two.

One number I would need is the cost of the Europa I rocket: 1963-1973. How much did ELDO spent on the doomed rocket ? The europeans had a weird currency called MAU "Million Accounting Unit".


Seems Europa at some point cost 626 MAU - how much 1960's dollars is that, I have no clue !

books.google.fr

The Early Development of the Telecommunications Satellite Programme in ESRO (1965-1971)

books.google.fr

Seems that MAU thing was roughly 1 to 1.2 dollars. Interesting, that would make cost of Europa I at less than $1 billion. Which makes some sense, as the British military had already paid The Biggest Expense: Blue Streak, obviously. The flawed Coralie and Astris couldn't cost a lot of millions... probably a few dozen millions, a hundred max.
 
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Some costs in 1960's dollars

Lunar robotics:
Ranger: $170 million
Lunar Orbiter: $200 million
Surveyor: 470 million

(seems Centaur cost to allow Atlas to drop Surveyor to the Moon surface was in a $300 million ballpark - https://books.google.fr/books?id=HD...entaur"" development cost ""million "&f=false )

Manned spaceflight
Mercury: $280 million
Gemini: $1.3 billion
Skylab: $2.5 billion
Apollo landings: $25 billion

Concorde: $2.8 billion

Europa II: $ 700 million (626 MAU *1 or 1.2 would be $751 million)

Ariane 1 ended at the same place: $700 million.
books.google.fr

New Scientist

New Scientist magazine was launched in 1956 "for all those men and women who are interested in scientific discovery, and in its industrial, commercial and social consequences". The brand's mission is no different today - for its consumers, New Scientist reports, explores and interprets the...
books.google.fr
 
Archibald said:
Some costs in 1960's dollars

Lunar robotics:
Ranger: $170 million
Lunar Orbiter: $200 million
Surveyor: 470 million

(seems Centaur cost to allow Atlas to drop Surveyor to the Moon surface was in a $300 million ballpark - https://books.google.fr/books?id=HD_Yq7en75IC&pg=PA18803&dq="atlas+centaur""+development+cost+""million+"&hl=fr&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi495mh0pqBAxVkSKQEHbaZAwQQ6AF6BAgMEAI#v=onepage&q="atlas centaur"" development cost ""million "&f=false )

Manned spaceflight
Mercury: $280 million
Gemini: $1.3 billion
Skylab: $2.5 billion
Apollo landings: $25 billion

Concorde: $2.8 billion

Europa II: $ 700 million (626 MAU *1 or 1.2 would be $751 million)

Ariane 1 ended at the same place: $700 million.
books.google.fr

New Scientist

New Scientist magazine was launched in 1956 "for all those men and women who are interested in scientific discovery, and in its industrial, commercial and social consequences". The brand's mission is no different today - for its consumers, New Scientist reports, explores and interprets the...
books.google.fr
Click to expand...

Until 1968, 1 MAU ≃ 1 USD ≃ 0.36 £ ≃ 5 New Francs. After 1968 and the gold pool collapse, it varied more but was roughly under 1.2 USD through the end of ELDO.

ELDO's original program (1961) had a 196 MAU (£70M) ceilling , 151 MAU had been expended by the end of 1964, 278 MAU by the end of 1966 and 383 MAU by Mid-1968. The ceilling was increased to 335 MAU in Late 1965, and increased to 626 MAU in July 1 966, this ceilling, which included Europa I and II would be confirmed in the following years, although the share between countries would change.
1694209737004.png

There was some fudging to make it fit, notably, France agreed to pay 25 MAU on national funding for Guyana infrastructure constructions related to Europa 2, Italy and Belgium also agreed to take some PAS and Ground tracking funding on their national budget. In 1970 an increase beyond the ceilling was authorised, although I variously see 15 MAU and 50 MAU. 128 MAU were also attributed to Europa III but i don't know how much were spent.

Overal ~$700M Europa development cost (I guess a bit more if you include all expenses, still under $800M) + $150M attributed to Europa III (some carried to Ariane I) seems to be a decent estimate. It all certainly fits under a billion dollar no matter how ones look at it.


As for the moon, what were some of the 60s project (separate from Apollo) about it?
CNES was looking onto it circa 1963-1964 for their planning of the 70s, and there was the first Franco-Russian project in parallel of ROSEAUX, but that was quickly dropped, what else?
 
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It's amazing to think Europa cost merely one-third of Concorde - $0.9 billion versus $2.7 billion. Why was Concorde that expensive ?
 
Archibald said:
It's amazing to think Europa cost merely one-third of Concorde - $0.9 billion versus $2.7 billion. Why was Concorde that expensive ?
Click to expand...
Initial Blue streak cost are excluded (£60-80M by Q2 1960 according to C.N.H's book, probably a little bit more to the start of ELDO at £10M per annum, that's still over $200 millions) , as are part of the actual cost of Woomera and Kourou, Europa also didn't go through completion (several launches were cancelled, the cost for a launch a year was ~25 MAU in 1972-1973 according to John Krige's history, total depassment to completion was estimated to be a good additional 100 MAU in 1966 compared to what was eventually paid, it probably would have been more) so it's hard to compare.

Concorde was just a larger, heavier plane (pretty sure equal weight planes are naturally always more expensive to develop than rockets) that actually flew, entered service, carried people and had unique capabilities, whereas Europa I/II were some of the worst rockets of their time (arguably worse than the early Long March) with little to no actual use in the 70s without further improvement, $1 billion all included is already too much for that.
 
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An interesting aspect of ELDO B is that it would tie SEPR (later SEP) and Rolls Royce on Cryogenic engine production with the 60kN HM4-RZ.20 derivative, that axis would exist instead of a Franco-German one. It'd be interesting if that collaboration lasted beyond Blue Streak. Imagine an Ariane 5 with a Franco-British Vulcain.

I think an important part of making a recognisible Europa succeed is to have at least *one* orbital success before Labour's election, because only the Douglas Holmes government could even agree (and it would already be a stretch, although remember the Black Arrow was approved a mere month before government change) on some ambitious ELDO A/Europa I successor. The later experience of ELDO did show that despite the bickering, the british *did* stick to Europa, their minimum interpretation sure, but they did, just like they stuck to Black Arrow. If there can be some commitment to ELDO B or an equivalent (Europa with boosters) by the previous government, they would probably stick by it, bound by the International agreements, and the whole program may eventually stumble upon an effective launcher.


Blue streak was succesfuly tested in 1964, The first launch's failure wouldn't have happened if it had been mounted with a second stage or a dummy of one - this would have taken more time, but that time may have been won if the initial ELDO negociations had been shorter, particularly in the context of bilateral Franco-British cooperation.

Emeraude (which would have to be downscaled and Air launched) and P10 (S112/SEP P901), the two candidates for an early French Blue Streak rocket S2, both first fired in Summer 1964, but they both were extremely unreliable at first (Emeraude got fixed quicker than the M1/S2 boosters), that timeline is way too tight to do anything before October 1964. I don't think the timeline of the Force de frappe's boosters can be much improved, however the liquid booster probably can...
The most efficient POD IMO is to have Veronique AGI approved when it was first proposed, in 1955, saving considerable time and making the launch for the AGI, which makes the same impression it did on De Gaulle in March 1959 almost a year earlier (and even maybe on the last governments and generals of the 4th republic), making him confident of the French Industry's capability to develop missiles alone, and saving a lot of time by not looking toward the Americans for the ballistic missiles as they did in 1958-1959. This probably can significantly speed up France's Liquid (storable) propulsion efforts, in time to propose a mature Second stage for Blue Streak that can fly reliably in 1964.

Without going as far, maybe a better funded, smaller, liquid-pressurised (thus avoiding some of the failure modes of Emeraude) Emeraude could barely fit the timeline? Emeraude was only defined in fall 1960 (I've seen september and october equally), If there are definitive Franco-British agreement before that point (which as Mentionned above, had been happening since Spring 1960), it could be influenced by it, and be properly used for the dual purpose of Missile research and ELDO.

But maybe you are right with your proposal Archibal, and that the "minimum" ELDO rocket should use a British second stage - black knight I guess - and a French solid third stage, and that trying to make a French S2 fit in such tight timeline is a lost cause. But this changes a lot of the organisation and cost share of ELDO or a Franco-British bilateral cooperation, I'm not sure this was ever proposed?

Also what would be the name for a Franco-British launcher? Entente?
 
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Archibald said:
Here's a possible scenario merging a few of these PODs.

1957: after Sputnik, the British government listen this guy from the RAE and Black Prince is a go. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desmond_King-Hele
First flight planned for 1960- something. Out of Black Knight the british creates an optimal second stage for Blue Streak : 2 meters diameter and 14000 kg heavy.

1960, April: Blue Streak canned, Black Prince threatened. The British Government decides to hire the French as partner.

1961: the French agree, for a solid-fuel third stage. They add that a switch to LOX-LH2 should be done ASAP.
Click to expand...
Thinking about it.


If the british decide to make an enlarged Black Knight early (Probably 54 to 72 in. - 1.37 to 1.83m - diameter instead of 2m, tbh), then they would naturally look into it as alternatives to Blue streak (1960) and/or Skybolt (1962) as IRBM after their respective cancellations. Whether it becomes an operational vehicle is largely up to Anglo-American relations, but there would probably be substantial work on turning it into an IRBM - including guidance,which would be much improved, and there would probably be military funding, keeping the Second stage of this "black prince", relatively afloat after the Blue Streak IRBM cancellation.

In turn it would affect Franco-British negociations, The french were rather relunctant to commit to a Franco-English BS-derived launcher initially, especially for 50/50 of the funding with minimal french participation, 25% of the cost was the maximum French counter-proposal through the period from what I've read, and they always wanted more continental european involvement to lower cost and British influence.

However the French were also quite interested in guidance and reentry technology, IRL it was in vain, given the Anglo-American origins of Blue Streak, but a Black Knight-derived IRBM (as an alternative to BS/Skybolt) would be fully british and still in study/development by that point , and the French side would at least *think* that there would be more potential for technology transfer.
We know that Force de frappe cooperation was of potential interest to de Gaulle, before (May-June 62) the Nassau agreement, him and his government had proposed to McMillian an Anglo-French deterrent, and some of the litterature suggests this may have been enough to make him accept the British entry into the EEC. This doesn't go nearly as far, but the prospect of technology transfer as well as french involvement adjacent to the British IRBM industry may be enough to persuade the French to better fund this Anglo-French launcher, maybe not enough for a 50/50 collaboration, but maybe enough to offset the lesser French industrial involvement (3rd stage vs 2nd stage) and lack of other continental european partners.

For reference (exchange rate according to https://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/GBPpages.pdf), from H. Moulin and C.N.H's books
All in MillionsNew FrancsPoundDollars ≃ MAU
Fall 1960 Franco-English Proposal (British Estimate)71952145.6
50/50 British demands 1960359.52672.8
1961 British Estimate96770196
1961 50/50 British demands (pre-Strasbourg)4843598
Mid-1961 French ELDO Budget proposal (20%)193,51439.2
Mid-1961 UK ELDO Budget Propsal (25%)24217,549
1st ELDO Preparatory group French budget agreement (23.93%)231.516.7546.9
1st ELDO Preparatory group UK budget agreement (38.79%)375.327.1576.03
November 1961, maximum French backup plan if Italy doesn't participate (26.32%)*254,518.451.5
CRUSADE + 54 in. Black Knight estimate 1964 (Ministry of Aviation)66.354.813.55
Black Arrow dev cost (1964 estimate)138.241028



*Auger plan 1b), 23 millions New Francs more to 1965 included than the alternative.
 
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I have one important question. Before April 1960 cancellation, when was Blue Streak supposed to fly ? (september 1964 was ELDO, don't tell me the British military would take as long ?)
 
Archibald said:
I have one important question. Before April 1960 cancellation, when was Blue Streak supposed to fly ? (september 1964 was ELDO, don't tell me the British military would take as long ?)
Click to expand...

At cancellation, the first flight ready prototype round was in transit to Australia. I understand they expecting to fly within a few months.
 
A fascinating thread. It is right to concentrate on the technical side as the political side is hopeless (any reading of UK and French history in this period shows why).
Could we include West Germany and Italy in the mix. Both had good industrial resources and some innovative ideas. The Saenger reusable vehicle comes to mind.
 

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